The Invasion of Poland, 1981

The better question is, why can't Poland take it all?

Here's why:

Nukes: Mac's First Law (I think I get that right. If you have a crappy story nukes do not make it cool.)
SRBMs/Nuke Launchers: A close second to nukes, although probably less sensitive than the warheads themselves. Neither Poland nor the Soviets have any intention of using them, why not?
Bio/Chem weapons: Really, the Scientists are the important piece of the puzzle here, if any such facilities exist.
Soldiers: Poland will probably allow and encourage Soviet soldiers to defect; but in all likelihood, PoWs cost Poland resources and add justification to Moscow's actions.
Ships: Ships are crewed by Soviet Crewmen, leading to another Prisoner situation. Cargoes can vary--and while the Poles might jack the Cargo of a merchant ship, I'm not sure they wouldn't free the ship afterward...
Aircraft: The Soviets can pull these out too quickly; something in a maintenance shop is probably left behind, but anything the Soviets can pull out is probably gone.
Vehicles: Anything the Soviets can drive out under its own power probably is pulled out of Poland, unless its crew defects. Furthermore, Poland's deal with Brezhnev means that the Soviets are taking trucks and trains out anyhow.

That leaves weapons, food supplies, some heavy weapons, aircraft in need of repair, and possibly a few defectors.

Figure that Walesa's murder in a church is explosive and leads to a national uprising, which is barely contained because of the Soviet forces in the country--note that people like the Pope are begging and pleading the Polish people to avoid getting cut to pieces by the Red Army.

Brezhnev's deal is PROBABLY brokered partially because he know's he's a dead man, and perhaps as a dirty little secret, the Poles DID manage to jack Soviet nukes. This secret act of blackmail is not going to meet the public eye for twenty years, but it will turn out that Brezhnev either had the choice of cutting a deal or facing a hostile nuclear power...

That said, officially, Soviet Nukes have been under their complete control--and while the Polish move was incidential the first time, if it happens again Andropov will not fall on his sword like Brezhnev did...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The better question is, why can't Poland take it all?

Here's why:

Nukes: Mac's First Law (I think I get that right. If you have a crappy story nukes do not make it cool.)
SRBMs/Nuke Launchers: A close second to nukes, although probably less sensitive than the warheads themselves. Neither Poland nor the Soviets have any intention of using them, why not?
Bio/Chem weapons: Really, the Scientists are the important piece of the puzzle here, if any such facilities exist.
Soldiers: Poland will probably allow and encourage Soviet soldiers to defect; but in all likelihood, PoWs cost Poland resources and add justification to Moscow's actions.
Ships: Ships are crewed by Soviet Crewmen, leading to another Prisoner situation. Cargoes can vary--and while the Poles might jack the Cargo of a merchant ship, I'm not sure they wouldn't free the ship afterward...
Aircraft: The Soviets can pull these out too quickly; something in a maintenance shop is probably left behind, but anything the Soviets can pull out is probably gone.
Vehicles: Anything the Soviets can drive out under its own power probably is pulled out of Poland, unless its crew defects. Furthermore, Poland's deal with Brezhnev means that the Soviets are taking trucks and trains out anyhow.

That leaves weapons, food supplies, some heavy weapons, aircraft in need of repair, and possibly a few defectors.

Figure that Walesa's murder in a church is explosive and leads to a national uprising, which is barely contained because of the Soviet forces in the country--note that people like the Pope are begging and pleading the Polish people to avoid getting cut to pieces by the Red Army.

Brezhnev's deal is PROBABLY brokered partially because he know's he's a dead man, and perhaps as a dirty little secret, the Poles DID manage to jack Soviet nukes. This secret act of blackmail is not going to meet the public eye for twenty years, but it will turn out that Brezhnev either had the choice of cutting a deal or facing a hostile nuclear power...

That said, officially, Soviet Nukes have been under their complete control--and while the Polish move was incidential the first time, if it happens again Andropov will not fall on his sword like Brezhnev did...

You got the rule right. I've to admit it's an honour to have it quoted back to me!

