unless WW1 is radically different from OTL (meaning, no trenches and a completely different kind of war), the process of winning against Germany is going to take a hell of a lot out of the French and British... millions of lives lost, huge amounts of money spent, etc... neither is going to be able to take the war to N. America. The CSA will stand alone against the USA, as it did in the book; and it can't win that war. France and Britain might be able to make the USA back down by the possibility of sending forces to Canada, but the USA isn't going to lose any territory, and the peace will be a grudging one...
TL 191: Entene victory in First Great War
- Thread starter Spitfiremk1
- Start date
No way in hell. The Canadian and Confederate armies were on the defensive for the entire war, save for the Army of Northern Virginia and the raiders in Kansas and Missouri. Even if the Entente comes out victorious, the CSA would barely be in a position to demand anything, let alone annexation, on Delaware and Maryland. New Mexico would never go to the CSA, and neither would Missouri. If Richmond was strong enough they might get something done about West Virginia. Maybe. Forget about everything else.
Great Britain and the Empire wouldn't demand any territorial changes, except maybe a little more of Maine. Mexico couldn't.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Even that probably wouldn't be enough. Remember, the US has at this point two capitals, sort of. The de jure capital is Washington, DC; this was captured in the books, so obviously that wouldn't be enough. The de facto capital is Philadelphia. Now, Philly getting captured would be a huge bonus for the CSA. They would've captured a huge territory and population. If they were strong enough to get that far, it could ultimately spell defeat for the US. But Confederate Philadelphia or not, the politicians would just pull out ahead of time. It'd be pretty easy to downplay it in the media; after all, Philadelphia wasn't technically the capital. I could see the politicians moving up to NYC, and trying to rally the army from there.
How about something like this? Canada gets Maine, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and a useless piece of upstate New York. CSA gets Missouri, Maryland, Delaware, and southern pieces of Illinois and Indiana. So, ultimately, Canada doesn't get a huge population to occupy, and the CS gets mostly pro-Confederate territory. I can't see the CS occupying areas that aren't at least somewhat pro-Confederate. Maryland and Delaware are kind of iffy, but I don't see it as that much of a stretch. In the original, the US occupied several states following the war, so it's reasonable to assume the CS would do something similar. Outside of that, Deseret independence. The CS probably wouldn't care either way about the Mormons, but post-war, the US would be unable to keep on fighting the rebellion.
Too lazy to fill in every bit of territory and fix border lines:
Would the situation in Europe be similar to OTL. If it is, and the Entene pull of a victory (which was already hard in OTL), what are the long term consequenses, Ie, what happens if there is a next war, does the soviet union come about?
Well, here's my interpreation of a Entente vicotry in tl191, with trying to stay as much to OTL as possible. I think the Eastern hempsphere would be pretty much OTL. But in Wmeirca, i agree that the only way entene victory over all is either the CSA and Canada beat the US ealry on in the War, and then concentrate on europe, but this is unlikely considering the situation of the US Armed Forces and economy.
The only other way i can see it without a decisive first stike, is that the Entnete make a breakthrough in europe early on, Ie, Gallipoli Campaign is a succes (Gallipoli still happens in TL 191 doesnt it.), or at latest, the British and French Force a Breakout at the Somme, and the Brusilov offensive in the east is a succes, (I honestly don't know if these happen in Tl 191, it's been a logn time since i read them, but i remember Marne, Mons, Ypre and Verdun Being Menioned)
Anyway, i see Canada annexing Alaska, I doubt they would let the reds have it, and i think that in the event of the reds winning the civil war, there would be alot of White russian emigres, anyway, they will probably annex Oregan and Washington, and incorperate it as a province (I place bets on it being called Cascadia) and Occupy Nothern california, aswell as aneexing most of Idaho and Montana. Plus they would probably annex Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire (i think they would eventualy incorperate it into one province, imagine the uproar if they name it British North America
) and put Boston within artillery range. Then maybe most of the land around the Great Lakes, endangering Chicago. and taking buffer territories aound Niagra and the St lawrence river.
CS would annex Maryland, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico, sotuhern illonois, and Southern California, Once and for all cutting off the US form the Pacific (wankish, but wouldnt it be in thier intrest.) Hawai stays british, (I imagine it was more or less a protectorate, with the Hawainn Royal Family still ruling, but with shitloads of british advisors, much like the Indian Princely states) or perhaps the british think that it would be more in thier intrest to hand it over to Canada. Mexico probaly doesnt feel the need to annex anything, as it is now totaly cut of form the US, but now more a CS puppet than ever, Cs now Deffantly gets Porto Rico, plus i think they would occupy most of the industrial US, much like the Rhur in OTL.
