Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

ferdi254- East Germany is a mess and there is no doubt about that, the economy is destroyed and the food is being parceled out by the government. As for the population of East Germany they doubtlessly hate the people running their government and of course the Soviet Union. But at the same time the Stazi and the KGB went through the survivors of the revolt and arrested anyone they felt was a threat the survivors are not going to feel particularly brave right now. Also the Soviet Union can use the troops from the final wave of mobilization or the class D divisions as security troops. This kind of job would be right up their ally.

As for Poland the leaders of Solidarity and a lot of the hard core followers are still in prison. Also more class D division will be given the job of internal security. So at least initially the people of Poland will like as not keep their heads down. They watch Solidarity get crushed just a few years before and East Germany this summer. The people of Poland would probably no do anything unless it looks like the Soviet Union is losing the war. But with censorship that might take a couple of weeks for word to trickle through to the people of Poland. So if the war is say lost in the third week of the war, no serious problem with the population taking a stand against the Soviet Union and its puppet states for a couple of more weeks.

True the border is heavily fortified to keep people from sneaking out. But the Border Guards had to be able to get to the frontiers so there are roads going right up to the border. Roads that tanks can move on. Also they had to keep the trees, brush and even grass from getting to tall in the death zone so to do that they had to have service roads going through the minefields and i have seen diagrams to that effect. Also the minefields are between thirty and seventy meters across and made up antipersonal mines.

The Soviet Union could have had the Border Guard laying the mines make maps of the minefields indicating the types of mines used and how they could be set off. One thing i notice that remote detonation was an option so depending on how close the mines were laid together you might be able to blow a hole through the minefield. The Soviet Union might also have ordered the border guards to leave sections of the minefields with fewer mines in some locations or even paths to allow tanks to move through. The fortification were there but that does not mean the military did not have plans in place to move through the mines. Before the fighting stated the Soviet High command could send people though the service roads to take out the fences on the far side of the minefield while doing the same on the GDR side of the border. Then the watching troops have to decide the take pot shots at the troops removing the minefields or call their superiors. Who would have to call their superiors and on and on until the top echelons of the Governments of the member nations of NATO to get permission to shoot.

The trench's that block the movement of vehicle to the border could have small premade bridges that could be placed to allow the movement of tanks across the border. Also every battalion at least a dozertank and regiments have engineering units to sweep mines and so do the division. There are a lot more than seventeen places to cross the border and in fact i would think that unless the terrain itself was bad the average Soviet Regiment would be though those and fortifications and minefields in less than an hour. Any Soviet attack plan would not have allow the defenses built to keep people in would keep them in to.
 
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15/14 Jul M-20 10am Wellington New Zealand
The press was going wild the election had not given any of the parties the numbers necessary to form a government without making a deal with another party. Speculation was going wild, Jones had made it clear that he felt that neither Muldoon or Lange should be the next Prime Minister. He was opposed to Muldoon due to the fact that Muldoon was definitely opposed to Jones reforms. As for the Labor party some were in favor of Jones reforms, but Jones was opposed to having Lange as prime minister because of his attitude toward Reagan and the Soviet Union. Now would the National Party replace Muldoon with someone acceptable to Jones or would the Labor party remove Lange because of the lost election. None of the press knew what was going to happen and they could only guess what would happen.

But the defeat of the Labor Party was noted across the world. With the ongoing crisis no one had really paid attention to the election. But the defeat of the Labor Party was noted across the world by the leaders of the Western alliance. The defeat of a party that was going to abandon the Western Alliance was excellent news. It was a show of solidarity to west and many in the press and among the members of the antiwar movement called it a defeat for the forces of peace. The Soviet Union portrayed the election as a victory for Western Imperialism. The Nonaligned Nations were quick to point out that if the Soviet Union had agreed to negotiate with the Americans Lange would have won. Thus, Soviet Union needed to agree to negotiate an end to the crisis.

The American ambassador sent a message to Prime Minister Muldoon asking for permission to dock Task Force 25.5 dock resupply and maybe have a little liberty. Prime Minister Muldoon was happy to agree to the resupply. Orders were sent to Devonport Naval Base informing it that three nuclear powered cruisers would be arriving tomorrow morning. The ships would be resupplied and the crews given a little liberty before going back out to sea.

With the loss of the election and the knowledge that he would soon not be the Prime Minister of New Zealand was in a way liberating. Instead of having to worry about public opinion since he knew he was on his way out he could do as he pleased. He could tell the world that New Zealand was still supporting the ANZUS alliance. He was hoping that the Lange leader of the Labor Party would make some comment that damaged the party. He was hoping that any damage caused to the Labor Party, might force the New Zealand Party to make a deal with the National Party. The goal was that if he was not running the party at least a member of the Nationalist Party would be in charge.

10am Townsville
The RAN showed up at various businesses placing large orders for meat and other foodstuffs with instructions to have the orders ready to go the next day, so that the orders could be delivered the next day.
12noon Pusan South Korea
The ships that had carried the equipment in from Diego Garcia were now headed south to Hong Kong. Their mission was to pick up the Ghurka brigades equipment and bring that equipment to South Korea while the troops were being ferried on both Korean and Japanese Airliners leased for the mission.


10am Moscow Soviet Naval Headquarter A complicated plan had been ordered carried out, every ship not necessary for the defense of the Shortland Islands were to be ordered home. But that was a cover for the main plan, once the convoy was far enough out the supply ship for the Frunze with three other ships two Kotlin class destroyers and a tanker to support the destroyers would break off from the convoy. The group of four ships would move past the Solomon’s and when the four ships were passed the convoy the supply ship for the Frunze would had for a rendezvous with the Frunze.

While the other three ships were to move to a location off the trade routes in the Polynesia and wait for the war to start then the three ships would raid shipping and islands in Polynesia. Or even attack the supply lines between the United States and Hawaii. The idea was to divert the attention of the West from the main battle areas. The two destroyers were not up to modern warfare but as commercial raiders they could possibly force the Americans to divert front line warships to take on the two destroyers. While the Frunze with her supply ship following would headed in another direction for a more important mission. The convoy was to leave as soon as possible.


At the same time the two Victors were also going to leave at the same time. Their mission was two-fold. First to cover the escape of the Frunze’s supply ship, it was believed that one possibly two American Nuclear submarines was stationed to the north of Bougainville. When the four ships broke from the convoy the Victors were to interfere with any attempts by American submarines to follow the four ships. Once that had been accomplished the two submarines were double back and head south into the Coral Sea and then turn east also to rendezvous with the Frunze. That is once the two subs were sure, that the ships were not being followed.

