TLIAW: La Revolućion Vive!

Interesting. So it's basically a palace coup - one that's ostensibly in favor of the elected president, but one which puts Mejia and his CIA buddies in total control of defense and gives them free rein to conduct a dirty war in the countryside. This is much subtler than I expected - but on the other hand, its very subtlety may be a weakness, because the Nicaraguans who still think they live in a democracy will demand an accounting for the National Guard's conduct. Chamorro will have a hard time responding without making it clear that he's on the military's string.

And so the President is turned into a front for Mejia and his goons... very subtle and sinister indeed.

Not exactly. Mejia is not entirely on-board with the coup itself. Instead, he's leveraging the threat of the coup to place himself on top of the National Guard, and in the good graces of the President himself. The deal will essentially amount to giving the National Guard carte-blanche in the countryside and against the FSLN, with Mejia in charge of security policy. Meanwhile, Chamorro and whoever he picks as Prime Minister will get to run everything outside of that, and the National Guard will stay out of urban areas.

Also, Mejia might be somewhat overplaying his hand. The National Guard has a decent opportunity to coup here, but without an active political crisis, and with another year of Chamorro building up the police as a counterweight, Chamorro may be able to reign them in.

As for how Nicaraguans see the security forces, without the abject tyranny of late-era Somoza, the National Guard might be seen more positively, something more like the Peruvian military during the war against Shining Path than the butchers and monsters of OTL. Democracy and a ceasefire has largely restrained their actions thus far. For at least the wealthy, middle class and some of the poor, the National Guard might be seen as the lesser evil to Marxist guerrillas.

Finally, the Sandinistas are going to have their own set of reactions to a stepped-up counterinsurgency campaign. Some may put down their arms, some may fight on, and some might go a third way.
 
March of the Sandinistas and Honduras

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Somewhere near Murra, Nicaragua
12 December 1977


The border did not really exist out here, among the trees and underbrush. That may have made Omar Cabezas feel better about the direction that the remnants of the FSLN were taking.

The counterinsurgency campaign had come suddenly. Only two months after the new constitution was adopted by a parliamentary vote and validated by overwhelming support in a popular referendum, National Guard forces had struck FLSN positions throughout the country. Equipped with recently delivered U.S. military surplus from Vietnam -including helicopters- the guerrillas were devastated. The FSLN’s fighters, who had built networks among the peasantry, were forced to go into hiding or retreat into the highlands. Many were killed in the initial attacks, although most of the National Directorate escaped unscathed.

Pursued by government forces, the mountain provided both refuge and an advantageous battlefield against the National Guard’s more heavily equipped units. The initial defeat launched a wave of recrimination and accusations. Fonseca, ever the radical, blamed their unpreparedness on ‘defeatism and collaborators among the peasantry’. Jaime Wheelock and his ‘Proletarian’ faction, based in Managua, formally split from the FLSN to form the urban-guerrilla 'Workers’ Revolutionary Front'. Sandinista forces attempted to infiltrate down out of the mountains, but National Guard units defeated column after column.

Yet, between constant ‘search-and-destroy’ missions in the mountains patrols in the foothills and coastal lowlands, and rising casualties, the Guard was overstretched. Chamorro ordered the Guard to focus on its campaign in the highlands, replacing their presence in the countryside with the Nicaraguan National Police. Lightly armed, trained to use the carrot as well as the stick, and accompanied by social workers and state officials, police units moved to protect peasant communities from attacks by either the guerrillas or landowners and their hired thugs. This protection was even extended to union organizers and other political dissidents. The peasantry rewarded the government for its policies: when a snap election was called, Chamorro’s coalition of Conservatives, Christian-democrats and moderate leftists managed to win a narrow majority in the National Assembly.

Still, the war dragged on, and the nearly bankrupt country couldn’t handle the financial strain. In response, Chamorro reached out to the FSLN through back channels, making contact with the National Directorate through guerrilla Joaquín Cuadra’s father, a prominent corporate lawyer. Cuadra became the principal intermediary between the National Directorate and the President’s office. Eventually, a rough plan was worked out. In exchange for amnesty and the release of all captured fighters, the FSLN would lay down its arms and surrender to the Nicaraguan police. The FSLN itself would remain a banned organization, but the fighters would be allowed to participate in politics under a different banner. Facing declining popular support, starvation in the hills and potential military defeat, the National Directorate –after much debate- reluctantly agreed to the deal.

