Reconstruction succeeds

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
. . . a viable alt-Reconstruction strategy would have been to forcibly partition all the big plantations, and create smaller farms/plots for both freed blacks and poor whites. Why the latter? To ensure that poor whites do not feel resetment "because everything is being given to the blacks!"

At the same time, seriously get underway granting farmland ("and a mule!") out West to a lot of freed black families. Why? Again, it's best not to keep freed blacks concentrated in an area where they were subjugated and are now in direct economic competition with poor whites. If a substantial number of blacks are moved out West, the economic "pressure" among the poor in the South will correspondingly decrease, which will ease any white animosity considerably. . .
I think military commanders, similar to MacArthur in Japan, have to be there to do the rebuilding. And you have to stay both firm and loosey-goosey about goals and tactics, and that's going to be a balancing act.

For example, resentment between poor whites and blacks may end up being either a bigger or smaller problem than we anticipate. And we adjust accordingly.
 
One of the major mistakes made by the Founding Fathers (in my humble opinion), was giving life time terms to SCJ's. Limiting their time on the bench would have allowed for fresh opinion on a more frequent timescale.


The crucial mistake came later. The number of Justices on the Court was much too few.

If there were twenty or thirty Justices on the Court, it would be impossible for one POTUS to radically change its character by the accident of having several vacancies come up on his watch.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
. . . the entire economy of the south has to change . . .

. . . I was toying with the idea of Lincoln recognizing this and doing as much as he could to rectify it. . . . . . money was not paid to the former rebels but rather served as a reconstruction fund to which communities could apply for local repairs and improvements. . .

How the heck does Lincoln (or anyone else) get Congress to fund anything like that when they already have the war to pay for?
Similar to Pres. Truman selling the Marshall Pkan to rebuild Europe after WWII. Now, Truman believed he had to scare hell out of the American public. Hopefully, post-Civil War would be less fear-mongering and more of the idea, we’ve got to assure a victory and come back together as a nation.

And also the idea that because of the war, a lot of useful infrastructure projects have been neglected in the north, too.
 
Similar to Pres. Truman selling the Marshall Pkan to rebuild Europe after WWII. Now, Truman believed he had to scare hell out of the American public. Hopefully, post-Civil War would be less fear-mongering and more of the idea, we’ve got to assure a victory and come back together as a nation.


Thing is, Truman was able to sell this because of the looming Cold War. There's no Stalin in 1865 to provide a new threat.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
In general, I fully embrace the challenge, that maybe even if we pull and weave several different threads there’s only a one out of three chance of it working our really well,

but all the same, I want a timeline every bit as good as . . . Queen’s “We Will Rock You/We Are The Champions”! ! !
 
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In general, I fully embrace the challenge, that maybe even if we pull and weave several different threads there’s only a one out of three chance of it working our really well,

but all the same, I want a timeline every bit as good as . . . Queen’s “We Will Rock You/We Are The Champions”! ! !

Something something something 14,000,605 something something 1.
 
I think honestly a differently worded 14th and 15th amendment could do it. Change the 14th amendment to something direct like "all people who are born in the jurisdiction of the United States government must have equal protection under the law, and the rest of the rights provided by the Constitution are hereby incorporated to the states." Then the 15th amendment: "All male citizens have the right to vote, unless such right is taken away under due process of law." It would be slightly more legalese than this, but it should be that clear.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
I think honestly a differently worded 14th and 15th amendment could do it. Change the 14th amendment to something direct like "all people who are born in the jurisdiction of the United States government must have equal protection under the law, and the rest of the rights provided by the Constitution are hereby incorporated to the states." . .
This would help. But I think we need a couple of threads at the same time. Such as Congress pushing Gen. Sherman to act quicker, and such as more focus on infrastructure and a modern economy.

* people believe in infrastructure so much that a responsible politician almosts needs to undersell it by reminding people, hey, it’s not going to produce as many jobs as you think, and besides these are temporary jobs
 
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Gerrymander the South so the Democrats can't ever win another election. Split pro-Republican chunks of existing states, and consolidate the rest to reduce representatuion i.e. combine the Carolinas, combine Alabama, Mississipi, and Georgia, etc.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Do not let southern authorities confiscate the guns of newly freed men and women.

https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1027&context=gcjcwe

We could have a great discussion of what might be a good policy regarding firearms during rebuilding, whether open carry, whether people check their guns at the door of the courthouse, etc. But whatever rules we have, they have to apply equally between sons and daughters of former slaves and sons and daughters of former slaveholders.
 
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Gerrymander the South so the Democrats can't ever win another election. Split pro-Republican chunks of existing states, and consolidate the rest to reduce representatuion i.e. combine the Carolinas, combine Alabama, Mississipi, and Georgia, etc.
Gerrymanders are double edged swords though. If all human beings were stamped with a certain identity at birth, and kept it through thick and thin, it could work, though you have to keep adjusting it for demographic shifts. Since the goal is to buy a modest amount more time for more Reconstruction to work well, you don't need it to work forever, just a decade or so might do it.

But consider that the nature of Reconstruction succeeding is precisely to change hearts and minds. It is not 100 percent just that, it is also about getting people in a disadvantageous situation into one where they are stronger and can fight for themselves (via peaceful legal means of course...but ultimately, in a knock down vigilante fight, to hold their own as well so they can't be terrorized into submission). But to an extent Reconstruction must reconcile people who OTL refused to accept freed African Americans as equals on any terms (even limited--though one reason bigots fight even limited acceptance of equality in limited spheres is that it tends to lead to broadening acceptance and eventually perhaps total social merger) to learn to live with it and even take advantage of free African Americans as useful allies. (This is exactly what the hard core of resistance to Reconstruction reviles and fears the most of course!)

Minds are in fact capable of changing. I don't think you can leverage boundaries in the South to give African Americans, all by themselves, control of everything. They have the number to control, I'm going to guess, between a fifth and a third of the South's territory, especially if they can be relocated en masse and white people moved out to compensate. But the Union never had that level of Stalinist control, any migration necessary must be pretty much voluntary.

One weakness of Reconstruction was that to an extent, it was necessary to impose dictatorial control, and in favor of the formerly disfavored Africans. To an extent a victorious Union could have justified some of that by pointing out the former slaves had in fact assisted the Union victory, they were loyal allies of Union and thus deserved some favor--an argument that obviously boomerangs against the freed people, if the local white elites regain power because then in the local setting that matters, they are the opposite of loyalists, rather traitors to an alien hostile power.

Proposing to rely on rigging political boundaries to favor one side and subvert democracy is another layer of such dictatorial control which easily is seen as oppression in itself--the only way it is not oppressive is if the side that is disfavored is accurately described as illegitimate itself. Organizing a territory so as to frustrate criminal gangs is something honest citizens can understand and support--provided the majority of citizens identify with law and order and not the "criminals!"

If instead you were to propose the formation of a separatist African American set of states--expel all white people (or those the African Americans don't approve anyway) from South Carolina, reconfigure a couple new states out of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and similarly expel all unwanted whites from there, strongly urge all AA people outside these selected precincts to move while there is still time to the new black states--that might pragmatically work. It would be laden with Unfortunate Implications of course about the inability of black and white Americans to get along with each other of course, but such despair of humanistic hopes is going to seem only realistic to many people throughout the entire century and a half between 1865 and today. But logistically it is a nightmare, and politically, an outrage.

But trying to leverage control over the whole former Confederacy via gerrymandered districts? Not without rigging the elections on top of that you can't! African American majorities would be able to spread only so far, and the farther one reaches and thinner one stretches them, the more likely small demographic shifts, or difficult to suppress acts of terrorism, might flip the districts the "wrong" way and boomerang the figleaf of legitimacy. Knowing the game is rigged against them for real, anti-Reconstructionists would regard any kind of victory their side won as legitimate and sneer at cavils against underhanded or terroristic methods, calling such Cassandra cries, the kettle calling the pot black.

If one is attempting a moral reform, it is necessary to prefer the high road over the low road. Gerrymanders are generally for criminals, and the cases where they are not (majority-minority districts for instance to enable minorities to have a fair share of representation, as mandated by 1960s era court rulings and civil rights legislation) suffers by association.

Note for instance how so many reformists today say "get rid of the Gerrymander!" not seeming to realize that 1) in a first past the post election system, it is necessary sometimes to have some gerrymanders, as noted above and 2) who shall watch the watchers? I think we can get rid of the evils of gerrymanders only by finding means of bypassing district composition as determining outcomes--proportional voting in other words. Then we would not require the "good" gerrymanders either, and we could just district any old way, outrageous or straightforward, it would not matter because the true democratic majority surfaces either way. Meanwhile if we stick to FPTP, there is no such thing as politically neutral districting--someone benefits from any given scheme, and the least unfair approaches (say to devise mindless mathematical procedures to define the districts) also leave those the actions of the Civil Rights Era tried to take to protect minorities who had been systemically excluded from legislatures nullified.

So you are not wrong really in observing, or anyway disclosing whether you meant to or not, that when we have FPTP elections at all, the districts are a battleground that can empower a minority over a majority. But aside from questions of whether it is ethical to favor a minority in that way (an unusual case for it in this instance can be made after all) we have to ask how practical is it, and I think it plainly is going to boomerang hard against the people who impose it and against the people those well meaning meddlers are trying to promote.

Efforts are needed, but outrageously unfair gerrymanders are a cure worse than the disease. Don't burden the freed people with the moral onus of that on top of everything else they were blamed for! Because it is not going to win them long term victory.
 
Reconstruction succeeding would mean that Dixie remains an agricultural backwater for technological/socioeconomic reasons for decades, like OTL. The one difference is that some of the planters/local warlords running things for their own benefits would be black or mixed race and not white. Between that and the legal* barriers to interrmarriage going away early not really that much would change for dixie proper beyond a tighter labor pool -- more dislocation from a more successful reconstructions get you similar results for northern cities/the west as the old 1865 immigration atl's barriers would have.

* but not social barriers. Compare white/black or tbh anyone/black intermarriage rates to say white/asian or white/hispanic.
 
Reconstruction succeeding would mean that Dixie remains an agricultural backwater for technological/socioeconomic reasons for decades, like OTL. The one difference is that some of the planters/local warlords running things for their own benefits would be black or mixed race and not white. Between that and the legal* barriers to interrmarriage going away early not really that much would change for dixie proper beyond a tighter labor pool -- more dislocation from a more successful reconstructions get you similar results for northern cities/the west as the old 1865 immigration atl's barriers would have.

* but not social barriers. Compare white/black or tbh anyone/black intermarriage rates to say white/asian or white/hispanic.
Would you care to unpack your reasoning a bit here? I can think of several ways that more successful reconstruction would make the south more competitive and not so much attractive to capital, I admit, but more able to raise and leverage its own capital.

1) in partisan politics, it would be up for grabs and probably always under some tension, no "solid South" one way or the other. Therefore it is in a stronger position to leverage consideration in politically brokered deals, this is true of either side of the Southern political divide--each wants some quid for their pro quo to their respective Northern counterparts, and is likely to get it.

Note also that the conservative dead hand so characteristic of the Gilded age right up to the Great Depression is liable to be broken up as well--no de facto alliance of a permanent majority of conservative Republicans and southern Democrats here! Sometimes southern conservatives are in ascendency at the same time as northern ones, in fact one metric of how successful Reconstruction is is that the distinction between North and South is lowered so they ought to be pretty much in synch. When this happens we get a backlash period. But other times progressive Southern and Northern factions are in ascendency and when that happens the dead hand is expressed mainly by the courts...but given alternating periods of progress and reaction, neither side can really pack the courts. Judges tend to lean conservative for structural reasons having to do with their basic social position but the fact that the stereotype today is the opposite--it is reactionary judges who seem out of step and your average cop or law show (to be sure, part of the reactionary push generally!) is going to still portray most judges as liberal to the point of dysfunctionality, shows that indeed a long hard progressive push can shift the norms on a multi-generational time scale. The outcome of alternations of power between a nationally prevalent period of reaction and others of progressivism will be I think to moderate some judges into a neutral partial drag on both sides, and to kind of scramble the stronger partisans of each side, making multi-member benches weird salads of both with some moderates tossed in as well. We can expect less one-sided court rulings therefore as well.