9AM Johannesburg Alan arrived at worked and he immediately went to Jakes office and he told Jake about the talk and the bit of information that Conrad had given him about the supply ship for submarines now sitting in the port of Lobito. He informed Jake that at least one submarine had already been resupplied. That news had Jake on the phone to the Ambassador and in just a few minutes the Ambassador, Jake, Alan and the senior naval attaché were all in the room. The CIA personal were conspicuously absent, they had a habit of annoying the Ambassador so keeping them out of the loop was deemed essential. The Ambassador being an ex-correspondent he was not particularly enamored with the CIA personal currently serving in the embassy. So, he readily went along with the idea, he commented that if they would have been told they would have had a fit and bitched to the NIS about telling the candy asses in the State Department before them. It would only get Conrad in trouble and he just might turn out to be a good source of information.

The news that the MPLA was allowing the Soviet Union to base a supply ship for their submarine did not go down well with anyone in the room. The naval attaches were totally upset since that supply ship was almost invulnerable to attack unless a carrier of some type or maybe a seal team could be brought south to launch an attack on the ship. The seal team would be doing the op would be easier to arrange but whether they could get a sub to bring the team in or maybe entering Angola through Namibia. But Jake pointed out that since the South Africans wanted to keep us in the dark about the situation. It might upset them to find out that we knew and it could go hard on Conrad if they put two and two together.

Then the Ambassador pointed out that the United States did not want to be seen openly cooperating with South Africa in military operations. The reaction of the rest of Africa would be negative. The Naval attaché could see the Ambassadors point, that kind of cooperation could backfire against the United States with the rest of Africa. Once the meeting was over a message went to State Department with the bad news.
 

ferdi254

Banned
My point was that only 8 roads cross the border. Of course tanks can attack at more places, but how do you get food, fuel and ammunition across the border? And you cannot have your pioneers start building roads over because they will be needed to lay bridges and clear other obstacles (and repair those pesky 6 ways to get supply to the Northern front).

One more point concerning battle readiness. If you send tanks into training a couple of those will go tech. No problem for the NATO, as they sit just next to the factories plus can get food and fuel for training troops out of the country.

The WP has two bad alternatives. Either they train their troops meaning less battleready heavy equipment (factories for spares are far away and you already need to ship food and fuel all the way across Poland and the GDR) or you keep the battlereadiness at the already wanked 80% but that means, no training.

For airborne troops. I am not aware that any army has ever even tried to make an airborne landing while the enemy airforce was still up in full force. And the FRG was not the GDR. The GDR had an abysmal street system (even though compared to Poland and USSR it was gold standard) so simply blocking 6 roads with air bombardement (a not too difficult task for the NATO) would leave most of the WP attacking forces without supply or seriously less supply.

Trying to seriously hamper logistics on the FRG side of the border against a fully mobilized Bundeswehr would be a waste of those troops anyway. Because the road network was much tighter and with a few exceptions there was always a good way around. How many points can one capture and hold with one division of airborne troops? Using airborne troops would only make sense in a market gardenlike scenario but we all know what happened to those airborne troops that encountered heavy enemy units.

And with the fully mobilized NATO there will be decent sized troops to protect important bridges (competent NATO planning assumed of course). Hamburg could be a point here but taking Hamburg with what? One division? And to block the Elbe you would need to capture two points in Hamburg 10 km apart from each other and in peacetime the Bundeswehr alone had 110.000 soldiers in and directly next to Hamburg
 
As for the eight roads the solution is simple, I ran the plan by my roommate and exmarine. Military trucks are designed to operate of road. So you drive on an East German road to the border go cross country to the nearest road on the West German side of the border. You may have to drive four or five miles and yes the truck will have to go slower while going cross country but it can be done. I grew up on a farm, even civilian farm trucks had decent off road capacity. Depending on the weather you may or may not have to may problems. If it rains then things will slow down, there will be muck but NATO's air units will not be able operate a full capacity. If it stays dry then you will have clouds dust ground into a powder finer than flour and the possibility of clouds of dust could attract the attention of NATO aircraft. Logistics specialist on both sides figured that enough of the supplies would get through to carry out the Soviet Armies advance.

The Soviet Unions idea of proper training in wartime or prewartime is very elastic. Also most of the units will be using tanks that have been in storage for decades those troops will not see the good stuff.

Well the Soviet Airborne units can also travel by helicopter and you don't go after bridges you go after villages locate in or near crossroads and dig in. Soviet troops had a well known ability to dig in and then hold a defensive positions for far longer than anyone else would have thought possible. They just make you come in and dig them out one building at a time. Also if you divert artillery units or armored units to help did them out they are being diverted from the frontlines and that helps the Soviet Army. Remember divisional size drops are not what you should worry about. But a battalion of airborne troops brought in by helicopter or by transport plane while the Soviet Air Force takes temporary control of the sky in one area for an hour or two would be a problem. Even short distance inside the NATO frontlines could be disastrous especially if the reinforcing are block from joining in the battle on the frontline.

By the way it the territorial army that handles rear area security. But those units are not as combat ready of elite units. Properly place elite units can screw with your day no matter how inevitable their defeat is. Remember NATO high command put those rear area defense because they expected the Soviet Union would carry out the kind of attacks i am talking about.
 
A couple of points.
To go along with what Ferdi254 is saying, front line Units would certainly have vehicles capable of going through farmers fields and such. Even second line Units would have some capabilities. But beyond that, half of the second line and all of the third line Units would have road only capable trucks.

Just another little antidote.
After the fall of the GDR and unification, I was talking to a German (very) senior Officer. He had been talking to a former GDR Division commander.
The East Germans dreaded going to war, for several reasons. Not least of which was that they strongly suspected that they would be the lead elements in any invasion of the west, and would take, by far, the most casualties. And going to war against the west was just something they could not imagine. Very few East Germans enjoyed life in the WP, they were very jealous of those living in West Germany. The GDR Division commander suspected that he would have fewer than 50% of his authorized strength when they would be called up.
Case in point, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, NATO suspected it may be a feint, because all WP Units were placed on high alert. After 24 hours, he had 70% of his soldiers show up, and this was after the police and STASI had gone door to door.
Another issue the GDR Div commander said he had, was that he was authorized, and was supposed to maintain, three days of rations for each soldier, and enough fuel and ammunition for three days of intensive operations. The only thing he could keep at three days was tank and artillery ammunition. For some reason, fuel, rations and small arms ammunition kept disappearing from warehouses, even on secure bases! He estimated he had enough fuel to last for, maximum, 100 km if the fighting was heavy. He also, never, ever, had more than 70% of his tanks and artillery operational, even when they were delivered brand new, there were hordes of defects. Spare parts were few, and he had only 1 maintainer per 100 tanks.

