That requires someone to wield the knife instead of flinching and fumbling it, plus the support of the Dark Lord.
The Fourth Lectern - A 2010 Election TL
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
That requires someone to wield the knife instead of flinching and fumbling it, plus the support of the Dark Lord.
Agreed.
Can someone refresh me on Gordon Brown's views of a possible coalition with the Lib Dems - especially as TL Labour have more seats wrt OTL.
If he's agreeable we could see the Labour leadership battle postponed until the byelection results. In which the Lib Dems may still get a bit of bashing depending on what cuts are implemented and the AV situation.
HELL NO would be understating it. For one simple reason: Clegg refused to negotiate unless Gordo was replaced, most preferably by Milli-D.
AndyC
Donor
On a potential Lab/LD Coalition: Way back in the third debate (ITTL), Brown concluded his summing up with an unconditional offer of Coalition to the Lib Dems, regardless of the outcome of the election (offering at least 2 seats in Cabinet even if he got a majority). This was interpreted as Mandelson aiming to paint the contest as Red/Yellow versus Blue/Purple, with the aim of pressing any Lab-> UKIP defectors to return, encouraging Con-> UKIP defectors, and legitimising a Labour vote for ex-Labour voters attracted by the Lib Dems.
In OTL, I always saw Brown as being more in favour of a Lab/LD Coalition than many of his negotiating team - he even offered to resign in September (after Piloting the country "through the worst of the economic storms" or words to that effect) to seal the deal and was willing to write cheques on electoral reform that his Party wouldn't cash. At the time I saw it as not evidence of any love for the Lib Dems but of his distaste for the concept of a Cameron (or any Tory) Premiership.
In OTL, I always saw Brown as being more in favour of a Lab/LD Coalition than many of his negotiating team - he even offered to resign in September (after Piloting the country "through the worst of the economic storms" or words to that effect) to seal the deal and was willing to write cheques on electoral reform that his Party wouldn't cash. At the time I saw it as not evidence of any love for the Lib Dems but of his distaste for the concept of a Cameron (or any Tory) Premiership.
I don't think he was "in favour" of it so much as desperate not to lose office. Heck, as one of his own people pointed out at the time "if you want a coalition with them you're going to have to learn to call them by their correct name." (Brown always referred to them as Liberals, not LibDems, such was his disain.)
Does anybody seriously think he would have honoured this promise and would not have tried to stay on?
I'm sure this is correct. Brown often seemed to assess a policy not on whether it was good for the country or even for Labour but on whether it would harm the tories.
Thande
Donor
Brown seems to have been obsessed with trying to get the Lib Dems on board as part of a "progressive" coalition to shut the Tories out since he became Prime Minister: remember all that kerfuffle in 2007 about trying to get Ming Campbell into the Cabinet?
What intrigues me is the impact on the voting system. OTL Labour's coalition offer was "implement AV, and then a referendum on whether to keep AV or go to STV". UKIP would, for obvious reasons, support such a voting reform. I wonder if the Tories would be able to do something with it, however, given that (to my interpretation) the recent referendum result suggests that there is a surprising hard core of British voters who prefer FPTP on its own merits.
What intrigues me is the impact on the voting system. OTL Labour's coalition offer was "implement AV, and then a referendum on whether to keep AV or go to STV". UKIP would, for obvious reasons, support such a voting reform. I wonder if the Tories would be able to do something with it, however, given that (to my interpretation) the recent referendum result suggests that there is a surprising hard core of British voters who prefer FPTP on its own merits.
Brown might not be so quick to offer that this time round however, in OTL he was having to try and sweet talk as many as 5 parties who wanted STV whilst also trying to convince them to go for his much more unstable and unpopular rainbow coalition idea. Here the tables have turned, the only stable coalition possible will be Lab-Lib and thus he'll have much more bargaining power when dealing with Huhne.
AndyC
Donor
CCHQ, 0730 - 1200
Andy Coulson
We’d had some showers installed in the basement of CCHQ, and I definitely needed one. A blast of hot water over the skin ensured I was fully awake and feeling a lot better. Cleaner. When I got back to the battle room, I promptly asked after any news.
