Had a chat with someone in my game group about some happenings in game and since Omsk was mentioned on the previous page...have some thoughts about something I've always kinda wondered about: What happens to the Great Trial if Germany hits a fail state? In particular, when Heydrich gives himself an air vent and the entire state comes crashing down into civil war?
A)
I think this could very well lead to some serious soul searching for the Black League. The very purpose of being for the Black League (which is rather unique among all the unifiers - it isn't communist, democratic or anything of the sort, but more "ends" rather than "means" in that it doesn't really care about ideology other than killing as many Germans as possible) is the pursuit of the Great Trial, which for the vast majority of the game is the expectation that the Nazis are going to be coming back eventually, a final war that Russia must be ready for - this is originally Karbyshev's view of things, and Yazov is for the most part fairly similar (until his "revelation" down the line, where it becomes the goal of launching a first strike) except for the, shall we say scale, of what that war entails. This is the very core of what makes the Black League into the Black League, as its entire reason for being is to be ready for a war against Germany...
...but the collapse of Heydrich's Germany is one that is going to completely change the situation, because Germany is no longer the threat that it used to be. Germany has effectively destroyed itself as a major player on the world, devolving into petty warlordism on such a scale that the entire region is just an anarchy so intense that it doesn't even get the fairly organized warlord statelets of Russia. Whilst I am sure that there would be many inside of Omsk who would be celebrating with joy at seeing Germany tear itself apart in such a fashion, I can't help but think that this is going to send massive shockwaves through the organisation itself, because the threat of the Great Trial itself no longer looms over them as it once did - the collapse of Heydrich's Germany has not merely thrown Germany into chaos, it has effectively removed it as a serious military threat to the League and to Russia by extension. Yes, it still has its nukes (though much of its arsenal would most likely become unusable in a practical sense, not because of loss of the warheads but due to the unavailability of delivery systems), but the rest of its military is just an utter mess, and more interested in shooting at other Germans than at Russians. No threat of invasion means that there is no threat of the Great Trial, and no threat of the Great Trial is a blow to the very core of the philosophy and ideology of the Black League. It is effectively mission accomplished for them, if perhaps not in the way that the League itself might have expected, and that will have consequences at every level - the men of the various cadres who toil to serve Russia and prepare for the Great Trial, the men of the League itself who do their part to prepare for Germany's return, even the Redemptionary Brigades where men are serving the Great Trial by digging trenches or building bunkers even if they don't really believe in the League's ideology, all of it is going to be facing a massive shock to the core of the ideology itself...
B)
The collapse of Germany would be a mixed bag for the League's fortunes at home. ...and this is going to have extreme repercussions in regards to the unification of Russia, especially when it comes to recruiting troops and manpower for the League because, again, it would seem to practically everyone in Russia as if their prayers had been answered - Germany is gone, never to threaten them again. The Black League can't use the Germans as a boogeyman when they're living in the bombed out ruins of their cities, shooting one another for food to fill their bellies and a roof over their heads. They just wouldn't seem a credible threat anymore, especially with it having now been three devastating civil wars in a row...and it isn't exactly like they can find a new German nation to use as an enemy either, as Burgundy is now KIA and the Reich's colonial empire in Eastern Europe would not be long for the world either after the evisceration of the mothership in the form of Heydrich's Germany, and no one else can really take Germany's place in that regard. Yes, there would be those who would now see it as their chance to get revenge or at the very least to finally march back into Moscow again, a thing that would certainly be appealing to many who might hear the message from the League, but that goes hand in hand with the fact that people are eager to do that because they no longer perceive Germany as a threat, as a force capable of stopping them from doing such a thing.
The result is what I can't help but see as a really mixed situation for the League on the ground - people aren't really afraid of Germany as much as they once were and so don't perceive it as a threat, which means that they're less concerned about the risks of marching into western Russia (good for the League!) but at the same time, they don't see the importance of the Great Trial anymore as Germany is, again, no longer a threat (bad for the League!) big enough to scare people.
