Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II

President Garner choosing isolation over fighting with the rest of the major western nations against the Soviet Union and Japan in a clash of civilizations.

The US was all to close to that OTL. If Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor, it was eminently possible that the US would not have entered the war, with out some other grievous provocation. The general feel on the street then was that the UK had suckered the US into the war, in which the US got nothing but a butcher's bill.
 
All of the above decisions and actions within the USA are logical and consistent with the political realities of the altered world power balance of this very different geopolitical world. ITTL there are far fewer drivers than OTL for the USA world dominant roll of the mid 20th century. IMHO this is not an Ameriscrew just a very well written ATL where America fails to always throw a double six. Compared to some real history TTL's America is all to plausible!!

I agree with these comments and don't believe this timeline is an Ameriscrew. America has always had a strong isolationist faction within the country. Without FDR running for a third term (probably the internationalists strongest voice), it is very likely that the isolationists would have controlled US foreign policy and kept it out of the war and without that experience the US may have continued to avoid becoming a major player on the international scene.
Similarly, race relations in the US have been focused around a small faction that wants to keep things the way there are, another small faction that wants to change them for the better, and a large majority in the middle that think things probably ought to change but don't want to rock the boat. In OTL, race relations were changed by a few key events made by courageous leaders. If the conditions surrounding those events are different and leaders decide to take an easier decision over a tougher one; it is easy to see difference decisions and paths being taken on race relations as well.
 
was manipulated into being a human weapon
Not really. She was trained in combat and the basics of intelligence work, true, but the ones who trained her never reallly sent her on missions. She was basically a free agent, and walked her own path.
And she had a good relation with all the people in the group that recruited her, besides Schultz, whom she never forgiven for that one mistake.
 
Honestly, my issue is, the US keeps rolling badly. Like, one or two times, I can buy, but they keep doing it. Literally what has the US done right in this TL so far? Name one thing that has actually gone over well, or at least not horrifically badly.
 
Honestly, my issue is, the US keeps rolling badly. Like, one or two times, I can buy, but they keep doing it. Literally what has the US done right in this TL so far? Name one thing that has actually gone over well, or at least not horrifically badly.

Mexican Intervention.

I'll grant you that it was an international affair, but it worked out well for the US even if they did have faults.

But let me ask you instead, how could the US have done well? I mean consider the situation, really consider it. The US avoided WW2, which in turn continued the economic slump of the 30's, which means no 50s/60s Golden period as the economy is still pulling itself back together.

The US has actively avoided foreign entanglements, so no successful foreign policy wins.

No Nazi Germany, so a lot of the brain power that the US drew upon isn't there.

So you have a US with a worse economy, worse international reputation and a brain deficit from OTL. The fact that it hasn't imploded in a civil war from the simmering social issues that haven't been even close to fixed is probably a Wank if anything.
 

Paternas

Donor
But let me ask you instead, how could the US have done well? I mean consider the situation, really consider it. The US avoided WW2, which in turn continued the economic slump of the 30's, which means no 50s/60s Golden period as the economy is still pulling itself back together.
I think there was a discussion in the Blunted Sickle thread about this very topic. The conclusion was that the US economy would do better without the loss of life, switch of consumer factories to war production and the disruption to global trade. The US market would however be much more inward focused. I don't see why this shouldn't be the case here. A lower proportion of US exports to the world market might be compensated for by a larger domestic market and the world economy being larger with the Soviet block removed.
 
...SNIP...

So you have a US with a worse economy, worse international reputation and a brain deficit from OTL. The fact that it hasn't imploded in a civil war from the simmering social issues that haven't been even close to fixed is probably a Wank if anything.

Hasn't imploded in a Civil War YET! There's a reason that Truman redeployed the stronger forces of the US military out of the south. I haven't seen anything in the way of lessening tensions. Worse, NASA's launch facilities are in the south--have to be.
 
I think there was a discussion in the Blunted Sickle thread about this very topic. The conclusion was that the US economy would do better without the loss of life, switch of consumer factories to war production and the disruption to global trade. The US market would however be much more inward focused. I don't see why this shouldn't be the case here. A lower proportion of US exports to the world market might be compensated for by a larger domestic market and the world economy being larger with the Soviet block removed.