So then this means that the Soviets and Poles will not actually ever cross swords until perhaps...early-82. April, perhaps. That would be most advantageous for the Soviets. Invade Poland while the world is looking to the South Atlantic and watching the Falklands. Perhaps some of the PR will be deflected.
 

wormyguy

Banned
Nukes: Mac's First Law (I think I get that right. If you have a crappy story nukes do not make it cool.)
Yeah, trying to keep those will turn Poland from freedom fighter to rogue state in an instant.
SRBMs/Nuke Launchers: A close second to nukes, although probably less sensitive than the warheads themselves. Neither Poland nor the Soviets have any intention of using them, why not?
Ditto.
Bio/Chem weapons: Really, the Scientists are the important piece of the puzzle here, if any such facilities exist.
Only in the Soviet Union itself, and only in towns which don't exist, at that.
Soldiers: Poland will probably allow and encourage Soviet soldiers to defect; but in all likelihood, PoWs cost Poland resources and add justification to Moscow's actions.
Exactly - if Poland takes prisoners by force, they justify a Soviet invasion and surrender the moral high ground. Good like trying to convince them to defect - they have a slim chance of living in a hostile country whose language they do not speak, hoping they are not found once again by Soviet forces and summarily executed, unable to return to their home country ever again, because they're traitors.
Ships: Ships are crewed by Soviet Crewmen, leading to another Prisoner situation. Cargoes can vary--and while the Poles might jack the Cargo of a merchant ship, I'm not sure they wouldn't free the ship afterward...
Any attacks on civilians causes them to lose the moral high ground.
Aircraft: The Soviets can pull these out too quickly; something in a maintenance shop is probably left behind, but anything the Soviets can pull out is probably gone.
Either flown away or destroyed on the ground. The Polish Air Force, if it attempts to resist or the Soviets think it would, is probably almost entirely destroyed on the ground through sabotage and bombing.
Vehicles: Anything the Soviets can drive out under its own power probably is pulled out of Poland, unless its crew defects. Furthermore, Poland's deal with Brezhnev means that the Soviets are taking trucks and trains out anyhow.
Anything that the Soviets have to leave behind probably gets destroyed, to prevent their use by Polish forces.
That leaves weapons, food supplies, some heavy weapons, aircraft in need of repair, and possibly a few defectors.
Again, the Soviets would destroy as many aircraft and weapons caches as they could.

Figure that Walesa's murder in a church is explosive and leads to a national uprising, which is barely contained because of the Soviet forces in the country--note that people like the Pope are begging and pleading the Polish people to avoid getting cut to pieces by the Red Army.
Do you really think the Soviets would be that stupid? Most likely, he leaves the church safely, but his dinner has higher than the recommended daily value of Polonium.

Brezhnev's deal is PROBABLY brokered partially because he know's he's a dead man, and perhaps as a dirty little secret, the Poles DID manage to jack Soviet nukes. This secret act of blackmail is not going to meet the public eye for twenty years, but it will turn out that Brezhnev either had the choice of cutting a deal or facing a hostile nuclear power...
The only way Soviet nukes could end up in Polish hands is by accident, which is unlikely. If there is so much of a hint that the Poles are attempting to take Soviet nukes by force, Poland gets glassed in a heartbeat.
 
You got the rule right. I've to admit it's an honour to have it quoted back to me!

So then this means that the Soviets and Poles will not actually ever cross swords until perhaps...early-82. April, perhaps. That would be most advantageous for the Soviets. Invade Poland while the world is looking to the South Atlantic and watching the Falklands. Perhaps some of the PR will be deflected.

Yeah, I suppose that if Andropov is building a government after Brezhnev unfortunate heart attack, he'll need time to get things in place. He'll need to promote a loyal stooge to his old seat, and he has essentially promised to Deal with Poland.

Note that any good plan for a Soviet Invasion of Poland means making it look like the Poles are to blame...]

EDIT @Wormy: That might be Kania's blunder in terms of shooting Walesa; I'm suggesting the nukes are an unlikely accident. The Poles intercept the wrong truck. I agree with your assessment, but I think that unless Brezhnev has to deal we won't, and that's the admittedly long shot of this scenario. If you can figure out an alternative, that would be great.
 
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MacCaulay

Banned
The only way Soviet nukes could end up in Polish hands is by accident, which is unlikely. If there is so much of a hint that the Poles are attempting to take Soviet nukes by force, Poland gets glassed in a heartbeat.

You wrote the rule, man. You wrote the final draft of it. And besides, not to belabour a point I made before...do they want to have to detox all their trains for the next 40 years after they get shipped through wherever they drop the bombs?

And I'd love to know how that IRBM launch would look to NORAD...

...but that's not this story. Jeez...that's not any story I want to write, to be completely honest with you.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Yeah, I suppose that if Andropov is building a government after Brezhnev's unfortunate heart attack, he'll need time to get things in place. He'll need to promote a loyal stooge to his old seat, and he has essentially promised to Deal with Poland.

Note that any good plan for a Soviet Invasion of Poland means making it look like the Poles are to blame...