The column continued marching. The men and women were tired; most had not seen their families or friends outside of the group for years. The guerrilla column was their family now; they were a school of fish within the sea of the people. Their rust-tarnished rifles bounced against their backs, food rations in ripped canvas packs. Most wore straw sombreros to protect against the scorching sun, although some wrapped their heads in red or black bandanas.

The split had been as amicable as possible; the Ortega brothers –the principal supporters of the peace deal– promised to provide political cover to ongoing peasant organization and guerrilla training, while Fonseca’s radical faction agreed to limit military operations within the country. More than half of the organization’s remaining fighters had gone with them: Daniel Ortega already talked of organizing a Sandinista political party, using the guerrillas’ tattered rural support networks as a base. The Sandinista National Directorate would continue to exist, meeting secretly whenever possible. The struggle was now dual, with the organization pursuing both ‘democratic and armed popular struggle against feudalism and crypto-fascism’.

Still, many of the guerrillas wanted to fight on, which was why some of them –those who chose not to lay down their arms– were so close to the Honduran border. Fonseca himself had joined them, personally leading a column near the Atlantic coast. The FSLN’s fighters were ‘evacuating’ to Honduras, where the government was weak and the population was ripe for revolution.

After close to an hour of marching, the guerrilla column halted. The sun was high in the sky, and a lucky or watchful Honduran patrol might detect movement. Moreover, they had reached the location of their armed camp. Forward scouts had spent two weeks building shelters and camouflaging them in the dense scrub and forest. Cabezas, a section commander, ordered his men to spread out and find their shelters. Patrols would start later in the day, as would planning for revolutionary activities. The Honduran people tired of their regime, and the forces of popular resistance were on the upswing.

Tucking his bedroll beside a tree root, Cabezas sighed. There was much work to do, and so far away from home.



***



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“Of the successor states to the first Central American federation, Honduras was the least prepared to be an independent republic. The country covered a sizeable expanse of territory by regional standards, but was inhabited by a tiny, dispersed and poor population. Moreover, the country had lackadaisical political leadership, as its elite battled each other for the scraps of power that existed rather than attempting to build a state. The republic’s more powerful neighbours -Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador- repeatedly dominated the weak country, intervening in its politics on a number of occasions during these early decades. For example, Guatemala invaded in 1852, installing a conservative politician in place of the Liberal President Cabañas. While the Honduran military participated in the expulsion of William Walker’s first filibuster in Nicaragua, and executed him after his second attempt to seize power, this time in Honduras itself, external interference did not stop…

Between foreign intervention and related internal strife, Honduras remained an economic and social backwater. Power alternated between the conservative National Party and the Liberal Party, often with coups or brief armed conflicts providing the decisive margin between victory and defeat for one party or another. By 1914, the country’s population was just over half a million people, overwhelmingly concentrated in rural areas and a few mid-sized towns. Most economic activity came from mining, cattle ranching and the export of lumber and tropical hardwoods, although the vast majority of the population remained confined to subsistence agriculture.

All of this changed with the emergence of the banana economy. Demand for bananas in the United States prompted massive investment by the United Fruit Company and other firms into Central American land. The Atlantic coastal lowlands of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua were excellent –and untapped– grounds for new production, close to American ports, with few inhabitants and weak governments that could be bent to the will of the powerful fruit conglomerates. Banana production soared, and brought new revenues for the government along with massive investment in transport and communications infrastructure. Hondurans joined foreign workers on the rapidly expanding banana plantations; while the banana harvest was backbreaking and often-dangerous work, the plantations paid wages several times higher than most other jobs.

