Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

ferdi254

Banned
There are a couple of things the NATO and the WP did in the 80s and some things both sides did not know then but are known now. One important thing is that the NATO really thought the red fleet would try to close the Atlantic, which the WP never actually intended to do. Another important thing was the way the NATO calculated the strength of the WP. If a division had 320 tanks it was assumed that one needed to fight those 320 tanks. Everybody who has some military experience knows that it does not work that way. Give the commander of any tankdivision with X tanks the order to fill up, get munition on board and drive 100 km to meet the enemy you won´t have X tanks fighting but rather 0,aX tanks. Some will be in maintenance, some are scheduled for next weeks maintenance and some will simply go tech. But still the NATO calculated with X. That made sense by then for three reasons.

  1. It is always better to overestimate the enemy than to underestimate. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

  2. Of course any army needs to justify its budget (wants to have it increased) and the larger and the more dangerous the enemy appears to politicians the easier it is to get money (see the famous rocket gap discussion)

  3. The NATO planners were assuming (and did this in all war plans) that the WP would have planned a war, started clandestine preparations and would catch NATO more or less with the pants down. So while NATO tanks would be in maintenance WP tanks would not
 

ferdi254

Banned
But this all is not the case in this scenario. Here NATO is 100% up and prepared while a large part of the WP forces have already ceased to exist (NVA) or are busy with occupying duty. And for the rest? The Red Army divisions in the GDR were used to quell an uprising. Meaning they had to leave barracks with hardly any preparation, fan out the troops and the tanks have already dozens to hundreds km on the clock before they reach any fighting position. Plus (as we know by now, not then) the spare part situation of that army was pretty dire and there were only a couple of places in which to maintain tanks.

The NATO on the other side only has to move up to the border (supported by large numbers of trucks) has the maintenance capabilities close and time to repair in the barracks plus has literally hundreds of car workshops which can help with repairs. And any missing spares have max 2 days from factory to troop. So even with both sides starting with 80% readiness of heavy equipment (in reality NATO was closer to 90% while WP was closer to 70%, so a huge WP wank here) the NATO will be now at 98% and the WP is wanked with the assumption they maintain the 80%.

For the parts of the army moved from the USSR. If those in the western districts manage to keep 80% readiness while moving a couple hundred km west and move the last 50-100 km on own tracks this is wanking again. Those C and D divisions, well, first the equipment is old, second, there is no possibility to produce spares and the spare equipment that there was will have grown legs to a large extent. And then the Red Army had to man those tanks, (run and maintained by certainly the most incompetent officers and noncoms), with 40 year old reservists who had how much training in the last two years? And those people having all reason to have the tank not working to not see the front. 60% is a good figure for the WP.
 
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ferdi254

Banned
Another thing we know by now but did not then was how vastly superior the latest generation of NATO MBT´s was to anything the WP had. The gulf wars have proven that T 72´s hardly stand a chance against M1s. Or to be more precise: Largely turn into targets. And all older models would just have been target practice for the crew of a Leo.

NATO thinking at the time was that the MBT´s were better but they never expected that much better that 5:1 superiorities in enemy tanks could easily be countered (at day, at night it gets even worse for the WP).

Farmer, you dismissed my remark about the tank production in the NATO. If the crisis from the uprising in the GDR till the fighting begins last two months, NATO will have 1.000-2.000 (depending on when they start producing big time) additional MBTs from Europe plus easily 400 from the USA. That is 1.400 plus MBT´s of the latest generation. This alone would be more than enough to stop the 15.000 tanks that you have the C and D division have. Bringing this down to a more realistic 9.000 (s.a.) which side would you rather command? The one with 9.000 T34 and T54 or the one with 1.400 tanks of M1 quality? And by then the NATO should be at a combined 100 daily.
 

ferdi254

Banned
For the fronts. Farmer sorry but I think you dismissed the 3:1 superiority on the Bulgarian front too fast. Yes, by NATO standards the equipment was outdated but still perfectly on par with what the WP had. More troops simply won´t fit into this front. And the NATO enjoys much better flexibility in the movement of the troops. And a large part of the 1 on WP side is the Bulgarian army. If you really want to argue that a 3:1 superiority in numbers will not help the NATO, then the question is, how will the WP who is only 3:2 superior on the main front and has outdated equipment and can hardly move troops laterally (which the NATO can easily do) make any progress?

