Oh, wait. Do you know if Brazil would become like Nicholas I of Europe, and police every South American war? Like for example would this more aggressive Brazil intervene in wars like the Pacific war, or War for the Peru-Bolivia confederation?
The Want for a Pineapple (A Brazilian empire timeline)
- Thread starter Incanian
- Start date
Oh, wait. Do you know if Brazil would become like Nicholas I of Europe, and police every South American war? Like for example would this more aggressive Brazil intervene in wars like the Pacific war, or War for the Peru-Bolivia confederation?
Nah, there's no practical reason to do that. Brazilian interests were mostly limited to the Platine reasons, for reasons which were both political (control of the La Plata basin) and geographical (all other land borders are restricted by the Amazon, making projection of power pretty much impossible with 19th century logistics).
So if the Portuguese Brazilians wanted to gain more regional, and global power, couldn't they just get rid of a lot of Amazon rainforest for agriculture, regional power, and to maybe stretch out the population. And this is interesting because you mentioned a British-Portuguese/Brazilian war over the Atlantic slave trade. So we could have this new Portuguese empire in Brazil cutting down a lot of the rainforest to make room for agriculture, then be putting their slave trade in overdrive to make as much money off the fertile grassland as possible. Then Britan wanting to stop the last remnant of the Atlantic slave trade gives an ultimatum to stop the import of slaves, or it's war. The Portuguese emperor declines, seeing how this opportunity could make Brazil the most powerful nation in South America, and even both American Continents, and making the Americas, and southern hemisphere centred around Brazil, and maybe even influencing European politics with its might. Then Britan declares war.
Now If this war was to happen on a timeline were During the Napoleonic wars the Portuguese royal family flees and stays in Brazil, and Portugal and the rest of the Portuguese empire's colonies become colonies of a relocated Portuguese empire, and we have the Emperor cutting down parts of the Amazon rainforest for agricultural purposes, then kicking slave exports into hyperdrive, causing war with Britan, could we see this type of war escalates, and inflame South, and Latin America. Could we see this war becoming 'South Americas World war" And maybe even spilling over into Europe?
Could you find a date to which this war between the Relocated Portuguese empire and British empire could happen? Would it involve other South, and Latin American powers, and could European ones get involved, or even America?
Damn this is a good scenario.
Ample deforestation simply is not possible with 19th century tech. To give perspective, in 1820 the Brazilian population was around 5,000,000. By the time the Empire ended, after immigration, population growth and unusually massive slave trade, it was still just 9,000,000. Brazil is huge. There's no proper incentive to settle the hinterland while there is so many more lands available near the coast, with less impenetrable forest and fewer diseases that could kill you.
The problem is not merely a logistical/demographic one. The soil occupied by much of the Amazon (e.g. the states of Goias and Mato Grosso) aren't fertile in the 19th century. It took until the second half of the 20th century for companies to figure out a way to make that soil productive, and only after that did deforestation become the issue we all know of today. This sort of agricultural expansion cannot happen in the 19th century, especially not employing slave labor (historically using slaves as the work force vastly decreases land productivity over time, which is even worse than it sounds when you consider that your initial soil wasn't that productive to begin with).
The war against Britain would most likely take place in the early 1850's, if it happens. I don't think other European powers would be involved, but Argentina might try something in the South if their government is hostile to Brazil at the time.
If there was a war against Britan, who would win such a hypothetical war?
Wouldn't it depend on where the Capital is? Because if it's coastal, the Royal Navy could bombard it.
Britain failed to successfully intervene in La Plata ca. 1810 or so. Brazil would be an even harder nut to crack.
Yeah, I Remember that. All Brazil would lose would be Angola and Mozambique, unless there is a foreign power coming in. Speaking of wars, would the Paraguayan war be any different in this scenario?
Not necessarily. Britain might just enforce the slave trade ban and leave. That is, if it even comes to war; it's a long shot.
With a 1820 POD it's certainly going to be different. The Paraguayan War was just bizarre, there's no guarantee it would happen. Unlike the wars against Argentina, which are quite structural for the Platine subsystem of the time.
Yeah, the Paraguayan war necessarily didn't have to happen. Although if there is no Paraguayan war, we may see a Brazilian, Paraguayan alliance. Since Paraguay lost 60% of its population in the war, if it never happens, Brazil/Portugal might ask for an alliance, or Paraguay might ask one against it's larger neighbours.
My take on this situation:
-There is little to no feasible way for a Brazil centered Monarchy to be able to hold on to Metropolitan Portugal. It's one thing for the crown to run to the colonies when they lose the mainland and become a Government-in-Exile, it's another thing for said government to decide it likes the colony better and is going to stay there. No one in Portugal is going to agree to that.