Well, the choices are either that the Soviets truck their stuff over the Dnieper to find the 2nd Shock Army (with all 2 or 3 weeks of prep) waiting to go back in to capitalize on surprise, or they can wait for a few months and really make an example out of them.

And since it's Andropov and he's got that whole KGB thing going on...I think I could see him taking a "wait and see" approach.
 
You wrote the rule, man. You wrote the final draft of it. And besides, not to belabour a point I made before...do they want to have to detox all their trains for the next 40 years after they get shipped through wherever they drop the bombs?

And I'd love to know how that IRBM launch would look to NORAD...

...but that's not this story. Jeez...that's not any story I want to write, to be completely honest with you.

Mac, I think Brezhnev having to deal because the Poles accidentally get nukes is a good way to get started.

Wormy is correct, Nuclear Poland is going to be unacceptable to the Soviet Union. What you are forgeting is that the Soviets are likely to use only a single nuclear device against the weapons if they can possibly help it. No, that's not cool, but Poland is still their reluctant pet and they don't want to kill it.

A nuclear hit INSIDE the Soviet Union is going to be a bump to DEFCON 3 in Europe but probably ends quickly when Moscow calls Washington and informs them that Poland has gone totally insane!
 

wormyguy

Banned
You wrote the rule, man. You wrote the final draft of it. And besides, not to belabour a point I made before...do they want to have to detox all their trains for the next 40 years after they get shipped through wherever they drop the bombs?

And I'd love to know how that IRBM launch would look to NORAD...

...but that's not this story. Jeez...that's not any story I want to write, to be completely honest with you.
Well, if the Polish want a nuclear chip on the table for negotiating, they've always got the Americans. From the Soviet perspective, considering that the events have probably been brewing quite a bit of paranoia, an attempt by the Poles to take one of the Soviet nukes by force will be seen as an attempt to turn a regional war into a nuclear war. The Soviets will not hesitate to defend their population in a nuclear fashion. When you've got Moscow on the line, a few million Poles and some trains cease to matter. Your law stands, but in certain ridiculous situations, it doesn't. What do you think the Soviet reaction would be if an American commando team parachuted into Poland and seized control of a Soviet nuke? I bet it sure as hell wouldn't be diplomatic.

EDIT: Blue Max is correct, however, in that the Soviets would use as few nukes as possible. If we get even sillier and assume that the Polish launch against the Soviet Union, though, the whole country resembles the surface of the moon.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Mac, I think Brezhnev having to deal because the Poles accidentally get nukes is a good way to get started.

Wormy is correct, Nuclear Poland is going to be unacceptable to the Soviet Union. What you are forgeting is that the Soviets are likely to use only a single nuclear device against the weapons if they can possibly help it. No, that's not cool, but Poland is still their reluctant pet and they don't want to kill it.

A nuclear hit INSIDE the Soviet Union is going to be a bump to DEFCON 3 in Europe but probably ends quickly when Moscow calls Washington and informs them that Poland has gone totally insane!

I just don't think they'd want to use one anyway. Not if there was some way they didn't have to. That ups the ante way higher than they've had to go before. And that pushes that ante higher in a place they probably never thought they'd have to push it in.

I think the logic of the Poles telling the Soviets (or just Brezhnev through the Polish embassy) that they have a nuclear weapon and are willing to let it go in exchange for recognition is interesting. But it's something I'd have to see a killer pitch for.
 
I just don't think they'd want to use one anyway. Not if there was some way they didn't have to. That ups the ante way higher than they've had to go before. And that pushes that ante higher in a place they probably never thought they'd have to push it in.

I think the logic of the Poles telling the Soviets (or just Brezhnev through the Polish embassy) that they have a nuclear weapon and are willing to let it go in exchange for recognition is interesting. But it's something I'd have to see a killer pitch for.

Right; Poland doesn't want nukes, it wants respect.

My thinking is that this is a backroom deal with Brezhnev personally speaking to a Polish General who will take a high role in the new government.

Frankly, I'm not so much in favor of this nuclear loss causing the deal as I am unable to come up with an easier explanation. Gorbachev is the leading dove in the Politburo, but he doesn't have the clout to try anything here. And he'd be a dead man if he tried it.

I know this isn't terribly persuasive, but the point of this backroom deal would be to keep this loss of a nuke as a TOTAL secret. If the Soviets refuse to deal, then Poland goes public with the device, but this would likely end in tragedy and both sides know it. Brezhnev is a dead man, but he's stopped a greater tragedy and while we might not know for thirty years, this is dying something of a hero.
 

wormyguy

Banned
If you must introduce some sort of bargaining chip for the Poles, you could always (I know) introduce conspiracy theories. Maybe the Poles find proof that Soviet/Polish intelligence was behind the JFK assassination, for instance. Or else a less-ASB but still monumentally-damaging diplomatically thing for the Soviets. KGB active spies list? An account of the purges Stalin was planning before his death? Targets designated for various leftist terrorist groups in the west?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Right; Poland doesn't want nukes, it wants respect.

