A bit shorter than I'd planned. But there's only so many ways to say "And then a lot of people died."
Part CIII: Oh Death
We last saw the Black Death come out of the Egyptian Campaign of Constantine V in the 700s, delaying his son Leo’s campaign into Syria, Palaestina, and Mesopotamia by many years. That sweep through the Empire had killed nearly a fifth of the Empire’s population, and that had been considered one of the worst diseases to ever sweep through Europe. The plague of the 1340s was much, much worse. It had been six hundred years since this particular plague had struck, and what resistance had built up was now gone.
It is definitively known the new plague came from somewhere on the steppe, and not from Turki controlled lands. The best bet is somewhere in Tataria, hitting the region hard, but this was nothing compared to what happened when a sick mercenary passed into Roman service in Taurica. From there the disease passed into the Roman camp. The disease spread into the army slowly, but as the withdrawal from Kiev continued it spread, to the Empress herself. Her second son, Petrus, only twelve years old, was with the army at the time, and had been kept sequestered under orders from his mother.
The army was on the verge of disintegration, and needed a new leader; even if only a figurehead. And so the soldiers proclaimed the boy Emperor. This was technically illegal, as his elder brother was the declared and recognized heir. But circumstance trumped legality. Manuel was far away in Italy, and was also an underage boy.
Petrus was brought out and paraded in front of the soldiers and issued orders for the care of the sick, and as the army approached Cherson the sick were put into a new camp, where they could hopefully recover, or they would not. Petrus himself sailed for Constantinople on a ship with no one else from the north, and met his father at the capital. To avoid civil war orders were sent to keep Manuel in his effective house arrest in Italy, and Petrus was officially declared Emperor. The capital waited for word of recovery or additional sickness in the north, but it was already far too late. A ship had sailed from Cherson to Manueliopolis, and that ship carried the sickness with it. Manueliopolis was quite possibly the worst place in the entire Eastern sections of the Empire a ship could have arrived with the Plague.
The city was filled with Venetian trade ships, and flowed with commerce that passed through the Hyrcanian Sea and northern Persia. We will examine the impact of the plague on the East later, because for our narrative what is more important is that the Venetian ships scattered. The spread of the disease started out highly localized, in Taurica, Armenia, Constantinople, along the western coast of Anatolia, and into Greece
Petrus’s advisors took rapid action, shutting down the ports of Greece, Anatolia, and Armenia and forbidding long-term travel. Senators were confined to their dwellings, and ordinances restricting daily life were issued. Those who were sick were quarantined and only allowed outside their homes at night. Collectors of the dead were sent to collect the deceased for mass burial or for burning. Over the course of 1341 nearly three-quarters of Constantinople’s recovered one-hundred twenty thousand population died, with similar numbers in Athens, Thessalonika, Ephesos, Pergamum, and other cities. Strict as the measures were they did not stop the spread.
A ship from Constantinople spread the disease to Antioch the following year, and another ship spread it to Alexandria in the Caliphate. From those cities disease spread as officials found themselves completely overwhelmed. Bathhouses, often not the most hygienic of places were closed down to avoid public contamination. Even churches were closed as congregations of desperate worshipers tried to find solace in holy places, only to act as places disease could spread rapidly. The wider army was not exempt from the devastation, and throughout 1342 no pay was issued at all, similar to what had happened under Leo IV. As had occurred then the scale of sickness meant revolts did not occur. The plague spread West, reaching Sicily in 1342, and Venice the same year. Arrival at Venice was a particular disaster for Europe, as trade from that city was widespread, and soon cases beyond the Alps were occurring.
New religious movements sprang up, looking to find whatever fault had occurred with the Christian religion that had caused God to unleash such a horrible punishment. It was said that rich or poor, faithful or not, nothing could stop death. This wasn’t entirely true, as wealthier individuals did survive at higher rates than poorer, but it didn’t seem that way to people at the time. Attacks on religious minorities both throughout the Empire and the rest of Europe intensified, with many communities being expelled or killed in violence that followed outbreaks.
The trade networks which linked Europe broke down, with the Goths in particular seeing their networks suffering greatly, a process which almost certainly delayed the crossing of the Atlantic Ocean by several decades. From Hispania sickness spread north in Gaelia, hitting Toulouse in early 1344, and from there spreading further north. Frankia weas hit during the same year, killing much of the Frankish Senate and the royal family. The death of so many Frankish aristocrats led to a vacuum at the top of the state, and when the plague passes will result in a vicious war with Germania that will last the rest of the century, but will end with Frankia predominant over the latter state.