Argentina (they were on the entente side were they not) annexes some of Sotuhern Brazil, Southern Chile and a little bit of Paraquay.
So Now you have a US that is Totaly Crushed, and i realy don't think that in the event of a Second war, they will do anything, most US politions would probably be contempt to go for the Satus Quo, or though i imagine there would be a huge degree of civil unrest, particualy in the industiral workign class areas, where you might have communists fighting some sort of equivilant to OTL Nazis.
BTW, whats other oppinions on the possibility of a Second War, i think japan will emerge as the Main problem though. for the Allies though, But i imagine this it will emerge as a Britwank more than anythign else.
(I meant to psot a map, but i wouldnt let me, and sorry for any mistakes, innacuacies and crap ideas)
The only other way i can see it without a decisive first stike, is that the Entnete make a breakthrough in europe early on, Ie, Gallipoli Campaign is a succes (Gallipoli still happens in TL 191 doesnt it.), or at latest, the British and French Force a Breakout at the Somme, and the Brusilov offensive in the east is a succes, (I honestly don't know if these happen in Tl 191, it's been a logn time since i read them, but i remember Marne, Mons, Ypre and Verdun Being Menioned)
Anyway, i see Canada annexing Alaska, I doubt they would let the reds have it, and i think that in the event of the reds winning the civil war, there would be alot of White russian emigres, anyway, they will probably annex Oregan and Washington, and incorperate it as a province (I place bets on it being called Cascadia) and Occupy Nothern california, aswell as aneexing most of Idaho and Montana. Plus they would probably annex Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire (i think they would eventualy incorperate it into one province, imagine the uproar if they name it British North America
) and put Boston within artillery range. Then maybe most of the land around the Great Lakes, endangering Chicago. and taking buffer territories aound Niagra and the St lawrence river.CS would annex Maryland, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico, sotuhern illonois, and Southern California, Once and for all cutting off the US form the Pacific (wankish, but wouldnt it be in thier intrest.) Hawai stays british, (I imagine it was more or less a protectorate, with the Hawainn Royal Family still ruling, but with shitloads of british advisors, much like the Indian Princely states) or perhaps the british think that it would be more in thier intrest to hand it over to Canada. Mexico probaly doesnt feel the need to annex anything, as it is now totaly cut of form the US, but now more a CS puppet than ever, Cs now Deffantly gets Porto Rico, plus i think they would occupy most of the industrial US, much like the Rhur in OTL.
Argentina (they were on the entente side were they not) annexes some of Sotuhern Brazil, Southern Chile and a little bit of Paraquay.
So Now you have a US that is Totaly Crushed, and i realy don't think that in the event of a Second war, they will do anything, most US politions would probably be contempt to go for the Satus Quo, or though i imagine there would be a huge degree of civil unrest, particualy in the industiral workign class areas, where you might have communists fighting some sort of equivilant to OTL Nazis.
BTW, whats other oppinions on the possibility of a Second War, i think japan will emerge as the Main problem though. for the Allies though, But i imagine this it will emerge as a Britwank more than anythign else.
(I meant to psot a map, but i wouldnt let me, and sorry for any mistakes, innacuacies and crap ideas)
To make any of that work the Anglo-Canadian and Confederate armies would have to hold the ground they plan on annexing. Given that the US Army in the Great War outnumbered its enemies on both fronts combined I want to say that these annexation wank scenarios are...highly unlikely comes to mind, but impossible is probably a better term.
The only chance the CS has of winning is if the Army of Northern Virginia takes Philladelphia in 1914-1915, complete the loop around Baltimore and force the army ther to surrender. That's it only chance. Might not even be enough, but if the US did sue for peace the terms would be compartively reasonable.
Since it's a quick war, the terms are not going to be harsh. West Virginia? Missouri? Southern Indiana/Illionois? Absurd. Won't even mention Canada carving off huge chunks of the northern US, though they'll keep northern Maine.
They'll take Maryland/Deleware as the ANV did take it by right of conquest and perhaps New Mexico as a buffer between Chihuahua and Sonora as that area is exposed.
Britain will get the Sandwhich Islands back, Japan might get Midway and Wake. The Confederacy, Canada and Great Britain will all recieve some form of repirations. Maybe Mexico, but probably not since they didn't really do anything.
