Saudi Arabia annexes North Yemen POD of 1918

Is it possible to for Saudi Arabia to Annex North Yemen with a POD of 1918?

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Sabes Tnarfopa

POD of 1918 Make North Yemen be annexed as a Permanent part of Saudi Arabia by 1939 that remains all the way to this alternate present.
When looking at how the Saudis took over many Arab Kingdoms such as the Hashemite Kingdom of Hejaz I always thought it was weird that yemen was the only independent arab country that survived being annexed by Saudi Arabia. Does it really have to be this way? Is it possible for Saudi Arabia to annex North Yemen permanently? What would be the butterflies of this? What would happen to South Yemen? Would it still become Communist? If so how long can it last? They wouldn't be a Yemeni Unification either so what would South Yemen be without North Yemen? Would there still be Civil Wars in South Yemen? Would South Yemen be more peaceful or stable or no? What would the Saudis do with North Yemen? Would it be a more stable and peaceful place? Would the Saudis invest in its infrastructure? Would the amount of Shiites that live there cause a problem? Or can Saudi Arabia handle them just like the Shiites on the Persian Gulf Coast?
Explain to me if Saudi Arabia annexing North Yemen is possible or ASB, and if it is possible tell me what would the effects be all the way to our current year!
Saudi Yemen Zoom Up.png

Saudi Arabia circa 1930's
Saudi Yemen Zoom Up 2.png

Saudi Arabia Alternate Present
 

Deleted member 109224

The Saudis annexed the Rashidi State, the Hashemite Kingdom of Hijaz, and the Idrisid Emirate of Asir. The Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen would be just one more country on the list that they take. You could argue that it'd be a tougher nut to crack, given how mountainous Yemen is, but that same logic would apply to Asir and the Saudis managed to integrate that place just fine.

Between the Shia of the Gulf Coast, the Shia of Najran, and the Shia of Yemen, would Saudi Arabia have a Shia majority?
 

Falecius

Jackson Lennock said:
The Saudis annexed the Rashidi State, the Hashemite Kingdom of Hijaz, and the Idrisid Emirate of Asir. The Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen would be just one more country on the list that they take. You could argue that it'd be a tougher nut to crack, given how mountainous Yemen is, but that same logic would apply to Asir and the Saudis managed to integrate that place just fine.

Between the Shia of the Gulf Coast, the Shia of Najran, and the Shia of Yemen, would Saudi Arabia have a Shia majority?
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Nope, and they'll crack down on the Shi'as as hard as they can. Which suggests high potential for trouble.
North Yemen is highly mountainous, and has a long tradition of rebelliousness to outside forces trying to control it, as the Ottoman Empire discovered to its chagrin. That tradition is itself partly couched in Zaydi Shi'a religious terms, which would make the Saudis especially unwelcome.
Saudi Arabia might try either to de-emphasize Wahhabism and put more effort on some form of Arabness (or Arabianness), o double down on repression and further escalate the religious conformity angle, which I believe it is more likely given how Wahhabism is deeply tied to the Saudi dynasty's legitimacy. I would expect a long-term low level Zaydi insurgency which will absorb much of Riyadh's attention and resources and would likely alter the dynamic between the dynasty and its Ikhwan religious militia - they will not be purged in what was effectively a Civil War here, but rather sent to Yemen to bleed in the purported Path of God. Not good for the Zaydis, who will probably experience quite nasty massacres.
Saudi-British relationships will be worse: Ryad would now probably want to unify the Peninsula altogether and will also be hostile to British-supported Hashimite monarchies to the North.
Over time, this may easily lead to a form of Saudi-sponsored ethnationalist/religious Arabism that, however, will entirely lack the secular dimension of Arabist ideals widespread in Iraq, Syria and Egypt.
As a reaction, perhaps the intercommunal nationalism in these countries would give less prominence to Panarabist discourses. Somewhat leftist versions of Greater Syrian nationalism and Pharaonism?
Also, there is going to be a Yemeni nationalist discourse emphasising the legacy of Sheba and Himyar (and thus perhaps openly inclusive of the Jewish community, which official Saudi line would dislike). Saudi Arabia is probably a bit less West-oriented here, more insular and militant. Still probably ultimately more on the Western side in the Cold War due to absolute loathing of anything Communist (and oil).
 

Deleted member 109224

Falecius said:
Nope, and they'll crack down on the Shi'as as hard as they can. Which suggests high potential for trouble.
North Yemen is highly mountainous, and has a long tradition of rebelliousness to outside forces trying to control it, as the Ottoman Empire discovered to its chagrin. That tradition is itself partly couched in Zaydi Shi'a religious terms, which would make the Saudis especially unwelcome.
Saudi Arabia might try either to de-emphasize Wahhabism and put more effort on some form of Arabness (or Arabianness), o double down on repression and further escalate the religious conformity angle, which I believe it is more likely given how Wahhabism is deeply tied to the Saudi dynasty's legitimacy. I would expect a long-term low level Zaydi insurgency which will absorb much of Riyadh's attention and resources and would likely alter the dynamic between the dynasty and its Ikhwan religious militia - they will not be purged in what was effectively a Civil War here, but rather sent to Yemen to bleed in the purported Path of God. Not good for the Zaydis, who will probably experience quite nasty massacres.
Saudi-British relationships will be worse: Ryad would now probably want to unify the Peninsula altogether and will also be hostile to British-supported Hashimite monarchies to the North.
Over time, this may easily lead to a form of Saudi-sponsored ethnationalist/religious Arabism that, however, will entirely lack the secular dimension of Arabist ideals widespread in Iraq, Syria and Egypt.
As a reaction, perhaps the intercommunal nationalism in these countries would give less prominence to Panarabist discourses. Somewhat leftist versions of Greater Syrian nationalism and Pharaonism?
Also, there is going to be a Yemeni nationalist discourse emphasising the legacy of Sheba and Himyar (and thus perhaps openly inclusive of the Jewish community, which official Saudi line would dislike). Saudi Arabia is probably a bit less West-oriented here, more insular and militant. Still probably ultimately more on the Western side in the Cold War due to absolute loathing of anything Communist (and oil).
Click to expand...

