Right Side Up: A History of the Space Transportation System

A 168 inch Hubble and KH-12, with color pictures ? YOWZA. THIS. IS. GREAT.

With a 94 inch mirror KH-11 could see details as small as 4 inches. With such monster you could nearly count the hair atop the head of Gorbachev (if he hadn't been bald)

Same goes with Hubble. Even with its "small" 94 inch mirror it already made bold contribution to the exoplanet quest, finding traces of oxygen into exoplanet atmospheres.
IOTL there were plans for a monster LEO space telescope, the Large Deployable Reflector to be assembled at a space station. But who need it ITTL ? :p

http://giphy.com/gifs/b5LTssxCLpvVe/html5

Man, why do all the alternate timelines get the cool toys, and our OTL doesn't? *pouts*

Despite Airbus offer a Solution: Adeline

I have to admit, that's definitely one of the more elegant takes on engine return and reuse I've seen.
 
Polish Eagle wrote:
Atlas-Centaur did a great job IOTL, when the competition was the OTL Shuttle and Titan III. ITTL, its price tag makes it uncompetitive with ride-sharing on the Shuttle, and the mods to make the first stage reusable make it too small for most GEO payloads.

That was the reason for the smiley face as I was talking about OTL not TTL as a comparison. :)

Modifications to make Atlas reusable starting in the 1950s are beyond the scope of this TL (though, much as this TL was born of looking at SpaceX and saying "reusable first stages are so obvious! What if they'd done it in the 1970s?", people ITTL probably ask "What if they'd done the obvious from the get-go rather than messing around with Saturn?").

60s actually, the concept was from mid-to-late 1965 when it was presented. Still not TTL though I'd wonder if a reusable Atlas first stage was ever fooled with how much MORE obvious would it be at that point?

Indeed, the best POD is probably during WWII to get a reusable Atlas. But I digress.

Digressing in response post? That NEVER happens around here ;) Have to agree though as a 'key' seems to be getting the US with a higher interest in rockets and missiles towards the end of the war. But now "I" digress :)

Randy
 
TTL Geostationary satellites are actually already bigger than those in The Selene Project or IOTL 1986--approximately the size of the biggest GTO birds today, at some 6.5 tonnes. The ADVENT satellites, which the Hermes satellites in TSP are apparently based on, were some 550 kg--payloads which, ITTL, are dispensed from a ring at the top of the S-IVC or from the Shuttle payload bay for $5 million to fill up extra margin.

Will GEO satellites get heavier? The satellite communications boom of the 1990s will increase demand, but that's not the only factor...

I'm fairly dubious that satellites would grow that much. IMO they'll start shrinking for a bit in the 90s and 2000s as miniaturization out-paces capability upgrades.

fasquardon
 
I'm fairly dubious that satellites would grow that much. IMO they'll start shrinking for a bit in the 90s and 2000s as miniaturization out-paces capability upgrades.

that give several option
Modified the STS to bring more Satellite into GTO with one launch = cheaper
Put more RSC fuel tanks into communication satellite to increase it life span in GEO
or put more electronic into them for transmitting on more channels
 
Hopefully one of the authors will eventually pull out the spreadsheets detailing the actual costs of the program, year by year, the ranges of prices the spun-off launch company could therefore ask customers to pay (from an at-cost or even lower minimum the company could only bill customers at if subsidized, to a peak market price based on medium to moderately high costs of launch by other contemporary established methods) and thus the revenue model of that corporation--and we might then see how lower prices per ton to a given orbit might possibly induce faster mass growth despite miniaturization tending to shrink the mass of components of a given performance capability.

After all, as e of pi chided me some years ago when the later Apollo Blocks were being developed in Eyes Turned Skyward, just because a given amount of processing power available in X number of kilograms drawing Y watts of power in 1970 could be had in 1980 massing X/10 kg and drawing Y/5 the power, it did not follow that the newest Apollo CM capsules would have their avionics completely replaced with 1980 state of the art stuff that year. They could most certainly save a lot of weight by doing that, not only for the components themselves but also for power supply and cooling equipment too. But in avionics in general and in space flight avionics in particular, one first of all wants reliability. 1960s legacy equipment, I was told, would have first of all stood the test of time. Not broken, don't fix! Also it is apparent from the basic physics of things that the more robust and crude one's equipment is, the less damage space radiation is likely to do to it. The finer the electronics got, the more vulnerable to cosmic rays and so forth. Surely we could have circuitry special ordered that is designed to be robust against such hazards. Surely the military wants it, and not just for their spacecraft either--but any special designs to circumvent hazards that more primitive stuff bypasses by being so massive will have to be tested out, for reliability, over time, during which their cutting edge features will become outdated and the challenge to bring the newest stuff to market will tempt, while the previous wave loses its luster and sits forgotten.

Obviously OTL more advanced satellites did adopt ever newer tech anyway, cosmic rays and solar flares be damned. They aren't manned vehicles after all. And frankly I felt I was being slapped down in a rather contrarian fashion and that a rational NASA and Rockwell corporation would in fact adopt procedures to pipeline ever more capable microelectronics into the control systems of Apollo, because the tremendous advantages of superior computing power with less power consumption and cooling overhead were too clear to be shoved aside that contemptuously. (I'd do it in a layered fashion--as vital tertiary backup is some basic stuff going back to the sixties, then operating it but capable of being shunted out with a single manual switch is a suite of somewhat dated but very heavily tested DoD/NASA graded stuff that has passed a battery of tests, and then on top of that the nifty new stuff that the bright inventors assert will handle the tough space environment fine but is being tested now and not relied on much. Thus a 1980 Apollo Block III would have pretty much the same old core as the moon mission CMs did, but there would be some new stuff on probation, and by 1985 a lot of that probationary hardware will have gotten the thumbs up to displace some old 60s design stuff, and the total capability of the command boards would be far beyond that of the Lunar mission hardware. And so on. By 2010, the really old stuff will have been gone for decades, but of course newbie astronauts who get a look under the hood will observe the things are running on the equivalent of Pentium II and III (the highest end of that of course, but in robustified sheet metal boards with all kinds of redundancies. By 2020 it would be going over to i-core components, etc. And on board would be some instances of the newest tech, suitably beefed up for space survival, or so their manufacturers hope, but never in a mission critical application.

So miniaturization ought to happen, but perhaps not at all on the scale you may recall or imagine. Conservatism would be enforced by the hard challenges of deep space.

Whereas what we have with Lifter is a sudden drop in the market price for launch services. It probably won't drop as fast as it might have in theory, due to sticky bureaucratic fingers in the details, and reluctance of the market to absorb how much cheaper a launch might be possibly made by now. But on the time of scale of the evolution of microelectronics, it will be pretty fast. Once Lifter is proven out, the launch corporation will I think basically split the difference between the theoretical low cost (operating at mediocre profit, not actual loss) and the going rate of all competitors. The price will have come down a stunning degree, and yet has room to come down again in the future. First there will simply be more launches. But it won't be too long, a couple years at most, before some space launch customers start thinking about what they would do with size, if they could have only got it before. With launches of a given mass falling to half price at first, and then dropping down apparently steadily from there, some customers will be bidding on getting something twice as large as anyone ever launched in that category before, just because they've got the budget to do it.

So what I would expect to see is, first a surge in numbers of launches, then of size of individual packages, and only after five years or so would the size peak, while sophistication keeps increasing. But that has to proceed cautiously lest the ever finer electronics get fried into uselessness; the state of the art in deep space tech will always be half a decade or so behind the Terran curve.

The size of individual packages will peak provided there aren't factors driving the price of launch ever lower. The launch corporation is expecting a certain floor, set by per-launch costs that will remain fixed in real terms, whatever inflation may do. But if the market responds by flooding their capacity, they will have little choice but to invest in expanding and cheapening launches further--it is do that, or see some impatient rival in Russia or France come from behind to do it for you. If this kind of dynamic is going on, the price continues to trend downward per kilogram, and the temptation to make use of larger platforms that cost no more to launch than individual components just a few years before will offset the tendency to do more with less mass and power. The faster launch costs fall, the higher the peak of big structures that outmass those of the years before.

It is then a question of pacing, and a question of whether there are theoretical limits to how low the launch prices can sustainably go, just how large individual items will get.
 

At last, the flight computers [...] determined that the Lifter’s boost phase had reached its end. The four remaining F-1Bs shut down, and for a moment, the Lifter, Orbiter, and S-IVC coasted over the Bahamas unpowered. Then the pyro bolts on the S-IVC’s rear adapter fired, separating the upper stage from the blunt, graphite-covered nose of the Lifter and exposing the J-2S-2 engine to the near-vacuum of Earth’s mesosphere.

Commander Young and Pilot Crippen could watch the S-IVC drift away before the engine lit, but only for a moment. Peroxide thrusters on the nose and tail of the Lifter put it into its pitch-over maneuver[.] The nose pitched upward, slowly, and the S-IVC disappeared from view. [...]

As the S-IVC sped away from the Lifter, Young noted not for the first time that the acceleration felt familiar. [...] The gentle acceleration, [...] close to lunar gravity experienced by NASA’s last flying moonwalker [...] had been brief, though. The S-IVC was already further away from the Lifter, and no longer pointing dead-center toward the Lifter’s flat underbelly. The force of the rocket exhaust on the Lifter dropped away as the booster slowly, gracefully continued its pitch. The blue-white arc of Earth was beginning to crawl back into view in the Lifter’s windshield, as the immense craft’s engines oriented themselves forward, along the line of flight.

Is there a possibility of getting a flight profile illustration of Space Lifter? I'm trying to wrap my mind around what a nominal flight looks like with each new but of description, but a picture is worth a thousand words

I am thoroughly enjoying all the work @Polish Eagle and @e of pi have put into this wonderful reimagining of the Space Transport System. Truly, the dream is alive!
 
Is there a possibility of getting a flight profile illustration of Space Lifter? I'm trying to wrap my mind around what a nominal flight looks like with each new but of description, but a picture is worth a thousand words

I am thoroughly enjoying all the work @Polish Eagle and @e of pi have put into this wonderful reimagining of the Space Transport System. Truly, the dream is alive!

Shown at "Max-Q" here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...portation-system.405832/page-12#post-14367028

Randy
 
I think he meant something like this illustration for the Falcon 9: link
I'd like this too. We have been given information already that lets us reconstruct much of it. And note that without exact numbers attached, the Falcon 9 "profile" works just as well, really. "Departs atmosphere," does the first stage? Huh, that's strange considering there is plenty of atmosphere well above the Von Karmann Line to deorbit say Skylab. Whereas of course the VKL is a significant altitude for a spacecraft going at full orbital speed, while the first stage of either a Falcon launch or a Lifter launch is going a lot slower, so I'd think the VKL altitude (arbitrarily put at 100 km) is overkill for a coasting first stage; the altitude where air drag is "significant" whatever exactly that means is going to be lower. Maybe not a lot lower; the scale height of the bottom hundred km of altitude is somewhere in the 8.5-10 km ballpark, and going down one scale height raises the density by 2.7 (e, to be exact) so with the lower stage coasting at say 1/4 orbital velocity, it just needs a few scale heights to make the density 64 times that at the VKL.