The US military will be reduced in size and excess military equipment will be surrendered to the Entente forces with inspectors to make sure these terms are complied with. US probably will be forbidden trade with Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans for the duration of the war too.
The restrictions won't be as crippling as they were to the Confederacy in the books or OTL Germany, but they will feel the pinch. You can't make the terms too harsh, or the US will keep on fighting and will win eventually. Though Philadelphia falling and Baltimore being encircled will hurt the US, and could lead to Debs getting elected in 1916, which would mean status quo ante bellum.
I see Canada sending over almost everything it has to the European war. The Confederacy will send some units, though will have to keep most of it's military in America to ensure the US is complying with the peace agreement.
Will these reinforcements, along with the CS Navy assisting the blockade, make a difference in the European war? Hard to say. Germany OTL was on it's last legs before the US ever entered the war, though France and Britain won't be getting mass goods from the US like it did OTL. You could reasonably justify an Entente victory in America and defeat in Europe.
Since it's a quick war, the terms are not going to be harsh. West Virginia? Missouri? Southern Indiana/Illionois? Absurd. Won't even mention Canada carving off huge chunks of the northern US, though they'll keep northern Maine.
They'll take Maryland/Deleware as the ANV did take it by right of conquest and perhaps New Mexico as a buffer between Chihuahua and Sonora as that area is exposed.
Britain will get the Sandwhich Islands back, Japan might get Midway and Wake. The Confederacy, Canada and Great Britain will all recieve some form of repirations. Maybe Mexico, but probably not since they didn't really do anything.
The US military will be reduced in size and excess military equipment will be surrendered to the Entente forces with inspectors to make sure these terms are complied with. US probably will be forbidden trade with Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans for the duration of the war too.
The restrictions won't be as crippling as they were to the Confederacy in the books or OTL Germany, but they will feel the pinch. You can't make the terms too harsh, or the US will keep on fighting and will win eventually. Though Philadelphia falling and Baltimore being encircled will hurt the US, and could lead to Debs getting elected in 1916, which would mean status quo ante bellum.
I see Canada sending over almost everything it has to the European war. The Confederacy will send some units, though will have to keep most of it's military in America to ensure the US is complying with the peace agreement.
Will these reinforcements, along with the CS Navy assisting the blockade, make a difference in the European war? Hard to say. Germany OTL was on it's last legs before the US ever entered the war, though France and Britain won't be getting mass goods from the US like it did OTL. You could reasonably justify an Entente victory in America and defeat in Europe.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
No way. Russia a Canadian ally. Canada would rather try to get concessions from America than concessions from Russia.
they will probably annex Oregan and Washington, and incorperate it as a province (I place bets on it being called Cascadia) and Occupy Nothern california, aswell as aneexing most of Idaho and Montana. Plus they would probably annex Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire (i think they would eventualy incorperate it into one province, imagine the uproar if they name it British North America
CS would annex Maryland, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico, sotuhern illonois, and Southern California, Once and for all cutting off the US form the Pacific (wankish, but wouldnt it be in thier intrest.) Hawai stays british, (I imagine it was more or less a protectorate, with the Hawainn Royal Family still ruling, but with shitloads of british advisors, much like the Indian Princely states) or perhaps the british think that it would be more in thier intrest to hand it over to Canada. Mexico probaly doesnt feel the need to annex anything, as it is now totaly cut of form the US, but now more a CS puppet than ever, Cs now Deffantly gets Porto Rico, plus i think they would occupy most of the industrial US, much like the Rhur in OTL.
No way. That's like a dozen states in total outright annexed, plus California occupied, plus whatever other states and buffer territories they take. The US would never allow it, Canada and the CS wouldn't be able to occupy all that territory, especially when you consider all the losses they take in the Great War.
Just as an aside, Kentucky is already part of the CS. I think the CS took it in the peace deal after the Civil War (can't remember... it might've joined during), and it became a sort of pro-US territory afterwards. But after the Second Mexican War, when Kentucky got pretty fucked over, they lost their pro-American attitudes.
Ehhh... Not necessarily. You could have a bunch of small things turn the war in the Confederate's favor. Have the Entente win the European War and start shipping aid over. Have the CS establish proper tank doctrine; OTL, Custer was only able to make a breakthrough accidentally. Maybe develop people bombs earlier in Canada and Deseret, so American occupation becomes a lot more expensive.