If the Saudis have North Yemen, I wonder if they'd try to claim British South Yemen especially. I'm not sure they'd try to unify the whole Peninsula given the risks. Britain isn't going to surrender the gulf states to the Saudis, but I don't think a Cyprus-like agreement to hand over South Yemen if Britain retains a permanent autonomous base at Aden would be unreasonable.

There were some political intrigues in the 1940s just prior to the Arab-Israeli War. Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey had a pact to go after Syria (due to Abdullah wanting to fulfill his desires for Greater Syria) whereas the Syrians had an agreement with the Saudis and (I think) the Egyptians.

If Saudi conquers Yemen, I wonder if Uqair would go differently.
 

Deleted member 109224

Thinking about this, if Saudi Arabia were to conquer North Yemen in the 1934 Saudi-Yemeni War that would lead to the fewest number of butterflies. By 1934 Saudi-British relations were already established, with the Saudi establishing an embassy in London in 1930. The Saudis also no longer were attempting to grab British territories by that point I think.

Anyways, the Yemenis were seen as having started the 1934 war, so there likely wouldn't be too much international complaint about the Saudis marching and taking their country. The British might be a little worried about the future of Aden though.

What's noteworthy is that if the Saudis have North Yemen, the North Yemen Civil War doesn't happen. Egypt is a bit of a winner there because The North Yemeni Civil War was a big meat grinder for them - costing 26,000 men. The Saudis likely have to deal with a North Yemeni insurgency though, and that'd likely have a socialist/communist flare to it and be supported by South Yemen and the USSR.

Given how South Yemen already supported an insurgency against Britain's client Oman in Dhofar, the Saudis using South Yemeni support of an insurgency as a basis for invading South Yemen outright seems plausible.

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Yemen and Saudi Arabia together have a population of around 64 million.
If the Saudis have to spend their oil money on North Yemen (and later on South Yemen as well) that'd be troublesome for them. That's twice as many mouths to pay off. Controlling Aden might make them invest in logistics and shipping though - diversifying their economy.
 
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Deleted member 109224

Here's a knock-on ... if Saudi Arabia conquers North Yemen, what happens to the Jewish population?

I was reading on the Jewish population of Saudi Arabia and came across a section on Najran specifically - a city the Saudis took from Yemen.

There was a small Jewish community, mostly members of Bnei Chorath, in one border city from 1934 until 1950. The Yemeni city of Najran was conquered by Saudi forces in 1934, absorbing its Jewish community, which dates to pre-Islamic times. With increased persecution, the Jews of Najran made plans to evacuate. The local governor at the time, Amir Turki ben Mahdi, allowed the 600 Najrani Jewsa single day on which to either evacuate or never leave again. Saudi soldiers accompanied them to the Yemeni border. These Jews arrived in Saada, and some 200 continued south to Aden between September and October 1949. The Saudi King Abdulaziz demanded their return, but the Yemeni king, Ahmad bin Yahya refused, because these refugees were Yemenite Jews. After settling in the Hashid Camp (also called Mahane Geula) they were airlifted to Israel as part of the larger Operation Magic Carpet.
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According to Wiki, there were somewhere between 53,000 and 63,000 Jews in North Yemen and Aden before 1948. If they all flee Saudi Arabia, most would likely end up in Mandatory Palestine - though it's also possible they just end up parking themselves in British Yemen, British Somaliland, and Cochin. A sudden influx of 50,000 Yemenite Jews into the mandate would be significant though...

In 1945 Palestine had a population of 1,764,520 (per wiki). 1,061,270 (60%) were Muslim, 553,600 (31%) were Jewish, 135,500 (8%) were Christian, and 14,100 (1%) were other. Alt-Palestine in 1945 has a population of 1,814,520. 1,061,270 are Muslim (58.5%), 603,600 are Jewish (33.3%), 135,500 are Christian (7.5%), and 14,100 (1%) are other. Small percentage changes can be a big difference though - especially depending on where these Yemenite Jews settle or if their going to the mandate potentially prompts other Jews to relocate for some reason or another.
 
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Deleted member 92195

I read this article a long time ago and it talks about possible splits in Sovereign states in the Near East. Some of those splits could have happened if it were not for superior powers continuing to meddle. However, the article explains that in a possible twist, South Yemen could be annexed by Saudi Arabia, not North Yemen.

Near East.jpg


Sources:
 
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