The point is, saying a stage "leaves the atmosphere" is both uninformative and technically false; it never really does so, and there is no sharp interface analogous to the surface of a body of water where parameters change suddenly. We can approximate some things by pretending such a surface does exist, pretending that densities and pressures persist up to a full scale height from the actual level at which they hold for instance, as a way of approximating the cumulative effect of the thinning atmosphere above. Whether such an approximation is meaningful or not depends on the relationship between speed and altitude.

Such relationships would be what I'd want to see on a trajectory profile, not just conceptual illustrations. When a concept is new and unclear, it helps to have these conceptual sketches; once it becomes familiar though they are just doodles unless there are hard numbers attached.

Anyway the authors have given us some hard numbers, which as far as they go are superior to the Falcon illustration. They have not filled in every relevant parameter to be sure! But knowing for instance that the Lifter, in the nominal launch being descriptively drawn out in the chapter preludes here, reaches 109 km altitude apogee tells us a number of significant things. Knowing that by the time it has descended to 65 km it better not be going faster than 1500 m/sec tells us more things, as does knowing that it has a delta-V budget (for the propellant ballasting maneuver anyway) of just a bit over 1200 m/sec.

One parameter that is a bit fuzzy to me still is just what altitude, and downrange distance, the stack has reached at Lifter ascent boost shutdown (which note is not technically a "burnout" since it still retains the propellant for propellant ballasting). The lower that altitude is, the longer the Lifter is coasting upward through air at speeds well above 1500 m/sec. To be sure that air is thinning rather that becoming denser. Also, the lower the separation happens, the more aerodynamics would complicate the separation operation.

For various reasons I guessed the separation would happen somewhere around 85 km; frankly now I forget why I thought this. That's already so high that apogee is not far away. We've been given a few other parameters too, such as the theoretical delta-V of the Lifter, which we can work out anyway for ourselves given the engine ISP and total mass roster. From all this I figured that at apogee for the first stage (which we have been told is when the propellant ballasting thrust happens) it would be coasting at just over 2400 m/sec, of course parallel to Earth's surface by definition of apogee, and thus its speed would be halved to 1200 m/sec which means as it falls to 65 km it picks up 300 m/sec; at that altitude, it presumably has enough aerodynamic lift and control authority that the crew can pilot it so as to gain no more velocity, to lose speed gradually, and start banking and turning to arrest its recession from the launch point and begin heading back.

This profile in turn tells us more about what the pattern of the second stage boost looks like. We already know enough to figure its ascent and transverse speeds if someone tells us where separation happens, at what altitude, and we've been told the mass of the upper stack and its engine thrust too. We know it will reach at least 109 km altitude free falling upward even with no upward thrust whatsoever. Since that is clearly not adequate, we can try to estimate how much upward thrust is needed to eventually reach the desired orbital altitude, and with the thrust left over for transverse acceleration, how long it should take to reach a stable orbit.
 
Chapter 10: Apogee
"New Heights in Reuse: Space Shuttle and the Competition" (Jul '87 cover, Aviation Week & Space Technology)​


Chapter 10: Apogee


Though the RS-IC separated from the S-IVC at only 67 kilometers, its five mighty engines imparted enough momentum to it for it to coast to 110 kilometers, just over the Karman line. As the S-IVC and the Orbiter pulled away, and the mild deceleration induced by the J-2S exhaust fell into the noise, the Lifter continued its slow pitch-over maneuver, its nose tilting up toward the black sky. With a loud BANG, the explosive bolts holding the conical interstage to the nose fired, casting the corrugated aluminum shell into the void, drifting slowly, less than a meter per second, away from the Lifter. Even here, aerodynamic forces tugged at both, gently, unpredictably, but the Lifter’s greater momentum reduced their impact on it--the Interstage started to trail behind and drop back.

With the sun hidden by the Lifter’s bulbous nose, the crew got to gaze upon a clear, black daytime sky, flooded with stars. On earth, the sun’s glare and the scattering of light through the atmosphere hides half of the constellations from view for a large chunk of the year, but in space, the crew got to take in a view of the winter constellations in July. With nothing but the red-tinted analog indicators on the Lifter’s control board to pollute the light, Young’s and Crippen’s eyes adjusted just fast enough to see Orion pluck an arrow from his quiver to attack Taurus. Then, the bright blue-white of Earth intruded through their windshield again, first the Gulf of Mexico, then the green-brown curve of Florida and the much lighter blue-green of the Bahamas. The storms that had delayed the launch were followed by a high-pressure system that left clear skies across most of the peninsula--though the tail end of the storm system was just visible, north and east of Grand Bahama. The Lifter’s ascent continued, and even as they coasted further east, their field of view widened, parts of Georgia and Cuba and Alabama entering their view. Crippen and Young each kept one eye out and another on their controls--the auxiliary power units were performing nominally, keeping the control surfaces ready for entry, and the peroxide attitude-control thrusters were all functional. With earth over their heads, the stars under their feet, and faint red light at their fingertips, the crew of Constitution coasted past the official edge of space.

The crew only had so long to focus on the view above them before the fast pace of mission events pulled their attention back into the cockpit. As Young confirmed the vehicle’s alignment in retro attitude, Crippen read off a few screens in front of him, confirming the activation of the control systems for the Student Suborbital Experiment Bay. In the nose, a controller began to feed power to the several small, short-duration experiment packages mounted there. Crippen read off the confirmation that the systems were online, confirmed it with the ground, and moved on to the next item on the checklist. With no further interaction, the controller would run through the rest of the mission, putting the small packages through their paces. They ranged in complexity from high-schoolers’ experiments in microgravity boiling mechanics to university-level experiments in crystal development, brought together by a shared need for a cheap, recoverable launch. Cameras recorded the unique fluid phenomena in this strange regime where viscosity dominated and buoyancy was absent, while geiger counters measured the rate at which cosmic rays penetrated the Lifter’s hull as it climbed. Someday soon, many of these experiments would shift to Orbiter flights or to Spacelab, but, for now, experienced researchers and budding scientists alike took advantage of a system with margin to spare. Endeavour was still climbing to the stars, but STS-8 would produce its first scientific data before the S-IVCs engine even burnt out as Constitution coasted toward the peak of her arc.
[/I]

The first launch of Russia’s STS-equivalent sparked fiery new discussions about the next stage of American space exploration. While the STS delivered on many of its promises of flight schedule and cost, the Lifter and Shuttle had been conceptualized as enablers for a broader framework of space exploration and exploitation. While the KH-12 and new commercial satellites like Geostar indicated the ways that Lifter was succeeding, Mir pointed out the weaknesses of NASA’s space exploration program. Though the new Grumman Multi-Purpose Extension Module expanded the size and duration of Shuttle missions to Spacelab and the capacity of the system for non-Spacelab missions, there was still lack of direction for the next stages of NASA’s human exploration program. It fell to politicians and planners to decide how to respond, and if Groza and Uragan’s debut would be the first sparks igniting a new competition in spaceflight.

The American space program had been designed in the 1960s to demonstrate the superiority of the American political and economic system to that of the Soviet Union. It had succeeded in this goal with the landing of Apollo 11 on the Moon in 1969, only for the Soviet Union to (apparently) retake the initiative in the 1970s with the Salyut program, which demonstrated Soviet skill in actual in-space operations. The 1980s saw the pendulum swing back in the other direction, as repeated American successes on all fronts of space activity, from launch to in-space operations to unmanned planetary exploration, seemingly left the Soviet Union in the dust. The debut of Raskat and Berkut in 1986, though only matching earlier American achievements, hinted that the Soviet Union was preparing a big push to retake its lead. Though American space advocates tended toward a libertarian-capitalist ideology, there had always been an undercurrent of authoritarianism and admiration for authoritarian methods in both the advocate and entrepreneur communities and among the rank-and-file engineers and managers of the industry. As Charles Lindbergh had once praised the German Luftwaffe, so his heirs looked at the apparent priority that space conquest got in the Soviet Union with envious eyes. 1986, consequently, saw a flurry of predictions that the Soviet Union was preparing to deploy everything from a permanent space station to solar power satellites to “a colony on the Moon,” in the words of National Geographic. While in retrospect it boggles the mind that so much was expected in space of a power with so little time left on Earth, it must be remembered that very few intellectuals of the 1970s and 1980s seriously entertained the idea that the Cold War’s end was imminent.

In any case, by 1986, the Space Lifter had been spun off to the Space Transportation Corporation and both the Shuttle and Spacelab were in regular operation. The production lines for both Shuttle and Lifter were closed, with the Orbiter fleet capped at four, plus a set of “structural spares” and the Pathfinder test airframe, and the Lifter fleet capped at 4, a number deemed suitable for up to 30 flights per year indefinitely. In this comparatively sleepy environment, NASA’s engineers and managers had already begun debating their Next Big Thing. Berkut’s flight only added some more fuel to a fire already kindled at NASA. In 1984, Congress had authorized a National Commission on Space, including such luminaries as Thomas Paine, Chuck Yeager, and Neil Armstrong, whose purpose was to outline the programs NASA needed to take the next great steps in spaceflight. In early 1986, the NCS published its conclusions: in order to sustainably expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit, the key technologies NASA required were electric launch and propulsion technologies, long-duration closed ecosystems, aerobraking, artificial gravity, nuclear power plants for electricity generation, and hypersonic air-breathing propulsion. As it happened, many of these technologies were already under research and development by both NASA and the USAF, the latter of which had picked up with Project Timberwind where NASA had left off with the cancellation of NERVA, and which was researching SCramjet propulsion for the National Aero-Space Plane project. NASA, for its part, was hard at work investigating closed-loop life support technologies and artificial gravity. However, a growing section of NASA’s younger, post-Apollo engineers and managers found a source of disappointment in the NCS’s recommendations: if followed to their conclusion, the only fundamentally new vehicle they’d yield was a Space Transfer Vehicle, the reusable space tug for which Thomas Paine’s original vision in 1970 had called. While no one doubted the utility of such a vehicle, the 1980s had seen the resurgence of a lobby that was interested in the Moon and Mars as human destinations, and the refusal of the NCS to recommend either destination, and the subsequent lackadaisical attitude Congress had taken to funding any of the programs it had recommended, left a feeling that the other worlds would ever remain just out of reach. As one attendee at a Case for Mars Conference in Boulder remarked in 1987, “we didn’t get to the Moon when someone said ‘let’s put my lunar module on your heavy lifter.’ We got to the Moon by committing to it and designing an architecture optimized for it. If we keep designing architectures only for orbital operations, that’s all we’ll ever have.” Unfortunately, the NCS was hesitant to recommend either the Moon or Mars as immediate, near-term destinations, owing to the projected cost of an immediate, mostly-expendable effort.

