Seven Days to the River Rhine: the Third World War - a TL
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
- Start date
Never seen a TL dealing with a PRC that goes more or less unscathed after WWIII, that could be interesting.
For some reason, I am sure that in the ITTL alternative stories about the Second World War, a young People's Commissar Usrinov will die much more often.
I wonder why...
Fixed.
I know. I just used the term as an umbrella term for the whole thing. The invasion is seen as part of the Prague Spring.
Well, it's what they tried to accomplish with the Stalin Note.
Godhand Void
Banned
It's kinda like an acknowledgement that the status quo favours the West and that the USSR would gain a lot by the end of the arms race because it can't compete. No Germany border, no arms race to the same degree.
That's true, but 1952 isn't 1983.
All notions of a unified and neutral capitalist Germany died in 1952 after the rejection of the Stalin Note and the decision of the Second Party Conference of the SED to begin with the construction of socialism in the GDR. And all notions of a German Confederation (along the lines of the Chinese "one country, two systems" theory) died with Walter Ulbricht. The SED officially dismissed the idea of German unification in 1974. All references to German unification were removed from the constitution the same year. To quote Erich Honecker in an interview with the American news agency AP published in Neues Deutschland on June 4th 1974:
"The fascist "Third Reich" went down in the fire of the Second World War, you are right about that. Two independent German states with fundamentally different social systems came into being. That was a process that nobody can reverse and in which cultural traditions and family relationships cannot change anything. Of course, traditions exist, and insofar as they are progressive, they are fully nurtured in our state. Family relationships, which of course become looser simply as new generations grow up, need not wither away. Family relationships do not have to be burdensome for the development of good neighborly relations between two independent and sovereign states ... they are by no means a hindrance, but an advantage. But the fact is: there are two states, the socialist GDR and the capitalist FRG, which are developing in fundamentally different ways, and there are citizens of the GDR and citizens of the FRG. Normal relations between these two states can only be ones of peaceful coexistence. On its solid foundation, things work out for the benefit of the people.
Talking today about what you call "coming together in the future" is pointless. One thing is certain: socialism and capitalism cannot be brought under one roof. Politicians from Western countries have also repeatedly emphasized that they share the same view. For the GDR there is no going back to capitalism, and the road to socialism in the FRG is an internal matter of our neighboring country. So, as I said, only relations of peaceful coexistence between the two German states are really possible. The people of our republic understand that very well, at any rate, no one here has any interest in the "blessings" of capitalism; The people of the GDR have chosen the socialist path once and for all."
Furthermore, why would the Soviets throw the GDR under the bus in such a scenario? What do they have to gain? IMHO, realistically the Soviet demands regarding Germany would've been something along the lines of the following in such a scenario:
1.) The neutralization and demilitarization of the FRG.
2.) A solution to the Berlin question. The position of the SED and the CPSU was that all of Berlin belonged to the GDR, however under Kurshchev they were willing to grant West Berlin the status of a free city. I doubt they'd be ready to make this concessions under such circumstances.
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Chapter V: Day Three: Night Time Nuclear Warfare, November 12th 1983.
Fair enough, I made several edits in the chapters posted so far. The Soviet conditions for peace now are:
- A neutral and demilitarized West Germany
- Removal of foreign troops from West Germany
- West Berlin transitioning to East German control
And now, without further ado, I present, the next update. It's time to go nuclear:
Chapter V: Day Three: Night Time Nuclear Warfare, November 12th 1983.
It was 00:01 AM, Western European time, on Saturday November 12th 1983 and that meant the NATO ultimatum to the Warsaw Pact to cease and desist had expired one minute ago. The intense fighting across West Germany continued during the night and nothing seemed to happen, which seemed to confirm Moscow’s assessment that the enemy had been bluffing all along. Defence Minister Ustinov and Chief of Staff Ogarkov, who had made the decision to call this so-called bluff, would soon find out they’d been terribly wrong. The threat was real.
Orders were issued from the Central Government War Headquarters in Wiltshire by Chief of the General Staff Field Marshal John Stanier, of course with the permission of Prime Minister Thatcher and Defence Secretary Michael Heseltine. RAF Marham in Norfolk, East Anglia, was ordered to equip two Panavia Tornados with two WE.177A tactical free-fall gravity nuclear bombs each. These weapons had a variable yield of 0.5 or 10 kilotons and the latter setting was chosen.
The first nuclear strike of the Third World War would take place on Saturday November 12th 1983 at 01:15 AM Western European time. The two Royal Air Force Panavia Tornados departed from RAF Marham under the cover of night, and flew near sea level to avoid detection by Soviet radar for as long as possible. They maintained a speed of approximately Mach 1.2 and covered the distance to the Hamburg area in 25 minutes, dropping their payloads about ten kilometres southeast of the city directly over enemy tanks and infantry (however unfortunate, some Dutch defending units became collateral damage). Four 10 kiloton blasts lit up the night sky as if four extra suns had appeared, eliminating tens of thousands of Soviet troops, hundreds of armoured vehicles and hundreds more artillery pieces at once.