C)
It opens up an entirely new set of possibilities for the Black League in Europe. If the Black League manages to remain cohesive and continues to be hostile towards Germany with the belief that the Great Trial is merely delayed, not stopped entirely, then the collapse of Germany as a centralized entity obviously opens up a number of possibilities that I think could really bring things full circle, a sort of "you have become the very thing you sought to destroy" aspect in how the League can brutalize the crippled Germany. I don't see this as much as marching in, but maybe an off shoot of the CIA mechanics in the mod, expect tailored solely against Germany with the League doing everything it can to worsen the civil war from the shadows, all with the goal of keeping Germany broken for as long as possible. I could imagine this as being things like, say, deploying bioweapons and spreading disease (especially devastating without a central government to coordinate a response, to say nothing of the impacts of a lack of access to food, clean water, good shelter and basic medical care that would come in the wake of such a devastating conflict) at the higher end to just things like assassinating officers and politicians who seem to be doing well and bombing any talks that might lead to basic warlord states starting to come together.
In effect, this would be the Russian Warlord state of the game, but from the other perspective - the Black League isn't the warlord state struggling to survive anymore, with the brigades hurrying for shelter from the bombing runs, it has become the bomber, the force that is doing everything in its power to keep Germany broken into pieces. You could even lampshade this in the setting itself with some people in Germany catching on to what is happening and putting together a sort of league of their own, creating their own equivalent of Omsk (perhaps in west Germany), believing that the Russians are going to come out of the east and slaughter them all if they do not ready themselves for the day of their own Great Trial. It would not only be greatly ironic for Omsk to have inadvertently created a German version of itself, but it would highly thematic, too, and relevant to the story of Omsk - in a way the Black League is a tale of vengeance and what it can do to those who are consumed by it, and here we would have the perfect culmination to that tale: the cycle of vengeance has gone and came around and Omsk has avenged itself, but in the process created a Germany that wants a vengeance of its own - an eye for an eye, leaving the world blind as the cycle of vengeance continues ever onwards.
Altogether this makes me think that they should have a special little event chain or a miniature focus tree to deal with the collapse, something that covers the immediate aftermath of the Third Civil War, starting with celebration (Germany is dead, our victory is at hand!) and then the realization and questioning of what this means for the League and the Great Trial when Germany already lies in ruin? It should be a set of things that starts out eager and excited, but starts to get increasingly uneasy and uncertain of the future as one goes through them, the growing realization sinking into Yazov and his officers that their mission has effectively completed itself, that the Great Trial was won before it ever even began, and now they find themselves a League that lacks a purpose.
Ultimately, I could see this diverge into four possibilities:
A)
The Black League disintegrates.This one is pretty straight forward in how it would happen - the lack of purpose for the League is effectively terminal, its ideology coming apart at the seams, and its lack of purpose beyond that singularly focused goal renders it unable to bind the state/government together and so it starts to unravel and come apart completely. What happens next, I can't even begin to conjecture. It certainly wouldn't look much like the situation after Taboritsky or anything mad like that, that's for sure, as I don't see the ground level administration being so battered or the people so tormented as to make something like that happen, so I don't think you could get something like a major anarchy out of it. That makes me think that it could start to transform into a sort of military dictatorship of a more vanilla kind,but that could very well be the thing that pulls it apart and causes it to come crashing down. Alternatively, it could very well "reform" itself out of existence, with the Black League being less of a government and more of a military failsafe plan, a lingering presence that remains in the state as a reminder of darker and harder times, ready to be reborn through the many heads of the hydra in the event it is needed to step up to the plate once more. I can imagine that this would lead to a lot of soul searching not just for the League as a whole, but for Yazov himself, who now has to wake up to a world where the enemy he had devoted his life to fighting no longer exists.
