So, to clarify:
[*]The United States will have issues with getting developping horizontally (living space in the West) or vertically (more industries); in the former, will we see a repeat of the OTL Republic of Texas, causing frictions with Spain or the United Kingdom? And, in the latter, will Hamilton's industrialist views have more influence than Jefferson's more agrairian ones? I might cause changes in political behaviour such as a national bank being definitively established way sooner and less controversies about public works. [/LIST]
While how we present the USA/BNA has not been worked out I am leaning towards having a parallel TL dealing with BNA and USA set in this universe. We would have stories starting in a thread and continue in another thread.
As for (US) future development what I can say is that there will be a mix. The southern states agricultural policies will the largest since most of the available land over the Appalachian will be south of the Ohio River. Meanwhile the northern states deprived of ability to expand westward will instead try concentrate on internal development.
As for future expansion Spain still controls everything to the west and Florida. If things follow same pattern as iotl there would be a transfer of Louisiana to France.
Even if France offers the same terms to USA to settle the debt the weaker US will find it harder to repay. Plus don’t know if things work out same as iotl but if France tries to sell Louisiana don’t know if US able to buy it, would a British government with a larger BNA take more interest in Louisiana during the 1st coalition wars?
The wrinkles introduced will affect all countries but the US will still be a beacon and destination for many and it will grow. The same political and structural issues will exist for both Spain and France. Therefore be hard or impossible to wave some of the outcomes away.
[*]TTL like OTL, Louis XVI keeps being too weak to force the needed reforms, causing his dynasty's downfall. OTOH, given an already autonomous Catholic national church exists, will the Gallican Church splitting from Rome be less problematic, thus removing a part of the dissent against the Revolution (TTL, Vendeans might be less likely to revolt)
The history of Galician Church and the tug of war between France and Roman papal authority had preceded Portuguese Catholic Church by a good century if not more. When the religious and political revolt occurred in Portugal the French government and French Catholic Church looked upon the Portuguese with disdain and revolt for the French idea was never to break with Rome but to “improve” the communication and administrative process.
Now while in time the Portuguese model could of been used as inspiration, the financial situation and structural problems in France were such that but neither the nobility nor church were prepared to make the change. Therefore you are right that under the right circumstances this could of helped alleviate one of the major problems but there lacked the appetite and I think more importantly there lacked someone who could drive the reforms through.
The Portuguese had witnessed a major catalytic event in 1755 with the Earthquake that allowed the likes of Pombal to take control of country and drive his reforms through. This was facilitated by king Joseph I who not only gave Pombal the ability to govern but his undying support even under continued requests/demands from nobles, church and other royal members to dismiss Pombal. The events that led to the Tagus Accord were the culmination of over 20 years of massive change and a last ditch attempt to overthrow Pombal.
The defeat of nobles, church and royal members by Pombal and king allowed for the “final” defeat of noble and church power in country.
These circumstances were absent in France and the economic and political circumstances France found itself after the ARW which would eventually lead to the French own revolution but lacked a calamity great enough to force the two major powers nobles and church to accept the required reforms to satisfy the people demands for reforms and freedoms. I think more importantly the French lacked someone who had the combination of conviction, ambition and more importantly power to drive the reforms through. The French king was not one who you could count on for support. As history has shown his support lasted only till someone else was able sway the kings mind (which was very frequent).
Therefore by 1790s the French were doomed to witness a revolution that would make the Portuguese one look tame in comparison and many a country such as Catholic Spain would open up to Portugal and seek its help to combat the horrors coming out of France.
[*]In Great Britain, if reformism is on the rise, will stuff such as Catholic emancipation, the liberalisation of the franchise and the end of rotten borough be pursued earlier? speaking of which,what about Ireland?
[*]In the Netherlands, will the Patriots be more luckier than OTL, where they were able to return only with French help? Where will the Dutch migrate (Southern Africa, India, Indonesia, Northern America), since Australia is off limits?
[/LIST]Few items here:
Britain - you have touched upon two main issues that will be featured in upcoming post (future) that will feature prominently in the development of BNA which are Catholic emancipation and Ireland. These two factors as you have indicated will start being worked on gradually during the 18th century. While the other which includes rotten borough and liberalization of franchise will receive greater push and if there were no Napoleonic wars could of been implemented at the start of the 19th century but the wars will delay them but pressure will only grow for reforms.
Netherlands - this country too will be featured in a future post. As for migrants like iotl the Dutch will lack a settler colony with loss of South Africa (which was only place they had till Napoleon wars, then none after). Here they lost it 20 years earlier and some Dutch could still migrate there it will be under British control.
The Dutch still have their Caribbean islands, their colony in South America, some factories snd outposts in Gold Coast, Ceylon and access to southern India along with remaining Dutch East Indies which includes (Sumatra, Java and Celebs). Neither of these are “empty” and available for settlements. Therefore majority of Dutch settlers will migrate to America, British and even Portuguese empires.
We could see the Dutch try to establish a Dutch speaking enclaves in its empire but that would require a substantial change in manner in which the Dutch colonial empire in India, Ceylon and East Indies are conducted which till then was limited to Dutch merchant and administration control while not upsetting locals with religious missionaries and settlers.