The Soviet 2nd Guards Army was forced to withdraw and soldiers on both sides began digging old-fashioned WW I style trenches and foxholes just outside the city, like their grandfathers and great-grandfathers in 1914. Here and there barbed wire entanglements, anti-tank obstacles and minefields appeared. These primitive defences would provide hardly any protection against nuclear weapons. Briefly, a stalemate seemed to emerge that Saturday in the northern sectors of the front in West Germany.
Since the total encirclement of Frankfurt in a major pocket was imminent at this point, a second nuclear strike unsurprisingly followed shortly thereafter because that city simply could not be allowed to fall. Reagan had held off for as long as possible because, despite his hard-line anti-Soviet rhetoric, he was well aware of the risks of nuclear weapons and in fact favoured disarmament. Nonetheless, two F-4 Phantom II of the 52nd Fighter Wing departed from Spangdahlem Air Base near Trier carrying a B61 thermonuclear bomb with a variable yield ranging from 0.3 to 340 kilotons. They were set at 80 kilotons and blunted the Soviet spearheads, incinerating men who were out in the open while Soviet tank crews were cooked alive inside their vehicles. Men further away were blind if they didn’t cover their eyes and looked into the flash and later began suffering from radiation sickness in varying degrees. US readiness, needless to say, was raised to DEFCON 1: this meant nuclear war imminent or already ongoing. This would be the first and last time that that ever happened.
When Grishin and the rest of the Soviet leadership had been informed of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Germany, they were perplexed. That there ought to be retaliation was questioned by no-one, but there were differences of opinion on what that retaliation should look like. Living up to his reputation of being a hardliner, Romanov proposed to destroy both the air bases where the attacks had originated from whilst deploying tactical nuclear weapons. This would be a serious escalation as it meant using nuclear weapons against Great Britain, another nuclear power, which Ustinov and Ogarkov cautioned against as Britain might then retaliate directly against the Soviet Union, threatening Soviet citizens. That might well result in a full scale nuclear exchange between East and West, which leaders on both sides still appeared to want to avoid.
Using military logic, Ustinov and Ogarkov argued that if they couldn’t conquer their objectives and drive NATO forces out, then they should destroy them. Their option would mean no nuclear weapons would be used over British soil, but otherwise it would be just as costly in terms of civilian casualties as Romanov’s plan. The others agreed with this plan, but were also of the opinion that at the very least Spangdahlem Air Base should be obliterated, thus eliminating the 52nd Fighter Wing and its ability to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. Besides that, they all agreed tactical nuclear weapons should be used to get the advance going again after Soviet forces had been reorganized, reinforced and resupplied. Orders were issued to (from north to south) the 2nd Guards, 20th Guards, 3rd Shock, 1st Guards Tank and 6th Guards Armies to regroup for a renewed offensive towards the Rhine. The Northern Group of Forces based in Poland, numbering 56.000 men, would send reinforcements and permission was given for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
In the meantime, Soviet forces continued to advance on other fronts, involving Czechoslovakian and Hungarian units. The Czechoslovak People’s Army, numbered 200.000 men once fully mobilized (including the Ground Forces, Air Force and Air Defence Force). The 1st Army stationed at Příbram numbered one tank division and three motor rifle divisions while the 4th Army at Písek counted two tank divisions and two motor rifle divisions. Czechoslovak military doctrine prescribed large tank columns spearheading infantry assaults. While the armoured columns secured objectives, the infantry would provide close support with mortars, snipers, anti-tank guns and medium artillery. The majority of the soldiers in the Ground Forces were recruited through conscription, compulsory military service of 24 months for all males between 18 and 27. It was backed up by the Central Group of Forces which numbered 85.000 men and consisted of two tank divisions, three mechanized infantry divisions, three missile brigades, an artillery brigade, and an airborne assault brigade. Its commander was Colonel General Grigory Borisov.
The Hungarian People’s Army was smaller and weaker, numbering only 100.000 men and using large quantities of outdated weapons like T-55 tanks and WW II era howitzers and only smaller amounts of more modern T-72 tanks and 2S1 122 mm and 2S3 152 mm self-propelled guns. Its conscripts were poorly trained. The Hungarian People’s Army was backed up by the Soviet Southern Group of Forces though. The Southern Group of Forces, under the command of Colonel General Konstantin Kochetov, was composed of two tank and two motor rifle divisions and numbered approximately 65.000 men.
