And I am betting most of the independent SEA countries, like Indonesia and the Philipines don't like Technocratic China bearing down on them either.
I suspect the ComNat would be staffing the Changi Naval Base in Singapore, Malaya with lots of naval assets and personnel, as well as the United States Navy in Subic Bay in order to contain China navally.
I'm pretty sure that the US never held the Philippines ITTL, so that doesn't seem likely.
Agreed with the rest of it, though don't know if China has been expanding its sea power. I think I remember some talk about easing the restrictions on Japan so they can help counterbalance China.