Realistic PODs for a surviving Al-Andalus

[Bomster]

Al Andalus is one of the most interesting societies in world history. It was an eclectic, diverse society of Muslims, Christians, and Jews living together in relative harmony compared to other regions at the time. It was one of the most advanced societies in Europe for its time, with Cordoba alone being a center of arts, learning, and the highest population in Europe. It was a land where the Arab world met the European world, east meets west. And then, after 600 years, it was gone, swept away by the Reconquista.

How could Al Andalus have continued on into the present? Would it take avoiding it fracturing into the Taifas? What was the best chance for a Muslim Iberia to continue existing to the modern day. What would a still existing Al Andalus look like, and how would that affect the eventual discovery of the New World. Hell, could it butterfly the entire Great Divergence and lead to a less European dominated world?

 

[Zenevidas]

Maybe preventing the viziers from taking control of the Caliph?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Al Andalus is one of the most interesting societies in world history. It was an eclectic, diverse society of Muslims, Christians, and Jews living together in relative harmony compared to other regions at the time. It was one of the most advanced societies in Europe for its time, with Cordoba alone being a center of arts, learning, and the highest population in Europe. It was a land where the Arab world met the European world, east meets west. And then, after 600 years, it was gone, swept away by the Reconquista.

That's a very rose tinted view of it.

How could Al Andalus have continued on into the present?

It could go native rather than continue concentrating all political power in a tiny population of Arab and North African colonists.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Most people will suggest that you "simply" stop Almanzor from taking power, which involves having Al-Hakam II live longer (IOTL he died in 976, leaving his 10-year old son at the mercy of the elite who pushed him around), but I honestly think that's already too late. Al-Andalus has many structural issues plaguing them, like discriminating policies, decentralization, and the inability to raise a standing army, which would still haunt the state even if the hajibs don't take power.

SealTheRealDeal is right – imo, the best way of saving al-Andalus (at least as anything more than an Arab state in Europe, for Arabs by Arabs) is by having Omar ben Hafsún succeed in his attempts to usurp the Umayyads in the 9th century. He was actually rapidly gaining steam, but a fatal defeat at his home turf in 891 destroyed much of his momentum, and he lost the respect of his followers when he converted to Christianity, becoming a mere footnote in history.

ben Hafsún wanted to emancipate the Muladí (native Iberian Muslims) and Mozarabs after unseating the Umayyads, and Arabic would have likely been supplanted by Mozarabic in several fronts (like governance), or at least become a second state language (instead of the sole one). Doing this would likely stabilize the country, as it would hand power from the (oppressive) Arab elite to the overwhelming majority of the country. (Note that the Arabic language is unlikely to disappear even if ben Hafsún takes power; it is, after all, the language of the Quran, and a language of high culture in the Muslim world. Mozarabic would definitely become the first language of the country, but Arabic is going to stick around for sure)

Imo, having ben Hafsún take power is your single best bet to save al-Andalus. I'm not sure whether there'd still be a caliphate (especially since he didn't descend from the Quraysh tribe, though that didn't stop the Ottomans from declaring themselves caliphs, even if many Muslims didn't offer them recognition), but al-Andalus would be a more egalitarian state under his rule, which could allow a lot of its structural problems to be addressed, as well as for there to be more centralization and political stability. Making him win the Battle of Poley seems like a good PoD, since that loss of ben Hafsún's was the beginning of his fall from grace.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Do note that you can probably keep Al-Andalus around in some form after 976, but by that point it would either be fully monolingual in Arabic (with all native Iberians having assimilated) or a province of Morocco, depending on your PoD. It would also be pretty weak in the former case.

Keeping al-Andalus around as a stronger power that can exert a wide sphere of influence and where the Mozarabic language thrives instead of becoming extinct requires an earlier PoD (like ben Hafsún).

