The Invasion of Poland, 1981

[MacCaulay]

So...I'll probably have to do some thinking about the outcome of the Polish campaign, and how the cards will drop.

That being said, I can see how he might end up in a Dacha somewhere, "retired." With Andropov possibly in his place. You make a convincing argument.

A lot of this will depend on what happens in Poland right on the eve of the invasion, and what Kania decides to do. I can't go one way or the other on that, yet.

What're the chances you'd be interested in co-writing this? Doing the Politburo scenes where I do the operational stuff?

 

[Blue Max]

So...I'll probably have to do some thinking about the outcome of the Polish campaign, and how the cards will drop.

That being said, I can see how he might end up in a Dacha somewhere, "retired." With Andropov possibly in his place. You make a convincing argument.

A lot of this will depend on what happens in Poland right on the eve of the invasion, and what Kania decides to do. I can't go one way or the other on that, yet.

What're the chances you'd be interested in co-writing this? Doing the Politburo scenes where I do the operational stuff?

Maybe. I have to worry about things like getting a Job, but a co-authorship would be alright...

 

[MacCaulay]

1. Politburo decides to solve the Polish Problem with a strong, military response. You may want to decide whether this is a united decision or a highly contested one; internal politics within the Soviet State will require a good look at this point.

2. Fact finding. The KGB's up to the minute reports, the defense ministry's most recent disposition of units is inspected.

3. Economic preparation, if any. The Soviet Union will expect a harsh Western Response. This is likely to be the first clue that they are planning something and anything from trying to increase grain shipments to tightening rationing may be done at this point. If taken, this is likely to give the CIA at least a "rumor" of future action.

4. Inform the Kania government of their intentions; and that they will signal him by KGB courier when to ask for assistance.

5. Tell East Germany that it will be responsible for the defense of the CENTAG area, as it is the area along the front the Soviets least expect to press for a breakthrough in the event of a NATO war, and it is the area that will have been filled by 2nd Gaurds Tank Army.
Czechoslovak and Hungarian governments are notified that Soviet air search helicopters and aircraft will be carrying out exercises along their borders with Poland. The Hungarian military is informed of the pending invasion before it happens, as is the Czech secret police.

6. 2nd Gaurds Tank Army will be ordered to prepare to invade by land across the East German/Polish border in a drive towards Warsaw. It has been chosen because it's base in Furstenburg makes it the closest to the border and thus easiest to logistically place on the roads in that direction.

7. CIA gets concrete information of Soviet Intent at this time; Washington does not respond publically, but informs Britain and France to prepare for a possible buildup in West Germany.
They have the choices of going public with the information, economic sanctions, buildup in Germany, a possible reprisal invasion elsewhere in the world (IE, perhaps Nicaragua for Poland?), and for completeness (although unlikely to happen), military action.

8. The Naval Infantry Division and a brigade of 98th Gaurds Airborne Division will be ordered to prepare for the sea and air assault of Gdansk, with special KGB teams being trained to apprehend all known Solidarity members in the city.
An additional task force of the 87th Airborne will be prepared for an assault to capture the airfields at Warsaw to pave the way for an immediate motorized landing at the capital.
Though it is unlikely that full secrecy can be kept when pulling out the necessary elements of the 98th Gaurds from Afghanistan, the Soviets must do what they can.

9. Movement of Ground Forces will be noticed and the evidence will be undeniable. Washington will be unable to ignore these actions. (this is your territory)

5. 2nd Gaurds Tank Army, the Naval Infantry Division, and 1/87th Gaurds Airborne will then prepare for to invade Poland from the west and north. They are to proceed with all possible haste to take both cities within two weeks. By then it is hoped that the Polish air force will be destroyed, and all meaningful organised resistance will have been destroyed before a meaningful or logical response can be formulated by the West.

5A. There is always a last step before any plan goes forward. The Soviet Union prepares its people for an explanation for the actions to occur in Poland. If Kania has been asked to do things like purge the armed forces or take other immediately precursory steps, he does them now.

5B. Naval movements, buildups of air forces, troop movements onto the German-Polish border are made. There is no hiding this from the West.

