The West Wing Presidential Election (Timeline)
- Thread starter Roedecker
- Start date
No it was clearly stated that DW Newman and Walken (although he had only been Acting President) where the only previous Presidents still alive.
Sweet. I love the West Wing (or rather I love the first 3-4 seasons, the Supremes episode, the Speaker Haffley episodes, and the primary/election campaign).
Executive Order 11905 is also mentioned; it was signed by President Ford in 1976.
The show has stated that there were four Republican presidents in the last thirty years. Nixon and Lassiter are two of these.
My stab at the timeline. POD is that Congress—Speaker Carl Albert—decides that a President stepping down is different from being killed and so sets a special election.
My guess is that 2 years earlier, no pardon for Nixon, and probably no Carter means Ford wins against… Not really sure. I doubt he runs again so we get Reagen (I sincerely doubt anyone else at this point in time in the Republican party) and being a couple years younger just means he does better against…? Mondale? Doubt it.
Speaker Tip O'Neill is a possibility, and he's liberal enough to win the nomination and lose the general in 1978 (1982 may be better). Or maybe the outgoing Speaker, Carl Albert, as he called the special election and maybe regrets Ford winning. Regardless Reagan gets 2 terms.
Newman is likely a Carter-analogue and is the Democrats winning against the Republicans simply because they've been there forever as he's pretty liberal (I think).
I don't know why he loses the next go around. Perhaps the economy goes south or he doesn't (or does) get involved in the Gulf War and it goes differently then in OTL.
Maybe he's just too liberal or gets in a messy nomination fight (a la Ford/Reagen in '76) and Lassiter's a moderate (Leo the Democrat as Labor Secretary in a Republican White House). Bartlet wins the general fairly easy for whatever reasons—sick of Republicans I imagine. Maybe he's basically a Lassiter type and the Republicans run a Reagan conservative type. Since the public liked Lassiter they go with Bartlet especially with Hoynes on the ticket as that keeps him strong in the South.
1972-1974 Nixon (Rep 1)
1974-1978 Ford (Rep 2)
1978-1986 Reagan (Rep 3)
1986 Newman (Dem)
1990-1998 Lassiter (Rep 4)
1998-2006 Bartlet (Dem)
2006 Santos (Dem)
I imagine that Nixon's 49 state victory and one of Reagan's victories count for the two Republican 49 state victory statement. Likewise I can imagine a moderate Republican (Lassiter) losing California but picking up enough other states that he still wins.
Perhaps Reagan being earlier means his taking California in '82 is the last time the Republicans take it and that's why Newman wins in '86.
Executive Order 11905 is also mentioned; it was signed by President Ford in 1976.
The show has stated that there were four Republican presidents in the last thirty years. Nixon and Lassiter are two of these.
My stab at the timeline. POD is that Congress—Speaker Carl Albert—decides that a President stepping down is different from being killed and so sets a special election.
My guess is that 2 years earlier, no pardon for Nixon, and probably no Carter means Ford wins against… Not really sure. I doubt he runs again so we get Reagen (I sincerely doubt anyone else at this point in time in the Republican party) and being a couple years younger just means he does better against…? Mondale? Doubt it.
Speaker Tip O'Neill is a possibility, and he's liberal enough to win the nomination and lose the general in 1978 (1982 may be better). Or maybe the outgoing Speaker, Carl Albert, as he called the special election and maybe regrets Ford winning. Regardless Reagan gets 2 terms.
Newman is likely a Carter-analogue and is the Democrats winning against the Republicans simply because they've been there forever as he's pretty liberal (I think).
I don't know why he loses the next go around. Perhaps the economy goes south or he doesn't (or does) get involved in the Gulf War and it goes differently then in OTL.
Maybe he's just too liberal or gets in a messy nomination fight (a la Ford/Reagen in '76) and Lassiter's a moderate (Leo the Democrat as Labor Secretary in a Republican White House). Bartlet wins the general fairly easy for whatever reasons—sick of Republicans I imagine. Maybe he's basically a Lassiter type and the Republicans run a Reagan conservative type. Since the public liked Lassiter they go with Bartlet especially with Hoynes on the ticket as that keeps him strong in the South.
