Just how fanatical were the Imperial Japanese/how aggressive were the Allies?

1. If the nuclear bomb had been developed earlier, would the Allies have used it on a Japanese army during combat? Or would they have waited until they could use it on a city in the Home Islands?

2. If the nuclear bomb had taken longer to develop, but the U.S. were already knocking on their door as in OTL (having surrounded the Home Islands and taken out their Pacific and SE possessions), and were just continuously firebombing their cities, would the Japanese high command actually surrender eventually? Or would they dig in until their population had starved to death? And why would any Japanese have been so worshipful of their emperor and his gov't to allow them to do that?

3. Are certain Changing the Time's WWII AHs just a little bit exaggerating when they have virtually the entire Japanese population wiped out from starvation and diseases due to U.S. continual blockade?
 
Respect to 2 it had been possible a civil war for example between Hiro-Hito and the generals that saw clearly the inutility of the fight and the more fanatical die-hard generals and the prince Takamatsu that had the intention to obligate to abdicate to Hiro-Hito and bring to the power some child of imperial blood (like the prince Kitashirakawa).
It had been very sad while the japanese people suffers under the bombs a civil war begins between the faction that want surrender and the die-hards.
 
Strategos' Risk said:
1. If the nuclear bomb had been developed earlier, would the Allies have used it on a Japanese army during combat? Or would they have waited until they could use it on a city in the Home Islands?

2. If the nuclear bomb had taken longer to develop, but the U.S. were already knocking on their door as in OTL (having surrounded the Home Islands and taken out their Pacific and SE possessions), and were just continuously firebombing their cities, would the Japanese high command actually surrender eventually? Or would they dig in until their population had starved to death? And why would any Japanese have been so worshipful of their emperor and his gov't to allow them to do that?

3. Are certain Changing the Time's WWII AHs just a little bit exaggerating when they have virtually the entire Japanese population wiped out from starvation and diseases due to U.S. continual blockade?

1. I'm inclined to believe in a demonstration on Iwo Jima. In OTL, American leaders seriously considered using poison gas on the island, rather than suffer the enormous number of casualties needed to clear it. In the end, it was decided that breaking the taboo wasn't worth it, and it might come back to bite them in the end.

2 and 3. Everyone surrenders. If you don't invade, eventually Japan's going to reach a point where the command structure fragments. Whether from starvation, a loss of the will to fight, or whatever, some Japanese will surrender their commands. A beaten Japanese leadership, no matter how much it might want to fight on, cannot fight on if subordinates surrender and no one has the will to fight. In OTL, Japan was on the verge of mass starvation at the time of the surrender. Famine was only averted by food shipments from the United States, and indeed famine and starvation did kill 10-20 million people in Korea, which did not recieve aid in time. With a continued blockade of the Home Islands, and perhaps the use of defoliants against the Japanese rice crop, tens of millions will die of starvation.

Eventually, this will lead to a collapse of Japanese society to the point that Allied forces won't have to invade... they'll have to simply walk ashore, as they did in OTL. Now, when the will to fight will be outweighed by the desire to live is a question I don't know enough to answer. Chances are that you'll eventually see a civil war develop in Japan, if an attempt is made to fight on. In OTL, a coup attempt was made after the Emperor announced his intention to surrender. The coup was only foiled when power was cut to Tokyo during an American air raid, thus hampering their communications and movement enough to allow counter-coup members to succeed. I'll detail a scenario in my next post.
 
http://yarchive.net/mil/japanese_surrender.html

Let's say this coup attempt succeeds. POD is the night of August 14, 1945. Prime Minister General Anami does not commit Seppuku upon hearing the news of the Emperor's willingness to surrender. On the 15th, backed by the young, hawkish officers of the Japanese Army, Anami leads forces against the doves. Prime Minister, Admiral Suzuki is killed, and his house burned to the ground. His death is blamed on American bombing. The Imperial palace is stormed, and the commander of the Imperial Guard killed. The Emperor is prevented from broadcasting his message of surrender, and is placed under house arrest, eventually being moved to a series of artificial caverns north of Tokyo.