Now, the GDR may have been an aberration, but somehow, I don't think the Polish Army and the Czech army were any better off. Either for morale or equipment. Nobody among the WP nations, with the exception of Russia, wanted to die for the greater glory of the Soviet Union.

Sorry for the long post, but maybe it will help you in continuing this amazing story!
 
RetiredCdntanker- No the post was is really not that long. I see you point about the various division types. But the Soviet Army did have separate logistics units. These units had trucks kept in storage the GDR and other units would be brought in from the Soviet Union. These units will have all the problems of all of the WARSAW Pact units in operation trucks, personal and spare parts. But in the first few days of the campaign the troops will get at least adequate supplies Between the logistics units the Warsaw Pact division with what ever stores they had brought with them will keep them supplied. But as the campaign goes on the supply situation will get worse. The supply lines will get longer and add on the attrition of the supply trucks from breakdowns and attacks on the supply columns. There are options that could be taken but i would rather not comment on those since part of the fun of the story is presenting the problem and then attempting to solve the problem.

To tell the truth i believe what the general said about the GDR Army supply problems and the disappearance of the spare parts, rations and fuel. But i do sort of wonder about the small arms ammunition disappearing. I would think the STASI would be going ballistic about the missing small arms ammunition. The problems with getting the troops to showup when recalled is also believable. Few of the WARSAW Pact troops will be wanting to die for the greater glory of the Soviet Union and I suspect a fair number of Russian troops would not be enthused about the idea. But I do feel that the Soviet Union will get about two weeks of decent fighting out of the troops. But i also believe the longer the war goes on the more unwilling the "allied troops" will be fight for the Soviet Union. Unless they think the Soviets are winning then they will fight on for longer but not that much longer.

Thank on the compliment, I try to use all the posts that are posted or at least keep them in mind when I write.
 
A logistic problem the Soviets, and many WP units will have is vehicle drivers. In the USA, and almost as much in NATO, most soldiers will have driving experience and in a pinch could be assistant drivers for trucks, even driving them if need be. Sure there will be issues but better than nothing. In the USSR & WP in 1982 most young men don't have driving experience or licenses, and likely have never been behind the wheel unless they were farmers and drove tractors. It is much easier to fleet up an civilian auto driver to drive a deuce and a half than it is to take a non-driver do do that with any level of safety.
 
1pm New Delhi The Russian ambassador to India had been invited over to the Prime Minister’s residence and while he was there Indira Ghandi quizzed him about the Politburos failure to accept mediation by India. She also made it quite clear that the world wanted peace and so far, it looked like the Soviet Union was not looking for peace. The ambassador did not have much to say, to say the wrong thing would further aggravate the current situation. But he did promise to inform Gromyko of her comments. He made sure that the message was sent and in this case the message was received and promptly sent forward. The recent problems with the Bougainville messages had made for the now made for a much more responsive bureaucracy.
2pm Moscow Gromyko read the message and then he looked again at the messages from Soviet Union’s Embassy to the UN. As well as from the various allies of the Soviet Union, they were under pressure. While most of those allies, where standing firm some were letting the Soviet Union know that they did not appreciate being on the wrong side of the current situation. The war mongering Americans should be catching hell not them. Gromyko frowned but for the moment he could do nothing. He fully expected that the situation would get worse before it got better.


10pm thirty miles to the north and east of Townsville
The HMAS Launceston picked up a radio message from the Portsmouth that she would remain submerged until 8am the next morning, then the Portsmouth would enter the Harbor of Townsville. Once informed the Captain of the Launceston sent a message letting everyone know that the Portsmouth would be in the Port of Townsville no later than 10am.

2pm Amsterdam
The Prime Minister stood up before the press and in a brief statement he announced that due to the refusal of the Soviet Union to take part in the coming negotiations. He announced that two classes of draftees were being called up for service and twice the normal number of draftees would be drafted. The announcement was also coupled with the comment if the crisis came an end only the normal number of draftees would be taken. The rest would be discharged from service. The press reaction was quite spectacular since no one had expected this decision from the Netherlands.


10am Winnipeg The offer of the two artillery battalions by the United States was put forward to PM and his cabinet. The offer was swiftly accepted. At the same time members of the Liberal government who were opposed to the current mobilization leaked information about the Soviet Union’s mobilization of it so called invisible divisions. They denounced the Prime Minister for concealing the Soviet Armies total mobilization had not had the impact that the Anti-war movement had hoped. While the press wailed, the NDP denounced the decision and the Peace movement promised more protests. The simple fact was that the bulk of the population expected their government conceal information from them. Especially information that scared the shit out of them. The other reaction was that the Soviet Mobilization had forced the current government to mobilize even more than it had planned. The consensus was that the Liberal Government was doing the best that is could in very difficult situation.

Also, in this case the Canadian government was doing what their allies had asked them to. So, you could blame Canada’s allies for the situation. The Conservatives were not complaining and that really did help the current government. The Conservative promised commentary when the election happened. But for the moment they would not engage in backstabbing the current Government during this crisis. This improved the opinion of the population of Canada toward the Conservatives. By not engaging in petty political one upmanship, they had shown that the Conservative Party was putting Canada ahead of their own political aspirations.

Noon Valcartier Quebec Col. Delacroix was a hard driver, but he was also a practical man, he had been up most of the night on civilian airliner thinking about what he was going to do. But when he arrived at the base the first thing he did was go to bed for a few hours. A little sleep would go a long way and the last thing he wanted to do was be punch drunk from lack of sleep when he took command of the brigade. First impression where lasting. Most of his officer’s, were from the militia and they would have a bit of a chip on their shoulders.

There was no lost love between the regular army and the militia. He had to work through those prejudices to form a combat fighting brigade in much to short of time and under conditions he considered to be marginal at best. He was going to tell them, that the quicker the various commands in this brigade learned to work together the better off they would be in combat. That this brigade did not have months or weeks to prepare but days at best. That he fully expected the brigade would be in Europe sometime in August. They also could be up to their neck in commies by the end of the month.

His second in Command was the Lieutenant Colonel of the Militia also a French Canadian. He was a little older than Henri. Samuel Caron had been assigned to Sector de l’Est headquarters before being assigned to the position as second in command of the new 3RD brigade. He was familiar with all of the militia units in this command, so he would be a real asset that is if the two men could work together. Col. Delacroix thought he had met the man before but given then again, he could not be sure.