My thinking is that this is a backroom deal with Brezhnev personally speaking to a Polish General who will take a high role in the new government.

Frankly, I'm not so much in favor of this nuclear loss causing the deal as I am unable to come up with an easier explanation. Gorbachev is the leading dove in the Politburo, but he doesn't have the clout to try anything here. And he'd be a dead man if he tried it.

I know this isn't terribly persuasive, but the point of this backroom deal would be to keep this loss of a nuke as a TOTAL secret. If the Soviets refuse to deal, then Poland goes public with the device, but this would likely end in tragedy and both sides know it. Brezhnev is a dead man, but he's stopped a greater tragedy and while we might not know for thirty years, this is dying something of a hero.

Let me think about it.

Okay...maybe this will help...let's work from the beginning up to that point, then maybe we'll see things clearer. We're sort of jumping around all over the place.

The exact POD would be sometime in late-81.
-The Army and Defense chiefs (somehow; this is your bailiwick) manage to outmaneuver Brezhnev and let themselves cherry pick the units for an invasion of Poland to put down Solidarity. This begins to sideline Brezhnev.

-The plans are drawn up, and the KGB is dispatched to Warsaw to inform Kania that the Soviet Union will be handling Solidarity unilaterally, and that they expect his government to provide the welcome mat for them when they ask for it.
The also inform Kania that this is to be the beginning of a general housecleaning in Poland, and they expect him to run a tighter ship. Kania understands and begins to set the Sluzba Bezpieczenstwa (SB or Security Service) to begin preparing for a purge of politically unreliable military and police officers.

-After a few months of planning, the Soviets inform Kania that the moment is at hand. During a Solidarity march in early December, 1981, Kania declares martial law and asks for Soviet intervention against the Solidarity movement who he says has begun rioting in Gdansk. Soviet troops on an amphibious vessel in the harbour helicopter in and begin arresting Solidarity marchers, who start rioting in actuality. As soon as the Soviet helicopters are within sight of shore, Lech Walesa is on the road out of the city and heading towards a safe house that is actually a Catholic Church outside the city.
In Warsaw and in several Army and Air Force bases around the country, hamhanded attempts are made by the Security Service to assassinate several generals. All but one fail. The assassins are caught, and the military quickly learns what is happening.
With Soviet troops in Gdansk and their own government out to kill them, the Generals (aware of their status as targets after interrogation of the SB gunmen) move quickly to Warsaw with a small group of troops, landing at the airport and storming the capital after a short, fierce gunbattle with SB troopers. They appear to be the only uniformed people left willing to stand with the Kania regime against the military.
Within five days of the imposition of martial law by Kania, he is dead. The military is in power in Warsaw.

-The military junta's next move is to open direct negotiations with Brezhnev, all the while preparing what forces they can scrape together in the circumstances to move north to surround the Soviets at Gdansk.
The western embassies in Warsaw are balking at recognizing their new government, and the generals are well aware of the way the must appear to the outside world. They decide that in order to keep a broad base of support, they must include Solidarity in their power bloc. They decide to move troops north not only to pen in the Soviets, but also to get Walesa and bring him back to form part of the government.
It is too late. Walesa is already dead, from a KGB bullet. His body has been recovered from the burning church it was in, but the pictures will haunt the Russians long after the conflict has ended.


Okay...that's a rough draft up to...well...up to the death of Lech Walesa. It'll be MUCH longer, of course. Any changes?
 
Let me think about it.

Okay...maybe this will help...let's work from the beginning up to that point, then maybe we'll see things clearer. We're sort of jumping around all over the place.

The exact POD would be sometime in late-81.
-The Army and Defense chiefs (somehow; this is your bailiwick) manage to outmaneuver Brezhnev and let themselves cherry pick the units for an invasion of Poland to put down Solidarity. This begins to sideline Brezhnev.

-The plans are drawn up, and the KGB is dispatched to Warsaw to inform Kania that the Soviet Union will be handling Solidarity unilaterally, and that they expect his government to provide the welcome mat for them when they ask for it.
The also inform Kania that this is to be the beginning of a general housecleaning in Poland, and they expect him to run a tighter ship. Kania understands and begins to set the Sluzba Bezpieczenstwa (SB or Security Service) to begin preparing for a purge of politically unreliable military and police officers.

