Segregation in a Confederate Victory

[Kaiser Tito]

If the Confederates had won the Civil War, what effect would it have on segregation in the remaining Union states? The states of Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware all had jim crow laws, would they be allowed to still do so when a third of the country split off for the pursuit of oppression against blacks? And if later on if the CSA collapses to racial/class riots between 1880-1920 and Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia tried to rejoin the union, would they be allowed to introduce segregation as an alternative to slavery or would a more radical congress force states that wish to join to respect equality between races?

To me it depends a lot on how much losing the south radicalizes abolitionists.

 

[Ciryatur]

If the Confederates had won the Civil War, what effect would it have on segregation in the remaining Union states? The states of Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware all had jim crow laws, would they be allowed to still do so when a third of the country split off for the pursuit of oppression against blacks? And if later on if the CSA collapses to racial/class riots between 1880-1920 and Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia tried to rejoin the union, would they be allowed to introduce segregation as an alternative to slavery or would a more radical congress force states that wish to join to respect equality between races?

To me it depends a lot on how much losing the south radicalizes abolitionists.

Northern States were segregated before the war and would continue to be so afterwards. For example, in 1838, Pennsylvania amended their State Constitution for only "white freemen", New Jersey did so in 1807, and New York for non-propertied blacks in 1821 (also removing the property requirements for whites). Ohio, Indiana, Illinois severely restricted the movement of blacks into their territory shortly after Statehood, and Indiana banned it entirely.

So if in 1920, the northern slice of the CSA wants to rejoin the Union, they could probably get away with only banning slavery. Very few of those in power in the North would bat an eye at segregation because they were already doing it.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Northern States were segregated before the war and would continue to be so afterwards. For example, in 1838, Pennsylvania amended their State Constitution for only "white freemen", New Jersey did so in 1807, and New York for non-propertied blacks in 1821 (also removing the property requirements for whites). Ohio, Indiana, Illinois severely restricted the movement of blacks into their territory shortly after Statehood, and Indiana banned it entirely.

So if in 1920, the northern slice of the CSA wants to rejoin the Union, they could probably get away with only banning slavery. Very few of those in power in the North would bat an eye at segregation because they were already doing it.

Just figured that the loss could've possible led to a more radical approach to civil rights to differentiate from the south and gain the moral high ground, though can't say I'd be surprised by an opposite outcome.

 

[Johnrankins]

Actually I think "Cold War logic" means that it is likely that the North progresses somewhat quicker than OTL. Note I am saying "Somewhat quicker" not "A multi-racial utopia" and that would be over time.

 

[James XI]

Just figured that the loss could've possible led to a more radical approach to civil rights to differentiate from the south and gain the moral high ground, though can't say I'd be surprised by an opposite outcome.

Yeah, I agree, there are so many plausible paths, I have a hard time ranking their likelihood. Either or both sides fragmenting behind different priorities seems as likely as both sides entrenching.

 

[NolanFoster]

A key question is if American nationalism moves in the direction of continuing the prewar trends. It could continue to demand the restoration of the union, and escalate anti slavery sentiments to the point abolitionism becomes wholly mainstream and spills over to civil rights in general in the north, and then that can lead to a movement for reforms to create the kind of society Americans believe a restored post-disunion country should be in direct rebuke to the confederate system.

Alternatively, some may want abolitionism and all feelings of human rights and equality for blacks to be discredited and blamed for the end of the union, and they may even want to double down on the racism of OTL, or go all out and expel blacks from the country.

I could see things going either way, or both. Possibly along party lines. What kind of shape is the Republican party in after the war? So much depends on the details of your timeline, like how did the south gain independence? Did a copperhead win in 1864, in which case yeah American politics is going to shift hard to the right, or was it a product of British intervention, potentially letting hostile sentiments be projected at Europe and those who failed to support the war to victory instead?

 

[Kaiser Tito]

A key question is if American nationalism moves in the direction of continuing the prewar trends. It could continue to demand the restoration of the union, and escalate anti slavery sentiments to the point abolitionism becomes wholly mainstream and spills over to civil rights in general in the north, and then that can lead to a movement for reforms to create the kind of society Americans believe a restored post-disunion country should be in direct rebuke to the confederate system.