In the southwest, if you have CSSR divisions attack Austria that means they have to be moved east. Even if the NATO and Austrian intelligence completely fail to notice the mobilization of the WP in Hungary and even fail to notice the funny movement of CSSR troops the moment the WP starts attacking it will take the Austrian government 2 seconds to cry for help. More realistically the WP troops have been discovered and the Austrian government and NATO are already in contact to plan for the case. Italian armies do not really have to monitor the Yugoslavian border unless Yugoslavia moves troops there and also do not have to move around this country, there are perfect roads between Austria and Italy. And if you have a couple 100k CSSR troops attacking Austria they will not attack the FRG meaning NATO has some troops to spare. Maybe 500 of the extra tanks produced?
 

ferdi254

Banned
When analyzing TTL I think it is important to always remember that the NATO thinking was for a completely different attack. WP attacks with the full NVA plus Polish troops, has clandestinely prepared, NATO will be behind in mobilization, US troops are still largely in the USA and the WP has no troubles getting all troops up to the front and so has a permanent 3 or 4 to one superiority with no too bad tanks on their side. And they catch large parts of the eastern FRG with the roads intact due to the surprise. The plan was that the European forces should delay the advance until the US army arrives and the better quality of the NATO troops would make a difference.

Comparing TTL to the famous “red storm rising”, in the latter the WP had months to prepare troops, train them, weed out incompetent officers, is able to nearly mobilise to the full extent possible while the NATO is coming very late into gear plus the WP seriously and far more successfully than would ever happen IRL challenges the Atlantic… and yet the WP forces are fought to a standstill by the NATO. Barely, but they are, even though the WP had all kinds of advantages.

This would never have happened in reality in the middle of the eighties as we know by now (neither red storm nor any other scenarios done by NATO then). The bad logistics would have made it impossible to move WP troops that fast up and supply those at the front, at night the WP would have been at a then unknown disadvantage and the M1s and Leos would have wreaked havoc upon WP tank armies. Add the deficiencies in training, lack of spare parts…

But here the NATO is fully mobilized in prepared defense positions (wonder how many mines are laid by now) a large part of the WP forces is not on the battle, the WP adds another two armies (Austrian and Italian) on the NATO side and will not be able to catch any bridge intact so the WP army can move west (with heavy restrictions) but not north or south while the NATO can do this. So I stay to my point: Any WP troop making it more than 50km into NATO territory is either extremely lucky or faces incompetent commanders on NATO side.
 
DarkObelisk- Sorry about the delay it was a long day at work and needed to build up some energy. You hit the nail on the head, the Soviet economy was running on empty for quite awhile but it had been able to keep its head above water so far. This crisis is destablizing an already unstable economy. The increased drain of money from the economy due to first round of mobilization of the Army. The second round of the mobilization not only drains more money. But it also impair production both industrial and agricultural production.

The worst thing about this crisis is that Soviet accounting procedures are more designed to conceal problems not find them. To do an honest study of the economy would tell the Politburo what is facing them. Once that happens and it will they will have two choices backdown and accept the collapse of their empire or go for broke. If Gorbachev wins he will backdown, if Romanov wins the war will happen. By then end of the next thirty days it will be fish or cut bait.
 
Well Farmer,

From the title of your story I think I know who will win the Politburo power struggle. But I know that I’m going to enjoy all the twists and turns getting there.
 