I mean that is an angle you could take, and it isn't even a bad take, I just don't see it happening without a third term for FDR to oversee the New Deal and the literal billions of dollars pumped into the economy during and after the war.

Hell, the educational standard of the workforce alone is going to be on average lower due to a lack of the GI bill.
 
Part 84, Chapter 1293
Chapter One Thousand Two Hundred Ninety-Three


7th October 1958

Mitte, Berlin

Looking at the photographs, Emil saw that Zella was laughing and smiling as she flirted with a couple of the boys in the in the Rock & Roll band that she had gone to see the previous Saturday night. The troubling aspect was that Zella looked a lot happier in the photographs than she had in a long time, at home anyway.

While the investigation had uncovered no connection between Zella and the man who had stumbled in front of her on her motorcycle, it had uncovered a thing or three about Zella herself.

The reason why the police had been on the scene so fast was because one patrol car was responding to the fight that had been reported and the other had been about to pull Zella over for reckless driving. While the motorcycle could be repaired, Maria was not inclined to pay for it. And she had told Emil that he wasn’t going to give her the money either or help Zella make those repairs in the garage. If Zella wanted her motorcycle back, she would have to come up with the money on her own. As a student with no real skillset, even if Zella found a place that would give her a job it would take her a long time to raise that sort of money. Emil knew that Maria was doing that on purpose, every time Zella walked past the garage, she saw the Ducati scraped up, missing parts and the broken chain on the floor. It was supposed to remind her of the consequences of being irresponsible.

The investigation had also backtracked Zella’s movements to the V8 Club. Aside from a few people in the BND and obviously Emil himself, no one knew that John Elis kept careful tabs on who entered his nightclub, the mirror that ran the length of the back of the room was one-way glass. If someone pinged John’s well-honed instinct for self-preservation he would step into the back room and make further plans. The camera was just one of his tools. Because Emil was one of only three people in Germany who knew John’s real name, the American was more than happy to keep tabs on who Zella spoke with in order to stay in Emil’s good graces. Admiral von Schmidt had told Emil that explosive little secret when he retired, the other person was the Admiral’s daughter Sarah. She basically managed the day to day operations of the club these days and apparently had secrets of her own that she didn’t want out in circulation.

“Their names are Paul and George, both are relatively harmless” John said, “The other guitarist in the band is a bit of a bastard. He fancies himself the brooding artist type. If your girl had been talking to him, I would have had sorted that out. The drummer has a girlfriend and they were all over each other in one of the booths, I did have to sort that out.”

Emil did find that amusing. John did have rules, a big one was that the only show was the one on the stage.

“What else do you know about these people?” Emil asked.

“Up and coming band out of England, which is a nice way of saying they were playing in a garage last week. Johnny and the Moondogs originally, now just the Moondogs” John replied, “They are still perfecting their sound. They keep trying to sound like Elvis Presley’s band and it comes off like a parody act.”

“I take it that their singer doesn’t have that sort of voice?” Emil asked.

“Singers, plural and no” John answered, “When they try to sing in harmony in more of a Pop based sound, they aren’t half bad.”

“Any idea what they were talking about after the show?”

“Art and themselves, mostly” John replied, “Young men far from home, and a pretty girl willing to listen to them. They were just lucky that Zella wasn’t running a con on them, because she could have cleaned them out and they would have thanked her for it.”

John just shrugged as if to say; What can you do?

Emil wasn’t exactly thrilled to hear that. All of Maria’s complaints lately about Zella seemed to revolve around the idea that she was too much like Emil for comfort. He remembered his own behavior towards women before he had met Maria. While he had never “Had a girl in every port” the way that Lang had used to joke before Emil would remind him that he wasn’t in the Navy. Emil didn’t want to think about what might happen if Zella ever moved in that direction.

“How is Zella doing?” John asked, “I heard about what happened, that’s a rough thing to have happen to anyone and she’s a good kid.”

