TLIAW: La Revolućion Vive!

Why is the Company going through all this trouble? Either Sacasa wins, and the pro-American Somocistas stay in power, or Chamorro wins, and the pro-American Conservatives get into power. It's Nixon's wet dream, and there hasn't been an election like this since Magsaysay. Seems out of character for Nixon,

And if the good Colonel is any indication, they're enlisting the last people who even want to overthrow the government. I mean, at least Enrile and Pinochet were willing, this is practically conscription! The Company is getting sloppy.
 
Why is the Company going through all this trouble? Either Sacasa wins, and the pro-American Somocistas stay in power, or Chamorro wins, and the pro-American Conservatives get into power. It's Nixon's wet dream, and there hasn't been an election like this since Magsaysay. Seems out of character for Nixon,

And if the good Colonel is any indication, they're enlisting the last people who even want to overthrow the government. I mean, at least Enrile and Pinochet were willing, this is practically conscription! The Company is getting sloppy.

Think about whose going through an impeachment right now. He's not exactly focused on Nicaragua ;)

As for why the Company is doing it, the CIA (particularly in chunks of Latin America) is barely under control by Langley, let alone the White House or Congress. This isn't a rouge op, but it's not necessarily too far from one. And as for their willingness, while they may not be gung-ho, they'll at least listen to their yanqui paymasters. Moreover, Chamorro may have won the Presidency, but the National Assembly is another issue entirely...
 
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“Pedro Chamorro’s initial weeks as the first truly democratically elected President of Nicaragua were filled with hope. Chamorro had crushed Guillermo Sacasa, the brother-in-law of the deceased President Anastatio Somoza Debayle and former foreign minister, winning nearly as many votes as all 17 of his opponents combined. Holding a victory rally attended by tens of thousands of Managuans in the city’s central square, La Plaza de la República, Chamorro promised to rule “for all Nicaraguans, whether rich or poor, and pursue a free, just and democratic society.”

However, Chamorro was now in charge of a deeply divided country. While he had won the presidential election by a large margin, he had benefited from the inability of the Left to unite around a candidate. This meant that his victory did not translate into significant gains or 'coat-tails' for his Conservative Party in the legislative elections. The Conservatives held a narrow plurality in the National Assembly. The Somocista Nationalist Liberals had been devastated, but remained the second-largest party in the legislature. A veritable menagerie of parties held the balance of power, meaning that any legislative program would necessitate courting independents and smaller parties, some of them with radical agendas. The Conservative Party itself faced extensive internal divisions between progressives who wanted gradual social reform and cooperation with the parties of the left, and the old guard -led by now-Senator Fernando Agüero- who sought to fundamentally maintain the Somoza-era status quo, albeit under Conservative Party control...

In his first policy push, Chamorro aimed to court opponents of the old regime. He lifted the state of siege that had been in place since the death of Somoza, and declared his willingness to negotiate with any armed group ‘willing to lay down their arms and reconcile with their brothers of the Nicaraguan nation’. Chamorro also called for constitutional changes, to reduce the power of the office of the President, and entrench civil and political rights. With a clear popular mandate, and the Nationalist Liberals weakened without state patronage to hold them together, Chamorro manoeuvred these policies through a divided legislature. A constitutional reform commission was established, with one member of each major party, along with landowners, capitalists, trade unionists, and intellectuals sending representatives…

While Carlos Fonseca had publicly denounced Chamorro as a reactionary, debate raged within the FSLN National Directorate over the group’s policy towards the new regime. The movement was divided between radicals, led by Jaime Wheelock, who advocated an urban insurgency against the new government, and moderates, led by the Ortega brothers, who called for participation in the new system and cooperation with non-socialist parties. Eventually, the debate was resolved largely in favour of the Ortega faction. The Sandinistas would continue to mobilize the population in favour of revolutionary socialism and would maintain armed units in the countryside. At the same time, the National Directorate announced that it would respect the prevailing ceasefire and approved tactical cooperation with other leftist and ‘progressive’ parties as part of a ‘democratic path to socialism’…