Lt. Col. Caron was more than a little nervous, he been introduced to Col. Delacroix once when he had been part of an inspection team. At the time, Delacroix had been a captain and he had been a lieutenant at the time. But from what he had been told by other people Sector de l’Est that he was a hard driving commander who believed in training and training and more training. Which
considering what was happening was good thing. Caron already had some good news and some pretty good news. But he also had some bad news but not as much as he had expected.


Col Delacroix arrived at brigade headquarters, when he entered the headquarters the officers, NCO’s and enlisted all snapped to attention. He liked the crisp reaction, it made him feel like he was dealing with professionals. There was none of the slackness he had seen in all too many Militia units.

Lt. Col. Caron introduced himself, then senior officers of the newly formed brigade. With the introductions over, Col. Delacroix asked to speak to Lt. Col. Caron privately in his new office. When the two men were alone. Col. Delacroix smiled at Lt. Col. Caron, **You come well recommended and you have a high degree of knowledge about the various units assigned to the new brigade. I will be depending on you for that knowledge. **

Lt. Col. Caron, nodded his head and he replied, **Yes sir, Well let me be honest, I am not enthused about pushing this brigade through training as fast as it looks like NDHQ is planning. But I will do my best to get this new brigade into as good as shape as possible. **


Col. Delacroix nodded his head, **I do understand, and I do agree that the training is going to be crammed into too short of time. But at the same time, the Soviet Union has been putting every man and tank they had into the field. But the men they sending are older reservists and the armor and artillery could charitably be characterized as obsolete. They are going to put T-34’s back into combat in large numbers as well as other World War equipment. At first it was only the American military moving every man they had to Europe. The new fast RO/RO ships gave them the ability to cram a lot of equipment on very fast ships. So, they took advantage of the situation. You may not realize this but there are four more container ships and the Americans have been using those container ships to move a large amount of cargo to Europe. If those ships had been converted it would have been unreal watching the amount of equipment and cargo that could have been moved. **

**The movement of the 1st brigade was inevitable since it was organized and all it really needed was a tank regiment. The decision to mobilized, the spare tanks and creating a second armored tank squadron which allow the creation of a new tank regiment even if it was understrength. Then Soviet mobilized all those troops and NDHQ decided to put another tank regiment, by borrowing sixty M-60 from the Americans which stretched things a bit. But then the Germans offered the Leopard II and the government did not feel it could say no. So, NDHQ decide to organize two new tank regiments and for two new brigades around the new regiments. **

**I personally would have preferred that the new regiments would have been organized and sent to Europe to reinforce the 1st and the 4th brigades but that did not happen and now we have a tough job ahead of us. Putting a brigade together on short notice, as well as organizing a brand-new tank regiment that will be not be an easy task. We will not have any way near as much time as we need to put a properly organize and train the new tank regiment. But the situation is what it is. We will do what we can in the time we have to carry out the mission. I can tell you this if things don’t start changing and damn soon NATO will be at war. **


1 pm Norfolk The ships that had taken the 24th ID to Europe had arrived in the harbor. But now a delay would set in the railroads needed time to do necessary maintenance so the shipment of the 35th Infantry division would be delayed by a few days. That was not considered a major problem either since some of the ships that had taken the 24th to Europe needed some maintenance to

The decision was made to make the best of the situation by doing any necessary repairs on the ships as necessary. No one liked to admit that the military had pretty much tide up the railroads in an effort to move troops to Europe. Add on the decision to move division of troops to the Pacific as well as other necessary movement of men and materials. At the same time the movement of civilian cargo had been slowed down and that was having some economic effect on the United States.



New York The convoy was going take the 49th and 40th to Europe was going to have a massive escort. The Nimitz fresh out of refit supported by the British jump carrier the Ark Royal and a large number of escorts. This convoy had been prepared in the expectation of an attack by Soviet submarines. Now it looked less likely that would happen, but the convoy complete with its escort was still going to Europe despite all the talk of peace. This convoy would be a massive reminder that NATO was still sending reinforcements.

4pm Washington DC The Saturday afternoon Peace Protest was gathered in the park across from the White House. The peace protestors had a new idea. That to encourage the Soviet Union to come to the negotiations, Reagan should stop sending troops to Europe. That was a nonstarter with Reagan in responses to questions from the press he replied, **I will keep on sending troops to Europe as long as the Soviet Union is sending troops to Europe. To stop before we have an agreement would not be the right approach. It would only encourage the Soviet Union to engage in further aggressive actions. **

The peace movement did not agree and across the nation large numbers of people turned out for additional protests in other cities. The protesters were out in large numbers but the reality was that Ronald Reagan was still getting excellent numbers for his handling of the current crisis. He had in fact received a boost for accepting Indira Ghandi’s offer to mediate the current crisis.



As for the democratic party, they were busy getting ready for their convention that would be starting the next day. Mondale was going to be their man and Hart had been forced to face that reality that he was not going become the democratic presidential candidate. He had realized that if he carried out his threats of becoming a third-party candidate. He would be politically dead for the rest of his career so Hart had made the best decision he could. He was accepting that Mondale would win the nomination. But he was equally certain that Mondale would lose to Reagan.

As far as Mondale was concerned the crisis was all but over. With Indira Ghandi going all out for conference to end the crisis he was sure that the Soviet Union would in the end agree to attend the conference and the crisis would come to an end. Reagan would be a hero for standing firm and the Democratic Party could whine all it wanted about how it happened but to no avail. Reagan would have his second term and they would have to just grin and bear it. Not only that but the military would be able to point out several deficiencies in the military that needed funding to be taken care of. Hart could just see the military lining up with assorted budget requests that the Democratic party would cave on just to get past this election.

6 pm Shortland Island The convoy and submarines left all at the same time, while the Australian SAS force in the hills watched the ships leave with the two destroyers in escort and the convoy would sail to the north moving at about sixteen knots. While too the south the HMAS Onslow fresh from her refit to carry harpoon, missiles detected the departure but as per orders she remained silent so that she could surprise a soviet warship should hostilities came about. As per orders the convoy remained together until about ten pm when the four ships changed course and headed due east. The bulk of the ships were actually happy the idea that they were headed for home improved moral. Everyone on board the ships knew that in just ten days the convoy would arrived in Vladivostok.