-Assuming the crown stays in Brazil, it would need to be capable of not only controlling the nations continental territory (no easy feat), but, if it somehow held on to the colonies, have the capacity to project power towards the colonies.
-Brazil, as is the case with most of South America, will have a hard time trying to become a regional power, much less a great power, due to developmental challenges caused by it's geography.
Among those challenges:
-A large part of Brazil's territory is located in the equatorial zone, making it tropical. Enormous tracts of jungle are very bad for human economic activity, making just clearing the land have onerous costs. The soil is poor in a lot of the country, disease runs rampant, the climate is often way too humid to allow grains to ripen. Even when rivers are navigable their banks are too muddy for construction, as happens with the amazon
It's very hard too adopt a developmental economic policy in Brazil, but without it, I don't think it could become a regional power, let alone a great power.
-There is little to no feasible way for a Brazil centered Monarchy to be able to hold on to Metropolitan Portugal. It's one thing for the crown to run to the colonies when they lose the mainland and become a Government-in-Exile, it's another thing for said government to decide it likes the colony better and is going to stay there. No one in Portugal is going to agree to that.
-Assuming the crown stays in Brazil, it would need to be capable of not only controlling the nations continental territory (no easy feat), but, if it somehow held on to the colonies, have the capacity to project power towards the colonies.
-Brazil, as is the case with most of South America, will have a hard time trying to become a regional power, much less a great power, due to developmental challenges caused by it's geography.
Among those challenges:
-A large part of Brazil's territory is located in the equatorial zone, making it tropical. Enormous tracts of jungle are very bad for human economic activity, making just clearing the land have onerous costs. The soil is poor in a lot of the country, disease runs rampant, the climate is often way too humid to allow grains to ripen. Even when rivers are navigable their banks are too muddy for construction, as happens with the amazon
It's very hard too adopt a developmental economic policy in Brazil, but without it, I don't think it could become a regional power, let alone a great power.
Last edited:
Miguel Lanius
Banned
From what I read, the Braganças' Master Plan was to stay in Brazil and expand south towards the Plata.
Honestly, between much of the Portuguese Army and its best soldiers and ships, the lack of a war with Portugal, debt and such things, I think the Cisplatineans and their southern cousins might be well and truly fucked. Paraguay will probably ally with Brazil, tho, there's no interest in Brazil expanding to that direction. Perhaps a few border corrections.
A lot of people will prefer to see a powerful european absolute monarchy to a liberal republic. The British won't mind because they already own the Luso-Brazilian economy anyway. The Spanish will probably be pissed, but nobody cares about them.
Oh yeah, I'm not sure the Portuguese will want to give back French Guyana.
Honestly, between much of the Portuguese Army and its best soldiers and ships, the lack of a war with Portugal, debt and such things, I think the Cisplatineans and their southern cousins might be well and truly fucked. Paraguay will probably ally with Brazil, tho, there's no interest in Brazil expanding to that direction. Perhaps a few border corrections.
A lot of people will prefer to see a powerful european absolute monarchy to a liberal republic. The British won't mind because they already own the Luso-Brazilian economy anyway. The Spanish will probably be pissed, but nobody cares about them.
Oh yeah, I'm not sure the Portuguese will want to give back French Guyana.
Miguel Lanius
Banned
I wonder if we could see an alternate Cabanagem. I read somewhere that Cabanagem was inspired by brazilian troops from Pará who went to French Guyana and were influenced by French Jacobinism and brought it back. One of the main causes of the Cabanagem was that the rulers of Grão-Pará were then a bunch of greedy, self-interest portuguese people, and when independence happened, they surrendered to the Empire rather than resist, which resulted in the portuguese local elites staying in charge.
On the other hand, one of the reasons for the Cabanagem was the Tragedy of the Brig Palhaço. That was just pure, free attrocity for pretty much no reason. All the men involved in that mess should have been court-martialed and shot.
On the other hand, one of the reasons for the Cabanagem was the Tragedy of the Brig Palhaço. That was just pure, free attrocity for pretty much no reason. All the men involved in that mess should have been court-martialed and shot.
Easy. OTL even. When the Dutch conquered Angola in the 17th century, it was Rio de Janeiro that sent the expeditionary force to take it back, rather than Lisbon. By the 19th century the African colonies are far more intrinsically linked to Brazil than Portugal. The only reason why Portugal retained them in the end was that Brazil didn't push the matter in the independence war, since if the slaves kept flowing in all would be good anyway.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by that. Brazil has been a regional power for most of its existence, if not all. I'm also not certain whether I like an argument fundamentally based on geographical determinism, but I will agree with you that there aren't many incentives for an early Brazilian industrialization, and hence there's little chance of achieving great power status.
I didn't express myself correctly. Brazil has been a regional power for most of it's existence, what I mean is that without many of the national developmental policies that characterized (and still do) Brazilian economic policy, that likely wouldn't be true.