5C. Kania publicly asks for help. It begins to appear within the hour....

This is as close to a final draft of the war plan as I've got right now. I'll have to mull it over more. It's your addendums to the original outline, with stuff worked in. I just put it in the quotes to highlight it. Hope you don't think I'm putting words in your mouth.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I would like to make the point that Brezhnev did come to an arrangement with Poland sans invasion in that the Polish Army effectively replaced the Communist Party as the country's ruler, a terrifying arrangement for many communists, especially in the USSR.

 

[MacCaulay]

I would like to make the point that Brezhnev did come to an arrangement with Poland sans invasion in that the Polish Army effectively replaced the Communist Party as the country's ruler, a terrifying arrangement for many communists, especially in the USSR.

Where's your source on this? I'm reading up like mad on this thing for pre-writing prep and I've yet to come across that. (Not trying to sound like a jerk, I'm just looking to dig up every bit of source material I can.)

Of course, that may mean that the Polish military is pretty much willing to take power. That could work in either direction, especially if they feel threatened.

 

[MacCaulay]

(I know it's not polite to post twice in a row, but still...)

Another thought I've had is that if Kania attempts to flee the country to safety in Soviet hands after initiating a Secret Police sweep of the military, then the government will be headless.

If that happens, then the chances of a Solidarity or Military or Cooperative government taking power in the vacuum (should any of them get out alive and should Warsaw not be taken) go up exponentially. The Poles may even see a Kania bolt as a sign of weakness, and the willingness of the Solidarity and/or Military to take over leadership in the face of an invasion will put the Polish public on their side.

The Soviets would probably understand this, and make sure that Kania stays in Warsaw, perhaps at the Soviet embassy. But if Kania stays somewhere else, and the Poles manage to hold on to Warsaw, then perhaps Kania might get cold feet even after the Invasion starts.

 

[Blue Max]

(I know it's not polite to post twice in a row, but still...)

Another thought I've had is that if Kania attempts to flee the country to safety in Soviet hands after initiating a Secret Police sweep of the military, then the government will be headless.

If that happens, then the chances of a Solidarity or Military or Cooperative government taking power in the vacuum (should any of them get out alive and should Warsaw not be taken) go up exponentially. The Poles may even see a Kania bolt as a sign of weakness, and the willingness of the Solidarity and/or Military to take over leadership in the face of an invasion will put the Polish public on their side.

The Soviets would probably understand this, and make sure that Kania stays in Warsaw, perhaps at the Soviet embassy. But if Kania stays somewhere else, and the Poles manage to hold on to Warsaw, then perhaps Kania might get cold feet even after the Invasion starts.

Kania's actions, and their success and failure have huge implications for the rest of the story. I'd suspect that Kania's efforts probably fail to subdue Polish resistance, and you can expect that the Soviet Union's opinion of him is going to sink as a result. They will probably put him back into office, along with any other "proven" communists, but Kania Government 2.0 is going to be less trusted than before.

I don't think Kania will bolt from Poland entirely--there is probably some place in Poland that he can fall back towards as a bastion of strength. I think Kania would pull a Ceauceascu and flee Warsaw if the situation gets too intense. He'll wind up in another part of the country, where he might die in suspicious circumstances.

I had another thought for the end of Lech Walesa--with the Soviet Forces closing in around him, he goes to the one place where the Soviet Union MUST create a terrible incident.

He goes to church.

Carnage ensues as the Soviets storm the place. And now Walesa is a martyr and the Pope is beyond furious at the actions of the Soviet Union. I'd love to see Castro's face when John Paul II goes berserk after this kind of atrocity...

 

[jotheberlock]

First off, you have Ronnie and Maggie invading the Warsaw Pact - risking World War III, the end of civilization, over Poland. POLAND!?!? Most Americans (and probably quite a few Brits as well) can't even find Poland on a map. .

*cough* It has to be said, one might have thought the same in 1939.

 

[wormyguy]

*cough* It has to be said, one might have thought the same in 1939.

That's true - but Hitler didn't have 30,000 nukes.

 

[jotheberlock]

That's true - but Hitler didn't have 30,000 nukes.

