Say the soviets won the Soviet-Afghan war in 1985. What effects would this have in the wider world?
Soviet Afghanistan: 1984
- Thread starter The_Last_Plantagenet
- Start date
Lord Protector
Banned
No mujahadeen in afghanistan would weaken islamic extremism.
Al Quaeeda would have 1 less safe haven and the US would avoid 1 great clusterfuck,maybe without afghanistan they would actually be forced deal with the saudis instead of distracting the population with the endless side shows(OBL was a saudi with loads of saudi money,as were the hijackers of 9/11,sure the taliban housed them but their position on the matter was hardly strange given he was their guest and was paying them well).
The soviets might last longer as well without the psychological strain of the prolonged war.
Al Quaeeda would have 1 less safe haven and the US would avoid 1 great clusterfuck,maybe without afghanistan they would actually be forced deal with the saudis instead of distracting the population with the endless side shows(OBL was a saudi with loads of saudi money,as were the hijackers of 9/11,sure the taliban housed them but their position on the matter was hardly strange given he was their guest and was paying them well).
The soviets might last longer as well without the psychological strain of the prolonged war.
Yeh I've read that the war was a major contributor to the soviet fall, so if they take Afghanistan when do we reckon the USSR would fall? (If it does at all)
Depends on how and why they win. Two options. Either military is given tools required or Soviet leadership is more stable. Latter is trickier because it depends on who takes over. It's not going to be Gorby so he can be either conservative or reformer. If it's military victory thenRed army get some prestige boost, as does Soviet Union. OTOH they'd suffer some problems with such naked agression and would damage their standing in soe palces.
I was thinking it would be a change of leadership, perhaps someone as hard and ruthless as Stalin? I know it's gonna be pretty hard to find this individual but they must exist, mustn't they?
Lord Protector
Banned
Easiest way is to mobilise the full force of the red army to do the job and literally steamroll afghanistan going from town to town and village to village rooting out any and all oposition.
The taliban would be crushed very quickly with no way to attacking behind secured front lines which would be falling straight on top of them.
Such a display could also have interesting effects on the soviets other neighbours,maybe such a victory makes the soviets more confident and lets them slag off on the arms race enough for their economy to survive.
The taliban would be crushed very quickly with no way to attacking behind secured front lines which would be falling straight on top of them.
Such a display could also have interesting effects on the soviets other neighbours,maybe such a victory makes the soviets more confident and lets them slag off on the arms race enough for their economy to survive.
Lord Protector
Banned
If they bothered to literally uproot the country i dont see why not.
And not really a blitzkrieg,more like a sweep.
Blitzkrieg tries to aim for weakspots to exploit and force the enemy to surrender,this would literally dig them out and crush them along the whole lenght of the country with no regard for civilian casualties.
Any tribe that isnt convincingly pro soviet and open to the light of socialism would be crushed and dispersed to siberia.
And not really a blitzkrieg,more like a sweep.
Blitzkrieg tries to aim for weakspots to exploit and force the enemy to surrender,this would literally dig them out and crush them along the whole lenght of the country with no regard for civilian casualties.
Any tribe that isnt convincingly pro soviet and open to the light of socialism would be crushed and dispersed to siberia.
I doubt they would annex the place,they will probably just set up another satellite state/new member for the Warsaw Pact.
Lord Protector
Banned
Hard to say,apart from afghanistan everyone else was settled,iran is fanatical,pakistan had nukes,not many options.
Hmmm, well say they invade Pakistan
Pakistan threatens nukes
Would America get involved to stop the MAD?
Would this begin a bridge between the U.S. And the USSR?
What could happen?
Pakistan threatens nukes
Would America get involved to stop the MAD?
Would this begin a bridge between the U.S. And the USSR?
What could happen?
Lord Protector
Banned
Why would the soviets do that?
They were profiting from the indian-pakistan split by doing bussiness with both sides.
India and pakistan are basically a closed system of mutual suspition and attention,the soviets are better off leaving them to focus on each other and effectively leave their southern front compleatly safe from to much foreign meddling,pakistan isnt stupid enough to cause unrest in afghanistan if the soviets had just steamrolled it.
They were profiting from the indian-pakistan split by doing bussiness with both sides.
India and pakistan are basically a closed system of mutual suspition and attention,the soviets are better off leaving them to focus on each other and effectively leave their southern front compleatly safe from to much foreign meddling,pakistan isnt stupid enough to cause unrest in afghanistan if the soviets had just steamrolled it.
Did Pakistan have nukes in the 80s? I thought they detonated their first weapon in 1998, but it's also my understanding they had the capacity for quite a while before, but I don't know the exact timeline.
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
Nope. The purpose of the Invasion was to restore control to the DRA, so unless they want to be annexed, the Soviet's won't push it. Though the uberblitz, the Red Army will remain to mop anything up.
But, in the wake of a Soviet Victory, the Soviets will believe that they can face any challenge. Like how we talk about how America winning Vietnam would cause them to go delirious and over estimate how great they are, the same will happen to the SU. Intervention in any Communist states that begin to violently collapse will become common, a likely candidate being Romania (Even if the victory butterfly's away the fall of communism, Romania will still go down. Hard).
They did that. In 1980. Problem was keeping country pacified after.
If the USSR teams up with India they could perhaps split the territory between them both, bringing India closer to Moscow and giving the soviets a warm water port
It's been said that the Soviets could have "won" the Afghanistan War if they had been economically & politically strong enough to keep a relatively small number troops in the country indefinitely (like the United States is doing now by leaving 10,000 troops in the country until at least the mid 2020s). There would still be terrorism and armed resistance, but the insurgency wouldn't be powerful enough to be a serious military threat.