Terms of the Treaty of Crépy (1544):

-Both King Francis I of France and Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor abandon their various conflicting claims and restore the status quo of 1538: the Emperor would relinquish his claim to the Duchy of Burgundy and the King of France would do the same in regards to the Kingdom of Naples, as well as renouncing his claims to Flanders and Artois.
-The Duke of Orleans would marry either HRE's daughter Maria of Austria or his neice, Anna of Austria. The choice would be made by HRE. If the young Duke was to marry Maria, the bride would receive the Netherlands and Franche-Comté as a dowry, whilst Orléans would be granted the duchies of Bourbon, Chatellerault and Angouleme. In the second instance, if the Duke married Anna of Austria, she would instead receive as a dowry the Duchy of Milan.
-King Francis would assist Charles V against the Ottomans-but not, officially, against the heretics of his own domains.
-King Francis would assist Charles with reforming the church, with calling a General Council, and with suppressing Protestantism- by force if necessary.

The treaty was pretty unpopular with King Henry VIII of England, the Dauphin of France and the Sultan. However, it does seem both parties were actually going to commit to this, King Francis already taking steps to fulfil his side of the bargain. However, the treaty was rendered moot in 1545 with the death of the young Duke of Orléans.

POD: Charles of Valois, Duke of Orleans, does not die in 1545 after taking a jolly stroll through a plague-infested village for shits and giggles. Instead, he lives.

Of the two proposed marriages, I think a marriage to Maria of Austria would be the most interesting:

-The Dauphin of France, future King Henry II, resented his brother Charles, Duke of Orleans, due to him being their father’s very obvious favourite. Tensions between the two would only get worse once you give Charles is own domains with the power of a monarch and make him completely independent from his brother (plus, Henry was not a fan of the idea of his little brother marrying the eldest daughter of the HRE, whilst all he got was a Medici).

-They would rule the Netherlands, so, there is most certainly going to be some problems there (Maria was an incredibly staunch Catholic, there is gunna be no swaying her towards any sort of leniency for protestants, think Bloody Mary with some charisma).

-Any children of theirs (if events were to go similarly as OTL) have a good chance of ruling France.

-Charles’s position at the French court would be incredibly interesting; the most powerful noble there by far, with strong ties to the HRE and future King of Spain, and beloved and trusted by the nobles (who in OTL would have preferred he take the throne over his brother).


P.S: when researching I try to avoid Wikipedia, or at least only use it as a starting point. HOWEVER, ‘Charles II de Valois, Duke of Orléans’ page is the first time I have ever laughed reading Wikipedia:

“On 6 September, they came across a cluster of houses that had been emptied and sealed off "from the plague"—probably a form of influenza. Stating that "no son of a King of France ever died of plague", Charles entered some of the infected houses with his brother.[3] Laughing, he slashed at bedding with his sword and started a pillow fight with some of his traveling companions. Stories have also been told of him (on a dare) lying down on one of the infected beds and rolling around on the bedding.”

“Charles was known for his wild antics. Stories have it that once he jumped up behind Charles V, Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, and his father's sworn enemy and shouted, "You are my prisoner". Apparently, Charles V spurred his horse into a frantic gallop without once looking behind him. His brother, Henry, was delighted at the fright his brother gave the Emperor.”

(He would be so fun to write!)



So, what would have to happen to ensure Charle’s marriage to Maria of Austria rather than Anna of Austria?
 
Probably avoid giving him TOO much. While Karl and François are both committed to Crépy, François knows the problem it's gonna cause down the line. And if he doesn't, he's an idiot.

What about saying François/Karl must split what they want. Until Karl ponies up with Burgundy, Charles is duc d'Orléans, Bourbon and Châtellerault etc. Once Karl hands off Burgundy (which he only did once he was dead IIRC - despite giving everything else up - IDK if he'd give it up earlier here) Charles goes off to Burgundy. By this point he and Maria presumably have kids. Eldest son is recognized as heir to Burgundy. A second son to his dad's French domains and kept in Paris as a sort of "hostage". If there's only one son when Charles dies, everything besides (perhaps not) the dukedom of Orléans reverts back to the French crown.
 
100% Charles V is looking to cause problems and hopes in giving the Netherlands to the Duke of Orleans he can pit the brothers against one another. So he is all for it. I think the motivation for Francis, other than being broke/pretty much destitute, is the fact that Orleans was his favourite son, by far. He doted on him and I think in a way Francis may have been slightly blinded to the problems that would arise in the future if it meant his son got him a ‘world’s best dad’ mug. The Netherlands and Maria of Austria are a massive prize that Orleans would never, ever have expected. He would have most likely been married off to a highborn French heiress or the daughter of a powerful noble, with some good lands in France and would have lived a pretty cushy life at court as the life and soul of the party. Here, he is getting to play King with probably the most eligible match (who isn’t a queen or going to be a queen in her own right) in Europe.


I think the driving force behind them both honouring the Treaty is the fact that neither of them can afford not to. They are kind of stuck in a stalemate, they just waiting to see who will make the first move. I believe that if Orleans had survived it is likely he would have married either Maria or Anna. However, I don’t know what would have made Charles decide on Maria. The treaty was very specific that it would be him who chose the bride. So, what would make him choose Maria rather than Anna of Austria?


As for Burgundy, why would Charles V, who has already agreed to give his daughter the Netherlands as her dowry, decide against that and instead demand they have Burgundy?
 
why would Charles V, who has already agreed to give his daughter the Netherlands as her dowry, decide against that and instead demand they have Burgundy?

Its promised as dowry but that doesn't mean he has to cough it up just yet, he can get Maria acknowledged as his heir in the Low Countries, but doesn't actually have to "give" it to her right away. It would mean putting a rather large source of wealth into the hands of either his enemy (François I/Henri II) or not being able to touch the wealth. If he abdicates in Maria's favour and then needs money from the Estates to fight the Turks/Protestants/insert name here, Maria can bitch at them all she likes, the Estates will probably just say "what has Brussels to do with Madrid/Vienna/Buda?" if they need to shoulder a share of Karl's debts.

It's like a father giving his kid a car and a house from his collection of both. But every time he needs money he comes to try and persuade the kid to sell the car/house; or worse, he comes and squats by them until they have to pay him to go away.
It's a poor comparison, but it's the best I've got at the moment.
 
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