“She’ll be fine” Emil said, knowing that currently Zella was more upset by her current predicament at home as opposed to what had happened a few days earlier.

“Glad to hear” John replied.

Something that had happened before the present mess was that Zella had mentioned that she had felt isolated from her friends because they were moving ahead with their lives. Perhaps it would be a good idea if Zella followed her friends' example. Though exactly how to get her to do that was something he wasn’t sure how to accomplish.
 
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The fact that the United States successfully launched a man in to space is a good sign that not everything is going bad.
The 1958 midterms is coming up fast and this may be the most pivotal midterm elections since 1946.
It has 14 years since the Atlanta Massacre and for years there has been in the South violence directed against the African-American population which has all but officially been sanctioned by local and state officials and law enforcement.
Without the OTL level of spending by the federal government and the Taft-Hartley Labor Act that allowed for companies to open non-union factories, the South is an economic basket case and there should be a rising tide of discontent in the South right now as they see people in other parts of the country are doing much better than they are.
 
Chapter One Thousand Two Hundred Ninety-Three
Something that had happened before the present mess was that Zella had mentioned that she had felt isolated from her friends because they were moving ahead with their lives. Perhaps it would be a good idea if Zella followed her friends' example. Though exactly how to get her to do that was something he wasn’t sure how to accomplish.

Well he could talk to John and see if Sara or him have anything she might work on in the club or related businesses. Might be a way to get her interested in the business side of the club scene.
 
I think Zella will find herself in the music industry in one form or another.

Dillenger has mentioned "it was a good thing she wasn't running a con", makes it sound like she has a sharp mind, I'm thinking either Promoter, manager or music journalist. The latter one could be a bridge to either of the other, her touch typing skills have been honed my endless summers of punishment by Maria for one indescretion or another, and would help bring her Mother back on side.

The outside chance is that Zella becomes TTL's Lulu.
 
John Ellis is a ticking time bomb for Germany, the fact that he has basically led an exemplary and productive life does in no way make up for the fact that he is John Dillinger.
By now John Dillinger is a folk hero to the American public for being the only person to successfully escape from Alcatraz but the fact that he has been living in Germany all these years with tacit approval from the Germans is not going to play well in Peoria.
For all the mistakes that the United States has made ITTL, it has never harbored a "Mad Dog Cop Killer" and if the United States finds out that this was the case with Germany, it will cause a major rift.
Sarah von Schmidt should have a little talk with her father about the contents of a certain Berlin safe deposit box and determine whether or not it should get published if so and when.
 
John Ellis is a ticking time bomb for Germany, the fact that he has basically led an exemplary and productive life does in no way make up for the fact that he is John Dillinger.
By now John Dillinger is a folk hero to the American public for being the only person to successfully escape from Alcatraz but the fact that he has been living in Germany all these years with tacit approval from the Germans is not going to play well in Peoria.
For all the mistakes that the United States has made ITTL, it has never harbored a "Mad Dog Cop Killer" and if the United States finds out that this was the case with Germany, it will cause a major rift.
Sarah von Schmidt should have a little talk with her father about the contents of a certain Berlin safe deposit box and determine whether or not it should get published if so and when.
The rift is already there.
The US did imprison what amounts to a backchannel courier, had her tortured, and refused to release her, and had done this very nearly publicly. And received and protected Albert Speer who gave them what military secrets he knew, again, nearly publicly. And the Germans did much worse in espionage, infiltration and sabotage (despite being more discrete). They probably care very little right now in stepping on each others' toes, as long as it's not really in the open, and it's not high level enough to create serious tensions. Dillinger is small potatoes compared to that.
Also, Dillinger is probably old news by now, and any potential good will they (Germany) might incur by turning him in would be overweighted by the implied message to other intelligence assets that they would be thrown to the sharks if it's somewhat convenient.
 
John Ellis is a ticking time bomb for Germany, the fact that he has basically led an exemplary and productive life does in no way make up for the fact that he is John Dillinger.