Once the two Victors were sure that no American submarines had seen what had happened they turned south and began a high-speed movement. Now the question was how long it would take for the Americans to figure out what had happened. In just a few hours the Onslow would have the two Victors cruise by at high speed. It was then that the captain of the Onslow said to himself screw the orders and he sent a message about the two Victors. He knew something was up but he was not going to keep silent while the Red Navy was trying to pull a fast one. The Shortland base heard the message and they even had a good idea where the sub was. But once the Onslow finished with its message she slipped further out to sea. The Captain would put some distance between his sub and the Russians but he and his sub would be back.
 

ferdi254

Banned
It is always important to keep one thing in mind. NATO at that time was systematically overestimating the capabilities of the WP. For, as stated above very good reasons. Take one example. The Red Army had 7 airborne divisions. NATO planning was that most of this would be used in the opening moves to do just as Farmer suggested. Matter of fact is that the WP only had the planes and copters to move a bit more than one division at a time. Yes, no more. And that would only have meant one division on NATO territory if the loading areas were not attacked, the planes did not suffer and the landings were without opposition.

So take an optimal situation for an airborne brigade of the Red Army. Loading goes perfect. Red Air force gets all NATO units away, crossing the front nobody shoots at them and they catch a brigade commanded by an idiot who gets no warning and has the defenses set up very stupidly. Brigade lands, overwhelms defenders without any serious losses and digs in. It cannot get any better. Now Farmer, one thing that many people who have not been to Germany from the USA do regularly is to underestimate how densely populated this country and how tight the road network is. I challenge you to find any village in Western Germany (or small town up to 20 k inhabitants) which´s occupation would slow down NATO supplies and troops by more than 30 minutes. So simply let them wither on a vine is a perfect solution. And with one division max, we are talking what, 10 brigades, so 10 villages. Nasty but nothing that really endangers supply or troop movement.

Admittedly in the Fulda gap there were some villages that could be really nasty but that is exactly not the place to land any airborne troops.

In reality the logistics of NATO would largely go by Autobahn (hard to dig in there they do not go cross villages) by Bundestraße (many of which go around villages) and if one place is blocked by the very dense network of normal roads and of roads for fieldworks which were specifically built not only to move tractors but also to accommodate tanks and trucks.

Let´s make it more realistic. Loading troops goes 95% well, crossing the frontier will lose 5% of the copters as anybody will shoot at them, some will be shot down by NATO fighters and the place you want to conquer is defended by a brigade itself in good defense position with some 20mm from M113 covering the most likely landing places some manheld SAM in place and some mortars and machine guns overlooking the most likely advance paths. (Remember NATO was wrongly expecting 7 divisions and was defending for it and can easily defend the more important villages). So even if you can drive the defenders out of the town, you will have the remnants of a brigade, 25% of your copters lost and with what result? See above. And NATO can just pull the defenders of two or three villages together and start a counter attack. Not that this will be not nasty but it will not significantly slow down NATO.
 

ferdi254

Banned
I come back to logistics. Yes it might be that the WP will get enough supplies but only in the sense of the opening scene of “All quiet on the Western Front”. Already now just to keep the army in fighting spirit the WP will have to move 10.000 tons of food to the troops daily (only GDR). Unless the NATO is really stupid just by following this up they will know where the troops are and one by one trucks will go tech. Again I cannot imagine that the NATO will not do its best to get those 6 ways for supplies from Berlin to the front (oh and btw only 3 from Warsaw to Berlin) closed.

For the logistic across the frontier. Again, 8 roads only, easily destroyed. The roads to the inner border apart from those 8 (please remember, all the supply south of the Harz has only 5(!) roads to cross the mountains all of them in arty range of NATO troops) were not marked, carefully camouflaged and on purpose as winding as possible. And did not appear on maps. And if the WP starts clearing mines at A,B and C, what will the NATO do? Yes, of course, concentrate countermines, arty and antitanktroops at exactly those places. And make sure that the infrastructure behind is no use If taken (like all other btw).

Normally one big advantage of the attacker is that he can choose where to attack while the defender has to defend the whole line and so the attacker can have an initial superiority. This is not the case here.

And lest I forget, sorry, please explain, why a 4-5 km trip crossroads to supply whole tank armies is possible for the WP but blocking some villages would make any problem for the NATO. NATO had also cross country ability. We had the same points when it came to the disparity of your assessment that WP could make a 3:2 attack successful in the central front while the NATO could not attack with a 3:1 on the Bulgarian and the WP could block NATO units from moving into Austria while the NATO could not block the roads in the GDR.

Retiredtanker, seconding what you said. Here the Volksarmee does no longer exist but the Western Group of the Red Army had the same problems. 70% readiness was as good as it got, hardly any spares, alcoholism was rampant. The myth that the NATO has held up all the time about the WP is still running around but even the elite units in the Red Army were at an abysmal state in the middle of the 80´s. See the performance in Afghanistan.
 
One issue is going to be all those Germans living within 20-50km of the border. will they be told to evacuate, and if so when (this is a big move and politically the WP can spin this as preparation for a NATO attack). No matter what you're going to have lots of refugees on the roads when the WP attack begins and this will be a huge hassle for NATO - clogging the roads etc, and at least the German troops are going to get distracted protecting refugees when they should be doing something else. Of course those who stay behind deliberately or get caught before they can leave will be a real issue. "We know that half of the population of Schnitzeldorf is still there, but the Soviets have set up a logistics node there and there is a division HQ - we can take it out with an airstrike, but..." It is one thing to accept "collateral damage" on enemy territory, but wit your own citizens not so much.
 
ferdi454- Easily take out the supply network in East Germany. Any NATO air unit that even come close to the Inner Border will be dodging missiles and AAA. If you have any questions about that look what happened to the Israeli Air Force during Yom Kippur war. I can assure you that NATO took a long hard look at what happened. The WARSAW PACT will have an integrated air defense system that can and will inflict serious damage on the NATO Air units. So easily destroyed in not a phrase i would use for attacking Soviet supply lines.

Well as for using the airborne and air assault units they go in while the other units are launching an offensive. That is when you use airborne units to slow down reaction time of reinforcing units and supplies. Nothings worse than have a column arrive fifteen minutes to late to prevent the front lines from breaking. You miss the fact that nothing happens in isolation. These troops are no suppose to hold out indefinitely they to screw up the reaction time of reinforcing units. As for casualties are to be expected but you don't win wars without people dying.

As for clearing minefield in fifty location along the inner border. while you have frontline combat officers screaming for support as columns of soviet tanks headed toward you front lines. You prioritize, the tank column is the bigger threat it can break through the front line and the mine clearance operation is a less definitive threat.