Banana production brought many benefits to Honduras, including a new relevance to international affairs. Ports and railroads were built, and for the first time in the country’s history, the state had the resources to pay its employees and begin building a nation. At the same time, the banana companies interfered in the country’s politics even more intensely than Honduras’ neighbours had, overthrowing or eliminating unfriendly politicians and turning the country’s military into their private security force. By 1920, bananas accounted for nearly all of the country’s exports, a situation that would continue through the middle of the twentieth century…

By the beginning of the 1970s, Honduras was still a sleepy backwater, the quintessential ‘banana republic’ derided by Americans and Americanos alike as corrupt, primitive and, worst of all, irrelevant. The country had been ruled on-and-off by military juntas since the 1950s, with periodic resumptions of civilian rule under the old two-party Liberal-National system. The economy had stalled, and the country’s elite grew increasingly corrupt. Attempts at agrarian reform, meant to challenge the power of the banana companies and local land barons as well as spark economic development, faltered in the face of elite obstructionism and corporate pressure. General Oswaldo Lopez, who had been President since 1963, briefly ceded power to a civilian government before retaking control in December 1972. Lopez’s rule was, as before, corrupt and stagnating. Social unrest began to rise, particularly among peasants, as the cost of living rose and rapacious landowners pushed them further into penury.

By the middle of the decade, even Lopez began to recognize brewing social tension. He revived the country’s land reform program, challenging local elites, although he refused to confront the power of the American fruit companies. On 19 April 1975, General Gustavo Álvarez seized power from Lopez after a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation revealed that Lopez had taken bribes in exchange for reducing the countries’ banana export tax. Álvarez sought both to protect the country’s elite from further interference and consolidate the role of the military in enforcing the peace. Álvarez, issuing decrees as Chairman of the ‘Armed Forces Junta for National Reorganization’, dissolved all pre-existing political parties, labour unions and other major social organizations. In emulation of the Guatemalan and Salvadoran military regimes, and seeking to avoid the rise of moderate reformists as in Chamorro’s Nicaragua, Álvarez formed the new, military-controlled Patriotic Republican Party, or Partido Republicano Patriótico (PRP), which would dominate the Honduran political scene in the coming years...

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Heavily rigged elections held the following year awarded the Presidency to Álvarez with 88.4% of the vote, with a similarly dominant position for the PRP in the National Congress. The new president promptly appointed his former junta comrades and powerful civilian allies to senior positions in the government. In the meanwhile, the Honduran military had mounted a campaign of repression targeting peasant associations, the small urban working class, banana worker organizers, and the clandestine Communist Party of Honduras and its various breakaway factions. Over 2000 people were killed, imprisoned or exiled in the first two years of the military government’s rule, including members of the middle class and elite who questioned the new political order. The military and intelligence apparatus began to rapidly expand, with the formation of units such as the infamous Special Battalion 19, charged with protecting the regime and Honduras from ‘revolutionary and Communist subversion’. For those leftists who escaped the government’s grasp, peaceful reform appeared to be a dead letter. Instead, to them the choice became clear: surrender, or revolution…

The Álvarez regime, more than any in Honduran history, pursued a proactive economic development strategy. The regime aggressively promoted foreign investment in a diverse array of industries, providing tax breaks and cheap land for foreign firms willing to invest to Honduras. The government, ruling under a ‘state of siege’ that allowed them to ignore constitutional and legal protections, expropriated huge areas of land, handing them over to large foreign conglomerates and their allies in the elite. Cattle ranching, cotton and coffee production expanded rapidly, and major tax incentives for ‘value-added’ industries meant that slaughterhouses and other processing plants popped up in the country’s major cities. Rail, road, port and airport infrastructure was modernized, and Honduras entered negotiations with El Salvador and Guatemala to revive the Central American Common Market…

While some of the Honduran government’s new spending was financed with higher taxes on banana and coffee exports, the Álvarez regime had to borrow significant sums on international financial markets, often at high interest rates. Desperate for new sources of funds, Álvarez authorized negotiations with an unconventional, if established, player: Colombia’s drug cartels. Under the purview of the Minister of National Defence, General Policarpo Paz García, the military’s air and naval bases became transshipment points for planes full of Colombian cocaine, opium and a small but growing amount of Honduran marijuana. Bureaucrats allowed crates full of ‘Petit Michel bananas’ onto New York, Miami and New Orleans-bound ships, where local crime syndicates would boost them from the docks. In exchange, the Colombian traffickers paid per-kilo fees on their product, and Honduran banks, real estate, agriculture and industry became prime sites for dirty Colombian money…