After passing off the responsibility for a new constitution to the reform commission, Chamorro had to face the country’s dire economic crisis. Chamorro traveled to Washington as part of his first state visit, where he met with President Ford and other senior government and World Bank officials, returning to Nicaragua with vague promises of loans and debt forgiveness. Yet, direct aid from the United States was not forthcoming. With the newly minted Ford administration struggling to gain Congressional support amidst the wreckage of Watergate, Latin America was, for the most part, off the table. This forced the Chamorro administration into dire cuts, as well as a strategic default on a number of its loans, mainly to private banks and domestic lenders.

The 1975 annual budget, proposed by Chamorro allies in the National Assembly, slashed social and military spending while expanding public works projects, particularly in Managua. The budget narrowly passed two weeks later, after stormy debate, heavy revisions and a brief walkout from the legislature by members of the Nationalist Liberal caucus. The revised budget reversed some of the cuts to military spending, pledged to establish a commission on land reform, and shifted control over a number of schools to the Catholic Church and local comunidades eclesiales de base (CEBs), social collectives of Catholic laity established after the 1968 Medellín Conference of Latin American Bishops. The last reform, advocated by the Social Christian Party (PSC), was fiercely opposed by most of the National Assembly, only passing due to an unlikely coalition of the PSC and the Nicaraguan Socialist Party (PSN), which favoured the inclusion of left-leaning CEBs into the educational system...

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While a budget was passed without a major political crisis or a return to military rule, the stress fractured the Conservative Party. Only days after the budget was passed with a narrow majority of the party’s caucus, Fernando Agüero announced that he and his partisans would no longer caucus with the Conservative Party; instead, they formed a new bloc, the National Conservative Party. Agüero called for ‘respect for democracy, liberty, and the Constitution’, and demanded that Chamorro refuse to cooperate further with ‘Communists, anarchists, Bolsheviks and fellow travelers’. Documents later uncovered by The New York Times and La Nueva Prensa reveal that the National Conservatives received secret subsidies from the CIA, funneled through local businesses and possibly the drug trade…

While this might normally have left Chamorro as a lame duck, without allies in the National Assembly, the Nationalist Liberals were also splintering. Trouble had been brewing in their ranks for months over familial conflict and how rigidly to oppose the Chamorro administration, coming to a head only two weeks after the budget was passed. Anastasio Somoza Portocarrero, at the tender age of 24, challenged his uncle for control over the party. In the ensuing leadership battle, Sacasa narrowly lost a caucus vote due to a secondary challenge by General Roberto Martínez Lacayo, a former member of the Liberal-Conservative Junta. Sacasa subsequently left the party, resigning in disgrace. The new Somoza, however, did not take kindly to the ongoing presence of party members hostile to the ongoing domination of the party by the Somoza dynasty. Martínez was unceremoniously booted from the caucus. On his way out, Martínez took six Nationalist Liberal members of the National Assembly and two Senators with him as part of a new party, the National Action Party (PAN)...

Without a clear governing coalition in either house of the legislature, governance proved difficult, as the president was forced to construct ad-hoc coalitions on every issue. A modest land reform program was passed, providing state funds to independent farmers and small haciendados seeking to modernize farm production, along with a reasonably progressive new agricultural labour code. The country’s local police forces were reorganized into the Nicaraguan National Police (PNN), a national-level agency tasked with policing and internal security. While the National Guard remained the country’s primary security force, the PNN took over responsibility for policing in urban areas by the end of February 1976. In areas where legislation could not be passed, Chamorro relied on executive decrees, although the president was particularly cautious of overstepping his authority.