You dismiss the concerns of the NATO leadership at the time. They could lose a war so they took these threats seriously because if they were wrong they could lose the war. Also the Soviet military leadership planned to carryout these kinds of attacks. They believed the attacks would work at least to one degree or another.
 
sloreck- Your right about the movement of refugees disrupting road movement and distracting troops from their missions. Also there will be STASI agents would be among the people staying behind providing intelligence for the WARSAW PACT. As well as carrying out a little sabotage when possible.
 
16/15 Jul M-21 Wellington New Zealand
The first moves to forming a new government was being taken. Muldoon as of yet had not been deposed as the leader of the National Party. But there was maneuvering. While Lange was getting the feeling that the knives were out for him some in the party blamed him for the failure of the party to win the election. Now while it was not as of yet an open revolt, the word was from some of the party leadership were saying, that maybe he should step aside to allow the Labor Party to form a government with the New Zealand party. The argument was that both the New Zealand Party and the Labor party wanted to engage in same economic reforms. While the Labor party wanted to increase social spending that while not a priority for the New Zealand Party. Jones the head of the New Zealand Party had made it clear that such additional spending as long as it was well thought out was not a none starter with him.

But he was quite clear that Lange was not someone he felt should be Prime Minister of New Zealand and that he, Jones had all the time in the world to make a coalition government. But he also admitted that he could not force the Labor Party to depose its current head. As he commented Muldoon would do an okay job for the moment. That he could wait for someone to replace Muldoon in the National Party and that person could make a deal with the New Zealand party.

Lange had been told of the talks and he could see that many members of the Party desperately wanted to form the next government. The question was how far they would go to get what they wanted. Over the weekend, Lange had been unrepentant about his stances on Foreign Affairs, claiming he only wanted to free New Zealand from the grips of that cold war warrior Ronald Reagan.

What Lange did not realized was that his unwillingness to admit that he might have screwed up with his stance on the United States and Ronald Reagan, was a problem. Word was that a couple of polls on the election were being done and would be coming out on Tuesday. What Polls said would be important to everyone since it would allow the political parties to see what direction the country wanted to go.

12pm Auckland Three large ships appeared over the horizon heading for Auckland a scattering boats and yachts were out. It was winter but some boats were out and the ships with radios began to announce to the world that several American warships were headed to Auckland. On one of the yachts a man had Janes Fighting Ships that he had purchased out of curiosity. As he looked over the ships he read the name on the first ships and he soon figured out that the first ship in the column was the Nuclear-Powered Cruiser Long Beach. It did not take long to find out the names of the other two ships the California and the Arkansas He quickly sent a message to shore telling a friend at a radio station what he was seeing. The news was on the radio in just minutes and by the time the three ships anchored off of the naval base the word was spreading across New Zealand.

10am Townsville
To the surprise of everyone in the harbor of Townsville when an Australian patrol boat escorted a large submarine into the port and then to the docks. A short time later the first of a series of trucks arrived carrying food supplies for the Portsmouth. Not long after that a C-130 arrived at the RAAF airbase Townsville. The spare parts and other supplies for Portsmouth sent from Pearl were rapidly loaded on a couple of trucks.

Members of the Peace Movement who lived in Townsville began to gather as closely as they could to the dock where the submarine was docked. While others climbed on board on yachts that would go to the docks to harass the submarine by water. Shortly afterward a jet carrying Captain Bronte and Prime Minister Hawke. Hawke was taking to opportunity to point out to the people of Australia that American sailors in Nuclear submarines were here to face Soviet Nuclear submarines. He fully intended to point out that the reality was that Soviet Union had no interest in a nuclear free south pacific and never had. The positioning of the Juliet class submarine in the south pacific only months ago, before the crisis showed that. For the crew of the Portsmouth there were bits of good news. They would be paid and they could have liberty.

9am Hong Kong
The convoy arrived to pick up the Ghurka brigades equipment and the cargo was being rapidly loaded on board. China had made it clear to its operatives that the departure of the Gurkhas was not to be interfered with. The orders to their operatives was that they were to help expedite the movement of the troops to South Korea in any way they could.

10am Beijing China The Chinese foreign Minister was in a good mood, he had asked the Soviet Ambassador for a discussion over the current crisis. He was going to be pushing Indira Ghandi proposal for a conference to bring the current crisis to an end. After the meeting he already had a press relief ready to go, with appropriate comments about the Soviet Union’s intransigence. Bringing the Soviet Union down a rung or two was always a good thing and it would make China a more popular with nations of the third world.


When the meeting was over the Soviet Ambassador went back to the Embassy and sent a report of the meeting to Gromyko. The message was simple the world wanted the crisis to be brought to an end. China’s comments could be filed in the file and forget. But as the day went on more and more such messages arrived and some of these nations were to one degree or another friend of the Soviet Union. The pressure was beginning to build. But at least for the now the messages were not particularly harsh the nonaligned nations were taking a more of a gentle approach.


2pm Moscow Gromyko walked out of the Politburo meeting, it had gone on longer than he had anticipated. The hardliners were proving to be more aggressive in their defense of Chernenko’s policies than he had expected. Politburo members in the center were not as of yet inclined to take a stand on way or the other. Gromyko realized that more pressure had to be applied to the center. But everything was on hold until Wednesday, by then he would be able to report the reaction of the rest of the world.

Arriving at the Foreign Ministry a stack of messages from the various Ambassadors informing him that the non-aligned world was letting them know what they were thinking. Also a few personal messages were being sent by various third world leaders telling him their concerns and hoping that the Soviet Union would agree to let Indira Ghandi mediate the current conference. He wondered just how the news that the Politburo had once again refused to accept her offer.

The announcement that the Politburo had once again delay making any commitment to Indira Ghandi’s offer to mediate the crisis. There were members of the press who were uncomfortable criticizing the Moscow were facing a lot of commentary from people. The story line that came out of Moscow that the Soviet Union was being ham handed in its handling of the crisis and that it needed to reconsidered it position.

3PM London Thatcher was not happy the French government’s announcement of seven new divisions to the French Armies order of battle. When the British Army arrived, she was in a very bad mood. But they had a plan. They reminded her about the 1st Airborne and that the division was now ready for combat. Once comment was that they had even shipped in Parachutes from the United States to have enough to make it possible to train the entire division in parachute operations. Then one of the senior officers commented at least the division they had formed was capable of doing an airdrop something he rather doubted the French could do. That mollified Prime Minister Thatcher at least a little bit.