1972-1974 Nixon (Rep 1)
1974-1978 Ford (Rep 2)
1978-1986 Reagan (Rep 3)
1986 Newman (Dem)
1990-1998 Lassiter (Rep 4)
1998-2006 Bartlet (Dem)
2006 Santos (Dem)
I imagine that Nixon's 49 state victory and one of Reagan's victories count for the two Republican 49 state victory statement. Likewise I can imagine a moderate Republican (Lassiter) losing California but picking up enough other states that he still wins.
Perhaps Reagan being earlier means his taking California in '82 is the last time the Republicans take it and that's why Newman wins in '86.
Last edited:
Michael E Johnson
Banned
Based on the information presented in the series is there the same blue/red state divide in the US or is it different?
The show gave state by state results for 2002 Election as below.
2002
President Bartlet won a re-election landslide over two-term Republican Governor Robert Ritchie of Florida and his running mate Governor Jeff Heston of Utah.
In the general election, held on Tuesday, November 5th 2002 Bartlet was successfully re-elected, winning a majority of the popular vote (which he failed to do four years earlier) by a margin of 11.2% and a landslide in the electoral college.
In the south Bartlet won Louisana, and both North and South Carolina; and made a clean sweep of the Midwest and and the plains states, including the Dakotas — but this was contradicted in the 7th season episode "Election Day" in which it was said no Democrat had won North Dakota in a presidential election in fourty years but this was contradicted by the 4th season episode "Process Story" when President Bartlet says he is the first Democrat to win the Dakotas in "twenty years". ( The 7th season statement is true to the real world as the last Democrat to win North Dakota was Lyndon Johnson which would be 42 years).
Bartlet won the state of Maine with 67% of the vote, which he had lost four years before. He also won New Mexico by just 6,000 votes; however he lost two states that he had won in 1998 : Georgia and Florida(Ritchie's home state).
Popular Vote
as at 11.01 PM November 5th E.S.T)Bartlet & Hoynes 53,766,221 Elec Vote: 423
Ritchie & Heston 42,992,342 Elec Vote: 115
Ritchie won only in Albama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
All the elec college votes where based on our worlds 2000 totals.
The 2006 Presidential election saw a close election.
The Democracts nominated Former Mayor of Houston and Three Term Texas Congressman Matthew Santos with Former White House Chief of Staff and Former Secretary of Labour Leo McGarry as his running mate. Santos had only just managed to gain the monination on the 4th ballot at the convention after a bitter primary battle with Vice President Robert Russell of Colorado and Former Vice President John Hoynes. After the first ballot, The Governor of Pennsylvania Eric Baker who had decided before the Primary campaign not to run threw his hat into the ring, but following revlations about his Wife the race was won by Santos who had started the Primary race as the outsider.
The Republicans after two Presidential Election defeats and after Robert Ritchie landslide defeat in 2002 they turned to California Sentor Arnold Vinick who had outpaced Former Acting President and the Former Speaker of the House Glen Allen Walken and Virgina Rev Don Butler along with someone called Allard to gain the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Vinick picked West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan as his running mate.
It looked like the moderate Vinick would win the election until events worked against. After the only TV debate between Vinick and Santos in September, Santos got a small bump but Vinick still had a clear lead.
Then just four weeks from Election day, a near Nuclear meltdown at the San Andreo Nuclear Powe plant in Vinicks home state suddenly changed the drantic of the race. Vinick had said during the debate that Nuclear Power was safe and it came out that Vinick had lobbed hard back for the Plants building back in the 1980's. The race suddenly became to close to call going into election day Tuesday November 7th 2006.
ELECTION DAY AND RESULTS TO FOLLOW.....
The Democracts nominated Former Mayor of Houston and Three Term Texas Congressman Matthew Santos with Former White House Chief of Staff and Former Secretary of Labour Leo McGarry as his running mate. Santos had only just managed to gain the monination on the 4th ballot at the convention after a bitter primary battle with Vice President Robert Russell of Colorado and Former Vice President John Hoynes. After the first ballot, The Governor of Pennsylvania Eric Baker who had decided before the Primary campaign not to run threw his hat into the ring, but following revlations about his Wife the race was won by Santos who had started the Primary race as the outsider.
