Well, India just nommed the French colonies there and China just persuaded the minor states in Indonesia to unite in a loose confederation inspired by Italy.
The Silver Knight, a Lithuania Timeline
- Thread starter Augenis
- Start date
I think SE Asia is still a fluid, unpredictable zone with the war still being on. I expect it to be explored more when the dust settles, but for now-- the Nusantara Federation was discussed in one of Whiteshore's guest posts, as well as the Chinese-led security alliance that binds most of the region's states together against India. Burma was briefly mentioned to be ruled by an Anarcho-Unitarian government in one of the official chapters, and "Ayutthaya" is apparently a thing that still exists. The Burmese invasions that killed Ayutthaya probably never happened.
A wonderful detailed look at an often neglected and fascinating people! Thanks @LostInNewDelhi !
How much of the leadership of the Unitarian Powers is comprised of "true believers" who believe the non-sense they spout about a Unitarian utopia, I may ask?
Are there any anti-Unitarian insurgencies in France's former South East Asian colonies? The Unitarians were pretty quick in taking over (too quickly for every non-unitarian literati and colonial collaborator to be caught in their drag net), establishing puppet regimes (which aren't even the local flavour of Unitarian insanity), then withdrawing from the border regions of their gains as to not agitate China. Seems like a perfect recipe for multiple large insurgencies (perhaps supplied by the neighbours?) to take over swaths of the back wood.
What did the Revivalist regime formally charge Dirmantas with when he fell out of favor and was shot? Espionage for "foreign powers"? Plotting to overthrow the regime?
Chapter 93: Give it One More Shot
Part 93: Give it One More Shot (Jul-Dec 1941)
The German parliamentary election of 1941 took place in late August, during a period when the front against Turkey may have started to get stalled, but regardless, the people were thoroughly taken by surprise at the successes Germania had during the year. At 56 years old, and despite having already served two terms as the Prime Minister, Augustina Sternberg was still in "fighting shape" to continue participate in German politics as the leader of the Centralist Party, and her political movement was favored in polls from the very beginning of the campaign. The people had a lot to thank her for - the successful leadership in the war, the economic recovery from the recession prior... That's not to even mention the fact that the war against the Commonwealth allowed Sternberg to take actions against the Democratic Unitarian movement in her own country in the name of "rooting out potential fifth columns in a worst case scenario", arresting or otherwise threatening the loudest of their leaders and thus neutering one of her primary political rivals in the campaign.
Few people wanted to change horses in the middle of a war, thus the popular support for the Centralists not only remained strong, but also grew during the campaign, to the point where during the election, for the first time since the Act of Union of North and South Germania, one party was able to secure a majority of the seats in the Congress without the need of a coalition. With this overflowing popular mandate, Sternberg was reappointed as the Prime Minister on September 1st, and with the first hours of her third term ticking, the politician gave the "Iron and Blood" speech in front of an enthusiastic legislature. Sternberg declared it Germania's mandate to champion the cause of democracy in the 20th century, both in Europe, overseas and in Germania itself - and this task, unfortunately, could not be accomplished with simple diplomacy. The enemies of liberty are many and they do not listen to reason - iron and blood are both needed to vanquish the evil that is strangling countries such as Turkey, India and Lithuania. In that same speech, Sternberg laid her vision of what post-war Europe should look like - not a choking, tension ridden land like what was before the Great European War, but a "brotherhood of democratic nations". To remain competitive, Europe could not remain just a geographical term, it needs to become a symbol of unity, economic, political or otherwise.
Outside of reminding the German people to not rest on their laurels and finish the job in the Balkans, the Iron and Blood speech held a lot of symbolic weight. It signaled a turning point in European history, a point when the period after the Great European War, marked by uncertainty and instability because of the sudden shifts in strength from France to Germania and from Lithuania to Visegrad, was finally over. Germania, or at least it's Prime Minister, declared that their were willing to take the position of "leader of Europe" that France once held - and hopefully do it right this time.
"Your Fatherland is in danger, enlist now!" 1940 German propaganda poster
Turkey's domestic and military situation was, in all honesty, pitiful. Ironically, it suffered from the same weaknesses as it's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire - it was just not prepared to fight against superior odds, no matter what way you look at it. The nation was isolated, it's only real trade partner being India - and the Indians were acting more and more selfish as time went on, increasing the prices for their products and demanding further diplomatic concessions from the Turks to continue the support. Black market purchases were also no longer an option, the prices were just too high. In the past, this would not have been a problem, as Turkey was able to fund the acquisition of any military equipment or produces they were unable to produce themselves through conquest - for example, by seizing the wealth in occupied Balkan countries, anything from church decorations to national treasuries to roof tiles. Obviously, this was very much a finite source of additional income, and by 1941, all that they were left with was an angry, bitter and hungry Balkan peninsula.