True - but quite a few people in the 1930s did think, nonetheless, that civilisation would literally come to an end if there was another World War (because 'the bomber will always get through'; gas attacks; fear of another trench stalemate and of global economic collapse) - and the war did still happen. I think the analogy is at least slightly useful.

 

[Blue Max]

http://www.faqs.org/cia/docs/36/0000222079/IMPLICATIONS-OF-A-SOVIET-INVASION-IN-POLAND.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bydgoszcz_events

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_warning_strike_in_Poland

I might have been thinking about this operation the wrong way. The Soviet Armed Forces ALREADY have military access into Poland, performing a military exercise--Soyuz 81. THIS, perhaps with covert modifications, is going to be the basis of the Soviet Military attack.

I'm suspecting that we may have to reconsider the PoD; The Soviet Union would order the operation, but no invasion is technically needed. In this case, the Soviet Union "modifies" these exercises to send many more forces into Poland; and then once in position, these guys just jump into the country.

the TL is likely to look like this:

Soviet Union Decides to Shut Down Solidarity
Kania is pressured to go along with it.
Soyuz 81 is increased in scope and size; Solidarity might respond with civil measures, but I think the Soviet Army is going to be able to nip it in the bud.
Purge of Solidarity; Purge of disloyal army elements; Massive Strikes in Poland. It is over quickly, but the costs are huge.
West: Gets furious and sets up a grain embargo; as a modification to my previous threat--the West Pressures Argentina to stop grain shipments to the Soviets.
Cost to the Soviet Union? Another 4B$ a year in rebuilding costs; no ability to rely upon the Polish Army for five years; Polish defiance leading to deliberate idleness and therefore, a massive reduction of output likely.

I'm thinking we may have overthought this one--it is simply not as big in terms of military scale as considered. I'd throw out the threat of NATO mailing in troops, but I know Reagan might well go after Nicaragua.

There will probably be mass arrests; serious resistance by striking unions and polish nationalists--but when has the Soviet Union ever really cared about not just shooting them all? Not pleasant, but the Soviet Union takes down Solidarity, but as the CIA report suggests, they suffer a major propaganda hit and a major financial loss. Western Europe probably doesn't accept the oil pipeline from Russia, and grain imports are going to really hurt the Soviets.

I'm not at all sure that Faeelin is right about the Soviet Food situation. I respect that they were close to the bone, but surely this can be addressed by dedicated more resources to agriculture? There are no shortage of Technocrats out to do things the better way in the Soviet Union. That said, the tab of having to greatly expand food supplies domestically, combined with an ongoing military occupation and a military campaign in Afghanistan is going to be hard to handle.

I'm thinking that the weak link of this scenario, at this point, is how this turns into a serious Polish-Soviet military conflict. The Soviets have access to Moscow and Gdansk without shooting Polish troops to get there. So Kania asks for help, the Soviets aren't on the border, they're on the outskirts of town.

It may well be a PoD like Walesa calls for a General Strike after further atrocities break out...

 

[Faeelin]

I'm not at all sure that Faeelin is right about the Soviet Food situation. I respect that they were close to the bone, but surely this can be addressed by dedicated more resources to agriculture? There are no shortage of Technocrats out to do things the better way in the Soviet Union. That said, the tab of having to greatly expand food supplies domestically, combined with an ongoing military occupation and a military campaign in Afghanistan is going to be hard to handle.

How are the Soviets going to expand food supplies? It's not like you can turn on a switch.

 

[Blue Max]

How are the Soviets going to expand food supplies? It's not like you can turn on a switch.

I respect that; fundamentally, food supply is a result of investment in farmland, tools, methods. The Soviet Union doesn't lack land or material wealth to pay for greater investment in farm supplies. I'm thinking that if they were willing to pare back military spending by something like 10% they would be able to expand farming operations. Given that Soviet Farmworkers are half as productive as their western counterparts, the beginnings of a famine might force the Soviet Government to make concessions--something like farmworkers are exempt from military service if they meet quotas; if food supply is a critical problem the Politburo must address it.

You are correct, but what I think it HAS to be the case is that all nations have some slack in food supply. The Soviets don't starve every winter and spring. It's not going to be pretty, but I think at worst the Soviets have to curb defense spending to pay for farm tools.

