Russia Resurgent - A TL

[Sarthak]

I didn't just mean the perception of Iran within the population of the Neo-con geopolitics wonks, I mean among the general public of the west. In our world, while American conservatives and liberals are basically in agreement that Iran isn't a good place to live, there is a decent number of people (they tend to be liberals) who are aware that there are a large amount of people in the country who want political and social reform, and a smaller number understands that there even is some level of official recognition of these people by Iran's political system; Not much, it should be said, but it's democratic in comparison to the Saudis. How could it not have become a point during the US presidential campaign that Iran had just come out of its own elections with it's reformers winning in a landslide, for example?

Even if speeches to woo over the general public can't display a nuance about Iran, in their heads American political figures have to be thinking about ten or twenty years into the future; if their partisan line is to foam at the mouth for regime change in Iran whatever the cost, can they be sure they aren't just demanding something that's probably going to happen by itself anyway, with the cost of continuing to push Iran into Russia's arms? Russia will then have a Middle East ally that it will be able to rely on more and more as time goes on, as the two socially liberalise and accept more of the same ideological groundings. While the US is entangled with Saudi Arabia, an ally that already by that point is proven thoroughly unreliable and within which barely anything other than a total social 'reset' ala 1789 or 1917 will modify in the foreseeable future a society that the vast majority of Americans despise.

Surely somebody in the American foreign policy scene is thinking that the cost of rapprochement with Iran is worth it if it means pulling a potential valuable ally out of the Russian/Eurasian orbit? For now, I understand it being a minority position, but it couldn't be unthinkable, right?

There are few who will actually raise the point, however after 40 years of hostility, and with Iran being openly allied with Russia, those kind of people will remain decisively in the minority. However yes you are correct in assuming that the public opinion in America against Iran is much more lukewarm ittl than otl.

How is it redundant? Do you mean that the 'nugget of truth' about the post-soviet states factually just isn't there, or are you talking about their perception from abroad?

Both. It was true for around 1990 to 1998, but after that, when the Stan's economies started to improve and more inter-CSTO and inter-CIS cooperation, they've pulled ahead as a fast growing economies.

 

[Sarthak]

I can see a lot of rhetorical fodder being made in the blogosphere about America's grumbling about Russia's economic deals with the EU. Finally, 60 years later, the Marshal Plan has gone through a roleswap, with Russia fronting the help to Europe and America trying to block it. I get France, what with being the cornerstone of the EU's anti-Russia bloc, but this just seems like a stupid diplomatic hill for America to die on (but then Rudy Guliani is POTUS, so...), they just look like they trying to dictate Europe's economic policy to them while showing they have no will to enforce that. With Britain not joining in with the Iraq War and collaborating in economics and even force projection with Russia, might it be that France, in its pact of opposition with the US towards Russia, gets the reputation in Europe of being America's lapdog?

To stop Russian influence in France's neocolonies.....most probably yes, France will probably be getting more flak as America's lapdog ittl. Britain is becoming much more independent ittl than otl, though they remained allied.

 

[Sarthak]

Is what Russia doing near Afghanistan just a defensive measure or is it a continuation of the Great Game?

kinda a defensive measure and a threat

 

[Sarthak]

Much of the French interest in persuing European integration had been to boost its economy and to keep itself surrounded in Europe with friendly powers, so that France could project power abroad and remain, if not a superpower, then at least a nation of sufficient weight that it must be respected. Leaving the EU means possibly putting a bullet in the head of decades of entanglement between its economy and the economies of its neighbours, as well as taking itself off of the scales that are currently balanced between the pro-Russia and anti-Russia factions of Europe. If France is stuck trying to work out how its economy and international trade is supposed to function, and within the EU it's Germany, Britain, and Italy pushing for greater collaboration with Russia with the only voices of resistance being a bunch of poor post-Communist newbies, then it is really difficult to see how France's geopolitical position is improved over where it is now, where already Russia has displayed the leverage to crowbar France's neo-empire in Africa away from it. And yes, Brexit was also a clearly idiotic move that still happened anyway, but it should be clear that the situation is not so comparable to Britain IOTL. Our EU at least is fairly united on its position regarding Russia, the only main difference is how intense that suspicion and disapproval is, France would have to know where the consensus in the EU will shift without them supplying the No. 2 voice. Also, France was occupied in the Second World War, it fully knows, culturally as well as politically, how badly things can go for itself if it cocks up its geopolitical strategy, a French President in David Cameron's position wouldn't think to run France through such risks, probably even if they knew it would cost them the election. Better to have won and then crushingly lose after one term, than to earn two terms and use them to force France to give up much of the international influence it has.

If a populist came to power in France, i don't really think 'it's not a good idea' is going to stop any such attempts, but barring that, yeah, any Frexit attempt would be foolhardy and not in the interests of France and the French economy.

 

[Chernabog90]

yeah but even though France didn’t like how the Eu is going to have a trade deal with russia, i kinda doubt they would try to leave the eu

 

[panpiotr]

Very interesting update. I am really curious how will Russo-European relations look in the future.

 

[hudi]

true our artist wine loving friends are to proud of themselves

 

[Drunkrobot]

If a populist came to power in France, i don't really think 'it's not a good idea' is going to stop any such attempts, but barring that, yeah, any Frexit attempt would be foolhardy and not in the interests of France and the French economy.

They would have to get through France's election system, which is literally designed to stop them. The traditional left and right are for the EU, even if they have issues with it they understand that outright ditching it is idiotic, a blow to France likely to take an extremely long time to heal. In short, they understand to unite if euroskepticism is building up. That is why the Front Nationale were crushed in 2017, and pulverised in 2002, they had lots of willing first-round voters but basically nobody ready to switch to them for the second round. You can convince 30% of adults in a nation to support absolute nonsense, you could even get them to vote for the Nazi Party, but by that point your easy pickings are gone, and getting yourself to 50%+1, without cheating, is a different question altogether.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

imminent Sino-Russian break ?