While efforts focused beyond Earth orbit remained distinctly back-burner, efforts directed towards a large, permanent follow-up to Spacelab had been ongoing since President Reagan’s 1984 direction of NASA efforts towards such a project. However, after three years, little real progress had been made. Far from the unified vision which had characterized Project Apollo or the development of the Space Lifter, the American large space station effort remained stranded for more than two years in the blizzard of studies and competing visions which had characterized the early years of the development of the Space Shuttle. A variety of factions had sprung up to critique the station’s purpose and scope. More than the usual squabbles between NASA’s centers over the division of project management, these reflected a deeper struggle over the role and goals of the station project, and the basic tools which would see it carried out. The result was slow progress along a multitude of different tracks.

Johnson Space Center in Houston, coordinator of all manned mission operations, saw themselves as the natural home to any space station development efforts. After all, any manned station with a permanent crew would be controlled from Houston, like Skylab, Shuttle, and Spacelab before it. Moreover, Johnson had long been a focal point for the development of closed loop life support, a key challenge for a permanent space station, and one that they considered unquestionably necessary for missions to Mars. They conceived the NASA response to Reagan’s challenge as a bustling space operations center, with a crew of a dozen or more astronauts working to support laboratories, telescopes, satellite servicing, and the construction, checkout, and maintenance on a fleet of tugs usable for transferring payloads to geostationary orbit, the moon, and beyond. Components would be a mix of Lifter-sized 40-50 metric tons modules and smaller 10-ton modules hauled up by Space Shuttle and regularly rotated home, as with the LDEF or the Grumman MPEM, then assembled under the watchful eye of Shuttle-launched astronauts and augmented with further assembly conducted via EVA.

Marshall was equally enthusiastic about seeing another massive development project come home to its natural roost at the center which had built Skylab, and supervised the design and assembly of the Space Lifter and Spacelab’s Service Module. Their proposals were largely of similar epic scope and varying role as Johnson’s, but focused more on the larger module sizes, with assembly to be conducted by the modules themselves under autonomous control to minimize risk to astronauts and the number of manned missions required to assemble the station. They even proposed that the station could be launched one large module at a time, first a man-tended power and service module, then growing over time with more habitats, laboratories, and hangars as the needs of the program drove it. The initial module would be similar in concept and function to the Spacelab Pressurized/Service Module split, and one proposal even called for using Spacelab itself as the initial home for checking out the modules as the station was constructed, before casting the older station loose once again.

A dissenting voice on the consensus of a few large 50-ton Lifter-launched modules augmented by specialized 10-ton Shuttle lofted modules came from a faction with membership from both Johnson and Marshall, made up largely of engineers and managers working on the Wet Workshop Evaluation Mission, then aimed for space in 1987. They contended that their project could turn the vast number of expended S-IVC stages into a massive resource for space station construction and space development. Instead of a relatively small crew of a dozen or so, a few “dry” 40-50 ton modules would serve as the foundation for converting numerous larger S-IVC stages, purging them, fitting them with docking facilities, and assembling them into any number of configurations for a large station—or even for more than one in various orbits. Once this resource was tapped, the stream of S-IVC stages lofted would turn into the raw material for laboratories, spin stations, greenhouses, personal quarters, medical facilities, hangars, processing facilities to turn the expended tanks into telescopes or in-space tugs, or even into furnaces to smelt their fellows into raw materials for manifold purposes.

All the manned spaceflight factions sought the support of the space science community. This community, though, was cooler in general on the concepts put forward for such grandiose visions, while divided into its own factions. Biologists specializing in human adaptations to microgravity were excited by the longer crew mission durations a permanent station would enable. After all, the longest missions to Spacelab possible even with the MPEM were barely more than two months, short even compared to final Skylab mission a decade earlier, much less the missions routinely flown by Soviet cosmonauts. Researchers working on experiments which required heavy intervention by astronauts and unsuited for remote monitoring and operation on Spacelab were also excited by the potential of such a station for plant growth, animal studies, and materials processing. For the moment, these researchers were forced to choose between the readily available astronaut time which came from flying in the MPEM aboard Space Shuttle free flights and the longer durations of months or years possible in the isolation of Spacelab. However, while these factions eagerly embraced the concept of a permanent manned station, other factions liked the isolation of Spacelab and the Long Duration Exposed Facility from the intervention of astronauts. For those specializing in crystal growth, physical sciences, ground imaging, and astronomy, Spacelab and the LDEF’s man-tended operation was ideal. Crews in space or on the ground could coordinate the preparation of experiments, then leave them to run on their own, taking away their variable temperatures, atmospheric requirements, and unpredictable vibrations within the station with them. While a larger platform would be valuable, it might not be if it came with the requirement to support a constant crew presence. On the whole, the space science community worried about the way that the many studies from Marshall, Johnson, and the smaller centers focused on the construction and operations of stations, with more efforts spent on the design of windows for hangars for moon tugs than on the options and applications of the laboratories scattered throughout the stations. It was, one scientist remarked, as though the station designers viewed science as some kind of substance which laboratories and instruments produced given an astronaut’s presence, good only to be brought back to the Earth for processing into budgetary funds and new space technologies. Given this perceived attitude, the scientific community was more concerned with ensuring that any new station would not draw effort away from the utilization and utility of existing platforms. This left the scientific community distinctly conservative in the discussions, more concerned with preserving the status quo of Spacelab, Shuttle free flights, and missions like the LDEF than with any faction’s concepts for the large station. As 1986 turned into 1987, the space station program continued to make slow progress in defining those items all the proposals would require, like large docking ports, large solar panel deployment schemes, and environmental control systems, but little real progress in defining a single overall architecture for the station. While NASA continued to debate the direction of American spaceflight focus for the immediate future, Russia continued to up the ante.

Even as Raskat, Groza, and Uragan laid the foundations for a new monument to the scientific and technological prowess of the Workers’ Paradise, the old Soviet manned program began to draw to a close. In order to control costs, the venerable R-7 and the newer Proton family of rockets was scheduled to phase out as Groza took over more and more of the Soviet space launch requirements. Unlike the American Space Lifter, Groza could be scaled down to loft only 12 tonnes at a time by leaving off the upper stage and reducing the number of boosters. This meant that all but the smallest Soviet rockets (the Kosmos family, whose LEO payload was only 1.5 tonnes) could be more effectively replaced with variants of the Raskat-Groza system--and even that small remaining market was challenged when the Yuzhnoye design bureau proposed to simply fit an upper stage to Raskat in a side-mounted payload fairing. Proton, whose toxic and corrosive propellants had been raising the ire of Kazakh Communist Party officials for decades, was the first to go. Twin-Raskat Groza launches could easily and cost-effectively replace Proton for 20-ton class payloads. The Soyuz family of rockets was to be retained for a few years longer, to maintain Soviet crewed launch capability until the Uragan spacecraft were ready to pick up the torch, but no further improvements of the Soyuz design were planned. The Soyuz-TM, specially optimized for space station operations, had been cancelled earlier in the decade, though its Kurs docking radar would survive to be mounted to the last few Soyuz-T spacecraft. The last Soyuz flights of the 1980s, and of the programme as a whole, would seal their own obsolescence by providing final validation for hardware to be integrated to the Uragans.

Soyuz T-15 was one such mission. This 50-day mission to the space station saw Leonid Kizim and Vladimir Solovyov collect experiments laid out by the previous crew, test electron beam welding techniques in low earth orbit, test a new folding girder design, and, finally, reboost Salyut to a higher orbit to forestall reentry. Though no further use of the space station was planned, Soviet planners hedged their bets against the chance of a budgetary crisis in Moscow, and left the space station in an orbit not expected to decay until the mid-1990s.

The reboost of Salyut was not the end of the Soyuz T-15 mission, however. While they occupied Salyut, the Raskat-Groza system had taken to the launch pad again, bearing a new payload--the 40-tonne core module for the new, modular space station Mir. Injected into the same 51.6-degree orbit occupied by Salyut 7, Mir’s core module was of a brand new design, optimized for the longer and wider payload fairing of the Groza rocket. Though Mir’s life-support, power, and thermal control systems drew heavily on those tested in the Salyut program, the station’s pressure vessel was of a new design, with two axial docking ports and two more port and starboard ports. The Mir core module was designed to provide power, communications, thermal control, and crew accommodations for up to 6 cosmonauts on long-term missions, and to support two laboratory modules at a time. The laboratory modules, still under construction in 1986, were similar to the American MPEM, but designed to stay on orbit between missions. They would be carried in an Uragan payload bay, and attached to the port or starboard docking ports as needed. This would allow Mir’s scientific capability to be adjusted according to the needs and interests of researchers on Earth, and allow easy upgrades to the laboratories in the very factories in which they were first built.

Soyuz T-15 rendezvoused with Mir on October 19, 1986, for a brief, two-week stay during which Kizim and Solovyov checked out the station’s life-support, communications, and thermal control systems. Uncooperative station docking systems being a frequent nuisance in the Salyut program, they also repeatedly docked and undocked with the station’s axial docking ports, in order to verify that the rendezvous equipment on the station was functional. The successes proved that the Kurs system did in fact allow Soyuz to dock without the station actively maneuvering to match.

As the completion of the Uragan life-support systems dragged on, the decision was made to use up the remaining stock of Soyuz-T craft to utilize Mir in the interim. Though the Mir core module was primarily a service and habitation module, it did have some limited scientific capacity, mostly in the field of space medicine and optical earth observation. Soyuz T-16 rendezvoused with Mir on March 5, 1987, carrying Aleskander Laveykin and Yuri Romanenko, who spent 5 months aboard the station studying anti-microgravity countermeasures (including a new design of elastic resistance suit, changed exercise regimes using the new equipment launched on the Mir core module, and pharmaceutical treatments) and performing extravehicular activities to attach sensors to the exterior of the hull. They also performed basic astronomical observations (with small, simple instruments carried in their Soyuz) to test the utility of Mir’s gyroscopic stabilization system, which reduced the reaction-control propellant requirements of the immense space station, at the cost of a high electric power requirement. Among the more revolutionary innovations in life-support on Mir was a refrigeration-based CO2 scrubbing system, which cooled air until carbon dioxide deposited on a surface for collection, eliminating the need for lithium hydroxide canisters. After some initial hiccups in the third week of the mission, Laveykin and Romanenko repaired the mechanism, which would perform remarkably reliably for the remainder of Mir’s on-orbit life.

