Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
France and Russia are screwed. Easy.
France came to breaking point in 1917, an Italian front may be the push the Germans need. Russia was already facing defeats so about 550k Romanians may hasten it.
France came to breaking point in 1917, an Italian front may be the push the Germans need. Russia was already facing defeats so about 550k Romanians may hasten it.
The war may end in 1914. The Chief of the Italian General Staff Alberto Polio (who died on July 1st) and his successor Luigi Cadorna both wanted to enter the war right away on the side of the Central Powers. On the same day Cadorna got the king's approval to send 3 army corps to Alsace, the Cabinet announced neutrality. Had Cadorna gotten his way, it seems likely that the Germans would be able to reinforce the right wing and Lorraine. Thus, the chances of Verdun and Nancy falling are much higher leading to war-altering butterflies.
Italys problem was that it was completely dependant on coal from the UK.
Also for both another issue was that they first waited to see how the first stages of the war turn out.
So, to get them to CP side you need:
1.UK stays out to make it possible for Italy to join
1.2. Alternatively have a good rail connection over the Alps to Germany
2. The initial Russian invasion into A-H is thrown back with casualties reversed, to show Italy and Romania where the war is heading to
Also for both another issue was that they first waited to see how the first stages of the war turn out.
So, to get them to CP side you need:
1.UK stays out to make it possible for Italy to join
1.2. Alternatively have a good rail connection over the Alps to Germany
2. The initial Russian invasion into A-H is thrown back with casualties reversed, to show Italy and Romania where the war is heading to
If Italy enters immediately, the Goeben probably doesn’t sail to Constantinople causing butterflies around Ottoman entry to the war.
Here's one I did earlier.
Grey Wolf
Donor
The Italian fleet will sortie with the Austrians and join up with the Goeben with aim of stopping French army transports from North Africa. At the very least, this makes things more difficult and more irregular, even if there are no actual fleet engagements. The delays in the arrivals of some corps are going to have serious repurcussions for the French, especially if Italy also sends divisions to Alsace, and the Germans are able to make an advance in that quarter. Not to mention, that France has to properly defend High Savoy, even if the Italians are not making any serious attacks there. Their overstretch is increased, while their manning issues are made worse.
Italy may even attempt an invasion of Tunisia, either because the majority of French North African forces are being sent to Europe, or to try to prevent this and hold some of them in place.
Malta is going to be in a precarious position. The British Mediterranean Fleet is headed up by battlecruisers and if they get caught by an Italian force led by dreadnoughts, they are in for a very difficult time. I would expect they are withdrawn to Gibraltar, while London panics and eventually sends the Lord Nelsons as reinforcements.
While the Ottomans might never enter the war, Italian entry probably more than offsets this, as it focuses more forces on the essential Western front. Without any need to man a defensive border against the Italians, the Austrians probably manage a bit better and would certainly offset any late-year advantage the Russians have for not having to face off against the Ottomans.
Italy is going to intervene in Albania. This may create serious tensions with Austria, but since they are allies things will work out. It also puts Montenegro's position in doubt - they are related to the Italians by marriage, and it may be possible that after a show of defence Montenegro signs a peace without losses with the Central Powers and adopts benevolent neutrality towards them.
Serbia is more screwed by all of this and its possible that its army and royal family are not getting out, short of almost total annihilation.
There won't be a Dardanelles campaign - if the Ottomans are not in the war, there is no need. Even if they are persuaded to join, getting so many troops and old ships to the Aegean past a hostile Italian fleet, not to mention the Goeben and the Austrians, would just be too much of a risk.
The question would be why and what point would Romania and Bulgaria enter the war? While Greece might be the key, don't forget that Serbian Macedonia was in San Stefano Bulgaria and the Bulgarians had long agitated for unity with the Macedonians. Romania had a secret pact with the Central Powers that Ferdinand did not want to activate, but if Bulgaria enter the war to gain Macedonia, and the balance of power is tipping decidedly in the CP's favour (with or without the Ottoman Empire) then Romania could see its options shrink to the point where honouring the agreement is a better choice than trying to remain outside. With Serbia crushed, and Greece probably not in the war, the Central Powers could promise army corps to the Romanians to enter Bessarabia, even to threaten Odessa.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Italy may even attempt an invasion of Tunisia, either because the majority of French North African forces are being sent to Europe, or to try to prevent this and hold some of them in place.