The Czechoslovak People’s Army and units of the Central Group of Forces had advanced to within 50 kilometres of Nuremberg despite fierce resistance from the West German II Corps and the city’s fall seemed but a matter of time. The use of tactical nuclear weapons was almost certainly considered by NATO, but the decision was postponed. The reason was that this part of the front had a lower priority, and because it was decided to err on the side of caution when it came to escalating even further. Most importantly, the Czechoslovak-Soviet advance produced an increasingly long salient.
Further south the Austrian Armed Forces caused the Hungarians and Colonel General Kochetov’s forces lots of trouble, so they couldn’t adequately cover the flank of Borisov’s Central Group of Forces. They had attacked Austria despite its status as a neutral, non-NATO power. Austria had slightly more than 80.000 men in active service and almost 200.000 militiamen once fully mobilized. This force numbering 280.000 men would face an invasion force of 130.000 men, or in other words less than half their own size. To prevent the use of tactical nuclear weapons on Austrian territory by NATO to block enemy approach routes through Upper Austria, the Austrian military developed the Raumverteidigung (Area Defence) concept, which envisioned that Austrian forces would delay, harass and decimate Warsaw Pact forces with determined, sustained and costly resistance along their expected axis of advance.
After the element of surprise had produced a brief and quick advance, Austrian forces managed to grind the invaders to a complete halt at the outskirts of Vienna and began preparing for a counteroffensive. The French Army’s II Corps would come to reinforce them, but it would take seven days for them to mobilize and reach the frontlines. This was the third day of the war, however, and unfortunately pugnacious Austrian resistance only served to add Austrian targets to the planned Soviet nuclear counterstrike.
The 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division – which resorted under the 46th Air Army and belonged to the Long Range Aviation branch of the Soviet Air Force – was ordered to carry out the gruesome task of delivering the Soviet nuclear counterattack. Four Tu-22 supersonic medium bombers departed from Babruysk Air Base and flew to their designated targets at Mach 1.3. Each one carried a Kh-22 anti-ship missile that could also be used as an air-to-surface missile, equipped with a warhead with a variable yield between 350 kilotons and 1 megaton.
The devastating Soviet response to NATO’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in Germany came after slightly over three hours around 04:30 AM local time. The first one hit Hamburg while the second hit Rhein-Main Air Base at Frankfurt, each with the full 1 megaton power. In both cases a major city was left in ruins and countless were killed in an instant while many more were injured to varying degrees and on the run, trying to get away from the disaster zone and from the dangerous fallout. Spangdahlem Air Base was annihilated by a 1 megaton blast, which wiped nearby villages off the map. The base was located 30 kilometres north-northeast of the city of Trier, which suffered some minor damage: roof tiles came down and glass surfaces such as windows shattered in the entire city, some with enough force to cause injury.
Vienna and its defenders were wiped out by another 1 megaton warhead carried by a Kh-22 cruise missile and the Austrian Army’s defences collapsed, forcing them to rapidly retreat westward and form new Alpine defences. The city that Mozart and Beethoven had once called home, was just another pile of rubble now. As the Austrians had feared, NATO tactically deployed four B61 bombs in Upper Austria, each one set at 50 kilotons, to stop the Warsaw Pact advance. They were delivered by F-16s flying from Aviano Air Base in northern Italy, which hosted the US Air Force’s 31st Fighter Wing. Daylight was coming, but that wouldn’t provide any relief as the third day of the Third World War continued.
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In urban warfare, especially in a large, encircled city (or housing a large force in/just outside), hitting the city is the only way to dislodge them. Either way, if they are around the city's outskirts, the city will still take massive damage. Generally, there is no way to use a 1 megaton device anywhere near a city without massive collateral. Even a 340kt device like a full power B-61 would still completely obliterate a city, making the line between strategic and tactical almost moot.
Last known footage of the world just before the End. (colorized):
Love your taste in video games, but that scene gave me nightmares when I was kid!
Just saw this timeline now. Definitely subbed!
How timely this story came on the 40th anniversary of 1983.
How timely this story came on the 40th anniversary of 1983.
I remember the Able Archer timeline by @giobastia written exactly 10 years ago on this month (first post published on May 18, 2013).
ABLE ARCHER 83: Timeline of a Third World War in 1983
My rules for a Alternative History of World War III Writing an alternative history of an hypothetical World War III is a very difficult task, mainly because there is an over-production of fictions, models an hypothesis on what it could have been. Every historian or alt-historian has his own...
www.alternatehistory.com
This was timely for the 30th anniversary of 1983.
rndbabylon
Banned
Excellent TL! Very grim but also thrilling, don't wanna stop reading
In the book Alas, Babylon (1959) it's strongly implied that China is unscathed following a nuclear WWIII. Very minor plot point, just background noise as it's set in a rural community in post nuclear Florida but still interesting.