With Honduras descending further into a morass of corrupt repression, the new Udall administration in Washington -which aimed to fight the Cold War but was suspicious of many of its authoritarian allies throughout the Third World- lobbied the government to put the country back on ‘the path to democracy’. According to former Vice-Presidential Chief of Staff and Congressman Richard Perle’s memoirs, after a January 1978 state visit, Vice-President Henry “Scoop” Jackson told the president that not only was the Honduran government involved with the drug trade “at every level”, the Álvarez regime was a “house of cards.” That March, in the aftermath of the Trujillo Massacre, President Udall suspended military assistance to the Honduran government and expressed ‘grave concern towards the worsening situation’ there.

While these cuts were not even a rounding error in the gargantuan U.S. federal budget, the Honduran military felt the bite immediately, especially as the cuts coincided with a major escalation in guerrilla activity. The government was forced to delay new projects and slash spending to make room for higher military expenditures. Combined with rising unrest in urban areas, the Honduran Civil War was about to begin in earnest…

U. G. Pederson. Banana Republic: A History of Honduras. Cambridge: University of Cambridge Press (2011).
 
Interesting and well written timeline! Will follow!
Did I read wrong or you butterflied away Carter? I hope that somehow the destiny of central america will improve vis a vis otl.
 
Udall and Scoop sound like a more effective duo than Jimmy Carter. Not too liberal, but also not party to Carter's allergic-to-Cold-War-realities idealism.
 
Interesting and well written timeline! Will follow!
Did I read wrong or you butterflied away Carter? I hope that somehow the destiny of central america will improve vis a vis otl.

Thanks! I have butterflied away Carter. The primary could have been close. In this TL, Carter decided not to run (handwavium). Udall fought off a few insurgent candidates before cruising to victory. He picked Scoop Jackson as his VP to gain foreign policy cred and demonstrate that he isn't McGovern Mk.2, while making sure the party platform was sufficiently left-wing. He won with a slightly larger margin in the election by winning his home state of New Mexico.

Udall and Scoop sound like a more effective duo than Jimmy Carter. Not too liberal, but also not party to Carter's allergic-to-Cold-War-realities idealism.

I think so too. Whether or not they can win in 1980, considering the state of the economy, is up for debate though.
 
Chamorro is essentially following the Colombian model of giving former guerrillas a stake in the political system, which is a smart thing to do in both the short and medium term. If he's allowed to stay the course, Nicaragua could end up doing considerably better than OTL.

Honduras, on the other hand... I assume Alvarez will be treated as TTL's Noriega, to be blackmailed by the US when convenient and removed as soon as he becomes inconvenient, but he can do a lot of damage in the meantime.
 
Chamorro is essentially following the Colombian model of giving former guerrillas a stake in the political system, which is a smart thing to do in both the short and medium term. If he's allowed to stay the course, Nicaragua could end up doing considerably better than OTL.

He's giving them a stake, with the assumption that between military defeat and state-building in the countryside, they won't get very far politically. Considering that the Sandinistas are in quite a different position as OTL (they aren't the main resistance group to a near-universally hated regime, they are a leftist guerrilla group fighting an imperfect democratic government led by a popular president), Chamorro might be right in that assumption. Moreover, he's likely to be allowed to 'stay the course'. Outside of hardliners who already hate him and who were beaten back after the constitutional crisis, Chamorro is more the man who made peace and won a war, not a coward and scoundrel.

Still, the Ortegas are good politicians, the FSLN has some rural support networks, and the guerrillas are popular among the youth. Daniel Ortega, given some luck, could become the de-facto leader of Nicaragua's leftists. Also, having the FSLN effectively become a legitimate political organization may make recruitment for guerrilla warfare, particularly among students and youth, that much easier. If and when the FSLN becomes fully involved in the Honduran war, there may be plenty of romantic students and poor Nicaraguan youth (the type who might otherwise turn to gangs) who will run off to the mountains for training and then join the guerrillas fighting a liberation war next door.