The Republicans after two Presidential Election defeats and after Robert Ritchie landslide defeat in 2002 they turned to California Sentor Arnold Vinick who had outpaced Former Acting President and the Former Speaker of the House Glen Allen Walken and Virgina Rev Don Butler along with someone called Allard to gain the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Vinick picked West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan as his running mate.
It looked like the moderate Vinick would win the election until events worked against. After the only TV debate between Vinick and Santos in September, Santos got a small bump but Vinick still had a clear lead.
Then just four weeks from Election day, a near Nuclear meltdown at the San Andreo Nuclear Powe plant in Vinicks home state suddenly changed the drantic of the race. Vinick had said during the debate that Nuclear Power was safe and it came out that Vinick had lobbed hard back for the Plants building back in the 1980's. The race suddenly became to close to call going into election day Tuesday November 7th 2006.
ELECTION DAY AND RESULTS TO FOLLOW.....
2006 Presidential Election
The election started off with a pair of surprises: South Carolina, traditionally a Republican state, but one that President Bartlet had won in 2002 was called for Santos within minutes of polls closing on the East Coast while West Virginia, a traditionally Democratic state (but one which has recently become strongly Republican, and also the home of Vinick's running mate, Ray Sullivan), was called for Vinick. More normal outcomes were had with Pennsylvania going to Santos and Indiana and Kentucky going to Vinick both by 60% to 40%.
The election was thrown into potential chaos when Leo McGarry, Santos' running mate, died from a sudden heart attack. The polls on the west coast were open for another ninety minutes, creating a difficult situation for both campaigns. The Santos campaign wanted to delay the announcement until after polls on the west coast closed, fearing that undecideds in those states might choose to rely on Vinick's experience in the wake of McGarry's passing (though they realized this option was impossible given the number of people outside the campaign who knew about McGarry's death). Some in the Vinick campaign saw McGarry's death as a potential rationale for challenging the election results if the Senator lost (the logic being that people had voted for Santos and McGarry, so the results were tainted by McGarry's death). Vinick vehemently refused to employ this option, finding it unconscionable to use the death of a candidate as a tool for challenging the outcome of an election.
As the night went on, the election became a tit-for-tat, see-saw battle. With the exception of South Carolina, Vinick captured the South and Midwest, including both Ohio and Iowa by 51% to 49% while Santos took the Southwest and most of New England. A welcome surprise for Vinick were his victories in Maine and Vermont, both by 52% to 48%, two states that traditionally vote for Democrats,althoug Bartlet had lost in Maine in 1998. Finally, a big blow was dealt to Vinick when Texas was called for Santos, by 52% to 48% and it looked as if the Democrats were headed towards a surprise runaway victory. Indeed, Vinick believed a Santos win in California was imminent, and was ready to concede the election as soon as it was announced.
That notion was quickly dispelled when California went for Vinick by a mere 80,000 votes, giving him 266 electoral votes to Santos' 260 putting him just 4 electoral votes short of victory with only Oregon (7 electoral votes) and Nevada (5 electoral votes) left in play. While only one of these two states would give Vinick the presidency, Santos would need to win both. Oregon was first, going into the Santos column by just 2,000 votes and making the electoral college count 267 for Santos and 266 for Vinick. That left Nevada as a "winner-take-all" for either side, a strange situation since Santos had conceded Nevada (a traditionally Republican-leaning state) to Vinick early on in the race, while Vinick's campaign had gutted their Nevada operations to focus on California.
Finally at 5:45 AM EST on Wednesday November 8, 2006, Nevada was called for Santos, handing him both the election and the presidency. Vinick chose to concede the election rather than contest the slim margin of defeat in the Silver State (just 30,000 votes) as all his senior advisers told him to do and called Santos to congratulate him on his victory. Once the absentee ballots were counted, Santos' margin of victory in Nevada was announced as 70,000 votes.
Santos & McGarry 272 elec Votes
Vinick & Sullivan 266 elec Votes
The actual popular vote totals were never specified, but it can be clearly heard twice that Vinick was winning the popular vote by around a million votes on the TV coverage. Vinick is confirmed to have won the popular vote in the episode "The Last Hurrah" although no margin or total was given.
