The Invasion of Japan

[Historyfan 92]

WI the Americans had not developed the Atomic Bomb, and instead had invaded the Japanese Home Islands in 1945?

 

[antisocrates]

Japan would have fallen?Either that or the US commits genocide by blockading Japan and starving the whole lot to death?

 

[Max Sinister]

I once read that the Japanese had threatened to kill all allied POWs in case of a landing on the Home Islands. Does anybody know whether this is true?

 

[stodge]

Operation Olympic and Coronet

Whatever would or would not have happened with the A-Bomb, the key here is the Soviet position. Assuming the invasion of Manchuria occurs as in OTL and with the same result, the Japanese find themselves in mid-August with the Russians geographically much closer than the Americans.

The key is the position of the Emperor. The Japanese Government yielded in OTL because the Americans made certain guarantees regarding the security and immunity of the Emperor. The Japanese knew that there would still be an Emperor with the Americans, with the Russians Hirohito would be liquidated.

Thus, capitulation to the Americans was always preferrable to conquest by the Russians or partition of Japan itself.

I think therefore the Japanese would have surrendered anyway in order to pre-empt a Russian landing on Hokkaido or elsewhere.

 

[sumwhereinCA]

in the first day of the invasion it was projected that 31,000 Americans and 70,000 Japanese would die. All Japanese were trained to kill for their emperor and even the small children were trained to strap bombs to their chest and blow up tanks. Unless the emperor of Japan steps in and surrenders, like he did after the atomic bombings, the people of Japan would all perish.

 

[Melior]

U.S. invades Japan with terrible looses. Japan has terrain prohibiting combined arms operation warfare, rather relying on infantry with artillery support and air cover. US troops will have to fight every rock, every woods, every house in every village, on the enemy homeland territory. Russia lost tens of thousands soliders in operation Berlin. Berlin compared to japan is like storming a friends room to storming a fortress... it can be done, but you bleed and bleed. the operation would go far into 46, perhaps 47.

On positive note, USSR can get Manchuria and continental possesions of Japan in China (thus having greater influence in there in post-war era, with Korea being perhaps completely pro-comunnist), but speaking in terms of full scale invasion it has no means to do it. Russia pacific fleet was not uptodate, not speaking of landing and amphinious equipment which would be needed. I think Russia after conquering continental japan will be happy to wait until US blends dry.

 

[Cherico]

we would have fire bombed and droped posion gas on every japanese
posistion possible. It would have been bloody and millions upon millions
of japanese people would have died. The result would have been that
japan probally wouldent have recovered untill present day at least.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33680
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=39757

Some links to check out about the last time we had this discussion.

 

[NapoleonXIV]

I think the Japanese would have surrendered fairly quickly. This idea that even the civilian children were all slavering to die for the Emperor is so much hogwash. Most civilians who committed suicide did so because they were told that the Americans would torture them if they were caught.

In any case the Emperor would have surrendered too. If anyone did not want to be caught by the Russians it was him.

Also, I have read that, despite the guarantees, Hirohito personally offered MacArthur permission to hang him if he thought that would mollify the American people and avoid reprisals against the Japanese. MacArthur, of course, declined with grace. Is this story true?

 

[Markus]

First: Effective blockade by subs combined with CV and BB raids. After that Japan might surrender as a result of the soviet offensive into Manchuria and Korea. The US has the option to simply bypass the well defended Kyushu and go straight to the poorly defended Honshu(=Tokyo). The very pessimistic assumptions about US casualties are the worst case figures for an invasion of Kyushu.

 

[Nicole]

I think the Japanese would have surrendered fairly quickly. This idea that even the civilian children were all slavering to die for the Emperor is so much hogwash. Most civilians who committed suicide did so because they were told that the Americans would torture them if they were caught.

In any case the Emperor would have surrendered too. If anyone did not want to be caught by the Russians it was him.

I have to agree here... the myth that the Japanese would never, ever, ever, surrender in WW2 is an odd one, considering that they did in OTL... a massive successful landing of troops on the islands alone (remember, many generals still believed in a myth that any attempts at landing on the Home Islands would be blown away by holy winds) would really scare Hirohito as much as the vaporization of cities by the atomic bomb did.

 

[CalBear]

in the first day of the invasion it was projected that 31,000 Americans and 70,000 Japanese would die. All Japanese were trained to kill for their emperor and even the small children were trained to strap bombs to their chest and blow up tanks. Unless the emperor of Japan steps in and surrenders, like he did after the atomic bombings, the people of Japan would all perish.

Something of an overstatement. MANY, perhaps even a majority, of the Japanese MALE population would have put up stiff resistance, even if all they had were spears or clubs (much like was seen in Russia, Yugoslavia & especially, Germany), but the entire Japanese PEOPLE? Hardly. The propaganda writers (for BOTH sides) painted the picture of every Japanese old enough to walk rushing the beachhead, but reality is somewhat different.

One need to remember that the Japanese population had virtually no transportation except walking or some bicycles. Fuel was gone, what little that was left was reserved for kamikaze (aircraft & boat) units and IJA regular forces. This alone means that the number of Japanese civilians who could have engaged either Olympic or Coronet ground forces would be fairly small. The rest, even if willing, would be unable to reach the battlefield. Those within walking distance would be subject to brutal air attack from fighter bombers by day, and nightfighters (both from the carriers, and from the late to the game, but very well designed P-61) looking for targets of opprotunity at the end of their patrols. Secondly, and more importantly, the average Japanese civilian was starving to death; they simply did not have the strength to trek long distances.