As a result, a purge of officers seeking surrender takes place. Thousands of officers are killed, with young, hawkish officers taking their place. They're inexperienced and brash, but they are dedicated to fighting on. The United States, through sources in Tokyo, hears of the collapse of surrender talks. The war goes on, with another massive firebombing raid on Tokyo. On the 19th, the third atomic bomb is dropped on Kokura. This attack depletes the stockpile on Tinian, and further weapons will be dropped as they come off the production line.

In Japan, the hawks remain unbowed. Anami is the de-facto ruler of Japan at this point, with his young hawks serving as an unofficial secret police, serving as judge, jury, and executioner for anyone suspected of defeatism. Many moderates are scared into toeing the official line by these young hawks. Those who do not are killed. Meanwhile, preparations for the anticipated American invasion continue to build. Massive numbers of bomb-proof caverns continue to be dug into solid rock in the mountains of Kyushu and Honshu. The lack of gasoline and the strafing of any vehicle on the roads leads to these caverns largely being dug by hand, using hundreds of thousands of refugees as manpower. Allied POWs are also utilized in great numbers.

American preparations for the invasion of Kyushu, codenamed operation Olympic, and scheduled for December 1, continue. American fighter aircraft, based on Okinawa, are now able to roam at will over southern Kyushu. Japanese aircraft, crippled by the lack of fuel, are kept in reserve for the inevitable invasion. Armed with a single tank of fuel, the 4,500 hidden Japanese aircraft will serve largely as Kamikazies, as this is the best use for their untrained pilots. On August 26, the fourth atomic bomb is dropped on Niigata. Further drops are cancelled, as the five bombs that will be available by November 1 will be used on Japanese military targets in Kyushu.

In the meantime, however, General LeMay, commander of American strategic bombing forces in the Pacific, orders an acceleration of Operation Starvation, including the use of defoliants, and a shift in targets, from mass firebombing to targeting every bit of Japan's transportation infrastructure. Ten percent of Bomber Command's sorties consist of minelaying, and with the added damage to the Japanese transportation structure, the economy is at a standstill. On Kyushu, the 600,000 men assigned to defend the island are completely without supplies. The troops are forced to scavenge for food and building materials, forcing thousands of Japanese civilians into the status of refugees.

On Honshu, defoliants prove successful against the rice crop, killing thousands of tons of plants. What food there is cannot be transported to the cities, and hundreds of thousands of civilians flee the burning cities, picking the countryside bare. Society collapses. The military is the only functioning section of Japanese society, and even that begins to break down. Mutinies are popping up all over the place, not so much about surrender or fighting on, but of mere survival. Fighting breaks out over food stockpiles, with Army soldiers firing on civilians that try to raid Army supplies. In Asia, Stalin's forces advance ever deeper into Manchuria, brushing aside the remnants of the collapsed Kwangtung Army and advancing into Korea and towards Peking. Many Japanese are now praying for an American invasion to end it all. By October 15, over 750,000 Japanese have been killed in American air raids, 10 million made homeless, and the toll is rising rapidly.

On October 26, disaster strikes the American forces preparing for invasion. A typhoon hits Okinawa with 145-mph winds. Thousands of tons of shipping are destroyed, as are 250 aircraft, and 867 men are killed. Officials push back the date of invasion to January 15, as the destroyed shipping and supplies need to be replaced. The extra time will also allow more divisions to redeploy from Europe, and the blockade to bite deeper, weakening the Japanese.

(Continued)
 
In the wake of the typhoon, the American bombardment of Japan, and southern Kyushu in particular, becomes even more intense. An abortive Japanese attempt to capitalize on the destruction of the typhoon by sending Kamikaze squadrons to attack Okinawa is beaten back with heavy losses on the Japanese side. The Japanese pilots are barely capable of flying their aircraft, let alone fighting them. A leaflet campaign is begun against Japan as political pressure to end the war mounts in the United States. The leaflets include the notes from and to the Japanese government prior to the coup, agreeing to a surrender. The leaflet campaign does have some success in isolated portions of the former Japanese empire. Bypassed, starving, and alone, many Japanese island garrisons ignored in the island-hopping campaign begin to surrender. The emaciated survivors are transported to the United States.