The next political crisis occurred in October of 1975, as the constitutional commission returned with their recommendations…”

José White. “Legislative Politics During the Nicaraguan Democratic Interregnum.” Democracy in Latin America 17:2 (2010). 446-481
 
El Salvador

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Maria gripped her basket tightly, her hands sweating even in the chilly twilight air. There was an army base nearby, and the base commander, the son of a local landowner and a member of ORDEN, was known to be a particularly brutal man with certain…nocturnal proclivities. If he or his men caught a peasant woman wandering around alone before dawn, even on a Sunday…well, death might not be the worst thing that could happen to her.

Maria tried to shake the horror from her mind, reciting the prayers that the good padre had taught her in the previous week to banish her fear.

God will provide for the faithful and righteous, for those who help themselves and those who fight for justice, now and at the End of Days.

Clambering over tree roots and stones, careful not to make too much noise, Maria reached the road. Here was the most challenging part of her journey. Encounters with National Guard, soldiers or policemen along the dusty highway were not uncommon, as the road acted as a major conduit between the towns of San Ignacio and La Palma. Hamlets inhabited by sharecroppers and landless labourers were interspersed along the roadside, with maize fields and coffee estates stretching out into the hills among stands of trees. Maria, looking far down the highway, saw nothing either way. The sun was just beginning to peak over the hills, dissolving the grey into a fuzzy palette of green, brown and yellow. Maria hurried across the highway, scurrying into the woods.

Trudging along an unmarked forest path, once known only to peasants who had grown up in the nearby villages and now traced by the initiated, it took nearly a half hour to reach her destination. The trees had grown thick around her, a warm embrace melting her terror. Finally, her skirt torn by branches and her shoes muddy, she reached the clearing. Unpacking her basket, with five weathered Spanish Bibles, she looked around. Nine others were gathered; Carlos, bearded and skinny, picked absent-mindedly at the grass, while Geraldo sipped from a waterskin and stared intently at the padre

Father José Inocencio Alas beamed at his small but worthy flock. He wore no cassock or priest’s collar; instead, he was dressed as a simple peasant, to better hide his identity. He could still feel the agony of broken bones, bruises and lacerations, punishment meted out by El Salvador’s National Guard for the crime of attending the nation’s first conference on agrarian reform. It had been three years since that day, when only the personal intervention of Monseñor Arturo Rivera y Damas had saved his life. He was more careful now. His ministry took him throughout Chalatenango, stopping at rural churches and comunidades eclesiales de base to hear confession, perform baptisms and weddings, and lead prayer services.

Lay leaders did most of the work in areas like this, leading services that combined traditional prayer with Bible study, discussion and reading lessons. The lay leader here, Geraldo Rojas, was as poor as the rest of them, but strong in spirit and a dogged, often brilliant, student. He was a man who, in a different nation or a different life, would have been a lawyer or doctor, not a campesino struggling to survive.

“Shall we start?” Father José asked the group, gathered around him, who nodded their affirmation. Father José began, “Padre nuestro, que estás en el cielo…


***​


“… so, Solomon was a bad ruler!” spat Pilar.

“Why do you say so, Pilar?” asked Geraldo, leading the group now that Father José had moved on to the next village.

Pilar Estrada, a local washerwoman and a widow with three daughters whose husband had died several months before from dysentery, responded. “He taxed and burdened the people to build palaces and armies.”

Carlos interjected. “Pilar, doing so was God’s work. He built the great Temple as well.”

“It was God’s work, but can that really be God’s way?”

“Sometimes, the people must contribute to build something great.”

Pilar rolled her eyes. “Now you sound like a haciendado.”

Carlos bristled, and started to speak, but a glance from Father José quieted him.

“Continue, Pilar.”

“It’s just that…” The woman, who had never opened a book before the Catholic radio school started, often still struggled with her words. “…It’s just that, I would be happy to work to build a school, or a road, or a clinic. I would work through the night, give every hour of rest that I had, to make sure my children could learn. If I had my own land, I would break my back to feed myself. We have none of those things. For all of the labour we pour into the coffee fincas and every colón we pay in tax, we receive almost nothing. The rich are ungodly, Jesus said so.”

