The Southern Roman Empire.

[Filo]

I am a little bit tired of Scifi. So i'll start this new project (not new at all, being another setting for GURPS i'll created many years ago).

In This timeline, Heraclius the Younger, instead of sailing from Carthage to Constantinople, decided to stay in African City, dooming the Empire in the East, but saving it in the west.

Being the winner, Sassanid Empire didn't fall to Arabs. And defeated by the Great Kings, islam reverted(or become, depending on how you look at it) to a monophysite cult.
As usual i'll post images and brief descriptions.

 

[Filo]

Ok. I need some advice.
Date the survival of the Western Roman Empire, and considering a path not dissimilar to that which it would have had in the East (for the sake of simplicity, to be honest), after a rather complex 8th century (Berber uprisings and wars with Egypt), the rise to power of a dynasty capable of holding the reins of the state (like the Isaurians in Homeline, who in this TL are the founders of Greater Armenia) would inevitably lead to attempts at reconquest both in Spain and Italy (against the Visigoths and Lombards), given a more or less traditional friendship between the Franks and the Romans. How could the possibility of a Charlemagne be inserted (if it is inserted at all) in this TL?

The Roman Emperors, having lost the non Calchedonian provinces to Persians or Arabs, have no need to search a compromise solution to christological problems, so need no to create conflicts with Rome and the Pope.
Also, being so near to Italy means to be able to aid the Pope against the Lombards more effectively. In this way, the Pope would not need to rely on the support of the Frankish kings to defend his political independence. On the other hand, it could be argued that a much closer emperor (The figs of Carthage, of Cato's memory) could push the Papacy to seek an alliance, if not with the Franks, then with the Visigoths?

The Visigoths are another interesting point of divergence. A more nearer empire could be more effective in defend the south of Spain? of without the muslim Invasion, Reccaredo could become a more powerful ruler?

 

[Nuraghe]

your idea is very interesting, but I think that before analyzing the foreign policy of this Rome of Africa or Latin Carthage (sweet sound and tremendous irony) Heraclius must concentrate on the internal problems of the new capital (the relationship with the Berbers, the ecclesiastical problem caused by his predecessors in Constantinople) then once this is done one can focus on international affairs (primarily Visigothic Spain (which is the enemy of both the Franks and the Romans, the first point in common between them) which due to its internal politics (the king is elected among the nobles, and has a reduced power) this peculiarity can be exploited to defend and then expand the Roman territory in the peninsula, then we have Italy which is divided between Romans (in turn in conflict between Latin natives ousted and the Greek Rhomanoi occupying and exploiting all government roles) then we have the discontent of the Romans under the Lombards (who would rather remain under the barbarians than end up under the hateful Greeks (a serious problem for the imperial authority in the region, the gothic war severely destroyed roman identity in the peninsula, but the fault lies entirely with the rhomanoi ( i use the term in greek because the proto-italians started an us versus them dichotomy about being roman ( latin/ greek ) and how the empire managed the peninsula after the reconquest (very badly) and they preferred to be barbarians or Romans in the papal sense (referring to the authority of the pope as their own and independent identity) without forgetting the
islands (Sardinia, Corsica and Sicily) perhaps Rome becomes a thalassocratic power to be able to initially manage its non-contiguous territories, while for the Franks I easily see an alliance supported by the pope (although I believe that Rome will want to exploit every possible opportunity to get one foot back in Gaul, already Maurice wanted to create a Gallic Exarchate during a Frankish civil war)

 

[Evil Crusader]

Yeah, it needs context. Lots of context. It may have worked as a fast and loose GURPS setting, but to work as a timeline, details are needed.
First and foremost - which are the borders of this 'Southern Roman Empire'? If they don't hold Egypt nor the Balkans, their taxbase and manpower are simply insufficient to being anything more than a major local player - with climate changes to come not helping. They can be a thalassocracy, but actually undertaking conquest campaigns will be hard.
The religious issues are a close second, but those should be easier overall as this Empire very much cares about keeping the Pope on board; but what is its relationship with its many neighbors, that remains to be seen. A brief outline of where you see them headed probably helps.

