The Whale Has Wings (continued)
- Thread starter Astrodragon
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When you say surrounded you mean on the western bank or have the Germans actually managed to put troops across the Volga to totally cut the city off? I probably need to go back and read the last few updates again to help remind myself where things are.
When you say surrounded you mean on the western bank or have the Germans actually managed to put troops across the Volga to totally cut the city off? I probably need to go back and read the last few updates again to help remind myself where things are.
They got troops across and the city is now cut off. Well, sort of, its a pretty larger ring at the moment.
Whether this is a good or bad thing will be shown later...
Its going to end at the wars end. I haven't quite decided when this will be. However the storyline will get less detailed, as we have now diverged a long way from OTL.
Crossing the Volga
Edit:
Ninja'ed by Astrodragon.
Back in this post Astrodragon indicated that the Germans were preparing to cross the Volga north and south of Stalingrad, and in this post Astrodragon seemed to indicate that the German plan in this timeline is to encircle.When you say surrounded you mean on the western bank or have the Germans actually managed to put troops across the Volga to totally cut the city off? I probably need to go back and read the last few updates again to help remind myself where things are.
Edit:
Ninja'ed by Astrodragon.
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Yes, it does appear to have the prospect of being one of those 'Be careful what you wish for' scenarios. Glad to see that Real Life™ is co-operating in letting you come back to this.
usertron2020
Donor
Any German/Axis forces on the Eastern side of the Volga are going to have a VERY tough time of it. IIRC, the terrain there is very poor for defense.
The usual Allied-wank tend to hold to this, but its very wishful thinking. Whether its Hitler, his goons, or a post-Valkyrie government, they aren't going to be able to effect a total Allied overrun of Germany before the Soviets-at the very least-close up completely to the Vistula and take East Prussia.
If the Nazis remain in power, there'd be a more OTL deployment of forces between East & West. If Valkyrie, there'd be so much disruption (the SS falling apart/turning on the Heer?) that even on the Russian Front the Soviets could not fail to take advantage, probably resulting in a sweeping over AGC during Bagration or an easy crossing of the Vistula.
IMVHO, an Allied-Soviet meeting in Warsaw (short of nukes) has always been something of an AH.com chimaera.
When you say surrounded you mean on the western bank or have the Germans actually managed to put troops across the Volga to totally cut the city off? I probably need to go back and read the last few updates again to help remind myself where things are.
Its a bad thing. For the Germans.
I'm posting this because of the course the timeline is steering to. Germans holding out in Russia longer and taking heavier losses while the Allies steam across Europe with little difficulties.Any German/Axis forces on the Eastern side of the Volga are going to have a VERY tough time of it. IIRC, the terrain there is very poor for defense.
The usual Allied-wank tend to hold to this, but its very wishful thinking. Whether its Hitler, his goons, or a post-Valkyrie government, they aren't going to be able to effect a total Allied overrun of Germany before the Soviets-at the very least-close up completely to the Vistula and take East Prussia.
If the Nazis remain in power, there'd be a more OTL deployment of forces between East & West. If Valkyrie, there'd be so much disruption (the SS falling apart/turning on the Heer?) that even on the Russian Front the Soviets could not fail to take advantage, probably resulting in a sweeping over AGC during Bagration or an easy crossing of the Vistula.
IMVHO, an Allied-Soviet meeting in Warsaw (short of nukes) has always been something of an AH.com chimaera.
Its a bad thing. For the Germans.
How built-up was the east bank of the Volga at Stalingrad? The Russians trapped there now and (if they take that side) the Germans later could make it very difficult for anyone to dig them out.
If the Germans can take the east side and maintain enough control over the west to resupply across the river, you're almost dealing with a reverse Stalingrad from OTL.
Saphroneth
Banned
I know that OTL the Germans never really cleared the west bank of the Volga, in some places there were never-eliminated Soviet beach-heads about ten miles deep... and the Romanians weren't exactly inclined to try and clear the bank either, of course.
usertron2020
Donor
Thumb-on-scale, thumb-on-scale, thumb-on-scale.
This is the enemy doing what you want them to do, not what they would do, or even what they CAN do.
THIS is exactly what I mean!