"Angry, hungry and bitter" was a description fitting for not just the Balkans, but also the Turkish mainland, and for that, attention needs to be put on the brewing conflict across the Union. No matter how hard the Uniarians were to attempt denationalization, some cultural differences just couldn't be defeated, and in a number of cases, violent suppression of nationalism naturally only made it stronger. The Arabian population, almost as large as that of the native Turks, did not forget the Turkish Civil War, the time when the creation of a pan-Arab state became a possibility, only to be brutally crushed by the blue revolution in Konstantinyye. They also did not forget the suppression during the decades after, the attack on the Islamic faith, thousands deported to the Rub Al Khali or to a wide network of labor camps. Fatahist influence, spreading from Egypt across the underground, was an another important factor, all leading up to the beginning of unrest across Turkish Arabia. Underground resistance organizations, like The Foundation (al-Qa'idah), were forming and looking to countries such as Egypt and Germania as potential allies to take down the Unitarian juggernaut and bring forth a united Arabia.
It was during this atmosphere that the Sofia-Pristina Campaign, the last major Turkish offensive in the War of the Danube, began. Masterminded by general Dede Korkut, a 70 year old veteran of the Turkish Civil War and one of the Commonwealth's most decorated military commanders, it aimed to break through the rapidly advancing, but somewhat disorganized German spearhead in Serbia and thus drive the attackers back to the Danube and the Carpathians, where the Unitarian army would be able to set up a defensible position until more help from India arrives. And, indeed, the first stages of the offensive went well - in the two week Battle of Sofia, three German divisions were almost completely destroyed and a number of other were routed, allowing the Turks to sweep back into northern Bulgaria and Wallachia. Similar attacks in Serbia and Bulgaria took the Germans similarly by surprise, although the victories were not nearly as impactful there. The tide has finally been turned! Right?.. Alas, this was a false hope, and by the time the Turks got close to Belgrade, they were running out of everything from ammunition to food to popular support. Underground Bulgarian, Serbian and Albanian resistance were sabotaging vital infrastructure, while the morale across the army was wavering, especially among Arab soldiers. Entire Arabian platoons were deserting during the later stages of the offensive. This all resulted in the Battle of Uzice in October of 1941, where two German reserve armies faced off against the advancing Turkish military in one of the largest battles of the entire conflict, on a similar scale as the Battle of Tver. Using the relatively mountainous and forested terrain to their advantage, the Germans pushed back three powerful, but poorly planned Unitarian attacks against their position, soon turning the battle around by striking and routing the exhausted enemy position. Followed by similarly victorious battles in Belgrade and Craiova, the German Army began a counter-offensive, reverting much of the territorial gains made during the campaign by October - except this time, they stood before not an army prepared for an offensive, but a tired, exhausted, undersupplied force. With the failure of the Pristina-Sofia Campaign, the fate of the Union was sealed.
Field Marshal Bertolt Brecht's orders said it best: "Serve me Kubilay on a plate!".
German infantrymen in southern Albania, November 1941
As the Chinese blockade of the Home Islands started to "celebrate" it's one year anniversary, eyes that were turned to Japan could immediately tell that there most likely won't be a second. The situation in the union was abysmal. Any and all infrastructure, from roads to ports to railways, was practically nonexistent. Stuff like expired food, sewage and, occasionally, human meat were becoming the people's favorite snacks, while the constantly prepared Japanese military was going from home to home, seizing any usable food, in what was basically one continuous raid of the countryside. Not a single foreign ship could reach the archipelago to relieve the situation - not that any would even want to come and trade, as the Japanese industry was bombed to bits and its treasury nonexistent. So how would they even be able to pay for any relief? Only cheese in a mousetrap comes for free, after all.
Despite the horrifying condition the Japanese nation was in, this was merely the beginning of their difficulties. The 1941 East Asian summer monsoon was weak and overpowered by cold and arid weather brought from the Xiboliyan High, which spelled doom for the crop yield in the region. While China was affected by this sudden change in weather, they were able to import any deficits from the rest of the world, like, say, from the Vespucias, but Japan, which was already critically low on such important crops as rice, could only cower in terror. The winter monsoon, meanwhile, was far stronger than anticipated, and arrived from the northern Pacific, bringing not only cold, but also very humid weather. Hokkaido and northern Honshu were able to measure snowfall in meters, and the southern islands were only doing mildly better. This period was dubbed, both physically and metaphorically, as The Longest Winter, and it practically spelled the end for the besieged nation. Even the public opinion in China began to turn against the war - sure, Japan is a threat to the region and it's government near insane, but is it necessary to basically starve the nation to death? Why can't the military just land on the Home Islands and put an end to this madness? After all, the casualties of the year long bombing campaign, the siege and the Longest Winter could now be counted in hundreds of thousands, if not millions...