By now John Dillinger is a folk hero to the American public for being the only person to successfully escape from Alcatraz but the fact that he has been living in Germany all these years with tacit approval from the Germans is not going to play well in Peoria.
For all the mistakes that the United States has made ITTL, it has never harbored a "Mad Dog Cop Killer" and if the United States finds out that this was the case with Germany, it will cause a major rift.
Sarah von Schmidt should have a little talk with her father about the contents of a certain Berlin safe deposit box and determine whether or not it should get published if so and when.
You are NOT THINKING.

First Rule of Intelligence :You do NOT sell your Agents, regardless of if they are a saint or a depraved satyr.

Second : Yeah, and the "Banana Wars" had a noble reason, I'm sure..... Your Complaint about contracting and protecting an US Criminal, falls rather short considering the hijinks of the last years. Does the Argentinian Coup Clusterfuck reminds you of something?

Moreover, in a level, Dillinger provided the Abwehr with critical knowledge of the US society, and moreover, was pivotal in the design of the training so individuals like Kat could slip unnoticed into the US Society.

So the FBI may go braying to the end of time, but the end result will be the same, likely only revealed when they are lowering his coffin to his tomb in an Irish style Funeral.

John Dillinger.... Most Wanted Bandit, Pub Owner, Modern Music Supporter, Spy Trainer... And the Man who Escaped From the Rock And Never Was Caught.

There would be Outrage, true, but the knowledge of this would propel his already iconic reputation into the levels of full US Legend, an example that every Underworld individual would dream of match.....
 
US State Department: "YOU'VE BEEN HIDING JOHN DILLENGER!! HOW DARE YOU!!! HE'S A WANTED FELON THIS IS UTTERLY UNACCEPTABLE"!!
German Foreign Minister: "Who"?
US State Department:"..."
 
I am not making myself clear, the United States is not blameless but there is a big difference between acting stupidly with what happened to Asia and getting called out rightfully for it and knowingly harboring a wanted fugitive who has killed law enforcement officers.
There is also a difference if hypothetically John Dillinger had lived next door to you for all these years quietly and was a good neighbor and you didn't know it and a foreign country knowingly for whatever reasons that they want to justify it keeping his presence in their country quiet, the former makes a good story to tell everybody that "John Dillinger lived next door to me for all these years and nobody knew who he was" the latter is something that the American people will not like.
What I am trying to say is that all due care should be taken that when there inevitable death of John Ellis happens, that the fact that he was John Dillinger should go in to the grave with him.
There is probably a lot of stories about the legend of John Dillinger that has become folklore about his escape and what he may be doing today, but if the reality gets out then there is going to be a much different reaction to this.
 
I am not making myself clear, the United States is not blameless but there is a big difference between acting stupidly with what happened to Asia and getting called out rightfully for it and knowingly harboring a wanted fugitive who has killed law enforcement officers.
There is also a difference if hypothetically John Dillinger had lived next door to you for all these years quietly and was a good neighbor and you didn't know it and a foreign country knowingly for whatever reasons that they want to justify it keeping his presence in their country quiet, the former makes a good story to tell everybody that "John Dillinger lived next door to me for all these years and nobody knew who he was" the latter is something that the American people will not like.
What I am trying to say is that all due care should be taken that when there inevitable death of John Ellis happens, that the fact that he was John Dillinger should go in to the grave with him.
There is probably a lot of stories about the legend of John Dillinger that has become folklore about his escape and what he may be doing today, but if the reality gets out then there is going to be a much different reaction to this.

Well the bigger stupid thing is if the US figures out who he is and decides to send their own covert agent to snatch and grab him or just assassinate him.
 
So instead of an american saying

"John Dillinger lived next door to me for all these years and nobody knew who he was"

You will have an german shrug and say

"The man who owned a pub around the corner for all these years, was an american criminal?
Really?! Well, at least he always had a good bottle of beer and good music"
 
This is a case that the best thing for all parties involved is to let sleeping dogs lie, not to turn over any rocks and turn a blind eye.
It is too late for Germany to turn Dillinger over to the Americans and it doesn't do anything good for the United States to get upset about it and as long as the American and German people don't know about it then there is no problems.
 
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