The German Navy in a Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter cjc
- Start date
Riain
Banned
Personally I think that the KLM would have to do much more if Germany is going to win WW1. For the KLM to do more something needs to be do be done about the horrifying command structure.
In my case the KLM is undefeated so will work on the problems that the war illustrated in a generally conventional force structure. They won't do anything strange like ditch the battle fleet for uboats.
In my case the KLM is undefeated so will work on the problems that the war illustrated in a generally conventional force structure. They won't do anything strange like ditch the battle fleet for uboats.
Depends greatly how Germany has won. If it was a long war the last thing they will have money for is the navy. Especially as like in OTL it proved pretty useless during the war. Doubly so if the colonies are gone (no USA entry, France and Russia beaten and a negotiated peace with the british).
Bear in mind it's entirely possible for the HSF to be on the bottom of the Skagerrak and still to see the defeat of France and Russia.
Additionally there's no real way for Germany to pressure Japan into giving back Tsingtao or the OTL Mandates unless it wants to build a brand new fleet - the current classes are not designed for long deployments.
With a proper CP victory, Japan may not be conducting its OTL withdrawal from Siberia. Not quite sure where that's going
If ur-Jutland is indeed the afternoon in which Jellicoe lost the war, then Francafrique might well become part of Mittelafrika.
But if the RN remains dominant at sea, all sorts of interesting outcomes are possible. For instance, drawing a parallel with the Paris Commune and the Spartacist Uprising, you might get a postwar leftist revolution in rump France - and if it's successful, then you might get the colonies doing something exciting like ODI or government-in-exile or perfidiously joining Britain (which, financial ruin aside, does have the power projection to guarantee them).
So my guess is that a postwar CP is really strongly continentally-focused and doesn't really want to spend the money on a major navy, as it lacks an overseas empire that demands the navy to secure the imperial revenue.
Additionally there's no real way for Germany to pressure Japan into giving back Tsingtao or the OTL Mandates unless it wants to build a brand new fleet - the current classes are not designed for long deployments.
With a proper CP victory, Japan may not be conducting its OTL withdrawal from Siberia. Not quite sure where that's going
If ur-Jutland is indeed the afternoon in which Jellicoe lost the war, then Francafrique might well become part of Mittelafrika.
But if the RN remains dominant at sea, all sorts of interesting outcomes are possible. For instance, drawing a parallel with the Paris Commune and the Spartacist Uprising, you might get a postwar leftist revolution in rump France - and if it's successful, then you might get the colonies doing something exciting like ODI or government-in-exile or perfidiously joining Britain (which, financial ruin aside, does have the power projection to guarantee them).
So my guess is that a postwar CP is really strongly continentally-focused and doesn't really want to spend the money on a major navy, as it lacks an overseas empire that demands the navy to secure the imperial revenue.
I don't disagree with anything you wrote really. But with it's conclusion.
Nations don't really design their armed forces around what they need. They design them around what they want to have and especially what it's power players want to have. So with the latter in mind, I think you are quite correct that it'll depend a lot on how much or little the HSF achieved.
But nonetheless a Germany that's dominant in Europe, even in a peace deal that effectively traded the German Colonies for Britain and France recognizing East Europe as Germanys playground Germany would simply want a powerful Navy. It's what you needed to have to "count" as a major power. And also given that one of the UKs war aims was getting rid of the HSF, having one would be seen as neccessary to show they wont be pushed around by anyone.
Once could argue that the navy helped win the victory though.
by isolating Russia from trade, through the Baltic, and the Goeben helped bring in the Ottomans.
The fleet in being kept Britain from bringing overwhelming naval force on the Ottomans.
And depending on how victory was won, the German fleet in French Atlantic ports might have been leverage in forcing Britain to make peace even after France was defeated.
And the threat of Germany's large fleet would have been necessary in securing their colonies back from the Japanese after the war was one if they were unwilling to give them back.
Regardless, things like U9s exploits will keep the submarines well funded, and the exploits of the Emden will keep the idea of cruiser war alive. But Tirpitz will argue the risk theory worked.
So look for a handful of really large diesel subs like the u-cruisers of 1918, there will always be some of these built for commerce raiding, but I would think Germany is going to keep building at least 1 big battleship a year indefinitely
by isolating Russia from trade, through the Baltic, and the Goeben helped bring in the Ottomans.
The fleet in being kept Britain from bringing overwhelming naval force on the Ottomans.
And depending on how victory was won, the German fleet in French Atlantic ports might have been leverage in forcing Britain to make peace even after France was defeated.
And the threat of Germany's large fleet would have been necessary in securing their colonies back from the Japanese after the war was one if they were unwilling to give them back.
Regardless, things like U9s exploits will keep the submarines well funded, and the exploits of the Emden will keep the idea of cruiser war alive. But Tirpitz will argue the risk theory worked.
So look for a handful of really large diesel subs like the u-cruisers of 1918, there will always be some of these built for commerce raiding, but I would think Germany is going to keep building at least 1 big battleship a year indefinitely
Riain
Banned
Even if they held Calais during the war and handed it back (Britain would throw colonies at Germany to clear them off) the KM would make a greater contribution to victory than OTL that would ensure it would thrive postwar.