Soyuz T-17 followed T-16 in 1988, bringing Valeri Polyakov and Vladimir Titov to a rendezvous with Mir on January 7, for a six-month stay. They continued the medical sciences experiments of the T-16 crew, and performed new ones--among their cargo was a specially-designed surgical dummy used to test first-aid techniques for microgravity. Most notable, however, was the rendezvous of the second Uragan orbiter, Kryechyet, “Falcon.” Fitted with a docking radar and life-support system, this Uragan launched unmanned on a Raskat-Groza heavy stack, carrying the first of the laboratory modules built for Mir--the KP Spektr module, fitted with earth-observation sensors and observation equipment. The first of Mir’s dedicated laboratory modules, Spektr brought a massive increase in the scientific capability of the station, giving Polyakov and Titov the ability to perform detailed studies of ground and atmospheric targets, measuring atmospheric gas concentrations and collecting infrared and ultraviolet photographs of the Earth’s surface. Polyakov and Titov also entered Kryechyet’s flight deck, measuring the atmospheric concentration there and determining that the life-support system was, in fact, functional, and clearing the way for manned launches of the Uragan orbiters in the years to come.

While the Soviet Union slowly but steadily worked to match and in some cases exceed the progress of the American Space Transportation System and Spacelab efforts, the European Space Agency found its own launch vehicle family, Ariane, something of a disappointment. Though far more reliable than the Europa rockets it replaced, Ariane was far more expensive than the Space Lifter, particularly after the Space Transportation Corporation enacted further cost-saving measures in 1985. While Ariane certainly gave the European Space Agency the ability to launch its own scientific and civil satellites and gave France her own military launch capability, the system found very little interest outside Europe (with the exception of states like Brazil, whose attempts to develop her own satellite launch capability hindered cooperation with the US), and even the United Kingdom had chosen instead to purchase Space Lifter flights for its military payloads.

Though many ESA bureaucrats were content to simply have an independent launch capability, and countries like Germany and Italy preferred to move on to other development programs (such as a permanent “lifeboat” escape vehicle for Spacelab, which would help enable a transition from man-tended to permanently-occupied operations and lay groundwork for future European manned spacecraft), Arianespace and CNES engineers began to study alternative rocket configurations in 1983 that would allow them to reduce costs and compete with STC’s Space Lifter. Recognizing the benefits of reusability demonstrated in the United States, but also recognizing the great strides that the ESA had made in hydrogen-burning rocket engine development and automated control systems, they explored several variants on a purely-European reusable launcher. A range of two and three stage solutions were initially examined, starting in 1982. There were as many approaches within these broad parameters as there were European aerospace firms and institutions. While most converged on hydrogen-oxygen for the core stage, there was disagreement about how to recover the core or whether to bother at all. Proposals for both the core and boosters ranged from fixed wings to folding wings to ballistic reentry to recovery of only the engines, with propulsion ranging from landing rockets to gliding to jets to turboprops, and every conceivable combination. Options for the boosters included solid-propellant (favored by some French engineers, owing to their experience with ballistic missiles), hydrogen, kerosene, hypergollics (favored by the Ariane teams), and pressure-fed natural gas (favored by German engineers based in Stuttgart). By 1984, the range of options began to narrow. The realities of launch from French Guyana forced an emphasis on either water landings (as polar orbit launches required flight directly north, over the open Atlantic), which favored ballistic or airbag landings, or very long-range powered flight to a suitable landing site (sites in the Caribbean and Canada were both considered for the core stage, depending on its exact trajectory). Pressure-fed and solid boosters both lent themselves well to water landings, but conversely their high-thrust, low-specific-impulse characteristics were best suited for the booster stages--which actually could stage close enough to the launch site to fly back.

The logic of multi-stage rocket design began to limit the options. The hydrogen-burning core stage would be the most expensive part of the vehicle and supply most of the delta-v, so it was the most crucial to reuse. It was also undesirable to drop high-performance cryogenic engines into the ocean, so a consensus on a reusable core emerged. While the first design studies had tackled anything from 2 tonnes to 200 tonnes to Low Earth Orbit, a study of the European and global space industry’s actual needs refined the payload target down to 16 tonnes. This would give the new launcher the ability to launch larger geostationary payloads individually, avoiding the logistical headaches of arranging shared launches, while also enabling the launch of an indigenous European manned space capsule, based on the multitude of Spacelab lifeboat projects then under study. The greatest issue remaining to confront was exactly what technology was best suited to developing a reusable launch vehicle that could put 16 tonnes in Low Earth Orbit, a question whose answer eluded program managers for several years.

Alone among the major spacefaring powers, Japan did not found her launch vehicle industry upon a ballistic missile or atomic deterrent program. By law and custom, Japan had renounced such weapons after the carnage of the Second World War. Nevertheless, Japan was quick to join the ranks of spacefaring nations, becoming the fourth nation (after the Soviet Union, United States, and France) to launch its own satellite with the launch of the Osumi satellite on February 11, 1970. Japan’s first two satellite launchers, the Lambda and Mu families, were small and simple solid-fueled rockets, modest by the standards of the gigantic boosters of the Soviet-American Space Race, but they provided a firm foundation for the development of a healthy aerospace sector.

Unlike the French, Japan’s leaders had no illusions about retaking a “rightful place in the sun,” and so cooperation between the Japanese and American governments on space access was comparatively smooth and easy. Japan’s next satellite launch vehicle, the N-I, was based on a license-built Thor IRBM, with a new, Japanese-made upper stage, powered by a liquid-fueled LE-3 engine. The experience gained in the LE-3 development program paved the way for a whole suite of new Japanese engine development programs in the 1970s and 1980s, intended to form the foundation for a fully-reusable Japanese launch vehicle--perhaps even a single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane. Japanese researchers developed a wholly-indigenous hydrogen-burning rocket engine, the LE-5, and conducted research on a host of exotic engine designs, ranging from staged-combustion LH2/LOX engines to air-breathing rocket engines to scramjets.

It was this dynamic and evolving Japanese aerospace sector that attracted interest from American corporations in the 1980s. McDonnell-Douglas, building on its longstanding partnership with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, took a keen interest in the turboramjet and scramjet research being conducted in Japan, and proposed to use air-breathing engines developed by Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (whose work built on Aerojet’s research in the 1950s) in their National Aero-Space Plane proposal. Though McDonnell-Douglas did not win the prime contract for NASP, their suggestion to use a Japanese engine design stoked a sudden interest in Japanese propulsion technologies among American aerospace firms. While Japanese businessmen and government officials were reluctant to give much technical access to representatives from Aerojet or Pratt & Whitney, representatives of the more general aerospace firms (McDonnell-Douglas, Martin-Marietta, Boeing, and Grumman) had a much easier time interacting with their Japanese counterparts. American engineers witnessed static-fire tests of a variety of new Japanese hardware, and attended briefings on progress made in more exotic propulsion projects.

The most significant incident during these meetings came in 1986, when Martin-Marietta Vice President of Technical Operations Norm Augustine met with Yohei Mimura to discuss possible Japanese use of Martin-Marietta’s Reusable Launch Vehicle design. To Augustine’s surprise, when he mentioned that Pratt & Whitney and Marshall Space Flight Center had both performed design studies on staged-combustion LH2/LOX engines, Mimura alluded to a staged-combustion-cycle engine already in development and undergoing breadboard component testing, the LE-7. Inquiring further, Augustine and other Martin-Marietta executives learned that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries had been hard at work on a staged-combustion-cycle engine of indigenous design since 1984, intended for the all-Japanese replacement of the N-II rocket. Though they were relative latecomers to cryogenic rocketry, Mitsubishi’s engineers had made great strides in integrating cutting-edge computational fluid simulations to their design process, promising a radical reduction in the cost and development time of the new engine, which they planned to have on the test stand by 1989. They also benefitted from great improvements in metallurgy made between 1970 and 1984, giving them access to better steel and titanium alloys than Pratt & Whitney or Rocketdyne engineers could assume in the waning days of the Apollo program. While they lacked the experience of Soviet engineers, Mitsubishi’s engine designers were the equals of any of their American counterparts.

Japan’s leading aerospace institutions, including NASDA, NAL (the National Aerospace Laboratory), and ISAS (the Institute of Space and Astronautical Sciences), had been intimately involved in evaluating the propulsion systems under development and study by Mitsubishi, Ishikawajima-Harima, and Japanese universities. Inspired by the success of the American Space Lifter and now by the Soviet demonstration of the Raskat-Groza system, Japanese engineers and executives had proposed a variety of reusable launch systems, ranging from a miniature Shuttle on top of the proposed H-II expendable rocket to a reusable suborbital sounding rocket to a fully-reusable, air-breathing SSTO program. Martin Marietta’s research during the CRLV program, published openly with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, had shown very convincingly that a reusable TSTO would have a lower development cost and comparable operating costs to an SSTO of similar performance--ultimately, the cost of integrating two reusable stages was modest compared to the cost of simply turning the stages around between landing and launch. Martin-Marietta further challenged the conventional wisdom by pointing out that the payload mass fraction of a ballistic, vertical-landing spacecraft could, in fact, exceed that of a winged or lifting-body vehicle, as the horizontal-landing vehicles needed additional structural support to support greater side-loads, whereas vertical-landing craft were already designed to handle axial loads. As a result, a small but growing fraction of Japan’s aerospace establishment was convinced that a fully-reusable, two-stage vehicle would be the most economically viable way forward for Japan’s launch industry. This segment only grew with every milestone passed in the checkout of Martin-Marietta’s Terminal Descent Demonstrator as it prepared for its first flights. Mitsubishi’s revelation of their LE-7 development program had been far from unintentional--rather, it was the first suggestion of an exchange of MHI’s new high-performance rocket engine for Martin-Marietta’s skill with vertical rocket landings.

However, there remained among NASDA’s leadership concerns about committing to an undemonstrated architecture like that proposed by Martin-Marietta, and a reluctance to commit to such a program alone. Augustine’s visit to Japan was an opportunity to measure the possibilities for a partnership with the American company, to evaluate their interest in Japan’s propulsion technologies and the possibility of a relationship similar to that which Mitsubishi in particular and Japanese aerospace in general enjoyed with McDonnell-Douglas. Ideally, NASDA and Mitsubishi wanted to leverage Japan’s strengths in rocket engine development as much as possible, in such a manner that, if the partnership fell through, they would still be able to pivot back to developing their own RLV or returning to the expendable H-II design still under consideration.

The partnership would not be identical, however--whereas the earlier relationship had amounted to Mitsubishi license-building a fully-developed American rocket stage, a joint Japanese-American TSTO would involve the development of new intellectual and physical capital that would not be the sole property of either firm, and there was the possibility of international arms-trafficking regulations keeping such a joint venture out of lucrative government and commercial satellite contracts. A partnership to develop the new vehicles would require the creation of a new, jointly-owned venture. There was precedent for such an organization--in the 1970s, General Electric and Snecma (of France) had created CFM International to manufacture the CFM56 turbofan engine, which used parts made in both the United States and France. CFM International’s engines were manufactured in both Ohio and France, depending on the final buyer for the engines, and both Snecma and GE profited from the exchange of technology and the new markets opened by operating on both sides of the Atlantic.