 

[Filo]

The idea of Thalassocracy is very compelling and surely i'll point in that direction. I can image Carthage to be the center of western Mediterranean sea trade, but also of the vast Sahara desert (a sea in his own right, in some way). I can also see the greek elements to be, slowly, adsorbed in a latin speaking world, although remaining an important part of the Roman cultural world (on the other hand much of South Italy is speaking Greek, sometimes until very recently). In the long run a "Lingua Mora" could arose mixing Amazigh and latin...but i'm running ahead of time

A total reconquest of Italy is, IMHO, out of question. But may be southern Italy could be reasonable, giving some military minded Emperor like a TTL version of John Tzimiske or Basil II.

 

[Filo]

Yeah, it needs context. Lots of context. It may have worked as a fast and loose GURPS setting, but to work as a timeline, details are needed.
First and foremost - which are the borders of this 'Southern Roman Empire'? If they don't hold Egypt nor the Balkans, their taxbase and manpower are simply insufficient to being anything more than a major local player - with climate changes to come not helping. They can be a thalassocracy, but actually undertaking conquest campaigns will be hard.
The religious issues are a close second, but those should be easier overall as this Empire very much cares about keeping the Pope on board; but what is its relationship with its many neighbors, that remains to be seen. A brief outline of where you see them headed probably helps.

Sicily was rich and Africa (meaning the province of Africa) was not contemptible.
Zavagno, in his paper, tells that the city live in western Mediterranean sea never completely collapsed and on this judgement is also Barbero.
Zavagno, yet, argues that the idea of depopulation caused by Islamic raids in 7th and 8th century is to be rewied...so in this world, where Islam is at beast a christian heresy, i could argue that Sardinia and Sicily could be a good resources of revenues and men.

I think that the true problem are the Amazigh. The wars against them drained all the resources of Roman Africa (Whittow 1996, if i recall correctly or Pontani 2017).
If Heraclius or his successors, could be able to pacified the Amazigh, then Roman Africa could be look at others objectives.

In TTL Egypt, although christian, is more persianized and more interested in recover the right over the M.E than Africa or the west and has to fight at least three enemies (The arab empire, Persia and Armenia or another roman successor state in the north)

 

[Nuraghe]

The idea of Thalassocracy is very compelling and surely i'll point in that direction. I can image Carthage to be the center of western Mediterranean sea trade, but also of the vast Sahara desert (a sea in his own right, in some way). I can also see the greek elements to be, slowly, adsorbed in a latin speaking world, although remaining an important part of the Roman cultural world (on the other hand much of South Italy is speaking Greek, sometimes until very recently). In the long run a "Lingua Mora" could arose mixing Amazigh and latin...but i'm running ahead of time

A total reconquest of Italy is, IMHO, out of question. But may be southern Italy could be reasonable, giving some military minded Emperor like a TTL version of John Tzimiske or Basil II.

I believe that Heraclius will have to focus easily on Latin as Otl did with Greek (since southern Italy belongs (a linguistically mixed Latin/Greek region) the rest of his possessions speak exclusively a variant of Latin (albeit divergent from each other) moreover Carthage was the second most important city of the WRE and for Latin speakers (second only to Rome itself in this field) including also the political actors with whom the Rome of Africa will interact

well technically Otl the Amazinght before the Arab invasion were evolving towards a proto-Berber Roman ethnic group (similar to the process that happened in Western Europe with the Roman-barbarian kingdoms, where the best example are obviously the Franks) in fact it is thought that the African romance was evolving being influenced by some words of Berber origin, in a language different from the other proto -romantic languages

 

[Evil Crusader]

Ok, so avoiding the rise of Islam probably helps somewhat keeping up the Mediterranean trade that OTL dried up and helped seal Roman Africa's fate. But I still don't think climate evolution is on the side of SRE here - it will drive up conflict with the Amazigh before the trans-Saharan commerce as we know it can start.
The SRE would probably outright inherit ERE positions west of Istria and Otranto here, and thus be drawn into conflict with the Lombards; on one hand they can and will focus on it, on the other it's a fairly hard struggle unless they strike a deal with the Franks. There is a nonzero chance the capital gets relocated to Syracusae, well positioned and threat free, and if they ever recover Rome, it would prove hard not to go back to it.

Meanwhile, where do you see the other realms leading? Any requirement?

