Succession, if James VI of Scotland dies in 1572

[Shiva]

Inspired by @VVD0D95's thread about Elizabeth I, what if James VI of Scotland (who in RL wound up becoming James I of England) died in the year 1572. Who would become King of Scotland, would this person manage to keep it? And what would happen to the English succession?

 

[VVD0D95]

I believe the Scottish successor would be James Hamilton either the 2nd or third earl of arran. As for the English succession would it not pass to the descendants of
Margaret Douglas or if not her Mary Tudor?

 

[Shiva]

I believe the Scottish successor would be James Hamilton either the 2nd or third earl of arran. As for the English succession would it not pass to the descendants of
Margaret Douglas or if not her Mary Tudor?

On paper, yes. But this is still the era where things can be decided by the sword, and in Scotland's case this is much more acute. Especially since James VI is a child and his Regencies have been unstable ones, and there are several people who have blood claims on the Scottish throne, and some of them are in Scotland and in positions of power and prestige to try and press that claim.

Not to mention that in England, Mary of Scots is still alive but has just been directly linked to a plot to kill Elizabeth, and while this isn't the first such plot, this is the first plot that Mary of Scots directly signed off on. Now theoretically, Elizabeth could launch an intervention to put Mary back on the Scottish throne, the question is... would she?

 

[Tyler96]

I believe the Scottish successor would be James Hamilton either the 2nd or third earl of arran.

Aye, it would be James Hamilton 2nd Earl Arran and sometime Duke of Chatellerault, but his eldest son is already crazy and that may complicate matters. Arran himself is also quite old (he died in '75 IOTL) and he may have been imprisoned at the time of our POD.

The Lennox Stewarts had also claimed that they were the rightful successors- they contended that the 1st Earl of Arran's marriage was invalid and that they were the rightful heirs as descendants of the 1st Earl of Arran's sister. Was their status as heirs confirmed/acknowledged by Mary when she married Darnley?

But Matthew Stewart 4th Earl of Lennox is already dead and his son Charles is in England (and his mother is probably focused on getting him the English throne). There are some brothers of Matthew floating about but I'm not sure what they're capable of.

There's also royal bastards around, but I don't know if anyone would go for that.

As for the English succession- if Lizzie has her OTL lifespan there's 30 years of potential butterflies there (different kids born, different possible successors falling into disfavour with Lizzie and facing imprisonment, longer/shorter lifespans for important figures etc.). But the obvious candidates are 1) Charles Lennox/his offspring; 2) Edward Seymour, son of Catherine Grey (though he's officially a bastard); 3) A Stanley descendant of Margaret Clifford (IOTL this line was represented by Anne Countess of Castlehaven in 1603)- but Clifford fell into disfavour with Lizzie later IOTL, and her sons were suspected of Catholic sympathies/caught up in Catholic plots or somesuch. A Hastings (Earl of Huntingdon) was floated as a potential successor during Lizzie's brush with smallpox in the 1560s, but their claim is remote (deriving from George Duke of Clarence).

Not to mention that in England, Mary of Scots is still alive but has just been directly linked to a plot to kill Elizabeth, and while this isn't the first such plot, this is the first plot that Mary of Scots directly signed off on. Now theoretically, Elizabeth could launch an intervention to put Mary back on the Scottish throne, the question is... would she?

I s'pose it depends on if you can conjure a scenario where a Mary reinstalled on the throne by English influence better serves England's interests than whoever seizes power in Scotland, and reinstalling Mary is worth the cost of intervention (military/financial/whatever). Wouldn't a significant proportion of Lizzie's councillors be opposed to releasing a potential Catholic heir to the throne?

 

[Shiva]

So legally speaking it would be James Hamilton as James VII... However he's an old man, his heir is insane, Scotland will turn into an even nastier swamp of intrigue than usual due to all of this...

I could see James being crowned with most expecting him to be a placeholder for someone else, his son, also named James Hamilton will suffered a 'tragic accident' to keep 'Mad Jimmy' from inheriting. So if the Hamilton's can hold on to Scotland it will be John Hamilton, 1st Marquess of Hamilton who will inherit. John Hamilton seems to have had a successful life in RL, he's most notable for founding Hamilton Academy (which still exists!).

That is if James VII can hold on to Scotland...


As for Mary of Scots, well she's in England and while she's been caught scheming against her cousin, never the less Elizabeth I Tudor is a vain thing and the idea of restoring her fellow monarch to 'her rightful throne' would be tempting... But there's just too much going against it. Though I'm sure her court would be alarmed for several months as their Queen toys with the notion, mostly just to keep people on edge.

 

[VVD0D95]

So legally speaking it would be James Hamilton as James VII... However he's an old man, his heir is insane, Scotland will turn into an even nastier swamp of intrigue than usual due to all of this...

I could see James being crowned with most expecting him to be a placeholder for someone else, his son, also named James Hamilton will suffered a 'tragic accident' to keep 'Mad Jimmy' from inheriting. So if the Hamilton's can hold on to Scotland it will be John Hamilton, 1st Marquess of Hamilton who will inherit. John Hamilton seems to have had a successful life in RL, he's most notable for founding Hamilton Academy (which still exists!).

That is if James VII can hold on to Scotland...


As for Mary of Scots, well she's in England and while she's been caught scheming against her cousin, never the less Elizabeth I Tudor is a vain thing and the idea of restoring her fellow monarch to 'her rightful throne' would be tempting... But there's just too much going against it. Though I'm sure her court would be alarmed for several months as their Queen toys with the notion, mostly just to keep people on edge.

Oh definitely, I think Liz would dangle it above Mary's head, as well as Hamilton's and then when she thinks the time is right, probably get concessions out of Hamilton.

 

[Shiva]

Oh definitely, I think Liz would dangle it above Mary's head, as well as Hamilton's and then when she thinks the time is right, probably get concessions out of Hamilton.

Plus even if it isn't Hamilton on the throne, whoever is sitting on the Scottish throne would find themselves in a similar situation, having to give concessions to England to keep Elizabeth from invading to 'restore' Mary Stuart to the throne.

Now Scotland falling into outright civil war would be an extreme response to all of this, it wouldn't happen right off the bat, but if the new King is weak and the scheming and plotting continues unabated for too long, someone will do something so stupid it will spiral into an armed conflict.