Germania, as well as Polania, for their part were by 1344 already dealing with a massive epidemic that arrived from Venice, traveling up the Amber Road. Polania was badly weakened, and in the years after the plague dealt with major revolts among the Bulgari, and lost northern lands to the pagans, reversing decades of gains. The pagans were hit, but to a far lesser extent as their decentralized and remote lands were not well-integrated to the Christian trade routes. Most cases came from raiders bringing back captives from Christian lands as slaves, most of whom died with their captors without spreading plague deeper.
Finally in 1347 the Rusi of Novgorod were hit, by sickness spreading out of Scandinavia. Sickness from Novgorod and Kiev hit the rest of Russia by 1348, completing the initial outbreak of the new Black Death. It wasn’t over by any means, but nowhere in Christendom was spared.
As noted, we will deal with most of the political consequences outside the Roman Empire later, but there is a certain commonality. Populations had been increasing over the previous century. The Empire had a population of over 25 million and rising. The cities of the Empire were growing as well, with Italy alone having more than twelve cities of over fifty thousand. Venice alone had a population of over one hundred thousand. Among the Roman population nearly ten million people died. The scale of death is quite literally impossible to fathom. The Hunnic Invasion had killed maybe two million from all causes, and that was already horribly scarring for the Roman state. Tax revenues collapsed, the military was left badly depleted. And in 1345 Emperor Petrus II died. He’d caught the plague in the Palace, and soon was dead. He was 17 years old and had been Emperor for 5 years. He was a child when he took the throne, and still a child when he died. His reign was spent cloistered away from the world, trying to boost morale where he could.
Who would follow Petrus was a matter of some debate in the Imperial household. Manuel was once again the legal Emperor, but there was still the matter of his health, which was still viewed as fragile. Manuel’s deeply isolated life in Italy had largely been bypassed by the plague. The lands were self-sufficient and very few visitors came or went, enforced by military patrols. The young man was in many ways under house arrest, seeing almost no one except his handlers and a young wife who had arrived shortly before the plague hit. Bringing him to Constantinople was too likely to kill him, so once again Manuel was overlooked.
The Imperial Court had Paulus appointed Emperor, and once again a child was on the throne. He would reign, for some definition of reign anyway, for the next two years before also coming down with the Plague and dying. Paulus was 17 years old, and had been Emperor for just under 2 years. He was much like his older brother.
This was a deeply surprising event, as after 1346 the plague had declined dramatically within the Empire, a blessing after nearly five years of horrible disease. Urban populations of the Empire had dropped by well over half during the years of plague, and rural populations had fallen by over a quarter. A full forty percent of the Empire’s 1340 was dead.
The economy was in ruins. Not only had vast quantities of farmland been left without tenants, but the trade economy was completely shut down. The Italian cities that powered the trade networks of the Empire were all quarantined and had been so for years. Suppliers, sailors, artisans, merchants. Vast swathes of all these groups were now dead. The Senate was horribly depleted, as most of those men had come from the hardest hit cities.
Into this mess stepped the last son of Katerina, Manuel IV. The once sickly boy, now sickly young man, departed Italy after hearing the news of his brother’s death, leaving his wife and very young son, John, behind. There were no ships to Greece to be found, so he traveled overland, on roads he’d never seen, riding a horse he’d barely been allowed to touch. He grew ill as he passed through Illyria, but pressed on. He rode past abandoned towns, mass graves, and empty farmland. And he arrived in the capital just before winter set in, passing into the city with barely any comment. He proceeded down the streets, which while not empty as the city was mostly free of plague, were still now full of a fifth the pre-plague population, and arrived at the Palace and demanded entry.
The guards were unsure what to do with the dirty, ungroomed, and rude man that demanded entry, but he had a signet ring of the Imperial family, and documents showing him to be the heir. Finally he was shown into the palace, and met with his now elderly father. The two had a tearful reunion, and Manuel was crowned Emperor. Still in his traveling clothes.
Manuel had not been idle in his time away in exile. He had studied, learned from the greatest minds of the Empire before the plague, and then was left with ancient books of philosophy, engineering, and economics as his companions after the estate went into quarantine. He intended to get the Empire back on track. Get the trade flowing again, and the economy moving. Because he had dreams, dreams of proving everyone who had thought him weak wrong. To prove that the court had been wrong to pass him over as Emperor.
He wouldn’t just springboard recovery, he would go further than any Emperor in history. He would repeat he feats of the Great Manuel who had preceded him. That young Emperor had inherited a broken mess and stitched something greater from what had come before. And now Manuel IV intended to be greater still, to not just rebuild the Empire as it stood now, but to reconquer it all. To drive his forces East, into Egypt, into the Holy Land, and into Mesopotamia. Reconquer the entire Roman East.
And he knew that all he needed was time.