Honduras, on the other hand... I assume Alvarez will be treated as TTL's Noriega, to be blackmailed by the US when convenient and removed as soon as he becomes inconvenient, but he can do a lot of damage in the meantime.

Álvarez is already hated by the Udall administration, which may try to depose him sooner rather than later. IOTL though, Álvarez was the commander of Battalion 3-16, the Honduran army's death squad unit. He's a nasty customer with a strong internal intelligence network. As well, by the time that the war really heats up, the administration in Washington could be different. Finally, their neighbours in El Salvador and Guatemala will be more than happy to provide assistance against a Communist insurgency (with a price tag, of course).
 
Foreign Arms

With all that drug money flowing around I bet the Honduran military can buy a lot of things from the Arms markets? How is Cuba and the USSR handling all of this?
 
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Guatemala City, Guatemala
18 September 1979


Manuel Colom Argueta –economist, lawmaker and President of Guatemala– looked out over the city, murky in rain-drenched twilight. His suit, fine Italian wool, was soaked through, but he remained on the roof of the National Palace. Even through rain-fogged glasses, the President could see the outline of Army vehicles at major intersections throughout the city, complementing the half-dozen tanks and troop carriers stationed at the palace gates. Heavily armed soldiers guarded the entrance of the venerable building, waiting for superior officers to arrive. The President had a few remaining minutes to sort out the situation, contemplate what might happen next, and reflect on his short time in office.

It had all seemed so promising. With the death of Somoza in Nicaragua, then the free election of Pedro Chamorro as President, something had reawakened in Central America. The people were tired of decades of self-destruction. They saw a man lead a similar nation forward, without revolution and without repression. Instead, Chamorro struck a third path, between razor-edged capitalism and blunt, bloody, fantastical socialist visions of the future. The generals saw what could come from a democracy, and with the rise of a more moderate military leader in President Kjell Eugenio Laugerud García, the repression eased. With his term set to expire, the clique of generals who ran Guatemala agreed to allow opposition candidates to run for office, as long as they promised to follow electoral rules against ‘supporting insurrection’. With the public on his side, and mass protests after his initial exclusion from the ballot on technical grounds, Colom became the presidential candidate of the Union for Democratic Reform.

With economist and vice-presidential candidate Alberto Fuentes Mohr at his side, the ticket toured the country, promising to restrain the ‘state of siege’ that governed the country, defeat the insurgency through both military force and addressing the problem’s root causes, and push forward moderate economic reforms. While the army managed to rig legislative elections, leaving the united opposition with a minority in the Congress, the presidential vote was overwhelmingly in favour of Colom, ensuring a victory, if one granted grudgingly by the elites.

Colom and his team had immediately gotten to work. Those were heady days, despite the fear of the army and the frustration with their restricted room to manoeuvre. One of the many deals that Colom had had to cut with the generals was to stay out of the counterinsurgency campaign. While he had reduced the powers of the state of siege and the army no longer arbitrarily kidnapped and tortured people in the cities, the countryside was a whole different world. Soldiers still attacked villages in reprisal operations for guerrilla attacks, murdered labour organizers and shook down Maya peasants for everything they had, and Colom was powerless to stop it.

Still, they worked hard, and tried to move the country forward. With a united block of opposition lawmakers and moderate members of the PID willing to work with them on some policies, they passed a bevy of laws. School funding was increased, with the national government providing free lunches and uniforms. Tax incentives for foreign investment and new infrastructure spending aimed to grow the economy. Free rural clinics were opened, although they were placed under the joint mandate of the Ministries of Defence and Health. Along with subsidized maize, these new programs were increasingly hijacked to act as the civilian carrot to the military’s stick in the war against guerrillas and the ever-present Red menace. Colom swallowed his pride and let this go forwards; while he told his cabinet that it was for the greater good, he had many sleepless nights imagining the anguish of peasants refused medical care on the basis of some political slight, real or imagined.