I see it as pretty reasonable. Southern Indiana/Illinois were definitely pro-Confederate. Missouri might not've been so much, but the CS would see them as an extension of good ol' Southern culture. West Virginia would be a propaganda issue; they see it as just rightfully returning Virginian territory, rather than just trying to occupy an American state. Outside of WV (and New Mexico, which I actually thought was originally part of the CS), all of the territory I gave the CS was pretty Southern in culture.
Sorry if i went to far, like i said before, the only way there is goign to be an entente victory in this war is if Thier is either a decisive Breakthroguh in America, like the CS capturing Philidelphia, or a Entente Sucsess in europe, like Tl 191's version of the Gallipoli campaign succedes (I assume that it still goes ahead.) because then you could have a reasonably quick entente victory in europe, say early 1916, then have Britian and the dominions can send over troops to canada and pump everythig they have got into the CS .
Look, you have to remember something, it sounds rediculous, but one way you could have canada occupy that territory is say, early entnete vitory in Europe, the British-japanese attempt to re take the sandwich islands succeds, then the British with possibly small French help could pour troops in form europe, thats counting the Dominion troops already in europe, then you could have unraised units form New Zealand, Austrlaia and maybe even India be sent across the pacific to assist as well, then if everything goes to plan, they can bring about a entente victory A la OTL 1918, then have the domminion troops assisit in the ocupation. (ASB, but can't you just imagine Ghurkas parading in Down Town Sacramento, or Anzacs acting like hooligans in Detroit.)
But unlike the US in Canada, i imagine in the end that Canada and the CS would most likely withdraw from the occupied territories, becuase the people woudl probably have for of a will to resist, but keep the territories givign them the least trouble.
) But unlike the US in Canada, i imagine in the end that Canada and the CS would most likely withdraw from the occupied territories, becuase the people woudl probably have for of a will to resist, but keep the territories givign them the least trouble.
The CSA isn't going to win. The US has been defeated by the entente nation twice already and even if the CSA captures Philly early how long can they hold on to it? The US' mentality is so geared toward the defeat of the CSA that even if they get the capital the US would still just keep fighting. Remember that the CSA keept on fighting after richmond was captured by the US in the second war and they were FAR worse off then the US would be in the begining. The US' population, industry, resources, etc. is greater then either the CS or Canada's. Sorry but the Confederacy just doesn't have what it takes to win.
There is this thing about alternate Entnete Victory's, you virtualy always have to go ASB to get them. Someone oce mentiond that the whole concept of an Entente vicotry in OTL was ASB as it was, becuase they were in a bad position from the start. An entente victory in America all hinges on a quick entene Vicotry in europe, which was possible, becuase then the US is isolated, and has the bulk of the Royal Navy to contend with, a Royal Navy blockade of the US would be devastating for thier war effort.
I tend to agree with my fellow Houstonian, Lothaw. If we accept the capabilities and strategies of the warring powers as set out by Mr. Turtledove in the books as canon, I believe the best chance for an Entente "victory" invoves a CSA victory in or around Philadelphia in 1914-1915. However, in considering this possibility we should remember who is President of the US a this time: TR. And not the genial "Teddy" Roosevelt of OTL, the youngest man to serve as President, but an older, harder, harsher, England hating, German loving "Yankee Kaiser". I therefore propose that in order to achieve a quick CSA victory, we need for TR to die; heroically, of course, in the defense of Philadelphia. Since Turtledove has TR visiting the trenches of the Roanoke Front it is not impossible to picture him attempting to lead the defense of Philadelphia from the front. With TR tragically dead, his yellow bellied VP (I do not believe he was ever named in the books) betrays his gallant Central Alliance partners and seeks and obtains a quick peace with the Entente. The terms of such a quick peace might be:
1. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from their (modest) gains in Kentucky, Canada and Mexico.
2. Transfer of Maryland and Delaware to the CSA by right of conquest.
3. Reunion of the break away counties of Western Virginia with Virginia.
4. Return of the Sandwich Islands to GB.
5. Commitment by the U.S. to remain neutral in the continuing war of the Entente against the Central Alliance.
6. Minor territorial gains by GB in northern Maine or Vermont.
The question then becomes how the rest of the war plays out. I agree with the earlier comment that the CSA is unlikely to send significant ground forces to Europe because of its fear of a stab in the back from the U.S. While Canadian forces will probably be transferred to Europe this may not be a major change from OTL where Germany held off the British, French and Russian Empires for over three years. There has ben much debate in other threads as to the real effect of U.S. forces in OTL's WWI. I believe that such forces were important in the victory of the Entente, but even more important was the idea that the Americans were coming and then the idea that the Americans were here. In our altered TL 191 the Entente does not have that morale boost of U.S. support and it also does not have the financial and logistical support of America.