Ferdi254- Sorry about the delay it was a long day. You are correct that NATO expected an all-out attack from the Soviet Navy. While the Soviet Navy was engaged in protecting it ballistic missile submarine. With some offensive operations to support the Soviet Army in its offensive operations in Scandinavia. One thing this will do is keep the NATO naval force maintaining some distance from the Soviet Navy the expectation that the Soviet Navy will get in the first shot. But one the first round is over then the NATO naval forces would head north looking for the Soviet Navy.


As for the over estimation of the Soviet force, I in general agree with what you are saying.


True no units on either side will be up to full strength. As for truck, the various European armies have probably taken control of as many trucks as possible without seriously damaging of the various countries. With the truck suppliers inside Europe it will be a lot easier to move, spare parts around Europe and your right about the various repair shops being able to help maintain and repair trucks. But Europe has the metric system and the US uses English system so having the tools to work on US vehicles maybe problematic.

As for the US military a steady flow of truck is headed overseas some are military a lot are civilian truck to make up for the seriously understrength transport units. Sending in spare parts will have some problems the military tend to be under supplied with spare parts. Spare parts are not sexy so upping production for the military trucks will have to be done. Conversely the civilian trucks being sent over I would think would have better supply of spare parts. After all truck manufacturers make money selling spare parts so maintaining a good supply of spare parts was a necessity profit wise. But I imagine that the spare parts stock pile inside the US will be depleted to on degree or another. Transporting spare parts overseas will tend to be done by seas although I could see at least some quantity of spare parts being sent over by air to make up for a parts shortage. But since there are only so many transport plane competitions for space will be fierce.


The T-72 tanks in Iraq were reported to be using substandard ammunition and the crew training was not even up to Soviet Military standards and the M-1 tanks in Iraq main gun armament was the 120mm cannons. In 1984 that variant had not been introduced and if memory serves me correct the first of the tanks mounting the 120mm cannons were to be produced in November of 1984. At the time the 105mm UK produced gun was the weapon mounted on the M-1’s.



As for tanks the American army had three division with M-1 tanks the 3rd Infantry, the 2nd Armored and the 1st Cavalry and the 163rd Cavalry regiment and very few replacement tanks. The rest of the American tank force is M-60a3 thru M-60a1’s with some M-48a5’s. The British Army only had one regiment of Challengers the rest being Chieftain tanks and a few Centurions. The only country with large supply of the latest tanks was Germany with Leopard 1’s and Leopard II as well as an upgraded M-48a2ga2 roughly equivalent to the M-48a5. Also only the Leopard II’s have the 120mm cannon everyone else is using the 105mm Cannon. Also the Leopard do not use the new Chobham armor and relied on speed rather than armor to protect them.


The Soviet tanks and crew will not be as easy to take out as the Iraqi Army. They will have had some time to train between mobilization and the eventual combat.


I don’t dismiss production but it not that easy to increase tank production, you need the parts before you can build the tanks and the part need the raw material before you can make the parts and you need to train the workers build everything and that all takes time. I don’t know how many tanks the British are producing per month but it was not that many while M-1 production was being increased to 3.5 tanks per day in September and even if you double production it will take at least a couple of months to do so and that only after new contracts have been award and signed not to mention you have to get congress signed on to the idea. This all takes time. Other countries have the Leopard I’s but not in large quantities and with I am not sure how many tanks are available as replacement tanks for battle losses.


The Germans will have the best production but if the factories are over run by the Soviet Union then tank production will suffer. As for the French the AMX-30b is in production and it’s an upgrade of the AMX-30 a good tank but it is an upgraded tank of an older generation. Only a couple of hundred are in service the rest are the AMX-30 also a good tank for its era.


The Soviets know where the good tanks are and will send the tanks most able to stand up to them. As for the rest they can be used against the less capable tank formation and the number can have an effect. But the T-34/85’s are cannon fodder but used correct can be useful. As for the watching their allies the last wave of division can do that job. That allows every first and second line division to be located on the front as well as the second wave division and brigades as well as Penal battalion troops left over and there will be a lot of left over units.