On December 24, Christmas Eve Day, American papers report the surrender of Japanese-held Formosa. An intensive air and submarine campaign, coupled with overtures to the Japanese commander of the island, begun after the typhoon of October 26, has borne fruit. Buried on page 2 is the fact that Soviet troops have captured Japanese-held Pusan, at the tip of the Korean peninsula. On January 1, the United States opens the bombardment campaign of southern Kyushu. Seven nuclear weapons are detonated, (two more having been manufactured in the month since the original invasion date) killing an estimated 250,000 Japanese soldiers and civilians. Civilian casualties are higher, as there are more of them, and the troops tended to be dug in. Also on January 1, landings were made on the offshore islands of Tanegashima, Yakushima, and the Koshiki Retto.

The ferocity of the atomic bombing shocks every Japanese not a die-hard hawk to the core. Massive rebellions erupt on all the Japanese Home Islands. The Japanese Army, leaderless after the death of Gen. Anami on Jan. 4 in a rebel attack, is powerless to stop many of these widespread rebellions. Their transportation destroyed, hampered at every turn by American airpower, and decimated by disease, desertion, and despiration, the Japanese Army nears collapse. In scattered actions and separate movements, individual Japanese units, ranging in strength from company to division level, begin broadcasting their surrender. Reluctant to accept a surrender without an official leader, American forces make a tentative landing at the site of one of the largest groups wanting surrender, on the island of Shikoku.

Originally intended as a diversion to the main landing on the island of Kyushu, the Shikoku landing is expanded, as many of the offers of surrender prove genuine. Some die-hards broadcast false surrenders in an effort to kill American soldiers, but these are few and far between. The emaciated Japanese still alive on Shikoku largely seem willing to give up peacefully. The island, isolated by American airpower and naval units, is overrun in three weeks.

On January 15, the anticlimactic invasion of southern Kyushu takes place. Though more Japanese fight than on Shikoku, their numbers are proportionally less, due to the massive nuclear bombardment of the island. The American forces take fewer than 10,000 casualties in their occupation of southern Kyushu. They are held up from occupying the whole island, not by Japanese resistance, but by the total destruction of the transportation infrastructure.

The piecemeal surrenders continue, and American forces begin to redeploy as quickly as possible for an invasion of Honshu. On January 28, the first American division hits the shore near Tokyo Bay. Originally intended as a reserve division for the Olympic landings, it was diverted northward as the collapse of Japan became apparent. The division rapidly expands its beachead, and reinforcements, in the form of two more divisions, land. The ashy ruins of Tokyo are taken on February 1. Though there is no organized resistance, a few Japanese in every town still fight on. American soldiers must spread throughout the country, a task made nearly impossible by the complete destruction of the Japanese road and rail system. It is actually quicker for a unit to sail from Tokyo all the way around Japan, to land on the western coast, than it is to drive across the country.

Stalin, seeing an opportunity, was eager to make a landing on Hokkaido, but lacked the logistics and manpower to do so. On March 4, Soviet forces finally set foot on Hokkaido, rapidly overrunning an island almost devoid of Japanese troops and in far better shape than the heavily-bombed Honshu. By April 27, the entire island is under Soviet control. Stalin begins moving industrial equipment from Hokkaido to the Soviet Union, as he did in Germany. Without a concrete plan for the division of Japan, Stalin is eager to claim as much as he can, and Soviet forces move into Honshu on May 10.

By July 4, Harry Truman is able to announce the end of major combat operations. There is no V-J Day, however, as 50,000 American servicemen will remain in Japan for the forceeable future on occupation duty, hunting down pockets of diehard resistance. The United States and the Soviet Union come to terms in an occupation agreement for Japan. Eventually, the People's Republic of Hokkaido will come to be mentioned in the same breath as Romania, and the Berlin Blockade countered with one of Tokyo.

But that's in the future. The death toll in this Japan is astronomical. Nearly 2 million Japanese have been killed in American air raids and in the invasion (OTL 500,000 estimated). 10 million more have died of starvation. An aid plan was set into place from the United States, but the continued resistance of the Japanese Army over OTL didn't allow food to arrive before the lack of the spring rice harvest really hurt. Japan isn't going to be economic powerhouse of the 1980s. Divided in the Cold War, occupied by Western forces, and decimated by starvation, it's going to be a long time recovering.
 