The election started off with a pair of surprises: South Carolina, traditionally a Republican state, but one that President Bartlet had won in 2002 was called for Santos within minutes of polls closing on the East Coast while West Virginia, a traditionally Democratic state (but one which has recently become strongly Republican, and also the home of Vinick's running mate, Ray Sullivan), was called for Vinick. More normal outcomes were had with Pennsylvania going to Santos and Indiana and Kentucky going to Vinick both by 60% to 40%.
The election was thrown into potential chaos when Leo McGarry, Santos' running mate, died from a sudden heart attack. The polls on the west coast were open for another ninety minutes, creating a difficult situation for both campaigns. The Santos campaign wanted to delay the announcement until after polls on the west coast closed, fearing that undecideds in those states might choose to rely on Vinick's experience in the wake of McGarry's passing (though they realized this option was impossible given the number of people outside the campaign who knew about McGarry's death). Some in the Vinick campaign saw McGarry's death as a potential rationale for challenging the election results if the Senator lost (the logic being that people had voted for Santos and McGarry, so the results were tainted by McGarry's death). Vinick vehemently refused to employ this option, finding it unconscionable to use the death of a candidate as a tool for challenging the outcome of an election.
As the night went on, the election became a tit-for-tat, see-saw battle. With the exception of South Carolina, Vinick captured the South and Midwest, including both Ohio and Iowa by 51% to 49% while Santos took the Southwest and most of New England. A welcome surprise for Vinick were his victories in Maine and Vermont, both by 52% to 48%, two states that traditionally vote for Democrats,althoug Bartlet had lost in Maine in 1998. Finally, a big blow was dealt to Vinick when Texas was called for Santos, by 52% to 48% and it looked as if the Democrats were headed towards a surprise runaway victory. Indeed, Vinick believed a Santos win in California was imminent, and was ready to concede the election as soon as it was announced.
That notion was quickly dispelled when California went for Vinick by a mere 80,000 votes, giving him 266 electoral votes to Santos' 260 putting him just 4 electoral votes short of victory with only Oregon (7 electoral votes) and Nevada (5 electoral votes) left in play. While only one of these two states would give Vinick the presidency, Santos would need to win both. Oregon was first, going into the Santos column by just 2,000 votes and making the electoral college count 267 for Santos and 266 for Vinick. That left Nevada as a "winner-take-all" for either side, a strange situation since Santos had conceded Nevada (a traditionally Republican-leaning state) to Vinick early on in the race, while Vinick's campaign had gutted their Nevada operations to focus on California.
Finally at 5:45 AM EST on Wednesday November 8, 2006, Nevada was called for Santos, handing him both the election and the presidency. Vinick chose to concede the election rather than contest the slim margin of defeat in the Silver State (just 30,000 votes) as all his senior advisers told him to do and called Santos to congratulate him on his victory. Once the absentee ballots were counted, Santos' margin of victory in Nevada was announced as 70,000 votes.
Santos & McGarry 272 elec Votes
Vinick & Sullivan 266 elec Votes
The actual popular vote totals were never specified, but it can be clearly heard twice that Vinick was winning the popular vote by around a million votes on the TV coverage. Vinick is confirmed to have won the popular vote in the episode "The Last Hurrah" although no margin or total was given.
The 2006 election states that had different results compared to our world's 2004 election.
States Won by Kerry (Dem) in real world in but won by Vinick (Rep)in 2006.
California
Maine
Vermont
States Won by Bush(Rep) in real world but won by Santos (Dem) in 2006.
Arizona
Colorado
Missouri
New Mexico
Nevada
South Carolina
Texas
NOTES
Only ten states changed between the "real" 2004 election and the West Wing election of 2006.
The south (apart from South Carloina) still went to Vinick as the 2004 election.
Santos winning in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas are beliveable in context of the 2006 election as he was from Texas, and both states have been close in the "real world" elections in recent times. The same goes for Nevada. As for Colorado The Santos campaign didnt't expect win in Colorado so it was a surprise.
As for Vinick's wins in three states that in the "real" 2004 election went to Kerry, well California was close helped that Vinick was the senior Sentor.
