Season of Violence: The Fall of Apartheid in South Africa

Introduction - I

SpookyBoy

Banned
Season of Violence: The Fall of Apartheid in South Africa
(old draft)

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First, some background music...


This is a timeline based on an idea I have had for a long time - a violent end to the apartheid era in an alternate 1990s. Even after Mandela was released from prison in 1990 in OTL, South Africa was a very unstable place, and in between then and the ANC's historic election victory in 1994, perhaps became even more so, with oft-overlooked incident such as the Bophuthatswana coup d'etat, the Bisho massacre, and even armed conflict between the ANC and the Zulu conservative Inkatha Freedom Party, with the intelligence services accused of aiding the IFP in order to forment conflict. The POD is pretty straightforward - in January 1989 in OTL, State President P.W. Botha suffered a mild stroke, causing him to resign as leader of the National Party, a resignation that was intended to be temporary while he recovered. Instead, rivals in his party, who resented his authoritarian leadership style, successfully used it as an opportunity to take control of the party and government for themselves, leading to the rise of F.W. de Klerk who embarked on a reform program and famously released Mandela from prison the following year. In this timeline he simply doesn't suffer from a stroke - allowing him to continue onwards for a few more years without significant reform, allowing a few more years for tension to grow, all whilst economic sanctions begin to take their toll on his Republic's well-being...

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26 July 1990, Cape Town, South Africa

For hours, the man had been lurking in the bushes outside of the posh state mansion. Remaining deathly silent in his camoflague paramilitary fatigues, nothing ran through his head other than his mission at hand. The way he'd managed to slip past all security, the way he'd managed to get this far on his own. He hadn't spent those years out in Angola for nothing. It was getting late. It wouldn't be long until his moment would finally arrive. Armed only with a knife, his wits, his trusty rifle and pure, irrepressable, ethnocentric zeal, he'd made it this far, and was determined to accomplish the task at hand. Suddenly, he heard something. A black armoured limousine made its way into the driveway. He picked up his rifle, and prepared himself for the moment of fate. The passenger door opened. A bald, stern-looking white man in his fifties emerged from the vehicle. The race traitor in chief had arrived! As security guards approached him so they escort him into the premises, the assassin fired a single shot.

Bang.

Blood poured out of the minister's bald, wrinkled head on to the stone path where his body laid.

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REFORMIST SOUTH AFRICAN MINISTER SHOT DEAD

AP, 27 July 1990

F.W. de Klerk, South Africa's Minister of Education and National Planning, was shot dead outside his home in Cape Town last night. The assassination comes nearly three months after he had announced support for open negotiations with the African National Congress, a banned anti-apartheid opposition group. A suspect, named by authorities as Jan Kruger, armed with a rifle, surrended himself to police peacefully. According to reports from officials, Kruger, 33, was a member of the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging, a notorious white supremacist paramilitary group. The AWB has denied involvement in the killing, and the suspect has claimed that he was acting alone. State President P.W. Botha has condemned the incident as a "barbaric act of extremism".

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Frederik Willem de Klerk (1936-1990)
 
If Apartheid ends violently the ANC are gonna have to make some changes. The armed wing of the ANC weren’t that great of Guerillas and the SADF were relatively competent
 
They didn't lose Namibia militarily, they lost it politically. The government could hold onto South Africa military pretty much forever if there's a will for it, the only competent force the SADF faced were the Cubans, and I don't think they would be able to make it into South Africa proper
 
They didn't lose Namibia militarily, they lost it politically. The government could hold onto South Africa military pretty much forever if there's a will for it, the only competent force the SADF faced were the Cubans, and I don't think they would be able to make it into South Africa proper
why did not the south african goverment(closed franchise south africa) want to hold onto south africa?
 
I'd also like to see a larger role for the PAC in this scenario. People only know one settler one bullet. Perhaps if Robert Subokwe survives, there could be a movement towards a three way split, between the ANC, PAC,and IFP.
 
I will link to this documentary about Eugene Terre'Blanche, the AWB and the waning days of Apartheid South Africa.


And the followup documentary decades later.


The odd thing is the personal level of the people in the documentaries versus the political level. On a personal level, just as people, Terre'Blanche comes off as extremely rude. The wife and driver you sort of like as people but its a pity that they're racist militants, weird as that sentence sounds. The wife doesn't really come off as a racist militant so much as like a South African Edith Bunker who is just along for the ride because of who she married. It's like a wife going to her husbands softball games, even though she really has no interest in it other than it being her husband's activity...except with racism. Humanity is odd. When organized and angry, the AWB comes off as something incredibly dangerous, which of course it was. And otherwise, it comes off like a local BBQ of dumb, bumbling racists.
 
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