 

[Hawkeye]

Disappointed that this isn't about a breakaway Roman colony in the Southern states and speaks a Romance language with a Southern drawl.

 

[Filo]

Ostrogorsky said that Costans II resided in Syracuse. So, Probably Sicily will become the center of Empire both for the plentiful of Island, Islamic Sicily was one of the most rich lands of Dar-Al-Islam (Fenillo 2011) and we could argue can be rich under the Romans, and for the central position in the Mediterranean sea.

For other kingdoms/empires:
Persian Empire is the winner of the Roman-Persian wars, but i can see Arabs forcing them to retreat at least from Iraq and Syria, while Egypt and Armenia in the long (or Short, if Arabs hit Persia Hard) run break away from Ctesiphon (if the Shahanshah still holds the city) because they are Christians.
I know relatively little of ancient/medieval Armenia, but i could imagine a strong dynasty could be able to control Caucasus(or at least Georgia) and Anatolia ad least in the central Plateau.
Egypt becomes independent from Persia earlier than Homeline Egypt from Caliphate. I don't believe Sassanids could have the force to convert the land to Zoroastrianism, also if i can imagine that the ruling elite could be follower of Zarathustra(May be successors and descendants of Saralaneozan? Sanger 2011). Tolunid Egypt meddled in Palestina and Syria, so i saw also TTL Egypt doing the same.
Middle-East, so, is locked in a confrontation between Egypt, Armenia, Arab Caliphate/State and Iran (A Samanid Iran, perhaps?)
Giving space to SRE to defend Lybia and consolidate its strongholds in West/Med

More difficult to decide what could happen in the west. Franks were usually sympathetic with Romans (although Lin points on early conflicts, when the gothic war just ended).
Depending on what the SRE shall do, Franks could be stay allied (SRE going south, in Africa) or enemies, competing for Italy (and may be the Franks could take the roles of the Bulgarians) .
Visigothic Spain seems less desperate here, SRE probably, has not the force to regain much land there (could i argue not more than south the Guadalquivir?). Squized between Frankish domains and a SRE lands could led to a strengthening of Visigothic Spain. Or at least i like to see this way.

In the east Avar Knanate is doomed to fall as usual for the steppes polities, a Bulgarian one could take its place for a while, but i could say that Serbia or Croata here entered earlier in Christendom with all this comport.
Another concerning point is the western Anatolia, where probably i can imagine a some sort of Roman successor state (a Nicean Empire of sort, but quite unsure for now)

I am not inclined to venture too far into the future. I could reach the year 6712 AM (Anno Mundi), which is equivalent to 1204 AD, and then see.

 

[Filo]

I could imagine a SRE Emperor dressing this way.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Generally speaking, Syracusae is a good capital because it's rich, well-positioned, and most importantly, not easily threatened by desert raids or enemy polities.
If Islam doesn't manage to gain even one of Anatolia, Egypt and Mesopotamia, it's probably gonna implode sooner rather than later, only giving the Sassanids a bloody nose at worst. But I'd still expect a successor state in Byzantium and the western half of Anatolia, and possibly the Peloponnese too.
Any Egyptian-based polity will prioritize Palestina and Syria, as they are by far the main route for any foreign power to attack them, so they have all the incentive to try and kick out the Arabs too. The Avar Khaganate probably lasts a bit longer, and the overall developments slow down the adoption of Christianity if not prevent it outright.
On the West, probably the SRE is able to moderately project power into Visigothic lands, but would it really want to do it? It probably is a huge attention taker. The Franks are going to be wary but have no overlapping claims with the SRE.

What do you think of this?

 

[Filo]

Generally speaking, Syracusae is a good capital because it's rich, well-positioned, and most importantly, not easily threatened by desert raids or enemy polities.

I think the same way. Lucia Arcifa (2021) in one of her articles portrays Byzantine Sicily as a true transit hub to and from Byzantium. Although the Heraclid family had its origins in Carthage, I believe it is natural to choose Syracuse for capital, it was only 15 days from Constantinople (while it take 13 days to Ancyra and 11 to Philippopolis) and it is, obvioulsy, nearer to Cartaghe and to Italy.
Moreover this didn't discharge the possibility of an Amazigh (or African) imperial dynasty (that is one of my goals here)

If Islam doesn't manage to gain even one of Anatolia, Egypt and Mesopotamia, it's probably gonna implode sooner rather than later, only giving the Sassanids a bloody nose at worst. But I'd still expect a successor state in Byzantium and the western half of Anatolia, and possibly the Peloponnese too.