Esteban intoned in support, reading from Matthew, “Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the Kingdom of God."

Carlos responded. “Our rulers may be greedy and impious, even wicked. There can be righteous rulers as well though.”

Maria spoke up, dusting off her dress. “And what of when the rulers are wicked? Do we serve them anyway and hope they become righteous?”

“What else can we do? Revolution?”

“Perhaps,” said Maria, quietly.

Tension was suddenly in the air. Carlos shook his head, sadly. “Un revolućion es una guerra es una mantaza, es la muerte.”

Maria responded. “As Dalton says, we are all born half-dead. What does death matter?”

The group was silent.

“What does death matter, if the price of life is slavery?”
 
Somewhere, there's a timeline where El Salvador doesn't suck, but this obviously isn't it.

I wonder what happens to Archbishop Romero? Though I must say, contrary to popular belief, he's not actually a liberation theologian, at least not the radical wing of the movement (this is a guy whose closest advisors are Opus Dei, remember. Man is a theological conservative, so to speak.)

Anyway, a timeline where he doesn't get gunned down at Holy Mass might betoken something less sucky than OTL.
 
Liberation theology and discontent in El Salvador... interesting.

Pretty much OTL, but yeah.

Somewhere, there's a timeline where El Salvador doesn't suck, but this obviously isn't it.

It could get better in the long run. While whatever unrest or civil war occurs ITTL is inevitably going to be bloody, it could birth a new order that is, if not great, at least better than what was there before.

The thing with El Salvador (and, let's be honest, most of Central America) is, to get a world where it isn't a nightmarish combination of feudalism and a neoliberal fantasy, you either have to go back very far in history (colonial-era at least) or have some sort of revolution occur that breaks up elite landholdings and distributes them among the peasantry.

Finally, considering how my guest posts have made Malê Rising's El Salvador one of the world's darkspots, I really don't want to give the impression that I have something against the place, or enjoy making it suffer in my counterfactuals. I'm very interested in El Salvador, and honestly believe that its prevailing sociopolitical structure made suffering and violence an inevitable part of its history. Oppression and horrific violence against the masses in El Salvador was a feature of the system, not a bug.

I wonder what happens to Archbishop Romero? Though I must say, contrary to popular belief, he's not actually a liberation theologian, at least not the radical wing of the movement (this is a guy whose closest advisors are Opus Dei, remember. Man is a theological conservative, so to speak.)

Anyway, a timeline where he doesn't get gunned down at Holy Mass might betoken something less sucky than OTL.

This is true. Romero, Obando in Nicaragua, and arguably even the current pope are from a generation of Latin American church leaders who sought to strike a balance between liberation theology and the arch-conservatism of John Paul II. They embraced some of the populist elements of the Iglesia Popular, such as the 'preferential option for the poor', support for democracy and reaching out to oppressed communities. At the same time, they were theologically much more conservative than liberation theologians like Ernesto Cardenal and his ilk.

Francisco, considering how knowledgable about the Catholic Church you seem to be, would you mind if I hit you up at times for your opinion on stuff related to it?

And, as for not getting gunned down in church, no promises. Remember, this is the Salvadoran government we're dealing with. One of their militias issued fliers calling for the people to "Be a Patriot, Kill a Priest". Roberto D'Aubuisson and his brand of anti-clerical fascism is still kicking around too.
 
Can't claim to be an expert, but I'll try my best.