Gremlin

Banned
Nice!!!

So without a formal surrender of Japanese forces can we expect some insurgency and a possible revanchism coming?
 
Amerigo Vespucci said:
Famine was only averted by food shipments from the United States, and indeed famine and starvation did kill 10-20 million people in Korea, which did not recieve aid in time.

10-20 million? Where did you get this number from? The Japanese committed enough atrocities in Korea, and I can easily imagine that there's been a famine, but 10-20 millions? That'd be a fourth of all WW2 deaths worldwide...
 
How to explain the 10-20 million? Most deaths would be of the old and young. Radiation poisoning has occurred across the entire island chain. It's gotten into the ground water, been absorbed by the plants and settled all over the cities. Remember, those bombs, while relatively small, are rather dirty, and a lot have been detonated. The defoliants are still present, so crop levels are going to be very low for several years. Animal herds have gone, and there were never many in japan anyway.

With extremely low food supplies, deliberate starvation on the Soviet occupied islands, if not the allied accupied zone, and a very high radiation count, I can see those figures being achieved, not quite so quickly, but give it 5 years? Yes.

Of course, now there's also the Soviet and allied militaries begining to come down with nasty stuff from teh high radiation counts. It night be that pretty soon the only way to get people to stay there will be at gun point.
 
Max Sinister said:
10-20 million? Where did you get this number from? The Japanese committed enough atrocities in Korea, and I can easily imagine that there's been a famine, but 10-20 millions? That'd be a fourth of all WW2 deaths worldwide...

Famine deaths are never included in war casualty numbers, because it's so difficult to tell how many people died, and whether the war was directly responsible for the famine.
 
10-20 million is still extremely high however, given they were only about 30~ million or so in Korea at the time. Such a death toll in the space of a few years would have depopulated the country to the point of collapse. I suspect the figure is closer to 3-5 million, still fairly significant but a more realistic 10-15% rather than 50%+.

Now I guess such a figure could be reached in Japan. Japan after all is alot more reliant on food imports from Korea/Manchuria etc. With a significantly larger population the same 10-15% figure would give you 7-12~ million dead. This could probably be easilly doubled if the USA/Japanese government takes steps to requisition food/destroy food production etc.
 

CalBear

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Once you reach a tipping point with food supplies, people begin to die like flies. You go from some deaths, normally from secondary causes, to a mass die off. In the modern world, aid almost always reaches famine sites in time so the numbers seem fantastic. It is instructive to note that the Chinese famine of 1958-61 killed in excess of 30 million people, starting from a base that was, while not swimming in food, was far better off than the average Japanese citizen in mid 1945.

While the number given in the POD may be toward the high side of the probabilty range, given the start point, the impacts of Radiation, utter destruction of the transportation network, effective attacks against the food supply (which, BTW, could easily be considered a Crime against Humanity as it is a deliberate attack against non-combattants), and an additional seven months of starvation conditions on an Island Group that was already suffering deaths from starvation, the number is not out of line. Many of the dead would die AFTER the surrender, even as food was made available, an especially nasty effect of starvation that was best demonstrated amongst Holocaust victims post liberation. You also need to factor in the killing of the very old & very young (infant females in particular) by family members pushed to the brink by lack of food.

I do have a couple of quibbles (as I always do:p ):

How does a Tokyo blockade occur? The United States would have absolute control of the Sea Lanes & of the air. The POD indicates that Hokkaido was taken by the Soviets. Control of that island would not allow for any trpe of blockade of Honshu.

Second quibble: Hokkaido would have been defended. The Japanese had a near pathological fear of Soviet invasion. The Red Army would have been hard pressed to mount anything approaching an effective invasion, even if the United States expressed no objections. If Truman had expressed objections, and he almost certainly would have, the Soviets are checked. Stalin would not have found the calcluation to his advantage (possible war with a much more agressive U.S. (11 NUKES:eek: ) than the one IOTL vs. Hokkaido, a conquest that would easy to cut off through air & sea blockade and recapture) much as he found the expansion of the Berlin Blockade into a direct military attack likely to lead to an unsatisfactory conclusion.

