Discussion in 'Alternate History Books and Media' started by David bar Elias, Aug 17, 2008.
Think China will join the CDS?
I don't care much what happens. I just wish that it would be updated soon. This is really good.
I recall asking DBE that a while back, and he told me that China would definitely join the CDS.
this is certainly interesting, having China, and Russia a definite maybe, CDS influence would increase greatly, and truly become global...
DBE said that the US currently has the largest economy so adding a democratic modern Russia and China would ... I can't even think of how big that would be.
oh wow! that would be epic!
well lets see...the EC has Germany and the IM have Brazil and the Ottoman Empire, so each bloc is left entirely in the dust I guess...
So after the Japanese American war will Manchuria remain independent or become part of China
The big unknown in the looming Pacific War are nuclear weapons. Given the distance from the nearest Japanese air base to the USA and vice versa the advantage is to the Americans. The answer is of course ICBMs which Japan could have a few deployed by 1960. At very least they could be used to threaten US west cities in the event of the threat of a invasion. Replying that "we have ten sun bombs to your one" is not going to cut much ice the ruling elite of Imperial if they behave as they did on OTL. An investment in ABM technology is effectively mandatory and if the Germans don't like it, then they will have to do same themselves (which they probably would just in case the British built some IRBMs).
In addition because of US naval superiority the Japanese will probably go down the Soviet route of the anti shipping missile with super bomb warheads, which means that a hot Pacific War will be nuclear almost from Day One. The body count is going to be far higher than WW2 or either time line
If they could manage it, the USA would probably do better with a cold Pacific War in which they supply rebels with arms whilst preventing supplies to dissident Canucks. The reason for this is that Imperial Japan was effectively a plunder economy and the loot being shipping back to the homeland whilst the USA is an aggressive capitalist system where some of the gains remain in local hands. The latter would thus have less ticked off people, especailly as a larger proportion of the population of their empire of the ruling people (ie American).
I think DBE told me a while back that nukes won't be used, while the US will be offering a great deal of support to anti-Japanese rebels during the war.
Does the concept of mutually assured destruction exist in TTL?
You would think so with the use of Nuclear weapons in Europe and the German-American Anti-Proliferation efforts being widespread. but DBE has said nothing about it.
The concept only applies if you don't have a comprehensive ABM/SAM system. Given the size of the USA and USSR trying to protect the main cities is difficult because they are so spread out. In contrast the main population centres of Japan are concentrated in a much smaller area so it would be worth considering building an ABM/SAM system to protect them, at least against a small force equal in size to the Soviet arsenal circum 1960.
Obviously the USA can counter by building more bombers and missiles. However fighters and ABMs are cheaper so Japan can up its protection on a smaller budget, which it is going to need to as its Empire's economy will be smaller than that of the USA.
Lets see. We have an alternate history where WMDs are routinely used and we are looking about a major power than on our time line looked at using WMDs. I think that it is self evident that the Japanese Empire would use nucs against the USA if only on anti-shipping missiles aimed at CVs.
As for supplying the rebels with weapons, that is going to have to be by sea for a large slice of the empire. The Japanese had Y ranging gear they are going to intercept any surface ship whilst any submersible in their waters that is not theirs is going to be hunted. Therefore there is going to be a shooting war here. As for transporting across the borders of third parties, that is going to last for about as long as Imperial troops don't cross into said third parties.
If the USA is going to just stick to supplying arms it is going to lose the Pacific War. Therefore whilst obviously it is going to do that because it would tie up Imperial troops, it is not going to just piss trying to chip pieces off the Empire. Just as it did on OTL it is going to head for Japan. In reply Japan will use tactical nucs because then one hit on a CV will sink the ship. The USA could try threatening a strike on Japanese cities, but that would put its own at risk so Japan would call its bluff, successfully in my view.
It was suggested during the Cold War that a nuclear war at sea was containable. As long as there is no serious ground fighting I would concur with this.
Since they already made the "Custer" tank, I wonder what the eventual "Morrell" tank will be like? (something like the GDI Mammoth perhaps?)
I think OTL's Abrams would be a safer bet...
P.S. I wonder what would TTL's Bradley be called (if such thing exists at all)?
Why doesn't someone just continue this timeline
Because no one knows where David is taking this TL.
how long since he last updated it?
The last update was over the summer I believe...until DBE says otherwise all we can assume is that he's very busy, so until further notice I propose just continuing discussion of the timeline...who knows, maybe some of the ideas we throw out will strike DBE's fancy and he'll utilize them in the timeline...
One thing that just sprung up in my head is the Interstate System or some variant, OTL had Eisenhower do it, if it happens in TTL, who's up for the task?
Was it ever said what Josh Blackford wanted to do with his life?
I don't know if he wanted to be career Army, but I imagine with having such a prominent political mother he would be on a good track for whatever career he wanted.
Also, concerning the other guy with a famous mother, what do you all think will happen to George Enos Jr? Will he just be a fisherman his whole life?
Before I discovered this thread, I had toyed with the idea of continuing TL-191 myself. One thing I'd be interested to see is what becomes of the various children of the main characters. I do like what DBE did with Cassius Madison post-war; I'd have probably done something similar. As you mention above, I suspected that Josh Blackford would go into the military, presumably as an officer, given the foreshadowing HT supplied. In a couple earlier posts in this thread (here and here), jycee suggested that Alec Pomeroy would become a Che Guevara type revolutionary. My thought was that he'd follow in his mother's and grandfather's footsteps, but instead of using bombs, he might do something else sneaky like sniping important American occupying personnel. And Lucien O'Doull could be the man hired to track Pomeroy down.
I saw the potential for politics in the future of Achilles Driver, Carl Martin, and Mildred Morrell. I imagined Achilles becoming a key figure in the fight for civil rights (and maybe eventually being elected president), Carl becoming a union leader like his father (and also maybe becoming president), and Mildred perhaps going into the military or international diplomacy. I also saw the potential for rabble-rousing in the future of Frank/Willie Blades or Jeff Pinkard Jr., especially Frank, given his comment on how unfair Jeff Sr.'s execution was. For some of the kids, though, I couldn't think of anything interesting, like George Enos Jr., Armstrong Grimes, Yossel Reisen Jr., and Jorge Rodriguez, but then again, I'm not especially creative.
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