I don’t totally dismiss the Southern front force but given the number of division they have and the terrain which is pretty good defensive terrain the forces in Bulgaria attacking units will get burned up. Here the final wave divisions will be of use but I don’t think that either the Greek or Turkish armies will be pushovers.


Austria will get help but it will take time to move the troops in and the WARSAW Pact air forces will be out in force interfering with any movement of troops. As for the Yugoslav border the Italian Army will leave forces there but I don’t think units will start being moved from the frontier until the fighting start so that they can be used where they are most needed. Also keeping troops on the border makes sense if Croatia and Slovenia change sides you would have an open road to the Hungarian border except for Warsaw Pact air attacks.


As for defensive position the mines have not been laid in any quantity. The minefields are planned but so far only a limited number have been laid. Civilians live in these areas and its bad press to have them blown up by mines. Remember to large extent the peacetime military still exists.
 
Speaking of mines...
The NATO navies will be gearing up to put defensive minefields in place, surface minelayers can do the job in the Baltic and I am sure as things get close there will be planned missions for subs and aircraft to lay offensive minefields around some Soviet/WP ports. The WP will, of course do what they can but geography is against them and while subs could lay minefields around some US ports (small but a nuisance) to do so too far in advance of the start day would be a no-go, and getting subs close enough to do so would be chancy. One potential ploy would be for "flag of convenience" ships to drop mines in a few spots, and it is not impossible for some such ship to scuttle itself in a lock of the Panama Canal or at Suez. For the Soviets/WP the bad news about naval mining is that reinforcements and supplies have been coming unimpeded to Europe and elsewhere, so the effect of even a successful mining campaign will be diminished markedly.
 
sloreck- You right once the situation gets clearer the placement of mines at sea will begin. I have to admit that i did not think about sending ships and subs close to port to lay mines. I have to admit that the idea of the Soviet Union having ships flying under flags of convenience did no occur to me either. Thank you, i will probably use the idea. As for the current situation with large numbers of ships headed to Europe carrying supplies to Europe will make life a lot easier for NATO. But laying a scattering of mines in various location once war becomes inevitable. That could force the relocation of resources from the front lines to the rear area. Not to mention the dislocation of sea trade would damage military production and possibly damage the morale of the population in the area affected.
 
Surface warships laying mines will be restricted primarily to laying defensive minefields, or potentially minefields in chokepoints that are away from "enemy" coasts. "Merchant" ships laying mines covertly has been done OTL (both the Iraqis and the Libyans). OTOH submarines laying mines can be done closer in to hostile shores, the number of mines that a sub can carry is limited but mines create a hassle well in excess of the actual number laid. For Russian subs doing so, getting close enough to the US coast (east or west) or Hawaii/Guam is going to be highly risky as SOSUS and other ASW is likely to pick them up and getting caught laying mines is an act of war. OTL some of thye NATO navies, for example Belgium and Netherlands, were somewhat specialized for mine warfare in addition to the capabilities of the larger navies. The USN had plans for reserve units to be involved in ensuring ports were safe.

One of the biggest problems for shipping will be if the Soviets place mines covertly in various chokepoints, near Suez & Panama, Straits of Malacca, Straits of Hormuz. In some cases/places you might get "friendly" regimes to do this.

I wonder what will happen in the Pacific. This is the only place where the USA and the USSR have a mutual border. You have military bases within tactical air range of each other (in Alaska and Kamchatka) as well as radar and other bases in the Aleutians and in the Bering Sea. These bases can't be ignored, but direct air raids are going to be very tense. I also wonder if the Japanese have any plans to try and get back some of the Kuriles taken at the endo f WWII byt the USSR - the folks who live there are (mostly) ethnic Japanese.
 