Overall, a very interesting read.
 
In OTL, the Soviets were able to take the Kurils in the single month available to them. Hokkaido was virtually undefended in OTL, as the Japanese rushed available forces southward before the American bombardment began to bite. Once the forces in the south, it becomes physically impossible to counter the Soviet threat due to the collapse of the transportation infrastructure. The inability to move forces, coupled with a small-scale civil war, is going to set the groundwork for the Soviet invasion. They don't need to work that hard to land troops. All they need is a small-scale freighter operation from Vladivostok to get it to work. Their main threat is going to be the profusion of American mines.

As for your first question, I'm not sure what you're asking. The Home Islands are completely cut off from supply. By the time the Soviets come ashore, we've already reached the famine tipping point. By the time the United States can begin moving food to the islands in large quantities, say mid-May, the damage is going to be done.

Incidentally, I think you all are exaggerating the damage done by radiation here. For all the primitiveness of the nuclear weapons used, they're all airburst weapons, which will minimize persistant radiation. Fallout isn't a factor. Remember, over a hundred weapons were detonated in OTL in testing. By the time American forces reach the irradiated areas (2 weeks in the case of the southern Kyushu bombs, and 6 months in the case of the Honshu bombs), radiation levels will have died down enough that the only effects among American forces will be minor incidences of cancer later on down the line, really a statistical blip.

The defoliants used at this time are naturally not as effective as those in OTL's Vietnam. Still, the fact that they're being targeted at edible crops is going to hurt the Japanese almost as bad as the Vietnamese were in OTL, in terms of genetic damage. I actually think you're going to see longer-lasting effects from the defoliants than from any radiation.
 

CalBear

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Amerigo Vespucci said:
In OTL, the Soviets were able to take the Kurils in the single month available to them. Hokkaido was virtually undefended in OTL, as the Japanese rushed available forces southward before the American bombardment began to bite. Once the forces in the south, it becomes physically impossible to counter the Soviet threat due to the collapse of the transportation infrastructure. The inability to move forces, coupled with a small-scale civil war, is going to set the groundwork for the Soviet invasion. They don't need to work that hard to land troops. All they need is a small-scale freighter operation from Vladivostok to get it to work. Their main threat is going to be the profusion of American mines.

I again have to mention the fact that Truman was not FDR, and he was determined to prevent further Soviet expansion. There is a legend regarding a discussion between Stalin & Truman on this very subject; according to the story Truman told Stalin that any attempt to seize Hokkaido would be answered with "an atomic bomb being dropped down the Kremlin's chimney". This almost certainly an overstatement of any conversation, it does, however, accurately portray Truman's feeling on the matter.

Amerigo Vespucci said:
As for your first question, I'm not sure what you're asking. The Home Islands are completely cut off from supply. By the time the Soviets come ashore, we've already reached the famine tipping point. By the time the United States can begin moving food to the islands in large quantities, say mid-May, the damage is going to be done.

You mention the Berlin Blockade in the same phrase as Tokyo. I assumed that you were indicating a Soviet blockade of supplies into Tokyo.

Amerigo Vespucci said:
Incidentally, I think you all are exaggerating the damage done by radiation here. For all the primitiveness of the nuclear weapons used, they're all airburst weapons, which will minimize persistant radiation. Fallout isn't a factor. Remember, over a hundred weapons were detonated in OTL in testing. By the time American forces reach the irradiated areas (2 weeks in the case of the southern Kyushu bombs, and 6 months in the case of the Honshu bombs), radiation levels will have died down enough that the only effects among American forces will be minor incidences of cancer later on down the line, really a statistical blip.

Would Atom bombs directed against defensive works be 5,000 ft airbursts? If destruction of the hard point were the goal, a ground burst or a much lower air burst (500 ft?) would be logical.