I learned that we’d held Bromley & Chislehurst and Arundel & South Downs, whilst the reds had held Dulwich & West Norwood and Hemsworth. None had been targets or genuinely at risk, but it was still a mild relief that the chaos into which the UKIP surge had plunged us hadn’t claimed any more victims. Truro & Falmouth had gone to a recount, which was a pleasant surprise. It was on the target board, but rather low down, and the Lib Dems had done fairly well tonight. Well, apart from Lembit, which still amused me. Then again, they were defending Manchester Withington against Labour and that also was going to a recount.
Two more Labour holds in safe seats as eight o’clock approached – Ealing Southall and Manchester Central. Then, just before the hour, two seats finished their recounts: St Albans and Brigg & Goole.
Anne Main had been defending a majority of a little over a thousand votes over Labour – notionally – in St Albans. Well, I say “notionally”, but apparently there had been only a miniscule change in the constituency. She’d been badly hit by the UKIP surge, I noted, but had held on by 138 votes – over the Lib Dems. She only had a smidgeon over 32% of the vote, but it was enough – just.
Brigg & Goole was a target against Labour, and we’d pulled it off – Conservative Gain. A clean 233 votes. By the standards of tonight, that was practically a safe seat …
We still had yet to hear any official words from Number 10. Apparently Brown had headed down in the last hour or so and called a meeting of his inner Cabinet, but still no intelligence had leaked out. The Dark Lord was running a tight ship, it seemed. There were some demonstrators on College Green holding placards for “Fair Votes”. Well, maybe they had a point, but Labour were hardly going to sacrifice a system which was seeing them head towards 300 seats with a shockingly low share of the vote, and those represented in this room were likely to be – well – fairly conservative about the entire matter.
More London seats were declared. Labour held Streatham, Hampstead & Kilburn, Vauxhall and Leyton & Wanstead. Ealing Central & Acton went to a recount. Lewisham East was another Labour hold and Watford, as expected, went to a recount. I was told that it was practically a four way dead heat and anyone could win the recount.
Talking about recounts, Swindon South was finally declared, and Labour had held on to it by 84 votes. Walsall South finished its recount and Labour held by 374 votes – but the interesting thing was that the second placed party was UKIP! I hadn’t thought Walsall likely to be a UKIP stronghold, and neither had Labour, I guess. I’d bet they were breathing a sigh of relief. We came out better after the York Outer recount – we’d snatched it from the Lib Dems by a margin of 170 votes. A flurry of recount declarations – Croydon Central went final with their count. Bloody Pelling had done just what we’d feared, and Labour had it by 200 votes. Well, it was notionally a Labour hold after the boundaries had been redrawn, but we’d been regarding it almost as a defence rather than a target and certainly Victoria Street would be looking on it as a bonus.
Jeez – another recount had completed: Dorset Mid & Poole North. This had barely made our target list against the Lib Dems, so we’d done well to push Annette Brooke as close as we had. And we’d only bloody taken it! 17,462 votes against 17,310, with UKIP third on 10,437. The hapless Labour guy had lost his deposit.
And then Northampton North finished as well. We’d nabbed that one as well, but it was definitely a four-way marginal next time. We’d got 10,433, Labour had dropped to 10,188, UKIP had pushed up to 9,010 and the Lib Dems were on 8,793. I had a look at the vote shares and whistled. You don’t win many seats with a vote share of just 25.9%, but that’s just what Michael Ellis had done.
Things were moving slower now – even with that flurry of recount declarations, that was only 13 seats in the past hour. Labour were inching closer to the 300 mark – they were now on 291, whilst we’d climbed to 232 (and probable safety for David, although I’d be a lot happier with 240 on the board), whilst the Lib Dems were becalmed on 45. Still over fifty seats to declare, mind you. I noted idly that the putative Lab/Lib coalition now had a majority.