Remember, the Soviets don't import most or half of their food; it has suffered the poor effects of low motivation, low spending and frankly, being a hard way to live. I think the Soviet Government, if facing starvation, would have to cut its armed forces. This is explosive, but as I've said before--you can't eat guns.

The implications of the Soviet Union having to go more butter and less guns is certainly important, but it isn't the end of the country and the silly idea of them having to attack is absurd. This is going to make them angry and many people will go hungry, but mass death will be averted and the Soviets are going to be forced to accept higher domestic spending.

 

[MacCaulay]

I'm suspecting that we may have to reconsider the PoD; The Soviet Union would order the operation, but no invasion is technically needed. In this case, the Soviet Union "modifies" these exercises to send many more forces into Poland; and then once in position, these guys just jump into the country.

the TL is likely to look like this:

Soviet Union Decides to Shut Down Solidarity
Kania is pressured to go along with it.
Soyuz 81 is increased in scope and size; Solidarity might respond with civil measures, but I think the Soviet Army is going to be able to nip it in the bud.
Purge of Solidarity; Purge of disloyal army elements; Massive Strikes in Poland. It is over quickly, but the costs are huge.
West: Gets furious and sets up a grain embargo; as a modification to my previous threat--the West Pressures Argentina to stop grain shipments to the Soviets.
Cost to the Soviet Union? Another 4B$ a year in rebuilding costs; no ability to rely upon the Polish Army for five years; Polish defiance leading to deliberate idleness and therefore, a massive reduction of output likely.

I'm thinking we may have overthought this one--it is simply not as big in terms of military scale as considered. I'd throw out the threat of NATO mailing in troops, but I know Reagan might well go after Nicaragua.

There will probably be mass arrests; serious resistance by striking unions and polish nationalists--but when has the Soviet Union ever really cared about not just shooting them all? Not pleasant, but the Soviet Union takes down Solidarity, but as the CIA report suggests, they suffer a major propaganda hit and a major financial loss. Western Europe probably doesn't accept the oil pipeline from Russia, and grain imports are going to really hurt the Soviets.

I'm thinking that the weak link of this scenario, at this point, is how this turns into a serious Polish-Soviet military conflict. The Soviets have access to Moscow and Gdansk without shooting Polish troops to get there. So Kania asks for help, the Soviets aren't on the border, they're on the outskirts of town.

It may well be a PoD like Walesa calls for a General Strike after further atrocities break out...

I actually think I started thinking about that around the same time you did, sometime last night I thought to myself..."The Soviets will have to rely on East German stocks, since they can't ship through Poland to invade it...wait? Who's in Poland to route the stuff? It must be Soviet troops!"


In my mind, if we're looking for the "big bang effect," it would probably be the military finding out about the purges because the Kania government or KGB operatives go after it either hamhandedly (the Kania government) or with a lack of understanding of the situation (the KGB). Then they decide that the only chance they have to save their skins is to take power themselves, kick the Soviets out and seize their assets in country, and negotiate from a position of relative strength.
The attempted Purges will highlight who is with the government and who is against it. And if the military attempts to take power and succeeds, it will have a trustworthy ally in Solidarity, and it will know exactly who in it's own upper echelons can be trusted. The lower ranks will be expected to do their jobs, I'd presume.

I guess...we've got two ways to go, the immense civil unrest, or the big-bodda-boom. Though it seems logical that the two might end up melding when the military and Solidarity realize that one has the PR and the other has the muscle.

 

[Blue Max]

I actually think I started thinking about that around the same time you did, sometime last night I thought to myself..."The Soviets will have to rely on East German stocks, since they can't ship through Poland to invade it...wait? Who's in Poland to route the stuff? It must be Soviet troops!"


In my mind, if we're looking for the "big bang effect," it would probably be the military finding out about the purges because the Kania government or KGB operatives go after it either hamhandedly (the Kania government) or with a lack of understanding of the situation (the KGB). Then they decide that the only chance they have to save their skins is to take power themselves, kick the Soviets out and seize their assets in country, and negotiate from a position of relative strength.
The attempted Purges will highlight who is with the government and who is against it. And if the military attempts to take power and succeeds, it will have a trustworthy ally in Solidarity, and it will know exactly who in it's own upper echelons can be trusted. The lower ranks will be expected to do their jobs, I'd presume.