Interestingly, liberation theology per se hasn't been condemned (otherwise, as you say, Romero would be condemned, not on the way to beatification), as opposed to its Marxist strand. It might be profitable to distinguish the original liberation theology wing (including Fray Guiterrez, and in which camp I include Romero, Bergoglio and Sin to some extent) with the more radical wing, which was more Marxist in orientation, led by, as you say, Father Cardenal. Certainly that is what then-Cardinal Ratzinger thought, though in America, it tended to get censored by the Weigelistas, as did anything from Rome that didn't seem to endorse Late Reaganism (remember, Centeisimus Annus was heavily critical of capitalism, yet the Weigelistas simply ignored the inconvenient parts - John Paul was not as his detractors seem to think, though the dynamics of the American scene tend to distort this on this side of the Atlantic and north of the Rio Grande, historically).

Much of the post-mortem mythologizing of Romero, frankly, makes him much more sympathetic to the Marxist wing than he actually was.
 
Can't claim to be an expert, but I'll try my best.

Interestingly, liberation theology per se hasn't been condemned (otherwise, as you say, Romero would be condemned, not on the way to beatification), as opposed to its Marxist strand. It might be profitable to distinguish the original liberation theology wing (including Fray Guiterrez, and in which camp I include Romero, Bergoglio and Sin to some extent) with the more radical wing, which was more Marxist in orientation, led by, as you say, Father Cardenal. Certainly that is what then-Cardinal Ratzinger thought, though in America, it tended to get censored by the Weigelistas, as did anything from Rome that didn't seem to endorse Late Reaganism (remember, Centeisimus Annus was heavily critical of capitalism, yet the Weigelistas simply ignored the inconvenient parts - John Paul was not as his detractors seem to think, though the dynamics of the American scene tend to distort this on this side of the Atlantic and north of the Rio Grande, historically).

Much of the post-mortem mythologizing of Romero, frankly, makes him much more sympathetic to the Marxist wing than he actually was.

Interesting, I'll have to do some more reading on that.

As for the timeline, specifically Nicaragua, Chamorro may find his long-term political home in an alliance between the Social Christians, reformist Conservatives and the center-left, who want some land reform and expanded social programs without a fundamental transformation in society.
 
A few thoughts I just thought:
-The biblical reference was nice- if someone brings up Rehoboam, Solomon's son, it could reinforce that impression.
-One of Nicaragua's major exports was blood plasma. A company known as Plasmaferesis, owned in part by Somoza's son, was collecting plasma for export to the USA. OTL Chamorro did an expose on deaths and illnesses in the donors there, which may have been a cause of his OTL assassination and the revolution. Does the company still exist ITTL?
 
Hopefully, this butterflies away Ortega.

And wouldn't that have effects...

Well, he's still around, de-facto leading the moderate faction of the Sandinistas. He'll play an important role in the events to follow

A few thoughts I just thought:
-The biblical reference was nice- if someone brings up Rehoboam, Solomon's son, it could reinforce that impression.
-One of Nicaragua's major exports was blood plasma. A company known as Plasmaferesis, owned in part by Somoza's son, was collecting plasma for export to the USA. OTL Chamorro did an expose on deaths and illnesses in the donors there, which may have been a cause of his OTL assassination and the revolution. Does the company still exist ITTL?

Thanks, something like that may come up in a future meeting, or perhaps later in that conversation.

As for Plasmaferesis, it's either still around, or it was quietly shut down by Chamorro once he came to power. Somoza's son is still kicking around, although the Nationalist Liberals are rapidly fading; they don't have a clear ideology, their leading family is politically toxic to a majority of the population, and they don't have the patronage networks to keep the machine going.


Also, update either late tonight or sometime this week. School is catching up with me fast.
 