David had returned from his nap and we (plus George and Steve) did some brainstorming (or, if Steve had his way “thought showering”. Just – why? It seemed to imply a more eco-friendly version of brainwashing to me, that phrase). We came out at ten, and David left to put our notion into motion. Whilst we were in there, Labour had held East Ham and West Ham, together with Lewisham West & Penge and Lewisham Deptford. We’d picked up Milton Keynes North from Labour and Cornwall South East from the Lib Dems. Another seven seats had finished their recounts:
Stevenage. Labour held by a piddly 83 votes. I’d had a good feeling about this one as well. Guess I wasn’t cut out for a job as a psychic then.
Cardiff North: Labour held by 378.
Bristol North West – Labour held by 337 votes, but it was now another four-way seat for the future. Fewer than 2,200 votes between first and fourth.
Hove – At last, another Conservative gain. The recount had put us 274 votes clear. We’d also come out trumps in the recount at Camborne & Redruth, by 237 votes over the Lib Dems. Yet another winner with a vote share in the twenties, though.
Sheffield Central – Labour held on by 414 votes over the Lib Dems, and in Brighton Kemptown we fell short by a mere 39 votes.
David made his short speech just outside, and was covered by all of the networks. He called upon Gordon Brown to accept the verdict of the electorate “We haven’t won, but it is indisputable that he has lost the mandate of the people of the United Kingdom. Regardless of whether or not his Party manages to trade its way to stay in power, he must accept that he is the problem and not the solution. We need a strong Government and I accept that there will be a period in which we politicians will need time to find out what is the most acceptable solution. I strongly suggest that he look within his own Cabinet for a replacement for the short term whilst we all seek the longer term solution in the interests of the Country”.
Perfect, I thought. There’s no way the paranoid lump will step down now.
Midday closed in on us with still nothing but silence from Number Ten. Labour holds in Walthamstow, Brent North and Poplar & Limehouse took them to the psychologically important milestone of 300 seats. Sarah Teather held on in Brent Central for the Lib Dems by the slender majority of 166 votes after a recount. That was their last good news of the morning, though – the recounts in Truro & Falmouth and Manchester Withington had gone against them – we picked up the former by 147 votes and Labour the latter by 177 votes. An a further blow – they’d come so close to pinching Bradford East from Labour but had fallen short by only 80 votes. Ealing Central & Acton finally declared and had been another nail-biter: Labour held onto it by 390 votes over us, but we were only 136 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in third place. Only 33 seats left to declare, and one of those wouldn’t be for another three weeks.
The midday scores were:
Labour: 304
Conservatives: 237
Liberal Democrats: 46
UKIP: 2
Green: 1
SNP: 6
Plaid Cymru: 3
IKHH: 1
DUP: 8
Sinn Fein: 4
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Independent (Hermon): 1
Andy Coulson
We’d had some showers installed in the basement of CCHQ, and I definitely needed one. A blast of hot water over the skin ensured I was fully awake and feeling a lot better. Cleaner. When I got back to the battle room, I promptly asked after any news.
I learned that we’d held Bromley & Chislehurst and Arundel & South Downs, whilst the reds had held Dulwich & West Norwood and Hemsworth. None had been targets or genuinely at risk, but it was still a mild relief that the chaos into which the UKIP surge had plunged us hadn’t claimed any more victims. Truro & Falmouth had gone to a recount, which was a pleasant surprise. It was on the target board, but rather low down, and the Lib Dems had done fairly well tonight. Well, apart from Lembit, which still amused me. Then again, they were defending Manchester Withington against Labour and that also was going to a recount.
Two more Labour holds in safe seats as eight o’clock approached – Ealing Southall and Manchester Central. Then, just before the hour, two seats finished their recounts: St Albans and Brigg & Goole.
Anne Main had been defending a majority of a little over a thousand votes over Labour – notionally – in St Albans. Well, I say “notionally”, but apparently there had been only a miniscule change in the constituency. She’d been badly hit by the UKIP surge, I noted, but had held on by 138 votes – over the Lib Dems. She only had a smidgeon over 32% of the vote, but it was enough – just.