Malta is going to be in a precarious position. The British Mediterranean Fleet is headed up by battlecruisers and if they get caught by an Italian force led by dreadnoughts, they are in for a very difficult time. I would expect they are withdrawn to Gibraltar, while London panics and eventually sends the Lord Nelsons as reinforcements.
While the Ottomans might never enter the war, Italian entry probably more than offsets this, as it focuses more forces on the essential Western front. Without any need to man a defensive border against the Italians, the Austrians probably manage a bit better and would certainly offset any late-year advantage the Russians have for not having to face off against the Ottomans.
Italy is going to intervene in Albania. This may create serious tensions with Austria, but since they are allies things will work out. It also puts Montenegro's position in doubt - they are related to the Italians by marriage, and it may be possible that after a show of defence Montenegro signs a peace without losses with the Central Powers and adopts benevolent neutrality towards them.
Serbia is more screwed by all of this and its possible that its army and royal family are not getting out, short of almost total annihilation.
There won't be a Dardanelles campaign - if the Ottomans are not in the war, there is no need. Even if they are persuaded to join, getting so many troops and old ships to the Aegean past a hostile Italian fleet, not to mention the Goeben and the Austrians, would just be too much of a risk.
The question would be why and what point would Romania and Bulgaria enter the war? While Greece might be the key, don't forget that Serbian Macedonia was in San Stefano Bulgaria and the Bulgarians had long agitated for unity with the Macedonians. Romania had a secret pact with the Central Powers that Ferdinand did not want to activate, but if Bulgaria enter the war to gain Macedonia, and the balance of power is tipping decidedly in the CP's favour (with or without the Ottoman Empire) then Romania could see its options shrink to the point where honouring the agreement is a better choice than trying to remain outside. With Serbia crushed, and Greece probably not in the war, the Central Powers could promise army corps to the Romanians to enter Bessarabia, even to threaten Odessa.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Well, that's something I've seen stated numerous times.
While there are sources that clearly show that Italy was in 1913 (it obviously improved about this during the war)(see @NOMISYRRUC excellent tables) almost completly dependant on imports of coal I've never seen proof, that this came from the british isles.
Do you have any sources about that ?
@Grey Wolf
A wee side note I would like to add :
if a combined CP-flett in the med confines the british and frwench navy to the western Med the in Germany ordered supply for the ottoman army (payed with german gold already) could be shipped via the adriatic Sea and the Aegeis instead being hold off due to blocked railways (as IOTL in Serbia and restrictions by Romaian oin rail-transpot) AND the unsafe sea-lines as IOTL.
-> much more substantial equipment supply for the ottomans earlier (alliance with Germany and A-H was alread signed on 2nd August)
->earlier 'activity' by the ottoman with i.e. an attack in the Caucasus even before the IOTL Bergmann-offensive
->due to the Entente-fleet being tied down in the western Med a Gallipoli or as Kitchener proposed Alexandrette mission seem even less likely than IOTL (GB simply lacks the modern ships now necessary or it seriously endangers the North-Sea theatre)
A wee side note I would like to add :
if a combined CP-flett in the med confines the british and frwench navy to the western Med the in Germany ordered supply for the ottoman army (payed with german gold already) could be shipped via the adriatic Sea and the Aegeis instead being hold off due to blocked railways (as IOTL in Serbia and restrictions by Romaian oin rail-transpot) AND the unsafe sea-lines as IOTL.
-> much more substantial equipment supply for the ottomans earlier (alliance with Germany and A-H was alread signed on 2nd August)
->earlier 'activity' by the ottoman with i.e. an attack in the Caucasus even before the IOTL Bergmann-offensive
->due to the Entente-fleet being tied down in the western Med a Gallipoli or as Kitchener proposed Alexandrette mission seem even less likely than IOTL (GB simply lacks the modern ships now necessary or it seriously endangers the North-Sea theatre)
The source for those statistics doesn't say where the coal came from.
However, the UK was the world's biggest exporter of coal, so it's reasonable to assume that Italy bought most if not all of its imported coal from the UK.
