The Fire Never Dies: Labor's Star Ascendant
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More precisely, they will be given a referendum, and I imagine both will pass. Mind you, the "independence" option does include a clause about retaining basing rights, so it's not as if the Americans will be gone.
In Puerto Rico, but I'm not actually sure it would in Hawai'i, especially assuming that the ASU breaks up the Big Five (and why wouldn't it) and ends New English dominance in Hawaiian politics (again, why wouldn't it). By this point the Hawaiians were a decided minority of the population (they were in fact behind both the Japanese and whites), so that they needed allies to oppose U.S. annexation and push for a restoration of the monarchy. Historically, they got them from the laboring groups, especially the Asian laborers (the Japanese, who were the largest single ethnic group, and the Chinese, who were the fourth largest). But this came from their mutual opposition to the dominance of New English people in politics and their control of the Big Five companies that accounted for most of the island's economy--the New English in particular had been responsible for the Bayonet Constitution that had disenfranchised Asians, and obviously they were the "bosses" that laborers opposed.
Thus, if the ASU rolls in, breaks up the Big Five, and establishes actually free and fair elections, this substantially changes the calculus of voters compared to the situation of OTL (much as the Democratic Revolution of the 1950s did in reality, in fact--that even had a substantial socialist and communist element to it!). It's quite plausible that they could look at the situation of the world around them and decide that sticking with the ASU is a pretty good deal after all. This is only compounded by the fact that the Hawaiian monarchy is, well, kind of on a downswing by this point--Lili'uokalani died in 1917, so she's probably not long for this life, and as is often the case it was hard to have a clearly legitimate heir afterwards--Kai'ulani had died in 1899, so she's probably not around, so it becomes a bit hard to say who really ought to be king or queen in a resurrected Kingdom.
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There won't be a restoration of the monarchy. If Hawaii goes independent, it'll be as a socialist republic.
Right, I should have thought of that. But that makes independence even less likely. A lot of the interest in independence in Hawai'i in this period was connected to the idea of restoring the monarchy, if that's not even on the table then I think it's actually fairly unlikely that they will choose to become independent. You also might see a lot of boycotting or protests from Hawaiians, too.
To be honest, I'm not sure what the ASU would do if the monarchy was restored but didn't change relations. If they tried to expel the Red Navy from Pearl Harbor, the ASU would bring the hammer down, but I don't know if they'd intervene in domestic affairs.
Is it crazy that I'm considering it.Established a socialist monarchy, problem solved.
Right now, I'm leaning towards the referendum being close but still going for independence. However, a subsequent vote to reestablish the monarchy fails.
The Hawaiians were never especially happy with giving the U.S. basing rights at Pearl Harbor, but even in the wake of the Big Five being broken up and the New English clique being pushed out of power (meaning that the U.S. has fewer levers to pull in Hawaiian politics) they're not stupid. At the very least, they'd want rock-solid guarantees from the United Kingdom (always the country they looked to as a counterbalance to the United States, though not very successfully) and Japan before making any moves like that.
dentista campora
Banned
''As opposed to the european monarchies, they have no fault in spreading capitalism to this land by colonizing it, so let them pass''Established a socialist monarchy, problem solved.
-Debs before the tooth pain tincture wears off, i guess.
It wouldn't be the first time an ideologically/politically awkward arrangement passed because the strategic benefits (or costs of not doing it) are seen as too great to ignore.
Do as was done in an alt-earth story I read once and just make the queen a defender of Hawaiian Culture with no authority
That could work. I do think that the socialists would insist on making the nation officially a republic, but they could give the monarchy a small ceremonial and cultural role. To give one example, I think it wouldn't be unreasonable to give the Hawaiian monarchs Iolani Palace as a personal residence. It's not as if they'd have much use for it otherwise, given how it's barely twice as big as your average McMansion.
What about protectorate status?
Restore the monarchy under Liliʻuokalani and have it naturally pass to the Kawānanakoa branch.
Restore the monarchy under Liliʻuokalani and have it naturally pass to the Kawānanakoa branch.
If the monarchy is restored in any form, it'll be the Kawānanakoa branch. But the ASU won't bring back the monarchy. The sequence of events will be something like this:
1. Reds take control of Hawaii.
2. War ends.
3. Referendum on whether Hawaii wants to become an independent state (with basing rights for the ASU) or a full territorial republic.
4. Independence wins.
5. Referendum on restoring the monarchy or becoming a republic.
6. Republic wins.
7. The "Hawaiian Monarchy Act" is passed by the Commune of Hawaii, recognizing the Hawaiian monarchy as a thing and granting them a stipend to promote Hawaiian culture.
8. Hawaiian monarchs spend the next century cutting ribbons, holding art exhibitions at Iolani Palace, and probably getting into creating media themselves. At least one Hawaiian monarch will be a successful director.
Or perhaps analogous to the Institution of the Emperor in Post-WWII Japan?
Lili'uokalani is dead at this point anyway, or at the very least on her deathbed. She's certainly going to die before the end of the civil war.
61. The Chandler Scheme
…The Salem offensive did have an effect on the Republicans, who had actually been considering options for a peaceful settlement. Obviously, a simple return to the status quo was unacceptable. Fanciful proposals such as partitioning the country had been floated, but the Reds were not the Confederacy. Their goal was not independence, but a takeover of the government, and they appeared to be capable of doing exactly that…
…Instead, Congressman Walter M. Chandler (R-NY) proposed that Vice-President Marshall resign and Senator Robert LaFollete (currently in a jail cell) be named to replace him. President Wilson would then resign (or be impeached), making LaFollete President. The idea was to allow the Socialists to be in control but restrained by the existing system of government, and with the moderate LaFollete in the White House instead of the radical Debs…
…The failure of the Salem offensive pushed Chandler to act. However, in his attempts to get a message to the Reds, he drew the attention of J. Edgar Hoover, who headed the Bureau of Investigation’s General Intelligence Division[1]. Chandler and his co-conspirators were arrested on charges of treason. Despite having not been aware of the scheme, LaFollete was executed. The last hope for peace had been brutally snuffed out…
- From The Last President by Aviva Chomsky
[1] IOTL, Hoover became head of the General Intelligence Division (also known as the Radical Division) in 1919, having headed the Alien Enemies Division in 1917. ITTL, the General Intelligence Division is seen as primary, and Hoover goes there.
…Instead, Congressman Walter M. Chandler (R-NY) proposed that Vice-President Marshall resign and Senator Robert LaFollete (currently in a jail cell) be named to replace him. President Wilson would then resign (or be impeached), making LaFollete President. The idea was to allow the Socialists to be in control but restrained by the existing system of government, and with the moderate LaFollete in the White House instead of the radical Debs…
…The failure of the Salem offensive pushed Chandler to act. However, in his attempts to get a message to the Reds, he drew the attention of J. Edgar Hoover, who headed the Bureau of Investigation’s General Intelligence Division[1]. Chandler and his co-conspirators were arrested on charges of treason. Despite having not been aware of the scheme, LaFollete was executed. The last hope for peace had been brutally snuffed out…
- From The Last President by Aviva Chomsky
[1] IOTL, Hoover became head of the General Intelligence Division (also known as the Radical Division) in 1919, having headed the Alien Enemies Division in 1917. ITTL, the General Intelligence Division is seen as primary, and Hoover goes there.