Then they talked about the four new tank battalions, the battalions were form but the no regiment attachments had been formed. The decision was to assign the 5th RTR to the battalion armed with the Chieftains while the 6th,7th and 8th RTR would have the Centurion tanks. The British Army wanted to ask the queen to present the colors to the newly formed battalions. They also wanted to bring in groups of veterans from World War II to talk to the troops about the units past history.

They announced the three territorial battalions have been converted to mechanized battalions. All had been part of the 42nd brigade two battalions the 4 battalion of the King’s Own Royal Borders Regiment, the 5/8TH the Kings Regiment would remain with the brigade. The one regular unit was the 1st Royal Irish Rangers this unit was now fully truck mobile and the remaining unit the Duke of 4th Lancaster’s Own Yeomanry. It was the reconnaissance unit of the brigade using Land Rovers. The 6th RTR would also be assigned to the 42nd brigade.



The tank unit would be 7th RTR would be the 54th Brigades tank component. The 4th Queen’s Lancaster Regiment would be transferred in from the 412nd brigade. Now it would be 54th brigade mechanized battalion. This brigade would have one tank battalion, one mechanized infantry battalion with two light infantry battalions the regular battalion was the 2nd Queen’s Regiment and the 6th battalion of the Royal Anglian Regiment was a territorial battalion. The Army had stated that the two light infantry battalions would be truck mounted by the end of the month.



It had been decided to form a brigade with 5th RTR, the 1st and 2nd battalions Scots Guards both were mechanized with the A sqdn from the Life Guard and A sqdn from the 15/19th Hussars, forming a mechanized brigade. There was some debate about whether the brigade could be formed as a Guards brigade since the brigade would not be purely made up of Guards units. But the British Army had decided to form the 1st Guards Brigade.

The plan was to take the 1st Guard mechanized brigade as well as the 42nd and 54th brigade to form a new 5th division. They did admit that the division would lack an artillery component but the could work out that part of the situation at a later date.

At the same time the 1st battalion Coldstream Guard 2nd battalion Coldstream Guard, the 1st Grenadier Guards were to be formed into a Light Infantry Guards brigade. Recalled Guardsmen were forming small companies of troops with a few officers and NCO’s having been transferred these new companies. They would take over the Guards Ceremonial duties. That would permit the formation of the 2nd Brigade of the Guards.

The idea was to put the newly formed, 2nd Guards with the 51st Highland Brigade compose of three territorial battalions with the 1/51st, 2/51st and the 3/51st Highland Volunteers and the third brigade would be the 52nd Lowland brigade all regular units the 1st Royal Scots, 1st battalion Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders with the 1/52nd and the 2nd/52nd together to form a new division the 6th division. With the 8th RTR to be assigned as the division sole armored unit. The briefer commented that they were forming a recon battalion made up retired Saladin Armored Cars. The crews were being gathered from former prior service personal who had served in the various British Army recce units. They might not have worked with the Saladin’s during their tour of service but they knew how to do their mission. They would just need to train in the Saladin.

Support units would be gathered from the various other units, engineers, supply units could be formed but British Army had a shortage of field pieces to form new artillery units. One of the artillery officer commented that maybe they could find enough 25 pounder field guns put at least a few understrength artillery battalions. Thatcher told the officer to do their best at finding field pieces that could still be used for combat.

Then the discussion turned to the 1st Airborne, the 5th Airborne brigade was the regular army component. The other brigade was the 1st Airborne brigade formed out of the 4th, 10th and 15th territorial battalions. While the 1st Canadian regiment would be in a separate brigade despite it had the strength closer to that of a battalion. The briefer commented that the one battery from the 7th RHA had been in Belize and it had been brought back to the United Kingdom. He also commented that the equipment that had also been brought back. The plan was to match the batteries equipment with prior service 7th RHA personnel. The same thing was done with the battery assigned to the Falklands. But the personnel and equipment were headed home.

The troops would rejoin the main unit while the equipment would be used to form a second 105mm battery also using prior service personal. Also, some work was being done to form a battery from the Italian Pack howitzers that had one provided the artillery for the Paratroops before the new L118 came into service. Once that was done as far as the Army was concerned the division would be at full strength. Except for the minor problem of having to train the artillerymen to be paratroops. ** That comment elicited some laughter from the people being briefed one person commented, **Can just see the recruiters walking thought the recalled troops trying to recruit the men to fill out those units. But the 1ST Airborne would be fully operational.


Then Thatcher commented that they had only formed three divisions as compared to the seven divisions formed by the French. The senior officer replied that at least the divisions they formed were made up of combat ready brigades and that organizing the various divisional support units was much more doable. He argued that the three divisions organized by the British army would be much more combat ready than any one of the divisions formed by the French.

Thatcher was not looking convince when another officer commented that the British Army had went for quality over quantity and that the two new infantry division were individually more powerful than the smaller and weaker French divisions. Another officer commented that they had pretty much take all the forces they dare that only four operation brigades were left in the Great Britain the 2nd Infantry brigade, the 160th Wales Brigade, the 43rd Wessex brigade the 143rd Infantry Brigade If we sent those brigades overseas the nation would only have a few independent battalions scattered around the UK. We would be hard pressed to keep order.

Thatcher considered what the officer said and she replied, ** I see your point but I would be happier with one more division. Couldn’t we form one more division. The 43rd Wessex division, we could take the Wessex brigade and the Wales brigade. The gathered officers did not speak for a minute or so before the Senior officer replied, **I think that we could do that. **

One of the Minister of the Cabinet commented that the Soviet units have a lot of tanks and APC’s but all of the divisions were light on tanks and all the territorial units were understrength support weapons. I am a little worried about these unit’s ability to deal with the Soviet Armies Tank heavy units. Margaret Thatcher was glaring at the man. The Minister was not intimidated, he had served in the Army as at first an infantry man and later on tanker in the 6th Guards Brigade during World War II. He had commanded a Tank Battalion during the war. The officer respected the man’s question,


The briefer replied, We going through stocks of weapons, we plan on supplying as many Milan and Swingfire missiles from our reserves. We did have the foresight to keep as many of the most serviceable of the Wombat Recoilless Rifles in storage. When we changed over to the Milan system we took the time put the best of the Wombats in storage. We also have a good quantity of ammunitions still in storage. We held onto the ammunition on the off chance that we would need to bring Wombats back into service in an emergency. We are thinking about attaching double the number that were assigned to a battalion when it was still a frontline weapon. Sixteen per battalion with the non-mechanized units getting preference for the weapons. The man nodded his head he was satisfied with the response. He smiled at Thatcher and she smiled back. The man was one of her favorites and he would be allowed to question the armies plans.