Well, atleast Germany exported in 1913 'only' 894.632 tons ...
(taken from the official statistical yearbook)but if we look at Germanys exports to France, Belgium and Russia Germany shouldn't have much of a problem to supply Italy with anthrazite-coal.
Only 'bottle-neck' might be railway capacities, but there were since about 10 years ago (IIRC) according transit-agreements with Switzerland to use their railways too.
They were able to do it in 1935 when the British stopped supplying coal as part of the economic sanctions imposed after Italy invaded Abyssinia.
Too the coal debate i heard a phrase from my professor that was. “Italy could kill france faster than the entente could strangle it” while obviously there is a bit more context but the general idea seems to hold. The british and french cut all shipments to italy which could bring it to its knees but the time it would to for this to do so would be too long to compared to the immense damage inflicted onto france from just sheer manpower drain so britain will have to step up. And now to top it off. If romania joined then that will do something very interesting that is keep the food train to Germany going which would avoid the turnip winter it would keep conditions much better on and off the front. And you wont see falkanheim fall. This mean no U.S.W which means no America which i think will lead to the entente eventually coming to terms in 1918. Now another quick fact is with no italian front we will see a much better off ottomans from the lack of galipoli and austro- hungarian empire which provides countless divisions to fight off any russia advance. But most importantly if russia falls around a similar timeframe we are going to see one hell of a spring offensive as the austrians can provide the bulk of occupations while the germans can bring their whole eastern army and possibly some austrian and maybe if you were to stretch it ottoman forces so yeah they will have the forces to burn maybe even enough to break france with assistance on th the italian front. If not break than at least hold onto otl gains.
What do you guys think?
What do you guys think?
Italy takes Tunisia, maybe Corsica from France and Cyprus, Malta, maybe Gibralter from UK. Italian forces team with AH to push hard into France, though I'm not sure how the French forces near Nice are arranged in 1914. Germany has the manpower to push harder and faster, if nothing else they gain more territory and may put Paris in range of the strongest artillery.
trajen777
Banned
1 per origonal agreement, 2 itialian armys transfers to Alsace
2 germans have two additional armies to drive thru Belgium into France
3 french have less troops transfer from Africa ( itialian and aus fleet)
4 french have to guard itialian front
Does France fall? If not
5 ah in much better shape in the east with 27% of its forces not on itialian front
6 Serbia crushed in 15
7 extra 500 k Romanian troops a nightmare for Russia with the whole ah army in the east
8 war ends 17
2 germans have two additional armies to drive thru Belgium into France
3 french have less troops transfer from Africa ( itialian and aus fleet)
4 french have to guard itialian front
Does France fall? If not
5 ah in much better shape in the east with 27% of its forces not on itialian front
6 Serbia crushed in 15
7 extra 500 k Romanian troops a nightmare for Russia with the whole ah army in the east
8 war ends 17
gurgu
Banned
in OTL Bulgaria joined CP as soon it was clear OE had won. If italy in 1915 is going for Albania than Bulgaria will join in order to take macedonia and thus the Serbian army would be encircled( no escape to Corfu).
Romania in OTL joined to take Transylvania but failed miserable( raped from Austrian-Bulgarian troop led by mackensen) so if they are more smart and understand that Russia is doomed, maybe a bit later than Bulgaria? also to avoid any pressures to return dobruja.
The OE might join the CP anyway, yes italy took Libya just few years before but also England took Egypt long before, and Suez is far more valuable.
If the OE join and Egypt is overrun, Italians can focus on reaching central Africa to help von lettow or simply push to reach morocco and seize control of the Mediterranean.IF they manage to do it, what stops spain from trying to retake gibraltar, and opening a lethal third front on france and a crucial one on Portugal.
possible or ASB?
Grey Wolf
Donor
Everything is dependant, isn't it. so it's possible. If you look at World War Two everyone rushed to join in at the death as soon as it was obvious they would have no bad consequences, even Turkey eventually declared war on the Third Reich. So, if the Entente is reeling and about to collapse, you can certainly imagine that Spain will make a play for Gibraltar, maybe Sweden enter the war against the Russians etc.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf