This thread has gone a bit off-track, so... back to the actual topic. Could Reconstruction have succeeded? I think it's fairly difficult because of political realities, but that
if the will had been there, serious results could have been achieved. Now, lots of people nowadays have an instinct that tells them "punish the evil slavers! Bloody justice!" -- but this instinct is
wrong. All thoughts of vengeance must be discarded before any effective Reconstruction can be conceived of. The paramount goal must be to create a postbellum South that is best equipped to exist harmoniously and to prosper. This means minimising any resentment, and that means very deliberately saying "the whole secession and the whole war were terribly unfortunate things, and slavery was a historical error,
and now that is behind us. A new era dawns, we begin with a clean slate."
What to scribble on that fresh, blank slate? Regardless of not setting out to punish anyone, I do think that the big plantations have to be deliberately cut up. Why? Because in OTL, lots of freed blacks were soon reduced to slavery-in-all-but-name, working on the same plantations. The plantation economy must
end. Therefore, I think that a viable alt-Reconstruction strategy would have been to forcibly partition all the big plantations, and create smaller farms/plots for both freed blacks and poor whites. Why the latter? To ensure that poor whites do not feel resetment "because everything is being given to the blacks!"
At the same time, seriously get underway granting farmland ("and a mule!") out West to a lot of freed black families. Why? Again, it's best not to keep freed blacks concentrated in an area where they were subjugated and are now in direct economic competition with poor whites. If a substantial number of blacks are moved out West, the economic "pressure" among the poor in the South will correspondingly decrease, which will ease any white animosity considerably. Also, it to some extent prevents there being a "black" part of the Union.
Finally, begin major investments in infrastructure in the South. The antebellum "plantation-to-harbour" railways that only ever served that plantation economy simply are no good for a modern, thriving economy. If better infrastructure is realised, a more economically diverse South can be built up after the war, with greater opportunities for all. This, too, will reduce the risks of racial hatred based on perceived "job stealing" by former slaves. After all, there will be more jobs available for everyone.
This, I think, would be the basis for an effective Reconstruction of the South, because it really would be a true reconstruction of its hopeless, pseudo-feudal antebellum economy.
(CC
@Kirook,
@Fabius Maximus -- because we approached this matter in another thread.)