Self-serving logic that dictates the Germans and Soviets playing dumb while the Allies (especially the UK) can do no wrong. Mind, the term "can do no wrong" is an expression, I don't mean to say they've been faultless, even this late in the war. Nevertheless, this was precisely the time when Stalin finally started letting his marshals do their jobs, while OTOH Hitler became more and more "Hitler" as a commander-in-chief/Supreme Warlord.Stalin in the "Meets the Allies in Warsaw" is a popular catspaw in explaining away how the Germans could be so willing to see the Allies win so easily while the Soviets get faced with 90% of Germany's ground manpower right up to VE-Day. (1)
I would posit that with the Western Allies on the brink of knocking the Italians out of World War Two, and all the victories that they have enjoyed in the Pacific and Atlantic, Stalin would be forced by circumstances to be, and for that matter, TO HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME ITTL, more circumspect in his interference over his commanders, especially regarding those marshals and generals he has learned to put his faith in long ago. He isn't going to be launching any "Slaughters of Kharkov" anymore. Stalin wasn't a drooling raving maniac. He isn't Hitler in the Bunker, nor himself after his stroke in 1953.
1) Starve them out.
2) Not really. With the Soviets' tendency to concentrate their all at the most strategic point at the front, you can expect Priority #1 to be against those units across the Volga. That means suicide teams blowing up bridges, whatever is left of the Red Air Force striking those same bridges (as well as targets on the east side of the river. The artillery of the army doing the same, while every armored unit in Russia that can be mustered sent to attack that bridgehead. Add on the number of German ground forces being ground up in Stalingrad itself (and Astrodragon has alluded to this) + the Axis having their railheads so far away and their supply lines so stretched out, and no.
No Stalingrad in reverse. If there's one thing the Soviets had to burn in 1942, its manpower.
Not to mention that the Germans can't ignore (relatively) a collapsing Italy forever.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't they even lack the Italians this time?
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Saphroneth
Banned
One thing I'll note is that a fair number of the mistakes which cost the Red Army a lot of men and tanks in 1942 were not all Stalin's fault - he may have set strategic direction, but he was not responsible for the inept handling of the resultant offensive. (The Red Army's summer offensive involved a huge weight of metal basically being wasted - that was not purely something that can be laid at his feet.)
Conversely, Hitler gave his generals the most free rein in 1941, and they proceeded to do some incredibly stupid things with it. Hitler had some justification for his mistrust of his generals!
(Alan Clarke, Barbarossa)
Conversely, Hitler gave his generals the most free rein in 1941, and they proceeded to do some incredibly stupid things with it. Hitler had some justification for his mistrust of his generals!
(Alan Clarke, Barbarossa)
Thumb-on-scale, thumb-on-scale, thumb-on-scale.
This is the enemy doing what you want them to do, not what they would do, or even what they CAN do.
THIS is exactly what I mean!
Stalin in the "Meets the Allies in Warsaw" is a popular catspaw in explaining away how the Germans could be so willing to see the Allies win so easily while the Soviets get faced with 90% of Germany's ground manpower right up to VE-Day. (1)
I would posit that with the Western Allies on the brink of knocking the Italians out of World War Two, and all the victories that they have enjoyed in the Pacific and Atlantic, Stalin would be forced by circumstances to be, and for that matter, TO HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME ITTL, more circumspect in his interference over his commanders, especially regarding those marshals and generals he has learned to put his faith in long ago. He isn't going to be launching any "Slaughters of Kharkov" anymore. Stalin wasn't a drooling raving maniac. He isn't Hitler in the Bunker, nor himself after his stroke in 1953.
1) Starve them out.
2) Not really. With the Soviets' tendency to concentrate their all at the most strategic point at the front, you can expect Priority #1 to be against those units across the Volga. That means suicide teams blowing up bridges, whatever is left of the Red Air Force striking those same bridges (as well as targets on the east side of the river. The artillery of the army doing the same, while every armored unit in Russia that can be mustered sent to attack that bridgehead. Add on the number of German ground forces being ground up in Stalingrad itself (and Astrodragon has alluded to this) + the Axis having their railheads so far away and their supply lines so stretched out, and no.
No Stalingrad in reverse. If there's one thing the Soviets had to burn in 1942, its manpower.
Not to mention that the Germans can't ignore (relatively) a collapsing Italy forever.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't they even lack the Italians this time?
I never mentioned Warsaw..
As for the Germans, they've just done what they were trying to do in OTL. The fact is, any victory that ends up in attrition is a poisoned chalice for Germany. And there aren't any quick victories left. Not even in Italy.
Hmm. I'll try and reveal more about what is left of Italian involvement next time. But the lack of them is a problem for the Germans, their own troops are better, but they are now spread more thinly.
Stalin is very upset over Stalingrad, but he isn't holding mass executions - yet. But he has been rather incentivising his commanders
Indeed, in TTL it could be that the Western Allies face having the take more of Germany than in the OTL with all the casualties that will result in and have to invade Japan with all those casualties...unless its decided to burn and starve them out.
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