Amerigo Vespucci said:
The defoliants used at this time are naturally not as effective as those in OTL's Vietnam. Still, the fact that they're being targeted at edible crops is going to hurt the Japanese almost as bad as the Vietnamese were in OTL, in terms of genetic damage. I actually think you're going to see longer-lasting effects from the defoliants than from any radiation.

Probably worse than in Viet Nam, since more agent would be required & the arable land is even closer to population centers.

As I said earlier, a very interesting POD.
 
CalBear said:
I again have to mention the fact that Truman was not FDR, and he was determined to prevent further Soviet expansion. There is a legend regarding a discussion between Stalin & Truman on this very subject; according to the story Truman told Stalin that any attempt to seize Hokkaido would be answered with "an atomic bomb being dropped down the Kremlin's chimney". This almost certainly an overstatement of any conversation, it does, however, accurately portray Truman's feeling on the matter.

Regardless of how Truman feels, there's going to be enormous political pressure to bring the war to a successful end without many casualties. There's going to be a movement to allow the Soviets to be the ones to take some of those casualties, rather than spending American lives to get the last of the Japanese. I agree with you that Truman is going to be fervently against any Soviet expansion, but I feel that popular opinion is going to be against him on this one. Without Nazi Germany as a threat, a lot more anti-war people are going to come out, particularly with Japan penned up in the Home Islands.

You mention the Berlin Blockade in the same phrase as Tokyo. I assumed that you were indicating a Soviet blockade of supplies into Tokyo.

I'm thinking more and more that there's going to be a need for a final summit meeting. In that mention, I was talking about the possibility of a counter-blockade of the Soviet sector in Tokyo, in response to the Soviet blockade of Berlin. But in order to get a Soviet Sector, we need to have a summit meeting, because there's no way Truman's going to give it up without one. Let's say Stalin sees the popular movement building in the United States to end the war, and calls Truman's bluff about the bombing. Stalin announces that he'll be invading Hokkaido. In order to ensure that's as far as Stalin goes, Truman offers a Soviet Sector in Tokyo. Knowing that's as good a deal as he's going to get, Stalin accepts.

Would Atom bombs directed against defensive works be 5,000 ft airbursts? If destruction of the hard point were the goal, a ground burst or a much lower air burst (500 ft?) would be logical.

You have to remember that these aren't hardened targets. They're not concrete bunkers buried deep underground. As a matter of fact, most aren't even concrete, since there's almost none left in Japan. Airbursts will do just fine against exposed troops and ones in earthen entrenchments. Unfortunately for the United States, without testing that shows damage falls off dramatically for dug-in troops, most of the deaths are going to be from civilian refugees.
 
Narratio said:
How to explain the 10-20 million? Most deaths would be of the old and young. Radiation poisoning has occurred across the entire island chain. It's gotten into the ground water, been absorbed by the plants and settled all over the cities. Remember, those bombs, while relatively small, are rather dirty, and a lot have been detonated. The defoliants are still present, so crop levels are going to be very low for several years. Animal herds have gone, and there were never many in japan anyway.

With extremely low food supplies, deliberate starvation on the Soviet occupied islands, if not the allied accupied zone, and a very high radiation count, I can see those figures being achieved, not quite so quickly, but give it 5 years? Yes.

Of course, now there's also the Soviet and allied militaries begining to come down with nasty stuff from teh high radiation counts. It night be that pretty soon the only way to get people to stay there will be at gun point.

Narratio

Max was actually questioning the 10-20 million starvation deaths you were saying occurred in OTL in Korea, which I also think is far too high. I could see that level of death in Japan under this scenario.

Steve
 
Amerigo Vespucci said:
Regardless of how Truman feels, there's going to be enormous political pressure to bring the war to a successful end without many casualties. There's going to be a movement to allow the Soviets to be the ones to take some of those casualties, rather than spending American lives to get the last of the Japanese. I agree with you that Truman is going to be fervently against any Soviet expansion, but I feel that popular opinion is going to be against him on this one. Without Nazi Germany as a threat, a lot more anti-war people are going to come out, particularly with Japan penned up in the Home Islands.