In my view, Islam in TTL, following to some extent Crone et al. (although I don't fully agree, but this is currently beyond the scope of alternate history), is not a truly new religion, but rather a kind of Christian heresy. Nevertheless, since I consider Khalid ibn Walid to be a capable general, Syria and Iraq could come under Arab rule (where a distinct form of Islamic religion could develop in Kufa, separate from the Arab Christianity propagated by Muhammad).

Any Egyptian-based polity will prioritize Palestina and Syria, as they are by far the main route for any foreign power to attack them, so they have all the incentive to try and kick out the Arabs too.

Again i totally second you here. Holding Jerusalem, then, it surely a great boost to prestige too.

The Avar Khaganate probably lasts a bit longer, and the overall developments slow down the adoption of Christianity if not prevent it outright.

They have a tendency to dissolve and divide rather quickly, but certainly without a Roman counterbalance to the east, the Balkans are destined to remain a lot of time under, if not a khanate, at least under a nomadic (or seminomadic) culture.

But I'd still expect a successor state in Byzantium and the western half of Anatolia, and possibly the Peloponnese too.

If I go with Greater Armenia, at least as far as the central plateau, the Anatolian coasts to the west, and, I believe, certainly also the Peloponnese (and Attica?), would give rise to political and state entities of a "Civil" nature. Perhaps the Bulgarians could migrate to Thessaly?

On the West, probably the SRE is able to moderately project power into Visigothic lands, but would it really want to do it? It probably is a huge attention taker. The Franks are going to be wary but have no overlapping claims with the SRE.

If the Southern Roman Empire manages to remain at least neutral in religious matters (unless ancient heresies survive that the empire could exploit to reduce the power of the Pope), the Pope may not need to call upon the Franks for support. However, it is also necessary to consider how the Lombards behave here, as in the 7th century they were at the height of their expansion (Vaccaro 2007). To whom will the Pope turn? And if the Franks invade Italy to "defend" Rome, some kind of conflict is inevitable.

What do you think? I think that, if could resolve some health matters, in the next days i could also post the first part

 

[Evil Crusader]

If the Southern Roman Empire manages to remain at least neutral in religious matters (unless ancient heresies survive that the empire could exploit to reduce the power of the Pope), the Pope may not need to call upon the Franks for support. However, it is also necessary to consider how the Lombards behave here, as in the 7th century they were at the height of their expansion (Vaccaro 2007). To whom will the Pope turn? And if the Franks invade Italy to "defend" Rome, some kind of conflict is inevitable.

What do you think? I think that, if could resolve some health matters, in the next days i could also post the first part

The Pope of early VII century is nothing like his pop-cultural status from the later heyday of the Curia; he's but a faithful servant of the Emperor, and a closer Imperial seat will only enhance that status - as long as Papal preferred orthodoxy is kept, of course.
That said, it's probable the Exarchate gets rolled back into direct administration, but still, the best this SRE can do is to focus on securing Southern Italy and hoping for the best.
Chlothar II has just reunited the Frankish lands, and may be susceptible to offers aimed against either the Visigoths or the Lonbards.

 

[Filo]

You're right, but, inmho, only to some extent.
While it is true that the papacy was not yet the power it would become in the future, it is also true that it already had a strong awareness of its prerogatives. One of the reasons for the Frankish intervention in Italy was precisely because the Pope (quoting from memory as I don't have the book with me now) did not want to become the chaplain of the Lombard king.
You're correct, but only if the emperor remains a Chalcedonian Catholic.
The Roman Church has always considered itself the custodian of true orthodoxy by virtue of its role as the successors of Peter. As early as the time of Justinian, there was the schism of the Three Chapters, and throughout the 4th and 5th centuries, Arian emperors created misunderstandings with Rome. Even Heraclius, in the Homeline, with his support for the Monothelite theory, contributed, as would later happen with the Iconoclast emperors, to laying the groundwork for the calling of the Frankish kings to Italy.(ostrogorski et al.)