Civilians outside of the zones to be occupied, mainly the southern third of Kuyshu, and the Kanto plain on Honshu, would have been unable to engage Allied forces, even if they wanted to die in action.

Without the Atom bombs figures at least an additional half million Japanese deaths, possibly many more, mostly from starvation, with the continued firebombing claiming its share. As pointed out in one of the may threads we have on this subject, by October 1945, the Eight Air Force would have been fully in place after refit and transfer from Europe. Operating from Okinawa, this would have allowed the USAAF to increase mission tempo to a city a night (up from the three a week that the XXth was handling with B-29's). It would also have provided an enormous increase in fighter bombers, especially the P-47, which had demonstrated particular lethality in the Jager role while in the ETO. The Jagerbombers would have been highly effective in clearing out the hidden kamikaze and suicide boat forces that the IJA & IJN had squirelled away in anticipation of the invasions.

When one factors in the typhoon that occurred IOTL in the exact piece of ocean where the Olympic force was supposed to marshal, it is an open question if any Allied invasion would have happened before early 1946. If that delay came to pass, Japan would, in all likelyhood, have collapsed from the combination of starvation (both from the blockade, which, with the arrival of the massive USN into home waters was airtight, and, as was the case in 1945 Germany, destruction of what little food was being produced domestically by Jagers, a primary target for which would have been food production and transport, all the way down to ox carts) and endless pounding of anything remotely resembling a town from the air by a bomber force so large that beggars the imagination.

 

[Max Sinister]

Maybe the belief that the Japanese would fight even fiercer than the Waffen-SS came from the fact that kamikaze fighters indeed existed, and from those Japanese soldiers who continued to fight the war on obscure Pacific islands even decades after the war ended.

 

[rudebadger]

The Jagerbombers would have been highly effective in clearing out the hidden kamikaze and suicide boat forces that the IJA & IJN had squirelled away in anticipation of the invasions.

The Americans had no idea of the extent of the Japanese kamikaze forces assembled until after the Occupation of Japan. Even after Coronet commenced, any of these attacks would have been expected by the Americans following Okinawa and it would have taken some time before they realized what kind of threat they were facing.

 

[CalBear]

The Americans had no idea of the extent of the Japanese kamikaze forces assembled until after the Occupation of Japan. Even after Coronet commenced, any of these attacks would have been expected by the Americans following Okinawa and it would have taken some time before they realized what kind of threat they were facing.

The Japanese had roughly 10,000 aircraft held as Kamakazi platforms (including trainers and other light aircraft). In July of 1945 the USN estimated that the Japanese might have, including trainers and light aircraft, 10,800 Kamakazi platforms available (this figure is available from numerous sources, the easiest to find being Wiki). This was a remarkably good estimate, given the limitations of the Intel available (USAAF figures were in the 5,000-6,000 range, mostly because they didn't include light aircraft, like observation planes, in their total). There was an under estimation, by nearly 50% as to the number of suicide BOATS that the IJN & IJA had available, but this would not have mattered as much as one might think, simply due to the nature of Jager operations.

Jabo missions were flown, in many cases, simply to find whatever was worth shooting up. The entire point was to find targets of opprotunity, if they ran across a defended position (opposed to a unprotected train or troop column), they would call in reinforcement, or, in the rare case that they found something worth the effort, 8th AF command would arrange for a bomber mission. The Japanese had concealed their boats and airfields against high altitude observation, it is very much a different matter to hide from P-47's or Corsairs flying at a couple thousand feet more or less daring some fool to take a shot at them.

edit: BTW: The Japanese had decided to throw everything they had at the Kyushu landings, leaving almost nothing in reserve for future operations. They were gambling that they could inflict sufficient losses against the Olympic force that the U.S. would accept an offer of surrender with terms (or, in some of more extreme cases, just accept the Status Quo and leave Japan undefeated). Coronet, had it been necessary, would have faced fairly light opposition.

 

[Markus]

MANY, perhaps even a majority, of the Japanese MALE population would have put up stiff resistance, even if all they had were spears or clubs (much like was seen in Russia, Yugoslavia & especially, Germany),

Err, what? When did a part of the civilian german population put up resistance to allied troops? All they put up in 45 were white flags, but of these many. Hell, even the Army was falling apart in 45.

 

[Kang Seung Jae]

I think the Japanese would have surrendered fairly quickly. This idea that even the civilian children were all slavering to die for the Emperor is so much hogwash. Most civilians who committed suicide did so because they were told that the Americans would torture them if they were caught.

Which pretty much shows how you need to live in the era to know what the people would do.

Yes, most of the Japanese WOULD have fought to the death, as long as Showa supported the war.

That was the key here: for all that Bushido BS, it was the Tenno that kept Japan going on. If he wanted to continue, then the nation would have gone with him.

That was why the Japanese completely surrendered after the address in August 15. Th will of the Tenno was the will of the people, and that would not be broken until MacArther came along.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

That was the key here: for all that Bushido BS, it was the Tenno that kept Japan going on. If he wanted to continue, then the nation would have gone with him.

That was why the Japanese completely surrendered after the address in August 15. Th will of the Tenno was the will of the people, and that would not be broken until MacArther came along.

Too bad you were just banned. Completely agree with you here, if not in that other thread. It's why I suggested the coup attempt succeed as a POD if you want to keep the war going, nukes or no nukes.