I'm thinking more and more that there's going to be a need for a final summit meeting. In that mention, I was talking about the possibility of a counter-blockade of the Soviet sector in Tokyo, in response to the Soviet blockade of Berlin. But in order to get a Soviet Sector, we need to have a summit meeting, because there's no way Truman's going to give it up without one. Let's say Stalin sees the popular movement building in the United States to end the war, and calls Truman's bluff about the bombing. Stalin announces that he'll be invading Hokkaido. In order to ensure that's as far as Stalin goes, Truman offers a Soviet Sector in Tokyo. Knowing that's as good a deal as he's going to get, Stalin accepts.



You have to remember that these aren't hardened targets. They're not concrete bunkers buried deep underground. As a matter of fact, most aren't even concrete, since there's almost none left in Japan. Airbursts will do just fine against exposed troops and ones in earthen entrenchments. Unfortunately for the United States, without testing that shows damage falls off dramatically for dug-in troops, most of the deaths are going to be from civilian refugees.

A question and a point:

a) Would Truman not seek to prevent a Soviet occupation of all Korea, if he delayed an invasion of Japan by occupying at least southern Korea himself? This would also give a supply and nearby air base for tightening the pressure on Japan.

b) I remember seeing in one discussion that after the initial atomic bomb attacks, if the Japanese continued to resist, further bombs would be held back for use in supporting the invasion. This would involve low level bursts shortly before the landings to destroy defences and reduce US casualties.:eek: [Don't forget that at this time no one knew about fallout!]

Steve
 
stevep said:
A question and a point:

a) Would Truman not seek to prevent a Soviet occupation of all Korea, if he delayed an invasion of Japan by occupying at least southern Korea himself? This would also give a supply and nearby air base for tightening the pressure on Japan.

I'm sure he would if he could, but the war isn't against Korea, it's against Japan. You've already got Okinawa, and the time needed to invade, capture, build up, and supply any bases in Korea would push be all out of proportion to the help they'd give to the invasion.

I remember seeing in one discussion that after the initial atomic bomb attacks, if the Japanese continued to resist, further bombs would be held back for use in supporting the invasion. This would involve low level bursts shortly before the landings to destroy defences and reduce US casualties.:eek: [Don't forget that at this time no one knew about fallout!]

I agree, which is why I suggest that only the first four atomic weapons will be used on Japanese cities. The next seven will be used on Kyushu in preparation for the landings. The third was already on Tinian, and the fourth was en route when surrender negotiations began. I hypothesize that American planners, after seeing that the number of beach defenses has leveled off (there simply isn't the steel and concrete to build anymore) will use atomic weapons on troop concentrations, divisional headquarters, and the like, rather than directly on the beach. The additional time granted by the typhoon is going to have some interesting effects. It gives more time for intelligence analysists to discover the Japanese divisions that went undiscovered until after OTL's surrender. With more troops being discovered, this adds weight to the plan to use the weapons directly on troop concentrations, rather than on the beach.

With four weapons being used, thus providing more data for research, and additional time for scientists' concerns about radiation to percolate upwards, I believe I was justified to put the nuclear bombardment 2 weeks prior to X-Day, rather than 3-Days before, as was the plan had the invasion gone forward on Dec. 1.
 
Amerigo Vespucci said:
I'm sure he would if he could, but the war isn't against Korea, it's against Japan. You've already got Okinawa, and the time needed to invade, capture, build up, and supply any bases in Korea would push be all out of proportion to the help they'd give to the invasion.

The war isn't against Korea but if he's worried about Russia and the decision has been taken not to invade Japan then it is a political option.

Steve
 
Though the original post is about not invading Japan, in the TL I'm putting forward, it's always scheduled. Japan simply collapses before the scheduled invasion can be made, and the invasion forces are siphoned off to landings across Japan, rather than simply in southern Kyushu. The Olympic landings are still made, albeit scaled down in size, as many of the troops have since been deployed to Shikoku. The reserve divisions intended for the invasion of Kyushu are instead directed to Honshu, and are eventually reinforced by combat divisions pulled out of Kyushu or redeployed direct from Europe. There simply isn't time to plan and execute an invasion of Korea without weakening the Japanese invasion force, which, until mid-January, is still anticipated to be needed.
 
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