As Augustine and other Martin-Marietta executives met with their counterparts at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and with regulators at NASDA, the first outlines of a similar joint venture began to take shape. As 1986 gave way to 1987, an agreement emerged between Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Martin-Marietta to found a new joint venture--Trans-Pacific Launch Industries, which would jointly develop a TSTO reusable launch vehicle, powered by Japan’s LE-7 and LE-5A rocket engines, but with an airframe and control system developed by Martin-Marietta. The completed vehicles could be assembled in either the United States or Japan (indeed, most likely both, as the CFM56 engine was assembled in both the US and France), while Martin-Marietta retained control over the airframe production line and Mitsubishi focused on the engines. Mitsubishi would supply over 50% of the development capital, while Martin supplied its experience with the TDD.

Formally incorporated in 1987, TPLI would spend the next several years pushing the TDD’s landing software to greater lengths and evaluating designs for the reusable upper stage, while Mitsubishi worked on finishing the LE-7 development process and developing the improved LE-5A variant of its LE-5 rocket engine. In addition to the staged-combustion cycle, the LE-7 had to be capable of deep throttling and very reliable restart in flight, stretching its development cycle into the early 1990s.

American dominance in the field of reusable rockets was no longer unchallenged: the Soviet Groza system was the first real competition to the Space Transportation System, and Europe, Japan, and even commercial firms were taking the demonstrated benefits of reusability as a pathway for the future of space launch and operations. While this challenge spurred new discussions over the lack of major American space station development or the failure to make a broader plan for the use of Lifter for the development of space, the presence of another competitor in the race only drove home that if NASA was no longer unchallenged, it was unimpeachably dominant. The program had made its 50th launch in 1984, then the 75th mission had inaugurated 1986. Now, as the program closed in on its 100th launch, it was flying as many as 18 missions a year. The main barrier to higher launch rates wasn’t the system’s capabilities but a paucity of payloads, even as the size of commercial satellites grew to fill the Lifter’s Multiple Launch Adaptor. While the Soviets struggled to clear the hurdle of launching two manned Uragan flights in one year, payload schedulers at NASA, the DoD, and the Space Transportation Corporation made plans for pulling off a similar feat within as little as a week, and to demonstrate two critical roles for the Space Shuttle in the process.

For almost two years, engineers at NASA’s Marshall and Johnson space centers had been collaborating to turn the principles of wet workshop implementation, as developed originally for Skylab’s earliest ancestors, into practice for the Wet Workshop Evaluation Mission, often known by the shorthand “Wetlab”. Specialized modifications had been made to an S-IVC diverted from the main production flow, and a new docking module had been fabricated based on Spacelab and MPEM derived hardware, intended to fly inside the Shuttle for the mission. The S-IVC was fitted with metal mesh partitions and brackets to mount hardware to on orbit, and engineers had spent months designing and testing the ways to fit all the critical systems of a temporary space station into the confines of the Shuttle and the Docking Module. Referencing a new furniture company which was growing around the world, one NASA engineer described it as “trying to design Spacelab as built by IKEA.” However, finally, the hardware was ready and a crew was assigned for training and flight. With an eye to the Public Affairs Office, the mission was assigned the much-anticipated STS-100 mission designation.

At the same time NASA was seeking a public spectacle for their test of a new approach to space operations, the National Reconnaissance Office was eyeing its own new capability. Their KH-12 LUCID electro-optical satellites, with their massive 168-inch main mirrors, were a major improvement over previous KH-11 and KH-9 satellites. However, their capacity came at a price tag staggering compared to previous generations of optical satellites. One of the benefits of the electro-optical design was that film capacity no longer would limit the lifespan of these monsters, but other elements could: failing solar arrays, motors, and batteries, malfunctioning gyroscopes, aging avionics. Moreover, the rapid advance of digital technologies even since the introduction of the KH-11 in 1976 meant that the state of the art for detectors, storage, and controls for satellites had advanced staggeringly even since the KH-12 design was frozen for production in 1983. As the satellites orbited, their capabilities would slowly erode while the state of the art lept ahead.

However, unlike the smaller KH-8 or KH-9 satellites of old, the KH-12 was too expensive to simply dispose of and replace. As Space Shuttle advocates had promoted, there was another way. In 1982, the STS-24 mission to repair the Solar Maximum Mission had demonstrated the repair and enhancement of a flying mission with the assistance of astronauts, and the lesson had not been missed by the KH-12 design team, nor those of their civilian counterparts working on NASA’s Space Telescope project. As the Space Lifter enabled the size and capacity of these two optical systems, the Space Shuttle would allow both to be serviced on orbit. Detectors, avionics, gyroscopes, batteries, and more were examined during design with an eye towards future visits by astronauts on EVA. Quick-connects were developed to link systems intended to be removed and replaced by crews wearing EVA suit gloves and using vacuum-rated tools. Handrails and access panels dotted the outside of the satellites, unlike the bare metal skins of previous generations. Now the planning would pay off.

Two years after its first launch, the time was approaching for the first LUCID platform to be serviced. While west coast Space Shuttle launches typically received less attention than those from Kennedy Space Center, the DoD sought additional shielding from the public eye as a critical national security asset was brought in for a tune up. The first LUCID servicing mission was assigned mission slot STS-101. The planned launch date just days after STS-100 would allow the mission to hide in the public interest NASA’s PAO was focusing on Wetlab. Not for the first time, civilian missions from NASA would serve as cover for the activities of the NRO. Also not for the first time, the best laid plans would go awry.

As NASA’s Public Affairs office drummed up attention on the temporary second American space station mission and the hundredth flight of the Space Lifter, the near-simultaneous launch of a second Shuttle from a second coast west was just one more detail. As intended, the absence of mission details for Resolution was overshadowed by a rush of stories on the mission and crew of STS-100. While the eyes of those casually interested in spaceflight focused on Florida, Intrepid was readied in California. However, clouds were on the horizon, both proverbially and literally. A break of bad weather was the first interruption in the schedule, with both missions slipping a week to wait out storms and unsatisfactory winds in Florida. However, in the meantime, further inspections of the STS-100 showed a potential concern with an umbilical plate carrying liquid oxygen to the Space Lifter Independence. Destiny’s mission was delayed several more days as the ground crews tested, inspected, and finally removed the entire assembly. It would require servicing before flight. While awaiting a NASA decision on how long the delay might be, Vandenberg launch operations eyed a streak of anticipated bad weather in California. Waiting for Independence and STS-100 to be ready for Wetlab might mean the delay of STS-101 by more than a month past its originally scheduled date if the close alignment of flights was to be preserved.

Ultimately, leadership made the decision: Wetlab had absorbed enough attention that Resolution could carry out her servicing mission. While waiting for the originally planned alignment would offer minor benefits in mission secrecy, it would require unwarranted delays. Not for the first time, a Vandenberg launch and a Cape launch would switch their originally planned order. As with the several times the situation had happened before, the STS mission number would stay attached to the two missions even as they switched places. Having the launch sequence in order was of minor benefit given the effort involved in changing hundreds of pages of typewritten documentation, mission patches, briefing notes, and more. While the public continued to take in news on the STS-100 mission to test a new type of station, the actual hundredth launch, STS-101, launched from Vandenberg into thick afternoon clouds on July 23rd, 1987. Less than thirty seconds into the flight, Intrepid carried Resolution through the lowest cloud layer, shrouding the mission from the view of the few spectators who had braved intermittent rain showers. Little more was seen before Intrepid’s return twenty minutes later to a landing on Vandenberg’s runway.

As always, schedule slips were perverse. Almost as soon as Resolution's schedule was no longer tied to it, NASA and STC engineers were able to diagnose and resolve the issues with Independence's umbilical plate more quickly than anticipated. Independence and Destiny belatedly lifted off just two days into Resolution’s flight, cutting into a cloudless sky in front of thousands of sightseers. The mission reached orbit without incident, the aluminum protrusions within the hydrogen tank having no significant effect on the fluid distribution in flight. The Orbiter, after separating from the upper stage, opened its payload bay, exposing the Docking Module, which filled most of the small bay’s volume. Using the Canadian-built robotic arm, the crew attached the Docking Module to Destiny’s own docking ring and unfurled the small solar array. On the second day of the flight, following a complete check-out of the Docking Module and remote venting of the S-IVC’s residual propellant, the crew docked Destiny and the Docking Module to the mating attachment fitted to the top of the S-IVC’s hydrogen tank. After pressurizing the tank with compressed oxygen and nitrogen, the crew, equipped with eye protection, dust masks, and head-mounted flashlights, entered the cavernous volume of the S-IVC’s hydrogen tank.

Not since Skylab 4 had any crew had so much elbow room in a spacecraft. Pulling themselves down the length of the tank by handholds and mesh floors, the crew inspected all the brackets and attachment points inside the vehicle. Everything seemed to have survived both the launch and exposure to the hard cryogenic propellant the tank had been designed to hold. In one of the more enduringly popular images from the Shuttle program, Commander Charles Bolden, illuminated only by the light filtering in from the Docking Module and his own head-light, jumped gently from the oxygen tank’s bulkhead up the entire length of the hydrogen tank, reaching the Docking Module almost 10 seconds later.

The crew quickly set to work fitting the S-IVC out as a habitable volume. Attaching fluorescent lights to the wall-mounted brackets, they ran power cables from the Docking Module through the open hatch, and set up fans to circulate air between the two spacecraft. Coolant pipes were also run in, to help radiate the crew’s body heat and the heat given off by the electrical systems. Experiment pallets were handled in through the narrow docking hatch, and secured along the walls. This mission had few actual scientific experiments--the pallets were mostly empty--but they proved the concept of moving equipment from the tight confines of the Orbiter to the much roomier Workshop.

While Destiny’s crew could set to work immediately, it had taken most of Resolution’s lead to even reach rendezvous with the target LUCID platform. Shuttle had always used the massive delta-v capacity required by its integral pusher abort engines to provide some of its own circularization and for orbital maneuvering. Resolution took this capacity to a new level on STS-101. Instead of boosting payload, the Shuttle carried a smaller payload of barely four metric tons from its initial low, sun-synchronous polar orbit into the highly eccentric orbit of the KH-12 satellites, skimming the lower bounds of the Van Allen belt at just under 1000 km apogee. Even raising its apogee by more than 700 km would leave ample margin to reverse the maneuver for return. Still, the mission in its cloak of secrecy felt remote from Earth as they crept into visual range of the LUCID platform. The KH-12 loomed large, more like a space station than the small satellites Shuttle had previously serviced; the approach to grapple had more in common with docking to Spacelab than the Solar Maximum Mission or recovering the LDEF. Regardless of the challenge, Resolution’s commander, Richard Lawyer, managed it handily. The crew latched onto the satellite and went to work.