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“The constitution proposed by the Nicaraguan Constituent Commission was a progressive, democratic, and moderate document. Written with the aid of legal scholars from Europe, the United States and even Israel, Costa Rica and Japan, the 1976 Constitution carefully balanced individual rights with demands for social justice, promoted checks and balances against tyranny and over-centralization in the form of a semi-presidential system and a strong judiciary, and guaranteed civil and social liberties. The political crisis that ensued upon its introduction into the House of Delegates had less to do with the proposed constitution itself than the deep cleavages in Nicaraguan society between revolutionaries, moderate reformers and a fading but powerful elite nostalgic for the certainty of the Somozas…

The draft constitution was introduced on October 25, 1975. The constituent commission, which included members of all the major Nicaraguan political parties, members of the business establishment, labour unions, professional associations, landowners and even the Church hierarchy, had managed to come to a consensus, with only the Somocista representative boycotting the final draft. Óscar Arias, a Costa Rican lawyer and member of the country’s center-left National Liberation Party, wrote most of the actual text of the document, while French legal scholar Georges Burdeau dominated the committee’s jurisprudential direction.

The 1976 Constitution established Nicaragua as a semi-presidential unitary republic. The President’s powers were rolled back, with the office losing the power to unilaterally declare a ‘state of siege’, appoint high-ranking bureaucrats or ministers, or issue executive decrees beyond a narrow range of scenarios. However, the President retained significant veto authority; could negotiate treaties and control foreign policy largely without parliamentary permission; held the power of a presidential pardon; and was the Commander-in-Chief of the country’s armed forces. The President was to be directly elected by the people, with a run-off election between the two highest-achieving candidates in the event that no one candidate won an absolute majority of votes in the first round. The President of Nicaragua would remain the tribune of the people and an important political player, but they would no longer dominate the political stage as the sole center of gravity.

Instead, many of the powers shorn from the President were transferred to the new position of Prime Minister. Elected from the members of the recently renamed legislature, the National Assembly, the Prime Minister directed domestic policy-making. Control of the national budget, the appointments of ministers, and confirmation of presidentially appointed bureaucrats and judges rested with the Prime Minister’s Office. Moreover, unlike the President, the Prime Minister was not restricted to two four-year terms; instead, one could technically serve as Prime Minister indefinitely. Critics of the new document, such as National Conservative Party leader Fernando Agüero, called the new position a ‘recipe for tyranny’, although most saw this type of denunciation as rank hypocrisy.

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Yet, despite the potential power of the head of government, the prospect of a parliamentary dictatorship seemed remote for a number of reasons. A new electoral system, based on closed-list proportional representation for the lower house and single-member districts for the Senate, was put into the constitution, with an intermediate electoral threshold of 4%. This incentivized some degree of party consolidation without the polarization of a two-party system. This meant that coalition building, particularly in a country as politically divided as Nicaragua, would be necessary for nearly every government. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court was reformed, and a new Constitutional Court was created. The latter institutions had the power to strike down laws on the basis of their unconstitutionality, decisions that could only be overturned either with a constitutional amendment or a three-quarters majority in the National Assembly and the Senate. Judges were to be selected by a non-partisan committee of former legislators, lawyers and foreign advisors. This system maintained parliamentary supremacy, but placed a strong check on the ability of a majority to suppress civil liberties.

The individual rights and liberties reserved to the people by the constitution were extensive. Freedoms of conscience, speech, expression, assembly, association, thought, faith, mobility and communication were guaranteed as ‘fundamental’, subject to limits only as “reasonably and minimally restricted within the bounds of a free and democratic nation”. Democratic rights were also guaranteed, with the right to vote, run for elected office and participate in the political process allowed for all Nicaraguans over the age of 18. Legal rights, such as habeus corpus, the right to a fair trial and freedom from unreasonable search and seizure, were assured along with the right to ‘fair and equal treatment under the law regardless of “race, religion, income, gender or national origin”. Traditional indigenous communities also gained a greater voice, with the document conferring them special status, with constitutionally guaranteed protection of their communal structures and ‘traditional lifestyle’.