Brigg & Goole was a target against Labour, and we’d pulled it off – Conservative Gain. A clean 233 votes. By the standards of tonight, that was practically a safe seat …
We still had yet to hear any official words from Number 10. Apparently Brown had headed down in the last hour or so and called a meeting of his inner Cabinet, but still no intelligence had leaked out. The Dark Lord was running a tight ship, it seemed. There were some demonstrators on College Green holding placards for “Fair Votes”. Well, maybe they had a point, but Labour were hardly going to sacrifice a system which was seeing them head towards 300 seats with a shockingly low share of the vote, and those represented in this room were likely to be – well – fairly conservative about the entire matter.
More London seats were declared. Labour held Streatham, Hampstead & Kilburn, Vauxhall and Leyton & Wanstead. Ealing Central & Acton went to a recount. Lewisham East was another Labour hold and Watford, as expected, went to a recount. I was told that it was practically a four way dead heat and anyone could win the recount.
Talking about recounts, Swindon South was finally declared, and Labour had held on to it by 84 votes. Walsall South finished its recount and Labour held by 374 votes – but the interesting thing was that the second placed party was UKIP! I hadn’t thought Walsall likely to be a UKIP stronghold, and neither had Labour, I guess. I’d bet they were breathing a sigh of relief. We came out better after the York Outer recount – we’d snatched it from the Lib Dems by a margin of 170 votes. A flurry of recount declarations – Croydon Central went final with their count. Bloody Pelling had done just what we’d feared, and Labour had it by 200 votes. Well, it was notionally a Labour hold after the boundaries had been redrawn, but we’d been regarding it almost as a defence rather than a target and certainly Victoria Street would be looking on it as a bonus.
Jeez – another recount had completed: Dorset Mid & Poole North. This had barely made our target list against the Lib Dems, so we’d done well to push Annette Brooke as close as we had. And we’d only bloody taken it! 17,462 votes against 17,310, with UKIP third on 10,437. The hapless Labour guy had lost his deposit.
And then Northampton North finished as well. We’d nabbed that one as well, but it was definitely a four-way marginal next time. We’d got 10,433, Labour had dropped to 10,188, UKIP had pushed up to 9,010 and the Lib Dems were on 8,793. I had a look at the vote shares and whistled. You don’t win many seats with a vote share of just 25.9%, but that’s just what Michael Ellis had done.
Things were moving slower now – even with that flurry of recount declarations, that was only 13 seats in the past hour. Labour were inching closer to the 300 mark – they were now on 291, whilst we’d climbed to 232 (and probable safety for David, although I’d be a lot happier with 240 on the board), whilst the Lib Dems were becalmed on 45. Still over fifty seats to declare, mind you. I noted idly that the putative Lab/Lib coalition now had a majority.
David had returned from his nap and we (plus George and Steve) did some brainstorming (or, if Steve had his way “thought showering”. Just – why? It seemed to imply a more eco-friendly version of brainwashing to me, that phrase). We came out at ten, and David left to put our notion into motion. Whilst we were in there, Labour had held East Ham and West Ham, together with Lewisham West & Penge and Lewisham Deptford. We’d picked up Milton Keynes North from Labour and Cornwall South East from the Lib Dems. Another seven seats had finished their recounts:
Stevenage. Labour held by a piddly 83 votes. I’d had a good feeling about this one as well. Guess I wasn’t cut out for a job as a psychic then.
Cardiff North: Labour held by 378.
Bristol North West – Labour held by 337 votes, but it was now another four-way seat for the future. Fewer than 2,200 votes between first and fourth.
Hove – At last, another Conservative gain. The recount had put us 274 votes clear. We’d also come out trumps in the recount at Camborne & Redruth, by 237 votes over the Lib Dems. Yet another winner with a vote share in the twenties, though.
Sheffield Central – Labour held on by 414 votes over the Lib Dems, and in Brighton Kemptown we fell short by a mere 39 votes.