This is a good point. After the Franco Prussian war, the North German Confederation Navy didn't do anything to help win. But the Germans were dismayed that the French were able to import arms from America and raise a bunch of rapid conscript armies after the German defeated the French initial armies. This delayed the victory enough the Britain and others could limit the terms Germany could ask for. Thus the desire for a navy (even a limited navy could have worked since the french conscripted their sailors into the army after the initial defeats).
Here the Germans have to get their colonies back from South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, (even if Britain makes peace these guys don't have to give anything back).
A fleet of 20 or so Dreadnoughts gives Germany the threat it needs. Plus it may have to occupy new colonies it secured from Portugal or whomever.
OR in another scenario 5 or 6 modern light cruisers in Brest assisting uboats might make Britain rethink a Britain fights alone scenario.
I think Germany is likely to get colonies in Africa back in a post war scenario and as a result will have to build a respectable navy to maintain them. Germany would probably do better without these colonies and focus on Europe, but that isn't what they would do.
So most likely in a post world war they would continue to match what the UK is doing to the best of their ability. If they get innovative possibly early development of dedicated flat top aircraft carrier.
Without the colonies they would be smart to focus on smaller mining ships and U boats to secure the vulnerable coast but not waste resources on massive battleships.
So most likely in a post world war they would continue to match what the UK is doing to the best of their ability. If they get innovative possibly early development of dedicated flat top aircraft carrier.
Without the colonies they would be smart to focus on smaller mining ships and U boats to secure the vulnerable coast but not waste resources on massive battleships.
Contrary to what most people believe, before the war, Admiral Tirpitz wanted to increase the size of the German Navy to exact diplomatic concessions out of Britain. He never intended for the German Navy to ever be a match for the Royal Navy. Tirpitz thought a conflict between Britain and Germany would be based in economic rivalry, not naval power. In 1910, the naval arms race with Britain was starting to put a strain on the German economy, which forced Chancellor Bernhard von Bulow to question the need for such expense on the navy. Eventually, he resigned and in 1912, his successor, Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg ordered the German government to shift the focus from the navy to the army in the face of the expansion of Russia's military.
Long story short: There was no way the German Navy was ever going to beat the Royal Navy and it would be impossible to force the British to shrink their Navy, since it (and rightfully so) is seen as a source of national pride. Rule Britannia and all that. The only way Germany can hope to beat the Royal Navy is if they are given more European ports, maybe in occupied Belgium, or in a extreme case, the northern coastline of France.
Had Germany won the war, the German Navy's primary purpose would've been to protect the German homeland and any other German colonial holdings it got out of the war. I can honestly see the German Navy becoming neglected in favour of the German Army and the future German Air Force, with the Navy only being seen as a supplement to both branches, since it would be the Army that won The Great War, not the Navy. The only way I can see it not getting neglected is if it is given the aforementioned European ports, bordering Britain.
Long story short: There was no way the German Navy was ever going to beat the Royal Navy and it would be impossible to force the British to shrink their Navy, since it (and rightfully so) is seen as a source of national pride. Rule Britannia and all that. The only way Germany can hope to beat the Royal Navy is if they are given more European ports, maybe in occupied Belgium, or in a extreme case, the northern coastline of France.
Had Germany won the war, the German Navy's primary purpose would've been to protect the German homeland and any other German colonial holdings it got out of the war. I can honestly see the German Navy becoming neglected in favour of the German Army and the future German Air Force, with the Navy only being seen as a supplement to both branches, since it would be the Army that won The Great War, not the Navy. The only way I can see it not getting neglected is if it is given the aforementioned European ports, bordering Britain.
For Germany to win she has to defeat the RN's Grand Fleet, probably on several occasions to break the blockade. And to break the blockade, she not only has to whittle down the Grand Fleet, she has to start to scrub the oceans of RN cruisers. Against the largest navy in the world, and the incredible British shipbuilding capacity, that is a near-insurmountable task, even if we double the number of German Battlecruisers. The point-of-departure might have to be pre-1900 to give Germany more yards, more building slips and more industrial capacity to be available when the dreadnought revolution takes place.
Edit: Then of course, we would have alter the various Naval Laws....
They were working on converting the liner Ausonia when the war ended. She would have been an Argus-like, flush-decked conversion.
Regards,
Last edited:
@1Big Rich, no I disagree with the notion that Germany, a land based nation, has to crush the RN totaly. As for a German win no USA is very important.
Because in WWI there was a very real, Imo, possibility that the USA stays out and thus the blockade is less effective and the British / Entente are in much more trouble. See the financial and moral situation in 1917 before the entry.
As such, if Germany can bind the RN, as it did in OTL, to a good degree and otherwise harm the merchant fleet then I think the "Trafalgar Mk.2" is not needed. Because if Britian is low on money and several neutral nations in Europe want to buy, then by Money the USA will most likely sell. And because of how the war was going until then, the Germans still had their external values to go to.