By the first anniversary of his presidency, Colom was tired. Tired of reining his ambitions in, and tired of the impunity and arrogance of the military. It took months of quiet negotiation with the mercurial Revolutionary Party, careful planning, and dissembling to military officers, but on September 15, Guatemala’s Independence Day, Colom announced a land reform program. It was a moderate and gradualist proposal, using state funds to support ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ transactions, and capping individual landholding at 50 acres of prime land for non-export crops and 150 acres for export crops. The banana companies and other foreign landholders would have to either pay an additional surtax on their property or hand over unused land to state control. As Colon declared, the bill’s purpose was to ‘reach towards the future, where social justice and capitalism are one and the same’. When the bill came before Congress, even a few of the PID’s members voted for it.

The army, however, was not pleased, as evidenced by the tanks outside. A string of minor reforms was one thing, but a major political victory for a civilian president who identified with the left was something else entirely. If the marionette strings were not obvious, the generals feared that they might have been cut. Colom had heard whispers of a plot, but in the wake of such a great victory, he had ignored them.

An Army staff car shot through the mist and screeched to a halt in front of the steps. A pair of aides climbed out first and opened umbrellas by the side doors, to shelter the emerging officers from the elements. Colom recognized General Ángel Guevara, General Fernando Lucas, and General Luis Mendoza, who began to stroll towards the palace gates, followed by two unknown men in dark suits: Colom guessed CIA.

The President felt a brush at his shoulder, and turned. Vice-President Alberto Fuentes looked haggard, nervously stroking his greying moustache. He said, in a quiet voice, “Come inside, Manuel. If we are to go to prison, no use in catching pneumonia beforehand.”

Colom turned, and spat. “These fascist bastards. Should we not die like Allende, fighting to the last?”

Fuentes shook his head. “We aren’t socialists. We’re democrats. Do what is good for the nation, and try to save yourself. The country will need men of clean conscience and record in the end, when justice prevails.”

Colom balled up his fists. “I want them to arrest me up here. They can drag me down the stairs kicking and screaming, but I won’t go willingly, Alberto.”

Fuentes smiled sadly. “They’ll shoot you, and your children along with you. Come quietly, they might let us live, or even leave the country.”

Colom closed his eyes, and his shoulders drooped. He turned, and slowly walked towards the stairs, which would take him back inside. Fuentes looked at him, and stood stiff.

“Thank you, Mr. President, for your service.”


***


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NICARAGUA: PRESIDENT WINS REELECTION

MANAGUA — Nicaraguan President Pedro Chamorro won re-election last Sunday, soundly defeating his main opponent in a run-off election ballot, despite indications late in the campaign that his bid for a second term was in trouble.

Chamorro, former editor-in-chief of Nicaragua’s largest newspaper, a long-time opposition figure under the Somoza government, and a member of the country’s political aristocracy, was elected in 1974 in the country’s first free elections. His first term was characterized by a wrenching transition to democracy, political instability and a major crisis over proposed reforms to the country’s constitution.

The president entered the election campaign in a strong position, with endorsements from both his Conservative Party and the Social Christian Party. Early polling showed the president well ahead of his main rival, former general Roberto Martínez Lacayo, of the National Action Party.

But polls narrowed in the later days of the first round of the election, with Gustavo Tablada Zelaya, the leader of the left-wing Nicaraguan Socialist Party, making major gains at the expense of the president. On the night of September 3, however, Chamorro won 49.3% of votes counted, with Martínez in a distant second with 33.1%. Chamorro then strolled to victory in the run-off a week later, winning more than two-thirds of votes cast.

The campaign was dominated by the country’s economic woes and controversy over the government’s recent peace agreement with leftist guerrillas, which included provisions for amnesty in exchange for laying down their weapons. Despite often-harsh rhetoric from Martínez and other right-leaning candidates, Chamorro spoke of national unity in his victory speech from the National Palace.

“Now is the time for Nicaraguans to move forward together, whether left or right, and build the nation,” he said, to a cheering crowd.

In a concession speech to supporters in a nearby hotel, Martínez acknowledged the especially heated campaign and promised to work with the president, but declaring defiantly that he would” defend Nicaragua from Red tyranny to my last breath.”

Third-place finisher Tablada, speaking from a metal workers’ union hall, declared that the election was “a victory for socialism in Nicaragua”, and pledged to work with the new president on mutually agreeable policy.

“We have taken another step down a democratic path towards socialism. The Nicaraguan progressive movement grows stronger every day.”