On this early mission, the key capability was to demonstrate any servicing at all and conduct basic inspections impossible by telemetry: future missions using the boosted capacity of the Dual-Engine Upper Stage would be required for major overhaul of the primary instruments. Still, they were able to conduct some small maintenance tasks of great value. One of the KH-12’s gyroscopes had failed in late 1986, and Resolution had brought a spare. Working together, Lawyer and Mission Specialist Henry Hartsfield extracted the failed unit and installed the replacement. The mission wasn’t solely tasked with upkeep on LUCID, though. On their next EVA, they extracted and replaced one of the platform’s magnetic tape memory modules with one of nearly double the storage capacity. These modules were used to cache images during mapping passes, as data came in from the optic’s CCD arrays faster than it could be downlinked back to Earth. By enhancing the capacity, LUCID would be able to take more pictures and provide better combined imagery of areas critical to national security. The upgraded storage had already been installed on the ground in the latest KH-12, launched earlier in 1987, but now it would be installed on the existing LUCID constellation. The other major task was one in which the National Reconnaissance Office took particular pleasure: demonstrating the capacity to swap some of the platform’s imaging systems. On this flight, they would be pulling the lightest and smallest of the platform’s instruments: the same color mapping camera which had taken the images infamously leaked to Jane’s. The new system, likewise mounted already to the newest LUCID platform, offered better resolution thanks to a revised CCD array. The leak now would constitute disinformation on actual LUCID capabilities, and the successful swap paved the way for upgrades of other optics once the DEUS became available to boost servicing mission payload.

While the crew of STS-101 were up to their elbows in billions of dollars of critical national-security hardware under near-total media blackout, the crew of STS-100 continued to create an ongoing spectacle aboard Wetlab as they tested variations on the proposed uses of wet workshops as much as possible within the limited mission capacity and duration possible in a Shuttle freeflight without an MPEM. Most excitingly to engineers planning missions to Mars and other destinations, the fifth mission day saw Ehricke’s original vision vindicated when Destiny used her attitude control thrusters to impart a very slow spin to the docked assembly. Though the center-of-mass of the spacecraft was very close to the Orbiter, the sheer length of the S-IVC’s hydrogen tank meant that even the 1-rpm spin rate achieved produced noticeable acceleration at the oxygen tank’s upper bulkhead. Cameras placed there showed objects falling gently to rest on the bulkhead, and the crew, when they ventured down to provide their own observations, reported feeling a light but noticeable weight.

The S-IVC was de-spun on the sixth day of the mission, shortly before Destiny separated and returned to Earth. Returning the Docking Module to the payload bay for possible future reuse, the crew separated from the upper stage and deorbited the Shuttle. Several days later, over the Indian Ocean, a pack of solid rocket motors fitted to the base of the empty stage fired, lowering the stage’s perigee to under 100 kilometers over the South Pacific. It joined the rest of the Low Earth Orbit S-IVCs at the bottom of the ocean just hours after. Resolution had made her return back to Earth without trouble two days earlier, carrying with her the hardware removed from LUCID.

The Wet Workshop experiment had been a technical success, but it had also revealed the shortcomings of the Wet Workshop concept. At the end of the day, the crew of STS-76 had lived and worked in a big, empty aluminum tank. Any attempt to outfit such a stage would have required a much bigger equipment module than the Docking Module or the Orbiter Destiny--there was simply no room in the spacecraft for enough equipment to actually utilize the vast bulk of the hydrogen tank. Compared to the experience of Spacelab four years earlier, the Wet Workshop required much more work to set up and had less ultimate utility. While an Equipment Module could have been built to house equipment for a functional Wet Workshop, such a module would, essentially, be a Space Station itself, rendering the Wet Workshop redundant.

The one unmitigated advantage that the Wet Workshop had over competing Space Station proposals was in the ease with which its length enabled artificial gravity experiments. Though the 1-rpm spin rate of STS-100 allowed only 3% of a G at the base of the hydrogen tank, a 4-rpm rate could provide half a G, while a 5-rpm rate would provide well over 80% of a G--enough to mitigate the deleterious effects of microgravity that had been apparent since Skylab. While this actually acted against the Wet Workshop as an Earth-orbiting Space Station (as it would render the microgravity science experiments then in-vogue impossible), it kept the Wet Workshop popular among planners of interplanetary missions. Most notably, NASA’s Design Reference Mission 1.0 for human missions to Mars would feature an S-IVC retained for the duration of the mission and spun up to address concerns about bone deterioration and interpersonal tensions among the crew.

While Wetlab had added fuel to the fire of debates over future NASA stations and beyond-Earth exploration, Resolution’s LUCID servicing mission had much more direct impact in the near term. Both missions had demonstrated the capabilities of Shuttle for major overhauls and operations on space hardware, but while Endeavour’s crews had worked almost entirely in shirtsleeves, assembling small hardware and moving materials, Resolution’s four-man crew had spent days trading off gruelling EVAs. Also, Wetlab was for the moment a one-off demonstrator. The STS-101 mission profile was one Resolution and other polar-launched orbiters were due to repeat many times over: a regular servicing schedule for the planned four-satellite KH-12 constellation would require such a mission to launch every year. The demonstration of the repair and even improvement of a delicate optical instrument already on-orbit was also groundwork for Hubble. Though the secrecy involved with LUCID operations meant that the sharing of details was challenging to arrange, NASA had assisted in developing the mission profiles and training for STS-101, as they supported all USAF Shuttle missions, and was able to learn key lessons for Hubble, still more than a year from launch.

The dual successes of STS-100 and STS-101 in 1987 were planned to be followed in 1988 by another feather in the cap of NASA’s unmanned science program, managed through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Magellan lifted off on the STS-116 on April 6, 1988, carried on a Lifter-Centaur stack. The Lifter, Liberty, separated neatly from the S-IVC second stage on-time. As they pitched the booster over to point the heavily armored ventral surface forward, to protect the rest from the flame of the second-stage engine, Commander John Blaha and Pilot Richard Richards, both veteran Lifter pilots who had made the trip half-way to orbit before, waited for the slight acceleration that would indicate the successful ignition of the J-2S-2, waiting to complete the flip for the descent burn.

It never came. The RS-IC, nose-up, coasted in free-fall as the seconds ticked by.

“Houston, be advised. We have no second-stage backscatter. Say again, we have no second-stage backscatter.”

"Copy that, Liberty, we are working it.” Back on on the ground, the voice of the Flight Director came over the main loop, talking over the ongoing discussion between the Lifter and CapCom. “All operators, contingency procedures in effect. Booster operators, watch your data. All other operators, secure all notes. GC, lock the doors." Even as the understanding of the mission failure percolated through the Space Transportation System’s vast network of control and support teams, Launch and Landing Control at Kennedy Space Center stoically prepared for the Lifter’s Return to Launch Site.[/I]
 
e of pi and I would like to thank you all for your interest and enthusiasm for this project so far, and we hope that you've enjoyed Part II. Part III will be posted after an indefinite (at least several month) hiatus--it will be the longest part yet, as it covers a longer time span than either Part I or Part II and must close out a whole lot of plot threads we've introduced in Part II.
 
So, the failure that's been hinted at for a while arrives. At least it's not a crewed mission (aside from the Booster, obviously, but they seem to be just fine).
 
Additional benefits came as McDonnell would no longer acceptance fire each stage as a unit. Instead, Rocketdyne’s acceptance firings of each engine would be used to qualify a lot, which would be delivered for assembly. After assembly, a wet dress rehearsal of the stage would test and qualify the stage’s structures and plumbing, but the SACTO test site would be mothballed, as there were no further plans for static-fires of complete S-IVC stages. The results helped stem the growth of operational costs, but involved accepting a certain degree more risk.
Here we go then.

I wonder where the failure will land though, on Rocketdyne or the STC?
 
A good Space TL i will wait patient for Part II

Some Notes
ESA new booster
for early version of 2001: A Space-Time Odyssey
i project a European reusable rocket.
It consist of winged Booster & Core stage and disposable Third stage
While the Wing booster return to launch site on own power jet engine
goes wing Core stage almost orbital and launch the third stage, who goes into GTO or Leo or sun-synchronous polar orbit.
the wing Core stage makes almost one orbit and fall back to Earth near launch site and glide to runway.
sadly In the reorientation of TL second version, we drop the concept and went for ELGO (i hope soon to be Reveal in some time )

CNES had quite interesting proposal in OTL 1985
A large winged booster using Ariane Engines and Fuel
The large second stage & Payload would be install inside "Bomb bay" in top of the Booster
after Booster engine shut down the "Bomb bay" doors open and release the Second stage.
then booster return with close doors as glider back to launch site.


On Martin-Marietta & Mitsubishi Heavy Industries join venture
Good luck you needed allot of it, because the LE-7 & LE-5A Engine had hell of problems in OTL, what let to failure of two launches and Redesign of Engines
I hope ITTL Engines are better than that
 
"Seem to be fine," eh?
Naturally you present us with the first major mission failure of the Lifter-borne system right before the hiatus of several months.

The crew of Liberty probably are not in any danger of dying, bearing in mind we have the escape capsule, and probably the Lifter itself will land with no or minor damage.

Conceivably with the second stage just drifting on initial separation charges, it will blow up or something while still very close, but I suspect in vacuum (though they are well below the Karman Line, initially, they would also be climbing up toward it, and even at a mere 67 km separation altitude, the air is absurdly thin) I suppose a much bigger risk for Liberty than concussion from ignition of 120+ tonnes of oxygen/hydrogen mix would be shrapnel from the stage, mainly from the engine, propelled by it. After all the Lifter's nose is designed to take the backwash of a J-2S engine or two; hot gases won't be the problem.

I figure they have just under 90 seconds to reach apogee and then fire their propellant ballast thrust. Note that if they fail to do this their Lifter would be DOOOOOOOMED! without that braking maneuver. I hope the ejectable capsule has TPS that can stand a 2700+ m/sec entry. Anyway the Lifter itself would be a total loss without the maneuver--be pretty nice if as ETS a loss of ship does not mean lost crew). If the pesky second stage is still in close range, a couple hundred meters or so, and the flame of the single heavy ker-lox engine does something nasty to it, too bad. They have to risk it, since ejecting the capsule without the burn first means they, the bomb-like upper stack, and the gutted and thus doubly doomed Lifter hulk (containing many hundred tons of ker-lox as well as however much fly-back kerosene) will all reenter in close proximity to each other. The odds of shrapnel from the second stage hitting the crew capsule seem pretty low to me, especially bearing in mind they would have their tail pointed at the second stage and can easily guarantee the second stage is not in line of sight, meaning any shrapnel damage will be to the tail area and the belly--where of course, the TPS is.

So it really matters just how fast the second stage is drifting. If it is going more than 2 meters/sec relative to the Lifter, I'd think that propellant braking would be an acceptable risk even if the Lifter were unmanned and the only issue was risking losing it. If the capsule is not designed to enable survival when reentering from apogee at several km/sec, I suspect the Lifter itself even if damaged can be ridden to a lower energy state before disintegrating.