I therefore think that a "peace of exhaustion" is possible in 1917 or 1918 which might inclujde the following terms:
1. German withdrawal from Belgium and Alsace-Lorraine. Perhaps the Germans get to keep Luxembourg.
2. The German colonies are gone, never to be returned.
3. The Kingdom of Poland and perhaps the Kingdoms of Courland and Finland remain under German control.
The result of such a peace might be a France bled white, a GB bankrupted, a Russian wracked by civil war and a Germany wounded but better able to recover and seek a rematch in 20 years time.
In the U.S. the Democrats might be discredited for losing another war to the CSA and the Socialists could either become a new majority party on an isolationist, let's improve the lot of the worker and not worry about our neighbors platform or could be attacked as wimps who undermined the war effort by a new, militant revanchist party. In the CSA, the political and social hegemony of the Whig Party and its planter/industrial supporters continues without forseeable end. Such a world might even be darker than the one Mr. Turtledove created in his books.
1. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from their (modest) gains in Kentucky, Canada and Mexico.
2. Transfer of Maryland and Delaware to the CSA by right of conquest.
3. Reunion of the break away counties of Western Virginia with Virginia.
4. Return of the Sandwich Islands to GB.
5. Commitment by the U.S. to remain neutral in the continuing war of the Entente against the Central Alliance.
6. Minor territorial gains by GB in northern Maine or Vermont.
The question then becomes how the rest of the war plays out. I agree with the earlier comment that the CSA is unlikely to send significant ground forces to Europe because of its fear of a stab in the back from the U.S. While Canadian forces will probably be transferred to Europe this may not be a major change from OTL where Germany held off the British, French and Russian Empires for over three years. There has ben much debate in other threads as to the real effect of U.S. forces in OTL's WWI. I believe that such forces were important in the victory of the Entente, but even more important was the idea that the Americans were coming and then the idea that the Americans were here. In our altered TL 191 the Entente does not have that morale boost of U.S. support and it also does not have the financial and logistical support of America.
I therefore think that a "peace of exhaustion" is possible in 1917 or 1918 which might inclujde the following terms:
1. German withdrawal from Belgium and Alsace-Lorraine. Perhaps the Germans get to keep Luxembourg.
2. The German colonies are gone, never to be returned.
3. The Kingdom of Poland and perhaps the Kingdoms of Courland and Finland remain under German control.
The result of such a peace might be a France bled white, a GB bankrupted, a Russian wracked by civil war and a Germany wounded but better able to recover and seek a rematch in 20 years time.
In the U.S. the Democrats might be discredited for losing another war to the CSA and the Socialists could either become a new majority party on an isolationist, let's improve the lot of the worker and not worry about our neighbors platform or could be attacked as wimps who undermined the war effort by a new, militant revanchist party. In the CSA, the political and social hegemony of the Whig Party and its planter/industrial supporters continues without forseeable end. Such a world might even be darker than the one Mr. Turtledove created in his books.
Thats very good, compared to my immature ideas. You and a few have mentioned "The next war" with your ideas presented here, what do you think might happen in that war. Becuase
Thats very good, compared to my immature ideas. You and a few have mentioned "The next war" with your ideaspresented here, what do you think might happen in that war. Because this i more or less a stalemate that favours the Entente than Entnete Vicotry.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Relatively major territory loss is a stalemate?
Anyway, for the next war, I'd say an ultimate allied victory. The first three would've been lost primarily by sheer bad luck alone. Having four major wars lost despite a superior position because of bad luck is ASB. Although the US is going to be in a weaker position in this TL, the CS is going to be, as well. You're not going to see an aggressive CS; they've already regained their desired territory, and have no reason to attack the US again. You'll end up with the US fucking pissed and ready to throw in its all against the CSA. The Remembrance Days of OTL are going to be completely renewed; a typical man living in New York might not remember when Virginia was part of the union, but they'll surely be angered at the loss of Maryland. The CS has no chance of getting a Featherston in charge in this TL; you'll see the Whigs just trounce along, trying to avoid war with the US, but not afraid to partake in it if necessary (esp. if short North American war). This time around, a strong focus will be put into creating a war industry years in advance. You'll end up seeing President Lindbergh launch a massive assault on the CSA with "Operation Liberation," June 22nd, 1941, and rapidly crush Confederate resistance.
Or the US could be completely cowed by three lost wars, see the CSA as an indomitable power, and meekly submit.