B)
The Black League changes priorities - the National Reconstruction Authority, or the New Trial. What this would be, then, is a sort of Great Trial not against a state or a people, but against the situation that Russia find itself in - a land wracked with poverty and suffering, a land where children go hungry, a land where schools and academia have long since closed their doors, a land where the vibrant flame of Russian culture and heritage flickers and wavers for a lack of means to practice and perpetuate itself, operas unsang and books unread. The enemy is dead, it would be said, but the damage remains, and now the task would be of restoring the Motherland to its former glory and living up to the purported name of the League's state as a National Reconstruction Authority by doing exactly that - rebuilding Russia. This would mean a focus not so much on military reconstruction (which there would be plenty of for certain) but on the national social development and the internal situation of the nation, or in gameplay terms, on infrastructure, civilian factories, etc, possibly with decisions and the like (rebuilding the Bolshoi Theatre?) as part of Russia's cultural restoration that would bring stability and popularity for the government. Lore wise, part of me would expect Yazov to retire from active government in this situation, either remaining in the military if needed or perhaps retiring entirely to try and find some measure of peace, perhaps with some event where he visits K.
Ideologically, I could imagine New Trial!Omsk as being some flavor of Despotism, perhaps even AuthDem at the absolute best, and that this line of events would see the arrival of that most rare of things - the meme of Blessed Omsk actually having some basis in the setting. To fit with the ultimate theme of Omsk as a nation of vengeance, this would be the path where that vengeance is slowly, slowly, allowed to falter and burn off. To use a more human example, New Trial Omsk would be that person who, although horrifically wronged, begins to move on from it. They might never be the same as they were before, but they might come to see some semblance to how things once were.
C)
The Black League changes priorities - the Second Trial. What this would be, then, is a sort of "never again" approach for the Black League, where the Second Trial is not any fixed event in specific, but the possibility of Russia being brought back to this situation again, and thus the League's role is as the guardian of the people, of ensuring that Russia is never so weakened that it can be beaten and broken in such a fashion ever again. To use the human example again, Second Trial!Omsk would be the one that - although perhaps no longer seeking true vengeance - is utterly and radically changed by whatever it was that has happened to them as to be almost unrecognizable, someone that is truly scarred by whatever happened. What this would translate into in a less poetic term is a country with a heavy focus not so much on national reconstruction, but on national rearmament, of making Russia into the strongest military power that it can possibly become, a sort of army with a state rather than a state with an army, and just being all around repressive and heavy handed in general. Its big difference from the regular League is that it would be more defensive in-nature and less focused entirely on Germany, but instead having a sort of bunker mentality in regards to most of the world in general, isolationist and just plain guarded in all things.
D)
The Black League changes priorities - the Great Trial Continues. In this case, the mission is effectively one that continues more or less according to plan, but with the idea to take the war to Germany itself. This would be the one where the League/Omsk doubles down on the situation with Germany and the idea of snuffing them out as a threat forever, and that would mean continuing work on the Great Trial as planned...with the addition of that system I mentioned earlier, with them tampering in the Third Civil War to try and make it as bloody and horrific event as possible. This version of the League would be much like its regular appearance, though perhaps seeming more underhanded in nature with how it is using its intelligence arms to manipulate the Anarchy and make it as hellish as possible, in preparation for the day when either the League is confident enough to commence an all out invasion or where Germany is so broken as to be beyond the possibility of recovery...and of course, this line brings things full circle with the appearance of a sort of German version of the League. Again, with the human example, Great Trial!Omsk would be the person that never quits on the idea of getting their revenge, pursuing each and every chance they might get, consumed by their anger, consumed in their entirety by a desperate yearning for revenge.
Honestly, I think ti could be a really interesting spin on things for Omsk - the embodiment of vengeance - to have some alternatives as to where that vengeance might lead them, and whether or not they stick to it. Being that it is mostly just a focus tree and some events I could probably do this myself (I've done this kind of thing before), but unfortunately I don't have the time so it'll just have to remain as these spitballs