The fact is I would not think the second stage is going to blow up at all, even in the backwash of an F-1B engine, as long as there is decent separation. If there is not decent separation yet, surely the Lifter can use some of its maneuvering thruster margin to increase the speed of relative drift (if they think of doing this early enough; when half of 86 seconds are used up they only will gain half the additional distance a given delta-V could have got them if applied immediately). The second stage also has some auxiliary thrusters which can be fired for more interval. Also, if its attitude is controlled to point its tail directly at the Lifter's engine set, any backwash it suffers will mainly go into the engine bell, with lower thrust structure taking most of the rest of the hit. If they are separated by a hundred meters or more, the Lifter should be all right.

Probably nothing happens to the second stage until about 3 minutes from separation when it will descend into increasingly dense air at a speed approaching 3 km/sec. Once that happens it is Game Over because surely then the lightly built S-IVC structure will start to disintegrate. But by then the Lifter will be hundreds of miles away.

All of this assumes of course that the second stage J engine will never be started. I'd think that if does not start immediately, this means all redundant means of starting it have been automatically tried and failed. Getting to start late might be a loss of mission but otherwise a clear win, unless it leads to the engine blowing up, and even then the Lifter crew are probably still OK.
--------------
I'm splitting my post up to break down into separate topics, I imagine this would be more welcome than my usual mass dump!
 
Regarding the question asked about flight profiles, for the Lifter stage I will point out that although we have been told 1500 m/sec is the never-exceed speed for a descending Lifter at any altitude below 65 km, the Lifter here and on every launch described thus far is going a lot faster, 2600 m/sec or so, at separation that is just two measly little kilometers higher than 65!

Separation, and the altitude of 65 km at which we are told the Lifter had better be going under 1500 m/sec at least when descending, happen in the middle of the "mesosphere," an atmospheric zone just above the stratosphere, in which temperatures fall until reaching the top of it around 80-85 km up. At that point, all the atmospheric parameter tables and calculators I find on line so far quit, giving me no data on the von Karmann line at 100 km and the 109-110 km apogee altitudes of Lifter missions we've been told about. However the Wikipedia article on the Line says that atmospheric density there is about 1/2.2 millionth the density at sea level, and taking calculators up to the 85 km limit, where mesospheric scale heights have decreased to under 6 km due to the low temperature, are roughly consistent with that. The vK line and Lifter apogees are at the bottom of the thermosphere, in which molecular temperatures begin to climb up and indeed reach temperatures in the thousands of degrees Kelvin--note that the air is so very sparse by then that the thermosphere, which includes the ionosphere and is the location of auroras, is pretty much equivalent to "Low Earth Orbit." The 110 km apogee is so low in the thermosphere that temperatures presumably are quite low there and anyway the low atmospheric density suggests that we don't need to worry too much about it.

Nevertheless, at von Karmann's line the density is enough to seriously degrade satellite orbits pretty rapidly. But I learned by looking it up that actually von Karmann sought to define the effective upper limit of the atmospheric, and national airspace, not in terms of minimum heights of orbits (Orbits high enough to complete one complete orbit before reentry are actually some tens of km higher) but the maximum altitude at which an aircraft could manage to get enough aerodynamic lift to stay airborne while moving at full orbital speed at that altitude. Now note that that means that a real craft actually maintaining orbital speed at 100 km and using aerodynamic lift as well would actually have double lift, two equal components from aerodynamics and from centrifugal force.

Since the Lifter is going to be moving considerably more slowly than orbital speed, even before propellant ballasting, its critical altitude would occur at a lower height. At the von Karmann line, orbital speed would in fact be a bit under 7850 m/sec, whereas the Lifter at apogee can't be moving much faster than 2450 m/sec and thus 2490 at the Line, so for the same lift we'd need to be moving in air about 10 times denser. It would be higher, in somewhat less dense air actually since the Lifter would be moving faster at lower altitudes, but anyway between 2 and 2.3 scale heights down , and a scale height will be somewhere around 6 km, so about 90 km for a pre-braking Lifter, and about 70-80 km or so for a Lifter that is braked and falling toward reaching full speed at 65 km height. Note that the Lifter thus probably experiences quite significant aerodynamic forces at heights well above 65 km!

How come it can reach speeds like 2600 m/sec at 65 km in the boost phase? Well, I'm sure it helps that the upper stack of payload and S-IVC stage are stuck on the nose; these would serve as a kind of spike to create a shock wave well ahead of the Lifter body and thus hold the higher heat flux at bay. That's good because at separation the heating flux, which I suppose goes largely as the cube of velocity, is going to be 4 or 5 times what it can take going down! Also, the components are all ascending, proceeding at between 800 and 900 m/sec at burnout to climb rapidly into thinner (and for a while, even cooler, though that factor won't matter so much) air, so the excess heat flux will plummet rapidly, falling below nominal design levels in a matter of 10 seconds or so. Over that time the flux will be something like double what the craft would suffer at 65 km cruising at 1500 m/sec. But that strikes me as brief, whereas if the Lifter could sustain a 3 G braking force dropping from 65 km to 15 or so, and from 1500 m/sec to 500 this would take some 33 seconds. There is actually no way to match these high speeds I think, because to travel the vertical distance from 65 km to 15, the spaceplane would have to sustain an average vertical speed of 1500 m/sec, over and above any transverse speed it may have. Cleary deceleration after this ballistic descent would be much lower and take much more time.

Going back to the basic question of the flight profile of the Lifter after separation (barring disasters!)--we know that it has to reach 1500 m/sec and no more upon falling to 65 km. Now I've been assuming that it essentially free falls from apogee to there, but even under the stringent assumption that while theoretical ceiling for some idealized aerodynamic craft going at 1500 m/sec might be 80 km or more, the Lifter's, given its structure and layout, is at 65 km, which is to say that is the highest altitude it can maintain a full 9.8 m/sec^2 lift acceleration on itself at that airspeed, still in the scale height or so above it, it will be able to get some lift and slow its descent somewhat--it will continue to gain speed as it falls, but with lift optimized it can shed some energy. I estimate it would be able to get significant lift as high as 8 km above 65, or at 73 km, and the average lift over that fall will be 2/3 G, so it can shed something like 50,000 Joules per kg, and therefore we can add that energy to the nominal total orbital energy we'd compute by noting it moves at 1500 m/sec at 65 km altitude. From that I estimate that at apogee of 110 km, if it does shed that energy aerodynamically while falling to 65, it can move as fast as 1221 m/sec after braking. If the braking maneuver delta V is 1250, prior to the burn it can be going as fast as 2471 m/sec, and therefore at stage separation at 67 km, could be going as fast as 2632 m/sec. Now perhaps it could even go a bit faster, because it ought to be possible to shed some speed with deliberately increased drag during the ascent, but noting that at 2.6 + km/sec it is going to be suffering high heat flux, it is probably not such a good idea to push it in that regime--by the time the climb into thinner air, which also involves slowing under gravity, happens, most of the opportunity to brake will be lost, whereas braking then will raise the heat flux still higher. If the purpose is to enable even higher separation speeds than that, clearly we would be asking for trouble to aim for much. Actually we can be sure there will be some significant drag no matter what we do, so the separation speed is going to be greater than 2630, perhaps as high as 2700!

Anyway assuming the smaller figure, note that due to conservation of angular momentum the transverse component of the speed at 67 km will be 2487.5 and thus the rate of climb at separation would be 860 m/sec. Or more, bearing the drag factor in mind, but close to these values. On descent, it is a bit tricky since I assumed some drag before falling to 65 km, but assuming it is in proportion, the 1500 m/sec speed would break down into 1203 transverse, 896 downward, 36 2/3 degrees below horizontal.

I have some notions how to estimate the profile of the second stage but they are unconventional and complicated.
 
Before you go putting too much faith in the Karman Line, remember that the formula used to calculate it uses wing loading as a variable, and Karman arbitrarily selected a wing loading that would give him his 100 km line.

The Lifter stays below 1,500 m/s during atmospheric interface by executing a braking burn. Chapter 4 in the threadmarks describes the first test flight of the Lifter.
 
I'm pretty amazed that the Reagan administration and the Space Transportation Corporation have agreed between them to rest on a grand total of 4 Lifters and spare parts for a couple more, total. We know what happens when production lines shut down and manufacturers of components cease to anticipate markets for any more of them; they lose the ability to make more should they be desired. It is all very well everyone is talking about next generation systems, but with numbers like these I don't see how the Lifter is really going to deliver on the promise of greatly lowering launch costs to the users. It may be that it has already done so, by fiat, and the STC was formed on the condition that they do not seek to maximize profits by charging all the traffic will bear, but accept a price ceiling. But if they do that, I would guess that there would be a rush to book cheap launches on STC Lifter, and 30 launches a year will not come close to meeting the demand. Of course it could simply be first come first serve deal with elements of a lottery, and priority customers like DoD and NASA have privileges to jump the queue, but this would tend to cause bad feeling all around. Really if they are going to do that it would have been far better for NASA to continue to run the launch service.

I was blundering around with some numbers, straying far from the ostensible subject of responding to Fasquardon's post about launch insurance. That document had some interesting by the way figures in it, such as mentioning that at the time it was written, apparently the early 2000s, about 500 satellites had been launched worldwide, and about 1 in ten of all launch attempts failed at some point.

Now that gives some sense of the size of the global market OTL. It does not give a breakdown of how many of the 500 were Soviet launched and how many "Western," including Japan in that category of course. Chinese and Indian satellites would be a small fraction as of the time of writing I'd think.

Conservatively I'd guess at least half were launched outside the Soviet sphere, that at least 300 really were launched on various American, European and Japanese rockets, and the period seems to be about 30 years or so. So in the West, in the time period starting in the 1980s when the Shuttle was supposed to launch everything, we've had about 10 or so launches a year and of these, in an average year we get a failure.

So yes, if the advent of Lifter has the effect of merely raising the total number of launches by a factor of three, I guess 30 launches a year would about cover it. But if that is the case, I don't think Lifter is slashing total costs by a very large amount. If launches rise by a factor of 3 versus OTL, I don't suppose it is reasonable to assume that the exact same budgets across the capitalist world are going to space--it seems likely to me that to get 3 times as many launches, one is inspiring people who OTL did not choose to attempt to put something into space. The total market should be grown, beyond merely the good fortune of the same people who were ready to pay for something going into space OTL enjoying seeing their funds go three times as far. That's a good thing to be sure, but it doesn't seem to me like what would happen if the price of a space venture, factoring in everything--the payload itself, the cost of launching, and anything else--were to drop by a factor of 3. If the price came down that far, we'd have more than 3 times the demand I'd think. Maybe not dramatically more, and I'd be making a wild guess that I think is conservative if I were to say "5" instead of 3. I might really hope it would be more like 9.

To be sure, in order to get the total cost down to 1/3, the STC would have to lower their price for their service considerably lower than that. Supposing for instance that typically, OTL the cost of the payload itself was about 1/3 the total, it would be impossible to get the total price lower than 1/3 even if STC offered their launches for absolutely free! Guessing that the real ratio of payload to launch cost is more like 1 to 10, it would be necessary for STC to offer launches at 1/4 OTL expendable prices to get the overall cost down to 1/3.