In legislative elections, the president’s coalition of Christian-democrats and the centrist Conservative Party made gains, seizing several new Senate seats. Talks are currently underway to determine who will be prime minister, along with the makeup of the cabinet.

-The New York Times, 11 September 1978.
 
Oh yes, I'm still reading. I had missed that last update somehow, my bad. Changes to Guatemala, I presume, or is that a military action from OTL?

And Chamorro goes forward- but there's discontent on the right, I see...
 
With all that drug money flowing around I bet the Honduran military can buy a lot of things from the Arms markets? How is Cuba and the USSR handling all of this?

The Honduran military can purchase arms and hire mercenaries, but they're still pretty broke. Honduras is a poor country, the government is spending extravagantly on the military, public works and industrialization (and corruption), and they have to borrow most of that money. Without either debt forgiveness, severe spending cuts or foreign assistance, they won't be able to keep up the pace of public spending.

As for the USSR, they aren't happy to see Somoza replaced by a bourgeois democrat, but they don't have a strong presence in the region. Cuba is quite busy though, especially with the rising guerrilla govement in Honduras...

Oh yes, I'm still reading. I had missed that last update somehow, my bad. Changes to Guatemala, I presume, or is that a military action from OTL?

And Chamorro goes forward- but there's discontent on the right, I see...

No, definitely changes. Colom and Fuentes were moderate center-left opposition politicians IOTL who were both assassinated in 1978. Here, the liberalization that took place under Laugerud continued (due in part to pressure from the Nicaraguan example and from the U.S. government), leading to a semi-free election in 1978. The pact was supposed to be a civilian face on the government and reduced repression in exchange for continued military and landed elite dominance. Instead, Colom went a bit too far, and the hardliners are stepping in. Guatemala will get very bloody.

This will butterfly away Rios Montt's period in office; instead, under a democratic government, he stayed a Pentecostal evangelical preacher with political ambitions and connections to the populist wing of the military establishment. He'll get up to... interesting and fun things during this timeline.

As for Nicaragua, the main challenge to Chamorro still comes from the right, but the left is getting increasingly hungry. Chamorro himself is very popular, but he has singular appeal. Once he's out of office, his coalition of the liberal center, Christian democrats and moderate right, with some periodic support from the Left, won't be able to hold together all that well.
 
So Colom made a dumb move... very interested in the life and times of Rios Montt.

And Nicaragua sounds like things won't go well once Chamorro is done.
 
So Colom made a dumb move... very interested in the life and times of Rios Montt.

And Nicaragua sounds like things won't go well once Chamorro is done.

Less a dumb move and more of a miscalculation.

As for Rios Montt, he'll pop up in some strange ways.

Yeah, things will go south. How far and fast are all up to his successors. To give a hint, one of his successors as President will be one of Nicaragua's most famous people today, a man of God and of the people... ;)

Please continue this

Will do! I hope I addressed your questions well enough.

All caught up now. Excellent work. I wonder where all this is going...

Towards the abyss, at least for a little while.
 
Less a dumb move and more of a miscalculation.

As for Rios Montt, he'll pop up in some strange ways.

Yeah, things will go south. How far and fast are all up to his successors. To give a hint, one of his successors as President will be one of Nicaragua's most famous people today, a man of God and of the people... ;)

One of the Cardenal brothers? D'Escoto Brockmann?
 
One of the Cardenal brothers? D'Escoto Brockmann?

If it's one of the Cardenal brothers, I'm betting it's the one who only reconciled last year otl, as opposed to the one who practically came running back to St. John Paul, no?

Which reminds me, this might butterfly away the two John Pauls. While liberation theology's excesses will get reined in, it might not be under Papa Wojtyla. It might be even more restrictive, especially if Ratzinger isn't the man at the Holy Office - Ratzinger went to great pains to distinguish between Guiterrez, Romero and the more conventional theologians, and people like the Cardenal brothers. Without him, things might get really ugly.

If an American gets in sniffing distance for the Holy Office... oh God, please don't give it to an American...:mad:
 
Give it to Jean-Marie Lustiger; you'd also have to make him a Cardinal earlier. Or maybe Ratzinger come early
 
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