Edit:
It should also be considered that, as @Nuraghe mentioned, the Gothic Wars certainly did not contribute to the Empire's popularity. However, if the rulers of Carthage and Syracuse remain orthodox Catholics, and the Pope does not feel the need to seek assistance from another power to safeguard his autonomy, then the Franks and the Romans could indeed be true allies.

 

[Evil Crusader]

You're right, but, inmho, only to some extent.
While it is true that the papacy was not yet the power it would become in the future, it is also true that it already had a strong awareness of its prerogatives. One of the reasons for the Frankish intervention in Italy was precisely because the Pope (quoting from memory as I don't have the book with me now) did not want to become the chaplain of the Lombard king.

The POD is around the year 610, and the Frankish invasion is 160 years later; such a long ass time for neglect to sink in. But this early, there is no such political awareness; I would argue the whole Monothelite incident showed how much power disparity was there, with the Emperor forcing their political needs on every Christian without immediate implosion, its main opponents actually being Africa and Palestine, and most importantly, Monothelism outlasting the devastating defeats in the Levant for a whole generation.
In other words, the Pope had so little interest and influence in affirming such a prerogative, that even though they touched upon the faith, their worst act of defiance was holding a Synod, after which they stood silent for the remainder of Constans II's reign.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Wouldn't the best strength for this empire be to basically have the same footprint as Carthage, just deeper into the interior? So, add in some of Spain, plus Sicily and Sardinia, and West as far as sensible, East to Cyrenaica?

I'm a bit confused as to who is ruling Egypt? Has it broken away under its own head of steam, but if so wouldn't it essentially be another Roman successor empire?

 

[Filo]

The POD is around the year 610, and the Frankish invasion is 160 years later; such a long ass time for neglect to sink in. But this early, there is no such political awareness; I would argue the whole Monothelite incident showed how much power disparity was there, with the Emperor forcing their political needs on every Christian without immediate implosion, its main opponents actually being Africa and Palestine, and most importantly, Monothelism outlasting the devastating defeats in the Levant for a whole generation.
In other words, the Pope had so little interest and influence in affirming such a prerogative, that even though they touched upon the faith, their worst act of defiance was holding a Synod, after which they stood silent for the remainder of Constans II's reign.

Ok, i understand and still agree only part.
I agree on you that if the Empire stays catholic (and here i see no valid reasons for it to embrace some heresy) the Pope shall not need a foreign power to help, or at least need it in different fashion.

Wouldn't the best strength for this empire be to basically have the same footprint as Carthage, just deeper into the interior? So, add in some of Spain, plus Sicily and Sardinia, and West as far as sensible, East to Cyrenaica?

I think that Amazigh, and generally speaking, desert peoples problem plaguing Roman Africa, at least for a century or two, forced the Empire to focus on the sea, instead than the interior. After the Amazigh are subdued/paciefied (like in HL the islamic rulers did) could led to dice deep South searching for gold (or gold could arrive by itself in the guise of Mali Armies!)

I'm a bit confused as to who is ruling Egypt? Has it broken away under its own head of steam, but if so wouldn't it essentially be another Roman successor empire?

Egypt is ruled by a Persian Zorosatrian Dynasty. But is largely Christian.
I see it as a Persian successor state (in Wake of Arab invasion), but in long run could develope also "Roman" ambitions.

 

[piratedude]

monothelitism might still be an issue in whatever successor states exist in Greece and Anatolia, but yeah that definitely won't be an issue in North Africa or Sicily (consider that north Africa was essentially the 'Bible belt' of the Mediterranean)

Egypt is ruled by a Persian Zorosatrian Dynasty. But is largely Christian.
I see it as a Persian successor state (in Wake of Arab invasion), but in long run could develope also "Roman" ambitions.

A Persian (or at least Persian installed) dynasty makes sense, but would they really be able to hold to zoroastrianism in the face of needing to keep the christian elites/power players on side?

 

[Filo]

A Persian (or at least Persian installed) dynasty makes sense, but would they really be able to hold to zoroastrianism in the face of needing to keep the christian elites/power players on side?

In the long run probably they will need to convert to Miaphysitism/monophysitism or be overthrown in favor of local Christian lords (may be Southern Ethiopian Slave Soldier?)