You will see more minefields in Northern Europe of the Baltic sea as well as Soviet Unions Pacific coastlines. But not so much else where but some mines could be laid as harassing operations. But it would be limited in nature and in the hope of diverting frontlines units to secondary fronts. To get friendly countries outside of the block nations means those nations taking risks to help the Soviet Union. I think that most will provide lip service in the way of support and anyone foolish enough to be open about aid to the Soviet Union run the risk of the US or its allies teaching them a quick lesson. As for the Japanese launching amphibious operations to secure the Kuriles, That is unlikely given the number of amphibious ships the Japanese have is limited and the US is unlikely to divert forces for that sort of campaign with some many demands already being made on the Marines. http://www.navypedia.org/retro_view/yesterday_index.htm
 

ferdi254

Banned
I would place my bet that everybody keeps totally silent once the big clash begins who is not a member of NATO or WP (exception maybe the neutral European countries after an attack against Austria).In case it goes nuclear you would just paint a huge "target" on your country if you ally with one side and in case it does not... either you are on the winning side, then you can start your local Actions later or you are on the losing side, then it´s better not to have started any local action. So with the exception of NKorea any sane country will duck and cover. And having the Suez canal blocked with a ship of your flag or getting caught laying mines into NATO shipping lanes.... the NATO and especially the USA would not take this lightly and everyone would know that...

In this situation it makes btw not much sense to put first rate NATO troops in secondary theatres, because if you lose in Europe you could not care less about Nicaragua et al (assuming you are not radioactive dust yourself in the first place) and if you win in Europe nobody would dare doing something against your interest (and those being stupid enough will bow pretty fast afterwards anyway)
 

ferdi254

Banned
I have just looked up a map of the Austrian/FRG border. There are three highways and 5 secondary roads plus three rail lines alone from Passau to Salzburg 100 km). If WP air power could seal this off then they are so superior that that alone could make them win the war. But if we assume both sides are equally good in the air (ASB for the WP, no longer wanking) then the WP can as well shut off those roads as the NATO can shut down the 6(!) ways (road plus train) through which all forces and their supply who attack the NATO North of the Harz must go through, but once we take the superior NATO air force into account I´d guess it will be hard for the WP to achieve any serious interdiction of NATO forces moving into Austria from the West (more roads to close to stop the Italian army) while reducing the 6 ways to get troops to Northern Germany is not that hard.

Oh and one nasty surprise for the WP (in case they did not look at maps carefully). Between the Harz and the Baltic there is a pretty large channel the "Mittellandkanal". Any WP unit attacking south of it will stay south (bridges blown), any unit north of it will stay there. Or they go back all the way to the first bridge in the GDR (assuming that is not destroyed). Nato on the other hand can cross at will. The enemy attacks 3:2 superior across a 250 km front? Not a problem. The enemy finds a week spot in the south and concentrates forces? It still can only attack with troops already allocated to this part of the line while NATO can redistribute. If the WP achieves superiority at any given place in the line it will take NATO max 12 hours to go to nearly parity again.
 
ferdi254 You are pretty much right about no one with any sense not getting involved in the war unless forced to but there is alway some idiot that thinks he knows better.

As for Nicaragua- It is close to the Panama Canal and the United States is very paranoid about the Panama Canal. Also Cuba sits on major shipping routes vital to the United States so Cuba is going to get it. Besides I cannot see Castro sitting this one out.

Austria will get hit hard early in the war and you are right about the ability of the NATO units to move swiftly to breaks in the line. But you do have the WARSAW PACT Air Forces out bombing bridges and troop columns to slow down the reaction time of the reinforcing units. Also the Soviet Army will put in airborne units behind NATO lines to block roads and prevent the rapid flow of troops and supplies to critical areas. Also the odd incompetent officer or unit not up to fighting can change the direction of the war. Those are the variables of war that make it so nerve wracking.
 