Alternatively, some may want abolitionism and all feelings of human rights and equality for blacks to be discredited and blamed for the end of the union, and they may even want to double down on the racism of OTL, or go all out and expel blacks from the country.

I could see things going either way, or both. Possibly along party lines. What kind of shape is the Republican party in after the war? So much depends on the details of your timeline, like how did the south gain independence? Did a copperhead win in 1864, in which case yeah American politics is going to shift hard to the right, or was it a product of British intervention, potentially letting hostile sentiments be projected at Europe and those who failed to support the war to victory instead?

What would be the best and worst case scenarios to start with?

 

[NolanFoster]

What would be the best and worst case scenarios to start with?

The best case scenario is a war which despite being lost leaves a strong Republican party, and most importantly one that continues the direction of the GOP before the war and that of the historical radical Republicans after the war. Its platform must demand the restoration of the union and the Monroe doctrine, and welcome into its tent abolitionists, labor, farmers, proto-socialists and populists, and middle class reformer movements that broaden its reach. It must tie all of these causes into a knot that is uncuttable to its opposition and brings on the politics of the populist era, the progressive era, and the New Deal early. Think about a Christian social democratic movement which is American nationalist and supports a strong military policy against the Confederacy and the European powers, and a conscious anticolonial policy to boot. If the Republican party becomes the dominant party under that platform, that kind of environment would be the best to begin broaching even the kinds of ideas about race and rejection of racism that took until the late 20th century or later to thrive in our timeline. And much of this is not an illogical outcome of the simple needs to regain the ground lost during the war, prevent the loss of faith in the American system from turning into the growth of radical currents on the right or left, differentiate and ideologically attack the confederacy to undermine it, and reassert the US and its interests on the world stage.

The worst case scenario could be an utter disaster for the union at Gettysburg which could lead to the resistance to the draft not just culminating in a one off uprising in New York, but turning into a broad based popular movement against the war across the country, leading to the Democrats being emboldened enough to nominate some pro-confederate like Seymour - and winning. That turn of events would be the death of the Republican party and the end of all moral force and political capital in the hands of anyone that even sounds like an abolitionist. Riots against the war would have full license to turn into racial pogroms everywhere.

 

[Aghasverov]

Would be ironic indeed if, after the slave-based agricultural economy collapses (which IMO inevitably it would) and some sort of gradual emancipation ensues, the southern states decide strict segregation is unfeasible, unrealistic, potentially expensive.... after all, black people are everywhere... whereas in the northern states, with a smaller black population overall but with more blacks concentrated in fewer places, segregation persists for longer...
Not necessarily saying this is likely, just saying it's possible... in my own experience I have known some very racist attitudes from some very northern people...

 

[Johnrankins]

Would be ironic indeed if, after the slave-based agricultural economy collapses (which IMO inevitably it would) and some sort of gradual emancipation ensues, the southern states decide strict segregation is unfeasible, unrealistic, potentially expensive.... after all, black people are everywhere... whereas in the northern states, with a smaller black population overall but with more blacks concentrated in fewer places, segregation persists for longer...
Not necessarily saying this is likely, just saying it's possible... in my own experience I have known some very racist attitudes from some very northern people...

It is certainly possible but the odds are pretty long.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

If the Confederates had won the Civil War, what effect would it have on segregation in the remaining Union states? The states of Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware all had jim crow laws, would they be allowed to still do so when a third of the country split off for the pursuit of oppression against blacks? And if later on if the CSA collapses to racial/class riots between 1880-1920 and Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia tried to rejoin the union, would they be allowed to introduce segregation as an alternative to slavery or would a more radical congress force states that wish to join to respect equality between races?

To me it depends a lot on how much losing the south radicalizes abolitionists.

Even if the Jim Crow laws are averted, segregation would exist in practice. It would just be private enterprises enforcing it on their premises and people refusing to sell property to black people.