South Africa: Part of the Axis of Evil. How would George W Bush deal with Apartheid South Africa?
- Thread starter Declan
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I don't think this is the case and I believe you're overthinking this. The ANC and the Umkhonto we Sizwe had quite a few leaders that were also part of the the South African Communist Party(eg Chris Hani). Amidst the Col War, they found natural allies in the communist world. When the cold war did end, many countries and movements dropped communism as their ideology. However for quite a few of them, they retained their cold war era international alignments. The ANC is an example of this; the cadres were taught the USSR was an ally, so even though both Russia and themselves have discarded socialism, they maintain a friendship.
Not true. At all. Look at the Comprehensive anti-Apartheid act. This particular piece of legislation put sanctions on SA was passed by the Congress only to be vetoed by Reagan; the Congress then overrode it. If you look at the vote breakdown on the override, you'd find that, in fact, the majority of Republicans voted to override the veto. This is not mentioning how many voted for it initially but didn't want to embarrass Reagan. For example, then Republican Senate Bob Dole voted for it the first time(but voted against the veto). It passed the House on a voice vote. Senator Richard Lugar, a longtime member of the foreign affairs committee(person who woul definitely helped craft any future policy towards SA) was among the most vocal supporters of it. Looking at future Republican leaders, both Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott were in the House at the time when it was voted on, so both tacitly supported it. Gingrich even voted in favour of the veto override.
And you must remember this was in 1986. As time passes, US public opinion will only get worse on South Africa. Likewise, the GOP would grow increasingly intolerant of any pro-South Africa voices.
Big difference. Israel, since inception, was a strategic ally in the Middle East. South Africa, not so much.
For every pro-South Africa lobbyist, you'd find a dozen anti-South Africa lobbyists. Not mentioning you'd have the party leadership pushing down.
That much is true. But nonetheless, the regimes there warmed relations with the West, the US. I doubt the US would just sit idly by knowing that the region is one war away from nuclear from nuclear catastrophe. Secondly, Angola and Mozambique(but more so the former because of its oil reserves) can leverage the US into taking a firmer interest in South Africa as a condition of warming relationa
But the UK still wouldn't want a member of the Commonwealth constantly existing under the direct threat of nuclear war with its neighbour.
Assuming this to be true, the domestic reasons would still cause many (including Bush's speechwriters as pointed earlier) to view South Africa in the same light as North Korea.
Regarding Namibia, any government that would try to power through with Apartheid is very unlikely to withdraw from Namibia as a matter of pride in addition to protecting the whites there. South Africa is still in Namibia in this timelines as of the early 2000s.
Found nothing to my knowledge when the rest would become independent. The South African government would try their best to pump up the Bantustans even more to showcase to the rest of the world that the government is trying to improve the lives of blacks. I can imagine this would include allowing some of these governments to legally own some of the mines in which their citizens worked. I can even imagine the government going as far as to expand the bantustan borders.
They would probably stop existing as military force soon after the US and the wider west warms up to Mozambique, using the country as bulwark against Apartheid. Which would include giving the Mozambqiue government arms to fight what would have been pro US rebels.
Except Verwoerd wouldn't do larger Bantustans, giving up white farmland to blacks?
Had he lived, maybe. It was the United Party who wanted one South Africa, indivisable. I'm no supporter of separate development, but I think, HV understood you couldn't have that and cheap labor at the same time.
In Apartheid's Friends: The Rise and Fall of South Africa's Secret Service by James Sanders there is speculation that that was exactly Verwoerd's aim. He had apparently on partitioning SA more fully and creating more contiguous and viable bantustans which was opposed by most of the NP, and that is why Tsafendas was recruited to kill him. Take from that what you will.
Also, I am open to correction, but I do believe that white property was occasionally expropriated (with compensation) to give bantustans territory, so it wouldn't be without precedent.
That's a fairly wild conspiracy 😜
My understanding too, especially in Boputhatswana. It would have needed to be on a hugely greater scale though.
Jappie Basson's National Union party wanted to coopt the Coloured, more than Botha did, and go forth with a full-fledged partition.