Finally, and most controversially, positive social and economic rights were guaranteed. The state was obligated to the right of every Nicaraguan citizen to “the necessities of a simple and dignified life”. A compromise struck between Christian democrats and the left on the constituent commission, the document used religious language and did not explicitly enumerate rights to food, shelter, employment and healthcare as demanded by the socialists, but it was still a truly radical move. This, more than anything, precipitated what happened afterwards…

The political crisis began shortly after the constitution was introduced into the House of Delegates for a first reading. The opposition parties, beginning with Fernando Agüero and followed by other Somoza-era notables including the young Anastasio Somoza, rose in succession to denounce the new document as a ‘Bolshevik fraud’ and an ‘act of war against the Nicaraguan people’. A scuffle between a member of the pro-Chamorro Social Christian Party and a National Conservative erupted into a full-scale brawl. When order was finally restored to the chamber, the opposition parties had walked out, leaving barely a quorum in the legislature.

The first reading completed, Chamorro knew immediately that this was no normal political fracas. Returning to his family residence –Chamorro had converted the Presidential Palace into a home for indigent pensioners as a gesture of social solidarity– the president readied to address the nation…

José White. “Much Ado About Something: The Nicaraguan 'Constitutional' Crisis of 1976.” Democracy in Latin America 19:2 (2012). 113-160



***



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President Pedro Chamorro rubbed his eyes. He had had more sleepless nights than not in the past two weeks, and it showed in his mood. He snapped at the slightest provocation, and felt as though he could barely keep a thought in his head long enough to speak before it slipped away. His advisors sat in a circle around him, dark circles ringing their eyes too, papers and charts scattered across the coffee table. His wife Violetta, his rock and a key councilor even in times like these, brought another pot of black coffee, refilling all of their cups. The commander of the National Police, Ernesto Castillo Martínez, looked like he was nodding off, before the Minister of the Economy, Jorge Salazar, kicked him and startled him back to the mortal realm.

“Damn Agüero to Hell and back,” muttered Chamorro to himself, sipping his mug. Since the National Conservative leader had walked out of the House with his delegates, he had done nothing but cause trouble. Crowds had turned out in La Plaza de la República, calling for his resignation as President and threatening revolution. While Agüero was ostensibly the leader of the opposition, calling itself the Movement for the Defence of Democracy, posters plastered with the face of the ‘young lion’, Anastasio Somoza Portocarrero, had popped up all over the city. Chamorro hoped that the people knew better than to be nostalgic for the despotism of a Somoza.

Perhaps not. The crowds had only grown, occupying the central plaza for two weeks now. The police told him that people who didn’t like the new Nicaragua were paying many of the protestors to show up, and that the gringos might be involved as well. Chamorro had met Gerald Ford, and found him to be a honourable, like-minded man. While he had not come through on all of his promises of aid, he seemed to have meant them. He was a tricky bastard, had less control over his shadows than he thought, or maybe both. Still, there would not be crowds at all if the country were pleased with his presidency. He had considered resigning in exchange for the passage of the new constitution: while he was not completely happy, he could not indict the entire document for its small imperfections. His wife and advisors had shot that plan down immediately though. There was no one to replace Chamorro other than Somoza or one of his puppets, and the new system was not consolidated enough for the leadership of a cynic or a moron.

“Ernesto, numbers for the crowd?”

Castillo cleared his throat. “Some have left since yesterday. We’re probably down to 20,000. They don’t look like they are going anywhere though. We could clear the square, although we’d need to call in units from the rest of the country and possibly ask for support from the National Guard. It could be bloody.”

“I am not shooting my own people.”

“I don’t see any other choice.”

“We can’t build democracy on a foundation of corpses. Ernesto, have we been able to get Martínez to the table?”

“He’s demanding to be Prime Minister in the next government, and for you to step down and endorse him for President in ’78. We can probably bargain with him further, but for now he’s sticking with Agüero.”

Chamorro shook his head. “Jorge?”

Salazar shuffled his papers and sighed. “The situation is not looking good. We need to borrow at least 30 million at the end of the month to roll over old debt, and the interest rates on our bonds has spiked. We’ll be paying nearly 15% interest on an 18-month bond. We may have to devalue the (currency) just to stay afloat, and prices are already rising.”