David made his short speech just outside, and was covered by all of the networks. He called upon Gordon Brown to accept the verdict of the electorate “We haven’t won, but it is indisputable that he has lost the mandate of the people of the United Kingdom. Regardless of whether or not his Party manages to trade its way to stay in power, he must accept that he is the problem and not the solution. We need a strong Government and I accept that there will be a period in which we politicians will need time to find out what is the most acceptable solution. I strongly suggest that he look within his own Cabinet for a replacement for the short term whilst we all seek the longer term solution in the interests of the Country”.
Perfect, I thought. There’s no way the paranoid lump will step down now.
Midday closed in on us with still nothing but silence from Number Ten. Labour holds in Walthamstow, Brent North and Poplar & Limehouse took them to the psychologically important milestone of 300 seats. Sarah Teather held on in Brent Central for the Lib Dems by the slender majority of 166 votes after a recount. That was their last good news of the morning, though – the recounts in Truro & Falmouth and Manchester Withington had gone against them – we picked up the former by 147 votes and Labour the latter by 177 votes. An a further blow – they’d come so close to pinching Bradford East from Labour but had fallen short by only 80 votes. Ealing Central & Acton finally declared and had been another nail-biter: Labour held onto it by 390 votes over us, but we were only 136 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in third place. Only 33 seats left to declare, and one of those wouldn’t be for another three weeks.
The midday scores were:
Labour: 304
Conservatives: 237
Liberal Democrats: 46
UKIP: 2
Green: 1
SNP: 6
Plaid Cymru: 3
IKHH: 1
DUP: 8
Sinn Fein: 4
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Independent (Hermon): 1
UKIP's going to be wiped out at the next election, absent major electoral reform, given how it's been clearly demonstrated how much of a wasted vote they were. That'll probably break substantially in the Tories' favour. It's unclear to me whether a Lib-Lab pact will be stable enough to survive a full term, although I can see some very substantial instability when Huhne's wife takes him out.
At this point, this assessment seems fairly accurate. Short of a change in voting system between elections, UKIP's very limited success here will have been seen as an anomaly in an otherwise stable party system.
My other thought here is about the enthusiasm for electoral reform is going to be inredibly limited in the Labour party - and even, to a certain extent, in the Lib Dems. One of the attractions of it for them is the belief in progressive majority - if reform was primarily seen to enfrancise UKIP voters that most Lib Dems caricature as extreme right, and strongly increase the chances of withdrawral from the EU, I wonder if it might become les of a priority.
I would argue not, as it seems likely that the Lib Dems here were weakened by suddenly viable UKIP candidacies in this timeline. Take away FPTP, and the Lib Dems likely still would have done better.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if PR was made the new system of voting ITTL.
UKIP may only have about 10 seats by the end (I'm calling bull on a party with over 4 million votes getting less then 10 seats) but Tory and other party defections may beefen them up with PR being passed, as well as more of an argument being made i.e. the party with the least amount of votes stayed in, the fourth largest party got far less seats then it should have.
UKIP may only have about 10 seats by the end (I'm calling bull on a party with over 4 million votes getting less then 10 seats) but Tory and other party defections may beefen them up with PR being passed, as well as more of an argument being made i.e. the party with the least amount of votes stayed in, the fourth largest party got far less seats then it should have.
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It's possible in FPTP for a party with 49% of the to not win any seats as long as the other has 51%, UKIP seem to be suffering from a less extreme but still serious case of this.
Good point but still now I think the big three may be more Euroscpetic now that it seems that the public will vote on Europe so maybe Ireland and Portugal have to make do without Britain's contribution.
True, but having three parties waging national campaigns and all winning seats has already jumbled up this potentiality in FPTP.
Portugal maybe, but Britain's Ireland bailout had nothing to do with Brussels IIRC. It was done directly in the interests of keeping our biggest local trading partner afloat.
Yes but 'bailing out the Euro' is easier to remember then 'we're making sure our trading partner doesn't explode'.
Sure, but it's still going to happen. There is no way any government in Britain wouldn't bail out Ireland under any circumstances, short of Britain being in the same diabolical economic dire straits. I accept the PR hit may be greater than OTL but it will happen.