 

[Drunkrobot]

When you say 'massive antiwar protests in America', what is meant by 'massive'? What form is the protest taking? What are its numbers? What groups are affiliating with it? Are there any politicians joining it? Associated Press is an American news media group, those are the questions that such an article would be answering.

 

[Azum]

imminent Sino-Russian break ?

That was undoubtable, China is too proud and Russia too stubborn(likely also proud enough as they shape return to the main stage) and in this TL they (will) have the ability to stand all on their own(with CSTO) as a world power.

this world will be a threeway, or four depending if EU goes with one of the other three or breaks off the tethers.

 

[Drunkrobot]

@Azum The country is not in the grip of Mao or the Gang of Four anymore, if they're going to give up an alliance with another P5 member and a huge part of their trade portfolio it seriously has to be worth it. The stand-off against Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US in the West Pacific, and salami-slicing Southeast Asia are already big commitments, what opportunities does moving against Russia now give China that it could actually exploit? Contesting for primary influence in TTL Central Asia would like biting into a stone.

 

[Marco Rivignani]

If a populist came to power in France, i don't really think 'it's not a good idea' is going to stop any such attempts, but barring that, yeah, any Frexit attempt would be foolhardy and not in the interests of France and the French economy.

Frexit would be a suicide for France in every way imaginable. You just have to look at what happened here in Italy after the 2018 elections: the Lega Nord and Movimento 5 Stelle parties were elected thanks to their strong anti-Europe rhetoric, then softened up and in the end, the government fell. IMAO the most likely outcome is something like what happened in Greece after Alexis Tsipras: there would be much talk about Frexit after the first round which will most likely be inconclusive and after some economic downturn following the scare of a Le Pen victory the Centre-right or Left-wing contender would win. There would be mass protests, rising militia activity, the polarization of the political spectrum and in the worst-case scenario even a civil war. In the unlikely case that Le Pen wins the elections, I see her more like Orban-like figure rather than a "Hitler" ready to commit suicide.

Just one more thing: Yes, Russia and China have competing interests and some disagreements but their enemy number one is and will always be the USA. Russia has already lost India and the can't afford to lose China because it will seriously weaken its power projection capabilities in the Pacific.

 

[Drunkrobot]

@Marco Rivignani Yep, there are plausible mistakes which can create opportunities for this resurgant Russia to exploit, just as Russia has done so in the real world, and then there are "Royal Navy Home Fleet circa. 1940 drinking leaded tea" magnitude balls ups that would just be cheating to get a preconceived narrative in a blunt and simplistic way. France doing what it can to rip up the EU is more in the latter category.

 

[Azum]

@Azum The country is not in the grip of Mao or the Gang of Four anymore, if they're going to give up an alliance with another P5 member and a huge part of their trade portfolio it seriously has to be worth it. The stand-off against Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US in the West Pacific, and salami-slicing Southeast Asia are already big commitments, what opportunities does moving against Russia now give China that it could actually exploit? Contesting for primary influence in TTL Central Asia would like biting into a stone.

Not saying it will happen directly, but that these two countries' 'personalities' dont mesh together well. Not saying either will try to work against the other, but that cracks will appear that will make them look to other friends. In OTL neither really have much choice, China is as you said putting pressure on all sides - which its certainly capable of on its own and seems to be doing well enough of a job there - but Russia is pretty much universally looked at as most likely a future enemy or manipulator. Whether its the EU or its vastly more stable&developed sphere of influence, here Russia has a choice to drift away.

Obviously there is also India to consider, who seems to be friendly-ish with Russia, but doesnt have good relations with China.

 

[Sarthak]

They would have to get through France's election system, which is literally designed to stop them. The traditional left and right are for the EU, even if they have issues with it they understand that outright ditching it is idiotic, a blow to France likely to take an extremely long time to heal. In short, they understand to unite if euroskepticism is building up. That is why the Front Nationale were crushed in 2017, and pulverised in 2002, they had lots of willing first-round voters but basically nobody ready to switch to them for the second round. You can convince 30% of adults in a nation to support absolute nonsense, you could even get them to vote for the Nazi Party, but by that point your easy pickings are gone, and getting yourself to 50%+1, without cheating, is a different question altogether.

indeed, which is why i think France's politics will be getting interesting in the future of this tl.

 

[Sarthak]

imminent Sino-Russian break ?

eh not really possible until far in the future

 

[Sarthak]

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Economies of the Middle East Per Capita:-

Country	GDP Per Capita	GDP (PPP) Total ($US B)
Bahrain	$50,700​	$22.85​	​
Egypt	N/A​	N/A​	​
Iran	$24,100​	$1236​	​
Iraq	$14,900​	$219.4​	​
Israel	$35,200​	$281.9​	​
Jordan	$12,300​	$33.06​	​
Kuwait	$71,900​	$150.2​	​
Lebanon	$18,500​	$46.03​	​
Oman	$46,700​	$69.43​	​
Palestinian territories	$4,300​	$ N/A​	​
Qatar	$127,700​	$101.2​	​
Saudi Arabia	$55,200​	$581.3​	​
Syria	$2,900​	$102.5​	​
Turkey	$24,900​	$1189.9​	​
United Arab Emirates (UAE)	$67,900​	$200.4​	​
Yemen	$2,400​	$58.2​	​

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[Sarthak]

thoughts?

 

[Chernabog90]

Question, is the central asian country’s is already united, since you say central asian republic, and it seems the Egyptian civil war is going to become more a mixbowl