In modern day, it is fashionable to point fingers to China, as well as Yang Long's government, and state that they have committed one of the biggest war crimes of their generation. Japan was a failing nation, it's military was underprepared, and a naval landing would have been able to secure the islands within months, even at the very beginning of the siege. The problem is that, sadly, the Chinese did not have precognition powers. Documents from the period show that the Chinese military believed that an amphibious landing on Japan would end up even more costly to the archipelago, and that they also underestimated the tenacity of the Unitarian state, assuming that the blockade will only take a few months to force them to submit. Yang Long's government, meanwhile, feared that a landing on the Japanese mainland would only strengthen their resolve and force Nagai Takashi to enact total mobilisation, prolonging the war even further, and thus delayed a landing.
A relatively untouched part of Kyoto, August 1941.
The Revival Front couldn't have not been aware of the negative international opinion against them, and the Turkish collapse in the Balkans was sure to worry them. After all, if the Unitarians collapse so quickly, Germania may turn their eyes towards them, and if the Russo-Lithuanian War is not done with by then, it'll be curtains for the Revivalists. As such, the Vadas hastily approved one last powerful offensive against the Russian-Volgak coalition, Operation Algirdas, named after the Lithuanian grand duke from the 14th century who drastically expanded his nation's territory into the Rus'. Petras Cvirka, as the new chief of staff was given supreme jurisdiction over the campaign, involving up to 270 000 soldiers and aiming to take out the capital of the Volga, Vostovsk. The main idea of the campaign banked on the assumption that the army of the Volga was not yet ready for large scale military maneuvers, unlike their battle hardened Russian counterparts, and thus a direct attack into the Volga would be the weak link of the enemy coalition. Vostovsk's capture would allow the Lithuanians to sweep the Volga basin, seizing untouched industry and population centers which have so far been maintaining the war effort of the Slavs, and thus put them to submission.
All in all, it was a well thought out idea, but the problems with the execution started to show up before the campaign even began. Cvirka's domineering, choleric, and, most importantly, arrogant personality turned out to be a hindrance than a boon - from the very beginning, he conflicted with the generals of the military, especially Antanas Sidabras, who was fiercely opposed to his appointment as chief of staff and continued to clash with the leader of the Green Berets throughout the planning stages. Cvirka brought Sidabras before the Council of Hetmans three times, each time demanding his resignation, but every single time the general's noticeable competence and popularity, as well as the Vadas's favoritism, stopped these attempts. Still, slowly, but surely, the planning for the operation continued, finishing by August, which is when the offensive was finally executed.
The idea of Volgak weakness seemed to be correct at first, as the Lithuanians achieved a number of breakthroughs at Tambov, Murom and Voronezh, eventually forcing the entire southern part of the front to retreat east. Large battles commenced throughout August and September, while a mobile Lithuanian force at the very south did the best and seized the entirety of the Don steppe, pressing forward until reaching the Volga at the town of Tsaritsyn on September 17th. This was the first warning sign to the United Communities and it's chairman Gennady Zinoviev, and on September 22nd, the Council of Vostovsk passed an act declaring a state of emergency and enacting general mobilization laws. All federal industry and most able private firms were shifted to military production, emergency loans were taken from local banks, Germania and Sweden to fund further mobilization and equipment purchases from China. Hoping to shift the pressure from the Volga basin, Alexei Krutov ordered an offensive from Nizhny Novgorod, which, while achieved some successes, had little impact in diverting Lithuanian attention.
The Army of the Don continued to advance upstream from Tsaritsyn, and the farthest they got was the city of Kamyshin, 600 or so kilometers away from Vostovsk. While the 2nd Army, advancing up to the town of Penza, was geographically closer, only 400 kilometers away, it faced much stiffer opposition on the way, was unable to continue it's push without great losses and thus wasn't as much of a threat as the Don army. Although the bicycle equipped 60 000 men large Lithuanian force was advancing fast, this also meant that they were outracing their supply lines and had to cover a large portion of the front all by themselves. The men were tired, lacking ammunition, many of them were Ruthenians, who sympathized with their Slavic opponents, not unlike the Arabs in the Turkish Army preferred to desert rather than fight the Germans. Still, the advance continued, and Kamyshin - formerly a portage between the Don and Volga river basins, now a city hosting a canal between the rivers, thus very important for Volgak trade - was where they first faced serious opposition from the regular Volgak military.