The rhetoric from early in the thread assumed even greater cost reductions that that. If NASA were to offer flights at 1/4 the otherwise prevailing market costs, we'd expect all alternative providers to be completely ruined, and there would be suspicion that these cut-rate launches are heavily subsidized by the US taxpayer (the way STS actually was OTL). So I suppose the motive to shuffle the launches off to a for-profit corporation was in part to defuse such assumptions.

But would it be rational for STC to set the prices so low, if they were left free to make pricing decisions at their own discretion? Perhaps they were simply forced to, as the cost of being given this monopoly by Uncle Sam, to carry over drastically reduced per launch charges as realistic and adequate revenues to cover their costs with a decent but not monstrously huge rate of profit. Still, if they could charge what they liked, they would not have to set prices so low that the OTL existing interests who paid for mostly expendable launches could put up three satellites where OTL they only could afford one. Either way it is the same money, but now STC has to do three launches to earn 8.8 dollars of revenue where the OTL providers collected 10 for just one launch. Why not just set the price at say 75 percent of the prevailing expendable $10 for every 1 for payload? Then it would cost the customers 8.5 instead of 11 to put up one, and so the same customer pool now pays for 13 satellites where once they paid for 10. Assuming the more optimistic elasticity that suggested to me that slashing overall prices by 3 would get you 9 times the total demand for launches, I'd expect more like 17 total launches for every 10 OTL, the other 4 all coming from people who never launched anything OTL. Thus about 30 percent more money is being spent total on space, thanks to STC lowering the price, but the 70 percent volume increase means STC collects 25 percent more total revenue than all the launch providers in the West put together did OTL. If on the other hand they were to ask just a quarter the OTL price, enabling the same interests as OTL to spend the same money to put up about pi times as many satellites of their own, and that the market overall expands to 5 times OTL in total with 60 percent more money being spent, so that now STC is collecting 14 percent more than all the launchers of OTL in the West--the launch firm winds up with less money, though far more is being spent on space in total, and to meet the demand of 5 times as many launches as OTL they need to have a capacity considerably greater than 30 per year; they need 50 a year and thus must expand their Lifter fleet from 4 to 7, develop more pad and assembly resources, very possibly open up a new launch site say at Matagorda in Texas or at Wallops. Clearly if the company is allowed to do whatever they think would maximize rate of return on investment, they will lower the launch prices only marginally, down to say 80 percent of what the cheapest expendable company can sustain, and thus suck up the entire market, without giving away 3/4 of the revenue they could potentially get!

If the Lifter system had been developed as an infrastructural project analogous to say the US highway system, to be run by the government at cost, in order to give private citizens the opportunity to have access to space so that they could figure out for themselves how to profit by going there, it would be rational for management to seek to lower prices as low as they can feasibly go, to break even. But they'd have to leave in some margin to cover the feverish costs of expanding to meet the demand such low prices would stimulate. If on the other hand the system is handed over to some private monopoly, where is their incentive to cut their profits down to modest levels and work their asses off expanding spaceports and acquiring yet more launchers? It could have been mandated, and accepted because the operational cost of Lifter is so low that the company turns a nice profit even if they only charge a quarter of expendable system costs. But isn't that exactly the kind of interference with the marketplace Reagan was opposed to in principle?

I do suppose Ronald Reagan might be perfectly capable of being both illogical and hypocritical, and spinning it, on his reassuring personal say-so, into laissez-faire entrepreneurship at its finest, all while setting up what is in fact a state run infrastructure service!

If the total expansion in volume is merely a factor of three though, that is 30 launches a year, I am going to assume the total price has not come down by a factor of three but by the square root of 3, to about 58 percent. Thus if payload OTL cost 1, and launch service 10, and launch insurance 1.1 (with a payout of 12 to cover the actual cost plus compensation for lost opportunities should a payload be lost) so OTL it cost 12.1, here it would cost 7, with the insurance companies charging .7 and STC charging 5.3. The actual cost being less than half by far, the profit margin of STC is tremendous. They rake in 160 percent what the entire launch industry did OTL, and enjoy infrastructure leased at a cheap price or sold outright to them that is more than adequate to maintain a launch rate of 30 a year. The real launch costs are far lower but the price to the customer is not even quite halved.

Then again, why should insurance companies charge 0.7 on every launch? The system reaching a count of 102 STS launches before any of them go sour suggests a far greater reliability rate than OTL, although it may be the fate of STS 102 is due to recent cost cutting measures undertaken by STC. Until then the risk of losing a payload on STS appeared to be an order of magnitude less than OTL commercial launches, really if they were to charge as much as 1 percent, that would be gouging! Instead STC would be collecting 5.9 per launch out of 7, and doing better than the combined competing OTL expendable launchers by 77 percent.

Say that the real cost reduction of Lifter is such that accounting for all costs, a Lifter launch is 1/5 the price of an OTL expendable, and ten times more reliable. Then getting away with charging 5.9 because of their monopoly, each launch rakes in 3.9 times the price of the payload as pure profit, for a rate of 180 percent! With funds like that the STC could expand like yeast, but doing so would merely undercut themselves since they'd have to slash prices to raise further market interest.

Now if the Soviets could present themselves onto the world market with something competitive, this very neat and highly profitable setup is going to be quite upset! Say the Soviet launcher system works out to be only 80 percent reliable, losing one payload in five. That's ridiculously poor, even for "cruddy" Russian engineering. Say it is so though. And that OTL, the Russians were equally chancy, but only charged 9 where Western firms charged 10, while insurance companies insisted on 20 percent premiums so the total cost of a Russian launch was 12 where a Western one was 12.1. But their new system, though no more reliable than 80 percent too, objectively costs 3 (50 percent worse than the American system) or 1/3 their expendable costs. With Western systems--the only system to consider economically rational, the STS, costing 7 all up, and the Soviets handicapped by high insurance costs, they too can charge 4.83333 and the overall cost including insurance comes to 7. Since insurance redeems any losses (I would assume that crewed launches have higher standards, and that launch escape systems save the lives of any cosmonauts or passengers who come up snake-eyes on their launch) suddenly the existing market has an alternative, and suddenly STC's 30 launch a year market will start to erode.

The Americans can afford to lower their asking price as low as 2, and with a tiny bit more for insurance since despite STS 102, it would be plausible that the US system remains highly reliable, the price falls from 7 to a bit over 3, and with my assumption of squared markets, the launch rate at that price should jump to 16 times OTL! STC suddenly needs to go from 30 launches a year to 160! Now they can't do that of course, and it is not really clear to me that the total funding of space by private enterprise and taxpayer funded programs would indeed jump to a factor of 4 over OTL just because a payload in orbit costs a quarter of what it does OTL. If they cut their price to the bone like that to trounce the Russian competition, they won't have much left over revenue for expansion either.

Say they know the Russians' limits, and that they can't charge less than 3 without taking a loss, and that insurance will still demand 0.8 on top of that, then the Americans can simply cut their price not to 2 but say 3.7. Now even with insurance the American price is lower than the Russians can go without subsidizing their system with taxpayer revenues.

But we can be sure the Russians do subsidize it, unless they simply do not have the funds to do it. After all, even if they take a loss on each launch, every one they sell to a Western customer involves an infusion of hard western cash into Russian finances. It might seem worth it to the Kremlin, to launder Russian roubles, of poor value on the global market, into hard dollars or Euros.

With the Americans and Russians both asking 3.7 per launch, with both sides competitively offering to include insurance in the form of a money-back guarantee that also compensates for the cost of the payload plus a percentage for lost business time, a launch costs 4.7 versus OTL 12.1. At these rates, the Americans still make 85 percent profit, a hard blow relative to their comfortable glory days of 180 percent, but still a gobstopping revenue flow. If they really wanted to choke the life out of Russian launch sales to the foreign market, they can do so and still make far more profit than any normal business.

Now with my probably too optimistic assumption that the inverse square of the price reduction overall tells us how much the market expands in term of annual launches with a base line of 10 per year OTL, if STC were able to keep its former monopoly of Western launches and that market grew in response to the price reduction, suddenly they'd have to go from 30 to 66 launches a year! Let's say that the first year after the Russians come onto the market and are forced to reduce their price to 3.7 with insurance included, running at cost and making no profit at all, still STC is caught with its pants down with a 30 launch per year capacity and it would take some time to more than double that.

Meanwhile the Russians cater to the new 36 launches that STC's shortsightedness has left no room for. Since their capacity will take time to grow too, they may actually be able to charge a premium, so desperate customers can get their payload up in this sudden space rush, thereby making actual profits. Even though by the time the Russian system comes to market the USSR will be no more, and the new Russian state is poor, remember that though more expensive than the Yankee system to operate, the Russian one is 1/3 the cost of their OTL expendables. It is much cheaper than Energia, which has not been developed here, and cheaper than R-7 or Proton versions. Thus the Russian state can cut their space budget to 60 percent of OTL, and still launch 50 percent more government payloads! A tighter space budget can leave Russia with improved prestige and subsidize a potential engine for sucking in foreign hard currency for their treasury. Despite being driven to the wall by the Yankees then, Russian space is objectively better off and yet cheaper in their budget. They may manage to win repeat foreign customers and are much better able to maintain their own presence in space.

The Americans have taken a blow and are still making out like bandits. That 80 percent profit rate on at first just 30 launches a year is still a lot of revenue that can be thrown at expansion. Unfortunately the existing Lifter system is costly to expand. I assume that having 4 Lifters that between them all accomplish 30 launches a year reflects saturation, whereby on average a Lifter becomes available roughy every 12 days--thus one takes 48 days to cycle from one launch to being about to make the next, and speeding this up is likely to lead to a higher rate of failure. Otherwise presumably STC, or NASA laying the ground rules, would have picked a different goal than 30, a higher one because the more launches there are, the better justified keeping the fixed ground staff. If so then the only way to take up more than 30 launches a year is to expand. Perhaps there is enough slack in the VAB and whatever assembly facilities are at Vandenberg can be saturated merely by purchasing more Lifters. Now the decision to limit the Lifter order to a mere four, with spares equivalent to just 2 more, must seem glaringly shortsighted! The right number is more like 9, and it could be that if 9 can be managed at a set of sites meant for4, this represents another cut in the basic cost of operations, from 2 down to 1.5 or so.

Another way to squeeze more tonnage out of a fixed number of Lifter launches would be to develop the larger upper stage sizes possible and persuade more customers to accept batch launches.

It would seem the spur of competition alone would tend to realize and extend the price reductions that the properly designed reusable components allow in potential.

But instead of taking what Lifter offered and making the most of it, especially making hay while the sun of total monopoly shone on the enterprise, it seems that Lifter too has been regarded as interim, half baked, temporary and to be replaced long before it has been stretched to the limit. They talk instead of improvements of a technical nature without which the launch system is just plain inadequate.

I may have a post coming on that subject!
 
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