The Mongols Conquer Most of Europe.......

[Gladi]

It almost definitely would - the Mongols had set their sights on Persia and the Abbasid Caliphate, and they had already organized several earlier campagins in this area.

You misunderstand me.

I am not asking if Mongols would have reason to invade, I am asking if they would have men, money and leaders.

We have jsut agreed thet 130 000 Mongols went off to Europe. They won't all be coming back. And whatever you might say about using auxiliaries, they won!t have Europeans in 1450's in their armies yet.

Also conquest of Europe woudl divert lot of capital. Not only for supporting the troops, but for setting up new administration. I find it somewhat doubtfull that European conquest is going to be profitable right away in large scale. Certainly Mongols will get plunder and tributes from fearful lords, but that would likely remain in hands of Mongols in the place, enriching the conquerors.

And if the Mongol conquerors of Europe get good money for themselves, if not for whole Khanate. Than we can expect a flow of ambitious Mongols into Europe in addition to any other distractions they akready had in this period.

Further- If Outremer is strengthened by refugees from Europe (who in the short time will be more of a burden), it will cause a reaction from Muslims who will have to come together in face of this threat.

 

[stevep]

You misunderstand me.

I am not asking if Mongols would have reason to invade, I am asking if they would have men, money and leaders.

We have jsut agreed thet 130 000 Mongols went off to Europe. They won't all be coming back. And whatever you might say about using auxiliaries, they won!t have Europeans in 1450's in their armies yet.

Also conquest of Europe woudl divert lot of capital. Not only for supporting the troops, but for setting up new administration. I find it somewhat doubtfull that European conquest is going to be profitable right away in large scale. Certainly Mongols will get plunder and tributes from fearful lords, but that would likely remain in hands of Mongols in the place, enriching the conquerors.

And if the Mongol conquerors of Europe get good money for themselves, if not for whole Khanate. Than we can expect a flow of ambitious Mongols into Europe in addition to any other distractions they akready had in this period.

Further- If Outremer is strengthened by refugees from Europe (who in the short time will be more of a burden), it will cause a reaction from Muslims who will have to come together in face of this threat.

Gladi

As Ran said the Khanate who attacked the ME in the 1260's were a totally different one to those who attacked eastern Europe in the 1240's. Therefore there is likely to be very little problem of resources being switched from one to another. As an earlier post said much of the occupation force for Europe may actually come from the already subjected Russian population and other eastern people.

In one way it might actually help the invasion from the east. Historically the two Khanates were fairly bitter rivals. If what OTL became the Golden Horde is actually concentrating on invading central and western Europe it may not be clashing as much with the IlKhan in the south, which will give them more opportunities against the Marmalukes. [Even more if about the same time the European Khanate is attacking from the north, at least until the two start clashing].

The other big question is what butterflies prompt the westward move and how things change from that. Historically the 1247 invasion was curtailed because the Great Khan died back in Mongolia and because the rules for inheritance laid down by Genghis Khan called for the members of the family to return for the election of a new Great Khan. Again in 1260 another such death prompted Hulgari [sp?], the leader of that invasion to head east again. He didn't make it in time for the election, not sure if the northern Khan did in 1247. If the former is butterflied away then who dies when will affect the future movement of the various hordes. Also the rivalry between the Golden Horde and Ilkhans was because they supported different elements in the 1260 election. This could be butterflied away by changing circumstances. Things could of course go wrong for the Mongols in other ways and sooner or later the various Khanates will squabble. However a lot could happen to change things in many ways.

Steve

 

[Gladi]

Gladi

As Ran said the Khanate who attacked the ME in the 1260's were a totally different one to those who attacked eastern Europe in the 1240's. Therefore there is likely to be very little problem of resources being switched from one to another. As an earlier post said much of the occupation force for Europe may actually come from the already subjected Russian population and other eastern people.

In one way it might actually help the invasion from the east. Historically the two Khanates were fairly bitter rivals. If what OTL became the Golden Horde is actually concentrating on invading central and western Europe it may not be clashing as much with the IlKhan in the south, which will give them more opportunities against the Marmalukes. [Even more if about the same time the European Khanate is attacking from the north, at least until the two start clashing].

The other big question is what butterflies prompt the westward move and how things change from that. Historically the 1247 invasion was curtailed because the Great Khan died back in Mongolia and because the rules for inheritance laid down by Genghis Khan called for the members of the family to return for the election of a new Great Khan. Again in 1260 another such death prompted Hulgari [sp?], the leader of that invasion to head east again. He didn't make it in time for the election, not sure if the northern Khan did in 1247. If the former is butterflied away then who dies when will affect the future movement of the various hordes. Also the rivalry between the Golden Horde and Ilkhans was because they supported different elements in the 1260 election. This could be butterflied away by changing circumstances. Things could of course go wrong for the Mongols in other ways and sooner or later the various Khanates will squabble. However a lot could happen to change things in many ways.

Steve

Then if they are such rivals, then maybe if the exertion of the former is alrge enough the latter could try to improve the score in it's favour.

And about the Russian troops. Kiev was destroyed just in 1240. I admit that my knowledge of Mongol affairs is pretty much non-existant, but raising tens of thousands troops from recently conquered territory seems not only ruinously expensive, but also to be of rather dubious wisdom if we are talking about local garrisons without effective Mongols oversight.