The Battle of Kamyshin had all the right to be one-sided. The Lithuanians were set to face off against an understrength Volgak division, counting at 7734 men, while the attacking force had four divisions stacked against them. However, the perfect combination of bad weather (storms), favorable defensible terrain, attacker exhaustion, and defender tenacity meant that the battle was one of the most humiliating clashes for the Revivalist army in the entire war. For three whole weeks, the single division held their ground against more and more vicious enemy attacks against their position, biding enough time for the mobilized Volgak army to arrive as reinforcements and turn the tide of the battle. Kamyshin was the farthest the Lithuanians got to the east, and this defeat was followed by the Volgaks successfully pushing their enemy back towards Tsaritsyn. The propaganda value of the victory could not be understated, either - while in the past, the people of the United Communities were only mildly enthusiastic for the war, seeing it as a duty to help their brethren in the west and nothing else, the news of the direct Lithuanian invasion into the Volga, the heroic defense of Kamyshin and the successful counteroffensive made it personal. The commander of the heroes of Kamyshin, the 11th 'Kratkovskaya' Infantry Division, Aleksandr Luzhin, with the highest military decoration in Volga Russia, the Order of the North Star, for his achievement.
Fearing ending up encircled in the Don steppe or getting bogged down by the poor infrastructure in the region, the Lithuanians retreated from much of the territory they had occupied during Operation Algirdas, essentially setting the results of the campaign to "a complete failure". However, Petras Cvirka escaped repercussions by prematurely putting the blame on none other than traitors across the Lithuanian officer corps, as well as secretly pressuring much of the higher ups to stand in is favor. Not that the Vadas had plans to just off one of his closest and most fanatical allies straight away. Even if he should have...
The world in December of 1941
The last chapter was a bit on the small side, so this one is the biggest in this TL so far (as far as I've counted), at 3236 words
It's uh, peaceful, comparing it to what is happening in Europe right now. There is a much bigger native Vespucian influence on the culture of the states in the region, for obvious reasons, and the fact that it hosts important states from a plethora of various origins (French dominions, British and Spanish colonies, VFS, native states, etc.) means that the continent is even more of a melting pot than it is in OTL.
That's very hard to measure, because the definition of a "true believer" is a very subjective one, and also depends a lot on circumstance. After all, as an OTL example, many of the politicians in the USSR who seemed to be hard believers when the union was doing well quickly dropped their stance when it collapsed, so it really depends on outside factors...
Indeed, there are plenty of insurgencies in Indian occupied territory, but as the Indians aren't really busy with anything right now and the insurgents have no major foreign support, it's an uphill battle for them.
Can I choose "all of the above"?
Because all the world must eventually accept DIRECT RULE FROM THE DRAGON THRONE!
We can't starve japanese to death. Just invade the island and decapitate nagai's regime.
They need some serious justification for that. Is Japan worth the bone of a single Cantonese rifleman?
Excellent update. I didn't see the Union as being significantly insecure at the start of the conflict, but now that it's on the ropes and Germania is gunning for its absolute destruction...
How is all of this viewed in Persia? Has news of the Greek rebellion in the west gotten to them, or is the Union still able to censor news of that?
How is all of this viewed in Persia? Has news of the Greek rebellion in the west gotten to them, or is the Union still able to censor news of that?
India is doing it's duty to suppress opposition and potential resistance there, as Persia is jointly occupied by them and the Turks.
You know, the fact that this is still, I presume, a prelude to "The Second Great War" is both exiting and horrifying. This coupled with the goals defined in the "Iron and Blood" speech and the political situation in Europe and the world really implies a conflict of such mass and brutality, that to compare any other conflict to it would be like comparing a breeze to a storm.
Good catch, I'd completely forgotten about this. Maybe Shun China and Germania fall out?
Well, there was a weird dream many pages back ITTL, which involved a Lithuanian maritime attack on India. I think this will be part of the whole. In this case, your suspicion could be right because India surely remains China's Main rival, so if Lithuanians attack India, then they're on China's side, but sternberg has already prepared Germania for an anti-fascist, ehm, anti-revivalist effort.
Weird alliances those would be, though.
Perhaps a Lithuanian-Shun partition of the Volga? At this point I really don't see anyway for the Lithuanians to win the eastern front on their own, and Lithuania vs Germania while the war on the east is still raging seems like too much of a stomp for it to be the "big clash" this part of the TL is building up to.
They're keeping Persia under long-term occupation, rather than just directly annexing it? Why is that?
India is already a really multicultural region- for example, Punjabis have fairly little in common with Tamils. I thought the Indians would just try to bring Persia into the realm of Greater India.
Don't think a Lithuanian-Shun partition of the Volga would be good for either the Lithuanians or the Shun... they'd both be left having to control a very large, angry, rebellious Russian/Ruthenian/Volgak populace.
If the Shun did for some reason decide to side with Lithuania, I think they'd allow least some territory to remain under Volgak/Russian control. Something like this, and Lithuania would try some ethnic cleansing to force the Russian/Volgak/Ruthenian populations to emigrate to the rump Volga Russia.