Then the senior Artillery officer spoke up, **Madame Prime Minister, the Army has been in a fight with the Foreign Office over the shipment of war materials overseas. While we understand that we need to keep our reputation as a reliable supplier of arms to other countries. So far, the Army has been able to stop of the movement of weapons and other war materiel overseas. But with the new divisions being formed we need the L118 and L121 that are currently sitting in various harbors over to the military we have twenty L118’s sitting in ports and we have eighteen L121’s. We need those guns.


As Thatcher considered the request the Foreign Minister spoke up he defended the Foreign officers position but suddenly Thatcher put up her hand silencing the man. Then she replied, **Anything that can help the military strengthen the defense Europe must be done. We can add these weapons and anything else that we can use to our defense forces. Also, I imagine that there are some equipment built for export that are still sitting at the factories they are to take those weapons to and anything else that is produced during the crisis. Inform our customers that will send replacement as soon a possible.

As the senior officers of the British Army left number 10 Downing street one commented that we can make sure that the Airborne Division have it full complement of artillery and the 5TH division will have close to it full complement of artillery. The senior Artillery officer commented, **We will go through the replacement stock and see if we can put eighteen guns from logistic war stock. ** He went silent for a minute or so and he commented we might be able to find enough field pieces to form the third artillery regiment and fill out the 5th artillery component. But we will not be able to do that for the other divisions.

Then the senior general commented we have a lot of Saracen APC ‘s in Northern Ireland we could ship enough of them to full mechanize the 5th division. We could ask for volunteers from the Ulster Constabulary and other military units to provide the trained crews and the support personal in the three battalions that we were going to make truck mounted and the trucks could be used for the divisions support units. The other officers considered the approach and a slow grim acceptance of weakening of the forces in Northern Ireland ever more than they had already been.

Then the Artillery General asked what we do, about the divisions artillery for the other two divisions. His reply was simple, **We will go through all the stocks of the old 25pound guns, we have, a large quantity of spare parts. I am hoping to find enough guns, to organize the division artillery arm. If we can do that we will still have to find the rest of the equipment needed for an efficient artillery unit. But that could be a real problem.

Well we will do what Belgium and the Netherland’s will do. We go to the Americans with our hats in hand. We will see if we can get them to ship over additional National Guard Artillery brigade to help fill out the last division.

Then another officer commented, **With the last division I believe that we have spread ourselves to thin. The senior General of the British Army replied, **We will announce the last division but the odds of it ending up in West Germany is slim to none. We are pulling a French move and the Prime Minister knows it. But we will still ask for the artillery brigade just in case,
 
Just to add to your knowledge, from a Canadian perspective.
When a Regiment is disbanded, the colours/guidon are "laid up". In Canada, the colours/guidon are laid up, normally in a church in a city the Unit was formed up from.
When I toured Windsor castle. I saw hundreds of colours and guidons "laid up"., and to my surprise, some were from Canadian Regiments from before Canada was Canada. Before that, I did not know the Great Britain recruited Regiments from the colony of Canada.
My point being, that while a Regiment is gone, the colours or guidons "live".
Bringing the colours or guidons back to a Regiment is a hugely emotional thing, normally it is not something done by regal authority. (Although there have been a few exceptions). Normally, previous commanders (if still alive) would handle those duties (making it even more emotional).
Just trying to add to your knowledge, good story, and please keep up the good work!
 
RetiredCdntanker- Good point the connection that the British, Canadins and the rest of the Commonwealth Nations have toward the regimental flag is much much higher than in the United States. I could easily see the new reformed Regiments receiving their colors from the Queen with lines of veteran who had served in the regiment in the past gathered to watch the display. Or possibly the Queen handing the flag to group of World War II veterans who then hand the colors to the new men of regiment. Make it a day were the new formed regiment is told stories of the honor the regiment they have inherited and the need for them to maintain that honor and add to gain new honors for the regiment. I could see it being an event being carried on BBC.
 
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RetiredCdntanker- Good point the connection that the British, Canadins and the rest of the Commonwealth Nations have toward the regimental flag is much much higher than in the United States. I could easily see the new reformed Regiments receiving their colors from the Queen with lines of veteran who had served in the regiment in the past gathered to watch the display. Or possibly the Queen handing the flag to group of World War II veterans who then hand the colors to the new men of regiment. Make it a day were the new formed regiment is told stories of the honor the regiment they have inherited and the need for them to maintain that honor and add to gain new honors for the regiment. I could see it being an event being carried on BBC.

In the U.K. we have to flags one being the Regimental Standard and the othe the Queens colour these are the Regiment one unit the does not have them are Artillery Regiments their colours are there guns.
 

ferdi254

Banned
NATO myth from the 80´s:

The WP armies were poised for an attack. NATO must have forces to repel the always imminent attack of the inherently aggressive WP which one day will come because the “Slawic Hordes” from the east are intent on attacking us and subjugating the free west as this is what their political leadership wants. Very common meme in military and conservative circles

OTL reality:

The higher ranking members of the KPDSU had all experienced WWII. They feared but one thing, and that was (yet another after 1812, 1914,1919 and 1941) invasion from the West. In their POV the strong army was needed to deter any such invasion and of course, if such an invasion would come it should be fought offensively on the ground of the invader. Prepping up the WP states, even spending huge amounts of money to keep them aligned was seen as spending for a glacis to make sure the fight is not on Russian soil (which some people in the USA have a problem to understand with their own glacis). If the WP had wanted to attack 69-72 would have been ideal, more or less parity in tech, the WP forces in good shape and what was not committed to Vietnam of the US forces…

But they never did and never threatened to. It is really important to acknowledge the fact that completely opposite to what many people on politics, media and military in the west were drumming incessantly, the WP armies were NOT a strategically offensive weapon (same as in 1941).

ITTL:

The fear that they get invaded might lead the USSR to what they see as a preemptive strike, but unless they are convinced that the NATO will attack anyway, they won´t attack. It would simply be completely against their thinking. They knew that in the best of cases in the middle of the 80´s they might make it (in 87 they adopted the plan to start such a thing with a couple hundred tactical nukes due to conventional inferiority) but this is not the best of cases. Volksarmee gone, Poland close to open revolt, own forces in ever declining readiness and NATO fully up and ready…. Unless the Politoffice clearly is convinced the NATO will attack them, they won´t attack.
 
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