Chamorro held his head in his hands, and then looked at Castillo. “Draw up a plan for how you’d clear the square. No use of live rounds, nothing that will kill anyone. It has to be bloodless.” Castillo looked dubious, but promised that he would do it.

Suddenly, a servant entered the room. “Mr. President,” he interrupted, using the more casual honorific adopted from the Americans since the transition, “Colonel Mejía, of the National Guard, is here to see you.”

Chamorro nodded, and the military officer entered. Mejía, recently promoted to full colonel, wore a simple uniform with his sleeves rolled up and a cigarette behind his ear. His shoulder straps each displayed three silver stars, carefully polished along with his boots. Mejía stood to attention and saluted. Chamorro waved him down, “At ease, Colonel.”

Mejía sat down, and handed Chamorro a folder before lighting his cigarette. “Mr. President, I suggest you take a look at the contents of that.”

Chamorro opened the folder, and began to read. About forty seconds later, he placed it down carefully. He looked at the others, and said quietly, “I’d like everyone to leave for a moment. The Colonel and I have something to discuss.”

Slowly, glancing at each other, the members of Chamorro’s inner circle stood up and left the room. Violetta was the last to leave, looking pleadingly at her husband. He nodded and smiled, then shook his head. She smiled back, and strode out.

Chamorro lean back, then grabbed a cigarette out of his breast pocket and lit it up. After a long silence, he asked Mejía, “Would you like a drink? The British Ambassador gave me a good bottle of scotch to break Lent.”

Mejía nodded, and Chamorro rose. Pouring two healthy drinks, he handed one to the colonel and sat back down. They clinked their glasses and in silence took a drink. After a few minutes, Chamorro started. “So, you bastards mean business.”

Mejía thought for a moment, and answered deliberately. “When it comes to Communists, yes, Mr. President, we do.”

Chamorro snorted. “Communists, under the bed, in the attic, hiding in your plumbing!” he said sarcastically. “I’m no Communist, boy.”

Mejía chuckled. “I know, Mr. President. That’s why I’m here.”

Chamorro narrowed his eyes, and then started laughing. “I see. I wish I could prove it to the rest of the Guard in the next-” Chamorro checked the file “-in the next two hours.”

“You wouldn’t have to, Mr. President. Leave it up to me. I have a good relationship with the enlisted men. They’ll listen to me before some jumped-up rich kid like Humberto.”

Chamorro drained his whisky and poured another. “And what’s in all of this for you, Colonel?” he asked.

“A promotion and a raise. Chief Director of the National Guard would be a start. Also, leave the Guard alone, and let us deal with the Communists in the countryside.”

“The first I can do, Colonel, but the second… We can’t have a civil war.”

Mejía leaned back. “I can always leave without a deal, Mr. President. Roll the dice. You might make it to the airport before we do. I wouldn’t bet on your odds though.”

Chamorro made a face. “Fine. You can have your war, but keep it to the countryside, and be careful. For every campesino you torture, the guerrillas get another five recruits.”

Mejía nodded, and rose to leave. “Thank you Mr. President. I voted for you, and I’m glad I did. I want to see this country thrive just as much as you do.”

Chamorro stood, and shook his hand. “Congratulations, General Mejía.

Mejía began to leave. “How will you handle General Humberto?” Chamorro asked.

The colonel turned, and grinned. “He’s inspecting our brave soldiers on the northern coast, despite the danger. Small aircraft have such a poor safety record, you know.”
 
Interesting. So it's basically a palace coup - one that's ostensibly in favor of the elected president, but one which puts Mejia and his CIA buddies in total control of defense and gives them free rein to conduct a dirty war in the countryside. This is much subtler than I expected - but on the other hand, its very subtlety may be a weakness, because the Nicaraguans who still think they live in a democracy will demand an accounting for the National Guard's conduct. Chamorro will have a hard time responding without making it clear that he's on the military's string.
 
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