2) Less tension around race in the South means an alliance of poor blacks and whites pretty much; this is exactly what institutional racism evolved to prevent after all. Thus politics will be biased in a progressive direction as these factions seek greater equity, and that will have an economic component in a tendency toward higher wages, more unionism, more sympathy for socialism and so forth--and all that might deter capital investment, but also foster the effective accumulation of home grown capital. Being backward can sometimes appear as an economic advantage; there is more room for advancement, which might defer deep class and social conflict in a win win, "rising tide lifts all boats" small-r reconstruction (and surge ahead to Yankee standards) era of good feeling.

You may well have some strong and weighty counterweights to these suppositions of mine, or may wish to debunk the claims I make and show they are ill founded and the truth is the opposite. But I'd need to ask you to spell these arguments out because I can't simply agree with your supposition that either Reconstruction is irrelevant to the South's position in the national economic constellation, or that it is actively bad for Southern development. It seems to me plain that the worst handicap the South faced was precisely its reactionary social and political structure, which enabled investors from outside the region to connive with a relatively few Southern partners in crime to expatriate large profits from stingy investments, along similar lines to how Third World nations are exploited--in fact the South between Civil War and Depression, and indeed the antebellum South as well, was a kind of Third World internal colony. This is probably a major if unspoken reason why the North abandoned Reconstruction; the same wing of Robber Baron supporting Republicans who opposed the various left wing offshoots and the hybrid People's Party before fearing anarchists, socialists, syndicalists and communists not to mention labor unions as such could clearly sense "nothing good" from their point of view would reward the effort to leave the African American freed people on a social and legal level with southern whites; from their point of view the Civil War was mainly about the Union retaining control of strategic territory, not about social justice. (I trust this division will not be read in too cartoonish a sense; I suppose many individuals had a lot of both flavors of Republicanism in their souls, no one is pure one or the other).

That obviously makes the project of justifying Reconstruction following through more difficult, if in fact the Republicans were in conflict within themselves from the beginning.

But vice versa it also means that if they do follow through, somehow, that conditions for Southern labor, and therefore for southern industry as well, should be markedly better for all sections.
 
1) I didn't say reconstruction was bad for dixies' development, I just don't see it as a radical socioeconomic shift in structural levels. IMO the most change you could get from reconstruction would be preventing jim crow and speeding dixie's educational convergence with the rest of the nation a generation or two ahead of OTL. This would be a shift, but not enough to avoid OTL's situation with Dixie as an internal economic colony for a long time.
2) Those two things would help boost things over OTL, but they wouldn't change economic/technological factors that'd keep the south significantly behind the north in terms of urbanization/general modernization for a long time. I really don't see much of a boost of investment in Dixie by removing the race issue -- the north isn't going to want to fund competition plus as OTL you'd still see something like the gilded age. Any improvements in education/urbanization/productivity in Dixie would be changes within the overall structure compared to otl, but nothing truly revolution.

I'll concede that reducing the racial divide would get big in the 20th century -- MUCH less ability to use race to block populist appeals come the populist era/depression. Odds are we get most of the new deal/progresive era changes in bits and pieces 1870-1920, with I'll go out on a limb and say nonracial bits of the great society, stronger pro-union legislaiton than OTL and some form of universal healthcare out of the *1930s.
 
All that strikes me as huge, and the legal veto conservatives had in the Gilded Age due to shared interests of Northern and Southern conservatives becomes a periodic thing, so we are differing in opinion as to how much difference it makes. I think a lot and for the good.
 
Why wouldn't we see a similar legal veto from northern/southern conservatives in ttl, anyways? Sure, you'd make sure the management of the plantations/local businesses would have some black faces, yes but imo that wouldn't be enough to totally remove the veto. Weaken it enough to make sure the US is a bit to the economic left of OTL by 1900, or 1935, or 2018 sure but it'd sitll be there.
 
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