So no, the Germans do not need to annihilate the RN, becasue they will not invade. As the British more likely then not will bow out when Russia starts the talks, earlier then OTL, as no USA no hope, and then France or maybe Italy will be next. After that Britian against Europe is not viable Imo.
Because in WWI there was a very real, Imo, possibility that the USA stays out and thus the blockade is less effective and the British / Entente are in much more trouble. See the financial and moral situation in 1917 before the entry.
As such, if Germany can bind the RN, as it did in OTL, to a good degree and otherwise harm the merchant fleet then I think the "Trafalgar Mk.2" is not needed. Because if Britian is low on money and several neutral nations in Europe want to buy, then by Money the USA will most likely sell. And because of how the war was going until then, the Germans still had their external values to go to.
So no, the Germans do not need to annihilate the RN, becasue they will not invade. As the British more likely then not will bow out when Russia starts the talks, earlier then OTL, as no USA no hope, and then France or maybe Italy will be next. After that Britian against Europe is not viable Imo.
Interesting so we may end up with air craft carrier technology 2 to 3 years ahead of otl. Could be interesting ramifications if war resumes between Germany and Great Britain or Japan in the 30s or 40s.
Even in a victory Germany still has many now ex enemy hostile powers she has to deal with other than Britain:
Russia, France, Italy, Japan, Portugal, (maybe even Brazil and/or the USA)
and has weak allies she will feel the need to support:
Ottomans
All the powers were building or buying Dreadnought class ships pre war and we could assume this trend will continue. Germany almost has to build a couple a year to just be the world power she wants to be.
(the only exception would be if this were more of a compromise peace where Germany loses all of her colonies, but picks up bits of the east, and/or parts of a defunct Austrian empire, the perhaps a Baltic navy would work.
Russia, France, Italy, Japan, Portugal, (maybe even Brazil and/or the USA)
and has weak allies she will feel the need to support:
Ottomans
All the powers were building or buying Dreadnought class ships pre war and we could assume this trend will continue. Germany almost has to build a couple a year to just be the world power she wants to be.
(the only exception would be if this were more of a compromise peace where Germany loses all of her colonies, but picks up bits of the east, and/or parts of a defunct Austrian empire, the perhaps a Baltic navy would work.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
I would contest that Germany needs to Break the Blockade to win. Collapsing the lines in 1918 could do it, and a neutral US is probably enough for that, 1 million less troops, lower morale, somewhat worse Entente material condition, somewhat better German (blockade was leaky with US neutral). A neutral Italy makes the blockade near irrelevant, and almost certainly leads to a neutral USA and knock on effects screwing Russia. Then of course there is possible knock on effects of a slightly better performance in 1914, front lines just slightly further less and French war production craters due to lack of coal
I think the blockade was very detrimental to the German war effort and economy. And the longer the war, the worse the damage.
I never said the High Seas Fleet needs to annihilate the RN, but they do need to shrink its numbers if they're going to break the blockade. That doesn't have to happen in a single battle, it can happen over the course of several actions. But the blockade still needs to be broken.
For a large navy on the strategic defensive, a position the RN has occupied since the Napoleonic Wars, cruisers are the vital currency in a commerce war. For the Kaiser's navy to go after those cruisers, the Grand Fleet needs to be whittled down to a point where the High Seas Fleet can cover armored cruisers, light cruisers and battlecruisers going to and from the Atlantic. Again, against the largest navy in the world, this is a massive task. Worse, the longer the war lasts, the more German colonies will be rolled up the British, and the fewer places ships operating outside the north sea will have to go.
Agreed, in my opinion if Germany is going to win, they need to break the blockade. Their Allies are no help, the RN controls access to the Mediterranean. Their only contribution is to tie down naval assets in that basin, and keep them out of the North Atlantic.
My thoughts,
Last edited:
RamscoopRaider
Donor
The blockade was very detrimental, but was possible to be that detrimental because the CP were surrounded on land, and had very limited sea access and the biggest source of blockade runners stopped sending them in 1917, along with minor factors like Romania joining the Entente (where previously they had been exporting food to CP). Otherwise while still detrimental it won't be near as bad, and even OTL with the blockade as it was they achieved operational success into Summer 1918. Weaken the Entente significantly,and that operational success could (by accident) translate to strategic success, and there were plenty of ways to do that. LIikewise the same could be achieved by weakening, but not breaking, the blockade and strengthening the CP
The RN may control access to the Med by sea, but cargo can be railed across Spain then shipped to Italy, as long as Italy is neutral that is access, not as much as peacetime, but enough to make it significantly less bad. Gemany's allies made their greatest contributions on land
German victory does not require breaking the blockade, if France falls it is irrelevant, and France can fall even with the blockade weakening the CP
Just for fun, what are some likely names for the L20e a-class ships? They're running out of state names, unless they choose the smaller ones, like Anhalt and Schwarzburg. The Brandenburg- and Kaiser Friedrich III-class ships are up for scrapping, so it seems likely names could be reused from them.