Maine going to a moderate Republican like Vinick is no real surpise, also in the "West Wing" world Bartlet lost in Maine in 1998, as for Vermont, well I have no real answer for that.
To answer the orginal question is there still a state divide, then it must be yes.
States Won by Kerry (Dem) in real world in but won by Vinick (Rep)in 2006.
California
Maine
Vermont
States Won by Bush(Rep) in real world but won by Santos (Dem) in 2006.
Arizona
Colorado
Missouri
New Mexico
Nevada
South Carolina
Texas
NOTES
Only ten states changed between the "real" 2004 election and the West Wing election of 2006.
The south (apart from South Carloina) still went to Vinick as the 2004 election.
Santos winning in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas are beliveable in context of the 2006 election as he was from Texas, and both states have been close in the "real world" elections in recent times. The same goes for Nevada. As for Colorado The Santos campaign didnt't expect win in Colorado so it was a surprise.
As for Vinick's wins in three states that in the "real" 2004 election went to Kerry, well California was close helped that Vinick was the senior Sentor.
Maine going to a moderate Republican like Vinick is no real surpise, also in the "West Wing" world Bartlet lost in Maine in 1998, as for Vermont, well I have no real answer for that.
To answer the orginal question is there still a state divide, then it must be yes.
In the context of this election, it was not strange, as both Parties had candidates which could won those states which are normally won by the other party. Don't forget in the real world California was last won by the Republicans in the 1988 election by Bush, although the last time Texas went Dem was in 1976. The only reason Texas was won by the Dems was due to Santos. Calfornia was won by Vinick by just 80,000 votes.
I have had a thought about the Lassister and Calfornia question.
I thought even know Lassister's Presidential Library was in Calfornia meaning he was born there, it doesn't mean that it was his home state during any of the elections he fought. In the real world, for example Woodrow Wilson was from Georgia but his "home state" in 1912 and 1916 was New Jersey.
That's the way around it I think.
I thought even know Lassister's Presidential Library was in Calfornia meaning he was born there, it doesn't mean that it was his home state during any of the elections he fought. In the real world, for example Woodrow Wilson was from Georgia but his "home state" in 1912 and 1916 was New Jersey.
That's the way around it I think.
Just some information below of "real world" events mentioned during the series.
The 1972 Olympic Games in Munich, the U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, the Three Mile Island Nuclear accident, the wreck of the Exxon Valdez, the first Gulf War, U.S. military operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communism, the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, the 1986 bombing of Tripoli in Libya, the 1989 Tiananmen Square events in the People's Republic of China, and the 1998 Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement.
The 1972 Olympic Games in Munich, the U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, the Three Mile Island Nuclear accident, the wreck of the Exxon Valdez, the first Gulf War, U.S. military operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communism, the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, the 1986 bombing of Tripoli in Libya, the 1989 Tiananmen Square events in the People's Republic of China, and the 1998 Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement.
Good coverage of the West Wing World.
That said, Woodrow Wilson was from Virginia, not Georgia.
Wiki says that it was only hinted that Newman, Walken, and Bartlet were the only presidents left alive, and from what I remember from the episode, they never went into detail about which presidents were still left alive.
Good West Wing election coverage, BTW.
That was the orginial plan, that Vinick would win and end the series with a moderate likeable Republican in the White House, but the tragic death of John Spencer during the filiming of the final series forced the writers to change the outcome of the election , because they didn't want Santos to lose both the election and his running mate, so it was decided to have him win but very, very narrowly and also to make Vinick become Santos Secretary of State.
While I understand their change, I disagree with their having done it.
I have to agree with you, I wanted Vinick to win. Why I liked Santos as a character Vinick moved above the idea that all Republicans where nasty (thanks to George W. Bush most people here in the UK have that opinion of Republican rightly or wrongly) and that you could have a likable good Republican President.
I would like to like see what happens with the Santos Presidency, it was clear that Ray Sullivan (Vinicks Running-Mate) would be the front-runner in 2010.
I largely (but not wholly) agreed with Vinick on the issues, but agree that he would have been better for the Office-and his party-than George W. Bush. Vinick reflects something that the GOP has lost since the 1990's.