While Soviet forces and probably GDR forces will be effective on the offense, I have doubts about Polish/Czech/Hungarian forces versus NATO on the offensive. These forces would be more motivated defending their own territory but how anxious will large numbers of these conscript armies be to die (under Soviet direction and often obviously used as bullet sponges) pushing forward in to NATO territory. Obviously elite units will be well motivated, but especially units made up of recalled reservists are unlikely to be terribly gung-ho. If those sorts of units can be kept out of the front lines, well and good but I doubt that will be the case. WP troops will be using older equipment, and a reserve WP formation with T-54s is going to be under no illusions about what happens if they run up against M-60s or better. Likewise troops in open top APCs won't feel very good when artillery/mortars start coming down. As far as tactical anti-air, good luck for most of them.

I expect the Bulgarians would be OK with going against just Greeks and Turks, but the presence of a major US unit will not give them a warm fuzzy feeling.
 
I sort of agree, my feeling that at least initially the Polish/Czech/Hungarian and Romanian units will fight and if they have some success they will fight for a longer period of time but as setbacks begin to occur and casualties mount the troop morale will collapse. As for Romania they will see troops from other NATO nations.
 
10am Brussels General Murdock was not a happy man he had spent his life training to command tanks in battle and it was looking increasingly likely that war would break out. While this war could destroy civilization but as a soldier who spent his life preparing for war to be sitting behind a desk was anathema to him. Now it looked like Colonel Delacroix was being given command of one of the newly formed brigades. He was now one step closer a commanding a brigade in battle. He then asked Col Delacroix to com to his office. Col. Delacroix arrived in General Murdock’s office, the general did not look very happy and then he spoke, **You’re one lucky son of bitch, NDHQ is giving you the 3rd Brigade. I wish it was me going but you are, I wish you all the luck I can and congratulations for your new command. ** Then the General came around his desk and shook Col. Delacroix hand. ** Now let’s go tell the rest of the staff and you can go home and pack. I’ll have my secretary set up a flight home on the first available flight. That is as soon as your packed.

10AM Paris
The Minister of Defense arrive to brief President Mitterrand and he was pleased with the information but he stated he wanted all the divisions had numeral designations. He did not want a member of the Press asking a question like the divisions numeric designations. That could cause a moment of embarrassment for the President so while he was happy about the plan in general it needed a bit more work. The Minister of Defense nodded his head and he told the President that he would have a list of the new divisions before 2pm. That would allow the President to go before the Press and make his announcement today.

3PM Paris The President of France had the Press gathered for a press conference and he gave a short speech, announcing the Formation of an Airborne division the 25th Paratroop division and then a mountain division the 28th Mountain division. Finally, the five new infantry divisions, 2nd ,18th ,21st ,22nd and finally the 152nd divisions. The press where very impressed with the announcements and as long as the press did not dig to deeply into how unbottle ready the new divisions were. But senior French military officers were quite firm that they would make every effort to have the divisions ready for battle.

6pm London The news reports from France had caught the British Army and the Thatcher Government by surprise. The leadership of the Army that the only good thing about the announcement was that Thatcher had made other commitments. That meant she could not order meeting to demand action tonight. But they decided to put a plan together tonight. Then they would have something laid out for the PM or there would be hell to pay and they would be the ones paying.

9AM New York In the UN news about the Politburos failure to make a decision on the conference did not go down well. The Soviet Ambassador as well as the ambassadors from the various Warsaw Pact nations as well as other allies of the Soviet Union. Vietnam, Cuban, Nicaragua, North Korea and other allies of the Soviet Union around the world were finding themselves on the wrong side of the Nonaligned Nations. What was ironic was that some of the countries were members of the nonaligned movement. The weekend was going to be a very uncomfortable for the diplomatic staffs of the Soviet Union and its allies. For once the American ambassador to the UN Jean Kirkpatrick was keeping her mouth shut. The truth was she was enjoying watching the Soviet ambassador to the UN catching hell.