I guess...we've got two ways to go, the immense civil unrest, or the big-bodda-boom. Though it seems logical that the two might end up melding when the military and Solidarity realize that one has the PR and the other has the muscle.

Hmm.

I'm stumped on this one. I think that Poland's armed forces would be more than insane to attempt to attack the Soviet troops in their country. I mean, that's bad enough the Soviets will at least rattle their nuclear siloes. It seems unthinkable, but remember that Poland BORDERS the Soviet Union and everything Wormy said about hostile forces within miles of Kalningrad stands.

If Poland appears to initiate the shooting war, I think the West would urge "restraint" from the Soviet Union and they'd be unable to do anything other than roll their eyes at Solidarity. They might be able to cut a deal with the Soviet Union on humanitarian aid for Poland, but I can't believe the west is going to back Poland in this situation anymore then we backed Georgia when they attacked Russia!

So the attempt to clamp down on Solidarity and Poland's armed forces is horribly botched. Okay, fair enough; they can certainly raise hell. But them attacking the Soviet forces on their turf? And what about nuclear weapons again? Do the Soviets station nuclear weapons in Poland?

There is no way in a million years the Soviets can allow Poland to jack control of even a handful of nuclear devices; they will use nuclear ordinance to destroy a captured device if this is necessary.

A similar question should be raised about Soviet Ships in the Lenin Shipyards.

What I'm getting at is that the Soviet Union, if attacked on this scale by a neighbor is going to be justified in hitting really, REALLY hard. The West will expect a heavy Soviet response; the West would probably even have to swallow a Soviet nuclear hit against captured nuclear assets.

In short, this is going from Poland the victim to Poland the suicidal maniac.

 

[MacCaulay]

Hmm.

I'm stumped on this one. I think that Poland's armed forces would be more than insane to attempt to attack the Soviet troops in their country. I mean, that's bad enough the Soviets will at least rattle their nuclear siloes. It seems unthinkable, but remember that Poland BORDERS the Soviet Union and everything Wormy said about hostile forces within miles of Kalningrad stands.

If Poland appears to initiate the shooting war, I think the West would urge "restraint" from the Soviet Union and they'd be unable to do anything other than roll their eyes at Solidarity. They might be able to cut a deal with the Soviet Union on humanitarian aid for Poland, but I can't believe the west is going to back Poland in this situation anymore then we backed Georgia when they attacked Russia!

So the attempt to clamp down on Solidarity and Poland's armed forces is horribly botched. Okay, fair enough; they can certainly raise hell. But them attacking the Soviet forces on their turf? And what about nuclear weapons again? Do the Soviets station nuclear weapons in Poland?

There is no way in a million years the Soviets can allow Poland to jack control of even a handful of nuclear devices; they will use nuclear ordinance to destroy a captured device if this is necessary.

A similar question should be raised about Soviet Ships in the Lenin Shipyards.

What I'm getting at is that the Soviet Union, if attacked on this scale by a neighbor is going to be justified in hitting really, REALLY hard. The West will expect a heavy Soviet response; the West would probably even have to swallow a Soviet nuclear hit against captured nuclear assets.

In short, this is going from Poland the victim to Poland the suicidal maniac.

At work today I came up with the idea of the Polish military basically surrounding some of the Soviet garrisons and telling them that they need evacuate or face the consequences.

After a failed purge of the military, and a countercoup, then the Soviets wouldn't have had any actual military action done against them, but they'd be in a bad position. The Poles, however, would come out looking like folks who just wanted to be left alone in their country.

The problems would only come when (and if) the Soviets decide to pick the time and place of their return to Warsaw themselves, and begin evacuating, moving the nuclear armaments out first. They basically move every bit of Soviet materiel they can stick on a truck (that the Poles will let them get away with) and move it into East Germany to prepare for the upcoming invasion.