-After a few months of planning, the Soviets inform Kania that the moment is at hand. During a Solidarity march in early December, 1981, Kania declares martial law and asks for Soviet intervention against the Solidarity movement who he says has begun rioting in Gdansk. Soviet troops on an amphibious vessel in the harbour helicopter in and begin arresting Solidarity marchers, who start rioting in actuality. As soon as the Soviet helicopters are within sight of shore, Lech Walesa is on the road out of the city and heading towards a safe house that is actually a Catholic Church outside the city.
In Warsaw and in several Army and Air Force bases around the country, hamhanded attempts are made by the Security Service to assassinate several generals. All but one fail. The assassins are caught, and the military quickly learns what is happening.
With Soviet troops in Gdansk and their own government out to kill them, the Generals (aware of their status as targets after interrogation of the SB gunmen) move quickly to Warsaw with a small group of troops, landing at the airport and storming the capital after a short, fierce gunbattle with SB troopers. They appear to be the only uniformed people left willing to stand with the Kania regime against the military.
Within five days of the imposition of martial law by Kania, he is dead. The military is in power in Warsaw.

-The military junta's next move is to open direct negotiations with Brezhnev, all the while preparing what forces they can scrape together in the circumstances to move north to surround the Soviets at Gdansk.
The western embassies in Warsaw are balking at recognizing their new government, and the generals are well aware of the way the must appear to the outside world. They decide that in order to keep a broad base of support, they must include Solidarity in their power bloc. They decide to move troops north not only to pen in the Soviets, but also to get Walesa and bring him back to form part of the government.
It is too late. Walesa is already dead, from a KGB bullet. His body has been recovered from the burning church it was in, but the pictures will haunt the Russians long after the conflict has ended.


Okay...that's a rough draft up to...well...up to the death of Lech Walesa. It'll be MUCH longer, of course. Any changes?

Well, first of all, this is Defense and the KGB playing ball, so that's Andropov and Ustinov teaming up; perhaps the ideologue Suslov joins this effort. Brezhnev's views on Poland are politely ignored in formality and outright discarded in practice; this is the beginning of the end of Brezhnev.

Second, the SB is likely to continue the fight as a fifth column; the SB director likely sees himself as Kania's successor, and the Kremlin may agree with this opinion. I'd call that fellow the likely next leader of Poland--if the SB puts up a decent fight.

Third; we've forgotten about the CIA. The CIA will probably not understand the purpose of more units to Poland, as there is a military exercise in progress. The purge is going to be actionable. Consider that John Paul II is going to throw the CIA a big hand and will probably forward political information to them; historically he helped a great deal in Poland and ITTL I'd have to imagine he'd dedicate the full resources of Poland's Catholic Church to preventing a disaster.

By the point of the Purges and the Warsaw shootout, the CIA is going to know that there is a coup in progress. The CIA will also know its leadership; as the Generals are going to be looking for opposition figures to legitimize their governance, there is an excellent chance that the CIA gets at least a mid-level insider in Poland's new government.

I don't know if the CIA has penetrated the SB. If they have not, they may think that Kania is behind this mess and totally destroyed himself--this false message is probably what the KGB wants Washington to think. Washington probably condemns Kania's government for atrocities, but behind the scenes this is a masquerade to determine just how involved the Soviet Union really is.

The CIA probably knows when Kania dies; they probably know that the head of the SB is probably leading the Pro-Communist efforts in Poland (That's perhaps too logical a choice). The world knows that Walesa is dead; KGB assassination will be strongly alleged publicly and the CIA will receive confirmation from the Catholic Church that it is as it appears.

It is a quick pace, but the CIA probably has a report the night of the Shootout in Warsaw. Walesa's death will take a couple days to become public knowledge, so that's going to be about a week before the storm breaks...

Its enough time to form ranks and end exercises; perhaps enough time to make political decisions in the Polish situation. It is not, however, enough time for any kind of overt action.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
So it looks like...then...we've got a fairly good handle on things up to the death of Lech Walesa. Which is a pretty fair way down the road.

It seems to me that any information the CIA would be getting from the SB would be indirect. They may have informers in the Warsaw police, and those police will probably have hookups to the SB. This might give them a rough idea something fishy is up, but I wouldn't think they'd know what was going on before BBC World Service and their own ambassador and embassy staff started reporting there was a firefight in Warsaw.

This might be the time to think about dividing up writing duties, and which parts which of us want. It seems that you're gravitating towards the outside-Poland stuff.

I've got to admit, this is looking alot better now than it was about an hour and a half ago.
 
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