10am NDHQ Ottawa The response from the US military had arrived and it was quite heartening, thirteen m-109’s would be provided but no more could be justified. The request for three hundred and fifty M-113’s of all variants was approved. The M-113’s would be sent from stockpiles and new production. But the Canadians would have to provide the engines and the flatcars cars carry out the movement. Also pointed out that American artillery units could be attached to the new brigades. The unit would be the 209th Field Artillery brigade, the brigade was now training at Fort Drum so the travel time it would take to move the brigade to Valcartier would not be overly long. They pointed out that way the brigade with its two well trained National Guard artillery battalions could easily attached and by training with the Canadian Mobile Force. Then the brigade could become use to the command structure and procedures used by the Canadian Mobile Force. That offered had to be relayed to the political leadership for a decision.

Later that day the announcement of the formation of two new brigades. With a list of the selected units was announced. While the Mobile Force announced that additional troops levies would be taken from other Militia units would be carried out to fill out the two new brigades. But that levy would be made up of volunteers. The announcement was received with hostile questions from the press. But the responses from the briefers made it quite clear that the decisions had been made and the orders had been sent.

Then a member of the press who had been talking to some members of the Liberal Party who had been briefed on the Soviet move to fully mobilized there forced asked a question. It was short and to point, ** Is this decision have anything to do with the fact that the Soviet Union has mobilized every unit it has adding upward of two million troops and twenty to thirty thousand tanks to the Warsaw Pact order of battle? **

The question caught the briefers a little off guard but not totally surprised. Some news stories had appeared on some minor publications. The attitude had been that if the question had been don’t lie and when asked tell the truth. The response was short and to the point, **Yes, the unprecedented mobilization of the Red Army had caused the Canadian Mobile force to organized additional units. ** But the briefers refused to say more. In a way the question to the minds of the voters of Canada off of the mobilization of two new brigades. Now the discussion was that the latest mobilization of additional Soviet troops and tanks. Not to mention not telling anyone about what the Soviet Union had done this over a week before.

4pm Washington
The Secretary of the Treasury came in the brief the President on various matters regarding the economy. Also, the movement of the US gold and silver reserves was still on ongoing a steady stream gold was going to an abandoned salt mine in Kansas was still ongoing. Half the gold and three fifths of the silver reserves was going into the salt mine. While about a half of the Gold reserve and two fifths of the silver reserve had been put into storage at the US Black Hills Army Depot. The hope was that by doing that the Soviet Union would not realize what they had done. The treasury department using the Department of Agriculture for cover a story had been put out in the area that a stockpile of foodstuffs was being locate at the depot.

They were shipping in food to but not in the quantities that the semis would indicate. But a stockpile of food would be there. They were using the size of the stockpile of food and the condition of the site as an excuse to locate a battalion of MP’s as well as battalion of engineers to do necessary maintenance to the bunkers and aid in any recovery of the United States. Very few civilian personal, where assigned to the facility.

Reagan considered what he had been told and he commented, ** You do realize that if a war happens and the people protecting the gold and silver will be more worried about their families than protecting all that gold and silver. I think you should allow the troops and other personal to bring at least their wives and families to the Depot. ** Regan, considered the idea and then he nodded his head, **That would give at least some of the troops a very good reason to stay at the depot. I will look into the idea. **


8pm Johannesburg South Africa Alan was in a good mood Erica had told him that Conrad was back in town. She also commented that he knew that Alan had been looking for him earlier in the week. He had invited Erica and Alan to dinner at his favorite restaurant. After dinner and a little small talk, Conrad asked what was up. Alan leaned forward, **Bougainville could have started World War Three at Guadalcanal. Now the President wants to remind the NIS that we don’t want any problems. I imagine the NIS has already heard from the CIA. But the state department wants you to hear it from state department. **

Conrad frowned for a second and he replied, **We already got that message from your CIA, so why repeat it. ** Alan replied, **We don’t want any misunderstandings, you see the State Department feels that with the CIA you’ll get a wink and a nod with the lecture. We just want it be known that no matter how understanding the no matter what the CIA says about how the United States will react don’t count on it. The is a lot more at play and the President wants peace not war. **

Conrad considered what Alan had told him, it was true that the CIA was a lot more supportive of the South African government than the rest of the United States government. But they were no more trusted by the South African government than the American State Department. He also knew that some in the NIS were looking forward to a war breaking out. With the rest of the world at war, the South African government could then take what some called necessary measures to deal with the kaffir problem.

While Conrad sympathized with their attitudes. But he was not so sure that a full scale nuclear war would in the long run be a good thing for anyone on the planet. But on the other hand, it would allow the South Africa government to explore new and more decisive options in dealing with certain problem elements. Finally, Conrad replied, **I will tell my superiors what you said. ** Alan relaxed a bit and he smiled, then he asked, **Would you like another glass of wine? ** Conrad nodded his head and the three of them had another round of wine placed in front of them. Conrad commented to Erica, **Erica I would appreciate if you did not talk about what was said. ** Erica nodded her head, she had relatives in the security services and they had told tales about overly talkative people and where they ended up.

Then Erica went off to the bathroom, Conrad decided he had an opportune moment to reveal a bit of information the Americans would kill for, **A bit of information was received by our operatives and it relates to a Soviet ship that docked in the port of Lobito a day ago. A submarine came in with it and it received supplies from the ship and then it left port. Going back on patrol I imagine. Well our operatives sent a message to our intelligence center in Windhoek Namibia. We just received the information but so far, the NIS has not decided whether to tell the CIA or not. But you might let your superiors know about that submarine but tell them not to make a big deal about it. After all you don’t want to get a friend in trouble. ** Alan smiled but at the same time he was on his guard Conrad did nothing to just be nice. He was up to something but the odds were the information was indeed correct. Well Jake would get an earful tomorrow and if the State department scooped the CIA on a bit of information so much the better.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Coming back to a couple of points:

Poland and the GDR. The GDR was in open rebellion squashed by military force. I wonder what kind of economic life is going on there but I am pretty sure that it will be hard for the WP to have trains run on time, electricity in the barracks, I wonder if any street signs shows the right direction and somehow I am sure that a lot of heavy agricultural equipment will block roads in front of WP forces. Poland had just 4 years ago the big solidarnosc movement with more than 10 million members in months. If the Red Army was hated somewhere, it was Poland, so moving any troops here will also raise serious problems.

Innergerman border and totally incompetent commanders on the western side. This border was heavily fortified by the GDR to prevent people from getting to the west. It was impossible to walk over, run trucks over and even tanks would have had a hard time for an initial crossing while any western defenders could sit in camouflaged and fortified positions and had a perfect killing zone for any WP soldier trying to get over it. Have a look at Wikipedia what kind of obstacle for any attack to the west the GDR had created. Along the border 1.3 million mines were laid.

There were only 17(!) crossings, 9 of them were train, so not suitable for any supply deliveries. Other roads simply did not exist. So the NATO knows perfectly well that all supply that the WP needs to fight on NATO territory needs to go through those 8 roads (ok, once the WP catches the first railway stations on FRG territory the rail can be used as well). Even if the NATO had no idea about where exactly WP troops are (with all the time for intel they should know pretty exactly where which WP unit is) those places in the border which the WP needs are pretty much known.

So the obvious solution is to have a couple dozen M109 and maybe even some M110 ready to start hitting those roads the moment the shooting starts. HE with timed fuse makes nice big craters in roads and make them unusable for trucks pretty fast. OK this can be repaired but as long as the NATO can have artillery in range of the 17 places it will be hard to get them to working condition. An initial barrage of 1.500 shots and then a dozen or so per hour…

17 places to cross the border that´s it. And you can only start clearing the mines and the other barricades once you are so far into NATO territory that those doing the clearing can no longer be shot at by Infantry and it will give you no additional roads. NATO would have to be completely stupid not to have those few places bombarded immediately and so cut off the supply for the WP.
 
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