This gives the Poles something like a...Warsaw Spring. A few weeks where they are in control of their country independently while the Soviets rapidly mobilize in East Germany for the invasion to put Kania (or someone else, depending on what the military has done to him) back into power.

Going this route puts one big question in: Does the west recognize a military government that replaced a communist one?


Or, we could play off that great idea you pitched, Blue Max: fleeing a Soviet bid to take Gdansk, Lech Wolesa takes shelter in a church halfway between Warsaw and the port city.
The military, after staging it's coup, decides that they don't want to present a uniformed face to the world, but that Wolesa would be a much better public face to present to the world as the head of their government (possibly as part of a Politburo-esque setup).
A Polish army force heads north to get Wolesa, while a Soviet force heads south.

This is just me spitballing. Do be honest, I don't know if the two would even go together.

 

[Blue Max]

And we are back at square one again.

Red Army Logistical ties to East Germany go through Poland, right? So, withdrawing from Poland is fundamentally unworkable; otherwise, the Soviets would just mail in a "Convoy" that turns out to be much larger than the others and it drives through Warsaw and has an odd stop.

A threat to Soviet Nuclear Weapons and I don't think the Soviets can back down. Yes, they'll try to get them out if they can, but really, the Soviets will not allow Poland to blackmail them with their own nuclear ordinance.

Furthermore, I would expect even a temporary pullout from Warsaw to lead to Brezhnev's resignation. No doubt in my mind that this is a massive concession that Suslov, Andropov and Chermenko will all jump on. Maybe this is a part of your plan--turning the change in government into a justification for reversing policy. But figure that Brezhnev pulling back will be explosive.

If we want to go with Walesa's death being the trigger, we could go back to my presented options and go with a KGB assassination in a church. That would be incindiary. But then the next part--of Poland's armed forces attempting a coup, perhaps while giving lip service to Marxist-Leninism to appease Moscow, and then somehow getting Moscow to LEAVE. That's a nasty situation.

I agree the Soviets will try to pull nuclear ordinance (and for completeness, their shipping) out of Poland if they go for a pull-out, but I don't think Moscow will give up on transit rights, air and naval support and stationing nuclear weapons (remember, the Soviet Union is in the position of advantage in a nuclear war, and would not want to risk losing it due to pulling out IRBMs or other ordinance.) I Know that the Soviets have short range nukes in Poland (SCUDs and FROGs) but if the Poles get their hands on them the Soviets will do anything to stop them.

@The West: Depends on the speed in which developments happen. There is a hell of a lot happening here.

 

[MacCaulay]

Man...this whole thing's falling to pieces in a hurry.

Okay...obviously, there were these forces in Poland. But if the USSR had those forces there, then why in OTL did they go through that disastrous mobilization attempt in the East to prepare for an invasion? There must've been some reason they couldn't use the troops in country.


I can't see them going for the nuclear option, if for no other reason than that they've got to use that land later for transitting of aircraft and tanks. And it would suck to have to decontaminate your rolling stock every time it comes through the "rad zone". (But that's an argument you and I have been over, and I think you and me are either on the same side for different reasons, or different sides for the same reasons.)

 

[Blue Max]

Man...this whole thing's falling to pieces in a hurry.

Okay...obviously, there were these forces in Poland. But if the USSR had those forces there, then why in OTL did they go through that disastrous mobilization attempt in the East to prepare for an invasion? There must've been some reason they couldn't use the troops in country.


I can't see them going for the nuclear option, if for no other reason than that they've got to use that land later for transitting of aircraft and tanks. And it would suck to have to decontaminate your rolling stock every time it comes through the "rad zone". (But that's an argument you and I have been over, and I think you and me are either on the same side for different reasons, or different sides for the same reasons.)

Nukes are only going to show up if Poland does something stupid like march into Soviet Territory or if they've jacked Soviet Nuclear Weapons. As an Author, you must use your powers for good and avoid these situations! The Soviets will not nuke unless they consider themselves in grave danger; Poland must not create such a situation. And yes, if the choice is nuclear blackmail or slagging Poland, I think the Soviets will press the buttons.

I'm not sure what that mobilization was about--was it supposed to be a secret from Poland? Those forces, you said, were class C reservists. They would have had no part in a massive military exercise, at least not for a reason that would fool the Polish Armed Forces.

What I'm seeing happening now is:

• KGB kills Walesa in a Church

• Polish Armed Forces Support Solidarity; they opt to wait Soyuz 81 out--a deal is quietly hammered between Solidarity and Poland's armed forces.
• "White Day": Poland's armed forces arrest Kania; overwhelm Soviet assets in Poland.
• Brezhnev, who is about to be removed from power in Moscow, decides to do a last good deed for his country--in exchange for safe removal of Soviet Shipping and nuclear weapons, and limited transit rights, Brezhnev will allow the coalition to stay in power.
• Brezhnev's enemies in the Politburo don't settle for exiling Brezhnev. His "Heart Attack" is a foil for his execution in the hands of the KGB.
• Andropov becomes the next Chairman; his intention is to honor "Brezhnev's agreement" for as little time as possible.
• Because of the terms of the deal with Poland, the Soviets are unable to mass forces in the country--they will be able to have an invade force inside when the shooting starts, but it will not be large enough to do much. Fortunately, no Soviet Nukes are at risk...

Cue some variant of the Mac Plan...

 

[MacCaulay]

I'm not sure what that mobilization was about--was it supposed to be a secret from Poland? Those forces, you said, were class C reservists. They would have had no part in a massive military exercise, at least not for a reason that would fool the Polish Armed Forces.

What I'm seeing happening now is:

• KGB kills Walesa in a Church

• Polish Armed Forces Support Solidarity; they opt to wait Soyuz 81 out--a deal is quietly hammered between Solidarity and Poland's armed forces.
• "White Day": Poland's armed forces arrest Kania; overwhelm Soviet assets in Poland.
• Brezhnev, who is about to be removed from power in Moscow, decides to do a last good deed for his country--in exchange for safe removal of Soviet Shipping and nuclear weapons, and limited transit rights, Brezhnev will allow the coalition to stay in power.
• Brezhnev's enemies in the Politburo don't settle for exiling Brezhnev. His "Heart Attack" is a foil for his execution in the hands of the KGB.
• Andropov becomes the next Chairman; his intention is to honor "Brezhnev's agreement" for as little time as possible.
• Because of the terms of the deal with Poland, the Soviets are unable to mass forces in the country--they will be able to have an invade force inside when the shooting starts, but it will not be large enough to do much. Fortunately, no Soviet Nukes are at risk...

Cue some variant of the Mac Plan...

You know, I almost talked myself out of doing this, but you've managed to pitch this back at me. Alright...so...what would the Poles allow the Soviets to leave with? The nuclear weapons, yes, but they will probably want to keep as many conventional weapons as possible, almost to the point of telling the Soviets they can only take what they can fit on their trucks but they must leave the trains and the spare parts for the combat aircraft.

Once the Soviets leave, the Poles will have no source of parts from the outside world except for what they can scrounge from the Soviet bases.

This chain of events also unites the Polish public behind the memory of Walesa. They've got a martyr, and they haven't even had a war yet. I forget the name of his second-in-command...crap. I should know this by heart by now...but in any case, he'd probably be the one to step up.

Okay...this is right in my wheelhouse...



As an aside, about the Reservist mobilization in OTL...

The mobilization, from what I've been able to figure out, was basically the generals saying to Brezhnev: "We want to invade Poland to put down Solidarity."
Brezhnev didn't want it to happen, so he told them: "Fine. Call up troops from the Polish/Soviet border." He did it, knowing that it was going to be a mess. The Generals thought that they might be able to bluff their way through it.
Then the reservists not only didn't do well when they showed up, they barely even showed up at all. To the point that the Army couldn't even prosecute people because they didn't have the ability to prosecute the sheer number of reservists who didn't show up.

This was telling me that the troops in Poland were (for some reason) not viable for what the Soviets were planning. Perhaps they were not the type of troops the Soviets were wanting to use for an invasion, perhaps they were better used for gaurding what nuclear weapons were on the ground.
They may have been Class A troops, but not usable for what the Soviets needed.