I'm also just going to assert my belief that a Muslim victory at Las Navas de Tolosa in 1212, despite its common use as a PoD for Al-Andalus, is unlikely to work. The Almohads were resented by the Iberians for their radical fundamentalism (even other Muslims tended to think they were wack; the founder of the Almohad Caliphate was almost murdered in Egypt because he kept pissing off the locals with his preaching) and destroyed much of their tax base with their "convert to Islam or die" mentality. Their rule was doomed to collapse sooner or later; the caliphate was always on a strict time limit, no matter its location or geographic extent. Winning at Las Navas de Tolosa buys them a few extra years, but won't stop their inexorable demise.

 

[Elfwine]

Winning at Las Navas de Tolosa buys them a few extra years, but won't stop their inexorable demise.

A question that comes to mind is if that necessarily means that what emerges from their collapse is also doomed. I mean, if the Christian kingdoms lose badly, they're not really in a position to take advantage of that "Almohad collapse" is going to be a messy process to the extent they were OTL.

 

[Karl der Große]

Dunno if it's possible. French demographic explosion at the time was massive. All those nobles volunteering for the Reconquista need to go somewhere. If Al Andalus can somehow hold on till the Little Ice Age and the Black Death, they could probably pull through to the modern age.

 

[jacob ningen]

ASB and it wont help but make Walladah caliph during OTL abdul al rachim just because she was much less at the mercy of the advisors.
In seriousness as everyone else mentioned, and this brought them down in the east as well the non-conversion coupled with the restriction of office to Banu Quyrash. Its kind of the Ummayyad Achilles' Heel.

 

[Vinization]

@Planet of Hats

 

[Planet of Hats]

ASB and it wont help but make Walladah caliph during OTL abdul al rachim just because she was much less at the mercy of the advisors.
In seriousness as everyone else mentioned, and this brought them down in the east as well the non-conversion coupled with the restriction of office to Banu Quyrash. Its kind of the Ummayyad Achilles' Heel.

There was conversion, actually. By the time the 1100s rolled around, Al-Andalus had crossed the threshold of being majority Muslim. It generally takes about 300-400 years, if you look at studies of how conversion worked in the Muslim periphery.

For some of the above, Las Navas de Tolosa is far too late for anything more than a rump al-Andalus as part of a greater Berber empire, and even then, having it run by the Almohads is a recipe for that al-Andalus being a flash in the pan. The doctrinal differences between the Almohads and the Andalusian mainstream are very deep - Andalusi Muslims were generally Maliki in their jurisprudence and didn't trust the Almohads' ultra-rigorist variant any more than religious minorities did. Even winning at Las Navas de Tolosa just buys a few more years before Almohad authority in Iberia eventually falls apart and the remaining landholders are left as taifas for the north to swallow up piecemeal.

You pretty much have to strike before the first taifa period if you want to keep al-Andalus alive. Almanzor didn't break al-Andalus singlehandedly - he moved it along, but I think it could've been saved right up until Sanchuelo got it into his head to get himself named successor to the nominal caliphate. One of the biggest things Umayyad al-Andalus had going for it was the legitimacy that came with the Umayyad name: Without them, any governor of the region is merely a viceroy or a self-claimer. Almanzor set the conditions, but Sanchuelo pushing Hisham II aside put a knife in the Umayyads' legitimacy and opened the door to every petty warlord in the region to go into business for himself. If you can salvage the Umayyad legitimacy awhile longer or even just arrange for a more orderly transition (because there's ample evidence that an Islamic state in this period can function as essentially a shogunate run by capable viziers), there's hope for the south of Spain to become more foundationally Islamicized and solidly grounded.

The other option is, again, al-Andalus as the northern province of a Berber empire based in the Maghreb, but you need better overlords than the Almohads to pull it off. You could pull it off by having the Fatimids go west from Mahdia instead of playing for Egypt, even, and have a subsequent Andalusian taifa period balanced out by someone reluctantly calling in the Fatimids and their giant navy.

Ed.: Of course the big cards are a) no Berber Revolt, and b) no Banu Hilal. Either option gives a surviving Andalusian polity more stability in North Africa and more opportunity for fruitful alliances.

 

[jacob ningen]

There was conversion, actually. By the time the 1100s rolled around, Al-Andalus had crossed the threshold of being majority Muslim. It generally takes about 300-400 years, if you look at studies of how conversion worked in the Muslim periphery.


You pretty much have to strike before the first taifa period if you want to keep al-Andalus alive. Almanzor didn't break al-Andalus singlehandedly - he moved it along, but I think it could've been saved right up until Sanchuelo got it into his head to get himself named successor to the nominal caliphate. One of the biggest things Umayyad al-Andalus had going for it was the legitimacy that came with the Umayyad name: Without them, any governor of the region is merely a viceroy or a self-claimer. Almanzor set the conditions, but Sanchuelo pushing Hisham II aside put a knife in the Umayyads' legitimacy and opened the door to every petty warlord in the region to go into business for himself. If you can salvage the Umayyad legitimacy awhile longer or even just arrange for a more orderly transition (because there's ample evidence that an Islamic state in this period can function as essentially a shogunate run by capable viziers), there's hope for the south of Spain to become more foundationally Islamicized and solidly grounded.

that was my initial position last year as well. If Sanchuelo maintains the hajibate as de facto but maintains more of a facade of Umayyad authority it will last

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Keeping the caliphate around post-976 is probably possible as well up until Sanchuelo does his thing, as Planet of Hats has pointed out. I do personally prefer a seizure of power by Omar ben Hafsún, though I'm probably biased because I love Mozarabic, lol.

Increasing Arabization was ongoing by the time Almanzor and Sanchuelo took power, so it is likely that al-Andalus will end up being a monolingually Arabic country. You could, of course, always unleash "the big man" to go stop this. Maybe one of the hajibs succeeding Almanzor or Sanchuelo decides that Mozarabs and Muladí are actually really cool and decides to emancipate them. Or maybe the hajib is of mixed Arab-Iberian descent and decides to introduce equality. Hisham II is also a bit of a blank canvas due to how little he did in the way of ruling, so if you entirely remove Almanzor from the picture and give Al-Hakam II some extra years of life, you could also make Hisham decide to end the Arabization policies. His mother, Subh, was of Basque origin, so maybe that (along with a Muladí wife, or a converted princess from a Christian kingdom) could push Hisham to emancipate the Iberians.

Of course, this basically relies on the big man trope, and ben Hafsún's seizure of power gives you a much more plausible setup for a Mozarabic al-Andalus (especially since unlike Hisham or whoever you decide to invent for the new hajib, we know for sure that he wanted to emancipate the native Iberians), but you can definitely still get it done after 976. After the taifas emerge though, it leave the realm of possibility as a whole.

 

[Michael B]

I would start with the destruction of every Christian kingdom south of the Pyrenees. It would a lot harder for the Christians to launch a Reconquista if they have only a Mediterranean coastal strip plus some mountain passes from which to launch it.

That means subduing Asturias. Not easy and the Moslems on OTL failed. However without the kingdom it is going to be harder for the Christians to push into Spain and there is no native Christian population constantly snipping at Islamic Spain.

 

[Lalli]

I would start with the destruction of every Christian kingdom south of the Pyrenees. It would a lot harder for the Christians to launch a Reconquista if they have only a Mediterranean coastal strip plus some mountain passes from which to launch it.

That means subduing Asturias. Not easy and the Moslems on OTL failed. However without the kingdom it is going to be harder for the Christians to push into Spain and there is no native Christian population constantly snipping at Islamic Spain.

Agree. Destroying Asturias is absolutely first step. Muslims probably still has deal with French later but when have not Iberian Christian nations to bother them have better chance. And yet find way to keep Córdoba as unified instead allowing that to be dissolved to several taifas.

 

[Planet of Hats]

Agree. Destroying Asturias is absolutely first step. Muslims probably still has deal with French later but when have not Iberian Christian nations to bother them have better chance. And yet find way to keep Córdoba as unified instead allowing that to be dissolved to several taifas.

Delaying French state formation is low-key a way to keep the heat off al-Andalus for awhile. Anything works here, from averting the Capets from taking power to keeping Carolingian France more of a mess of infighting and external war.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

As people have said before, stopping the discrimination against the local Iberian Muslims and having them actually have positions of power is the first, most important step with keeping the Almohads out of power as a second important step. Getting those two are the most important and the others while helpful, aren't as pressing, so conquering the Christian Kingdoms and keeping the French out of Iberia is a good job for the next decades, might look into trying to exert influence and control over Morocco and parts of North Africa like Algeria in general, maybe keeping islands like Sicily and Sardinia if Al-Andalus gets enough of a good navy.


I do wonder what would be the long terms of Al-Andalus surviving, the butterflies would be crazy.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

I do wonder what would be the long terms of Al-Andalus surviving, the butterflies would be crazy.

I've messed around with a surviving al-Andalus before. The timeline I did this in somewhat resembled OTL in some ways, to the point where on this board it would probably be seen as butterfly murder, but it's still fun to try to place al-Andalus in a familiar version of the planet. I had several spitball ideas for what al-Andalus could do, with varying levels of plausibility and interesting from my end and in no particular order:

• A large minority of Protestant refugees from Spain/Portugal and Italy, as well as Cathars and Huguenots, make the country their new home. The caliph notices the pushback and oppression by the Catholic powers, goes "oh, cool" and invites all of them to settle in his country, where they contribute to the arts and economy;
• An Andalusi colonial empire, which includes Mexico (vassalized/Islamized Aztec and Purépecha Empires), Central America, Nigeria, Arakan (or even the whole of Myanmar/Burma), the Maldives, Mindanao, maybe even Madagascar and the Ryukyu Islands... The empire prefers protectorates and vassalizations over direct annexations and settler colonies, so the native cultures are usually left intact after the locals are converted to Islam (if they weren't already Muslims);
• Mozarabic as the primary national language, Andalusi Arabic as the language of liturgy and the elite, and Ladino as the language of the local Jewry;
• Conversion from Sunni Islam to Ibadi Islam, and spreading the Ibadi faith around their colonial empire
• A sphere of influence in North Africa (if not outright annexation of the coastline). Assuming a Mozarabic dynasty shows up, they could even promote and revitalize African Romance in Tunisia and Algeria should they get that far;
• Córdoba as Europe's second-largest city and second cultural capital, after Constantinople (assuming the Byzzies are still trucking along, which is far from impossible with a PoD this early)
• The Caliph of Andalusia could, at least nominally, be the head of the Muslim world (at least the Sunni/Ibadi one) after the Ottoman Caliphate goes down. Whether he would be recognized as such is a different story, especially if he doesn't descend from the Quraysh (it didn't stop the Ottomans, but it cost them recognition from many Sunni groups)
• Perhaps they could even prop up the Emirate of Sicily?

Again, a lot of this comprises a sizeable number of OTL'isms, which also happens to be the opposite of butterflies. But still. Some fun ideas imo, which I decided to share because why not?

 

[Contrary]

I've messed around with a surviving al-Andalus before. The timeline I did this in somewhat resembled OTL in some ways, to the point where on this board it would probably be seen as butterfly murder, but it's still fun to try to place al-Andalus in a familiar version of the planet. I had several spitball ideas for what al-Andalus could do, with varying levels of plausibility and interesting from my end and in no particular order:

• A large minority of Protestant refugees from Spain/Portugal and Italy, as well as Cathars and Huguenots, make the country their new home. The caliph notices the pushback and oppression by the Catholic powers, goes "oh, cool" and invites all of them to settle in his country, where they contribute to the arts and economy;
• An Andalusi colonial empire, which includes Mexico (vassalized/Islamized Aztec and Purépecha Empires), Central America, Nigeria, Arakan (or even the whole of Myanmar/Burma), the Maldives, Mindanao, maybe even Madagascar and the Ryukyu Islands... The empire prefers protectorates and vassalizations over direct annexations and settler colonies, so the native cultures are usually left intact after the locals are converted to Islam (if they weren't already Muslims);
• Mozarabic as the primary national language, Andalusi Arabic as the language of liturgy and the elite, and Ladino as the language of the local Jewry;
• Conversion from Sunni Islam to Ibadi Islam, and spreading the Ibadi faith around their colonial empire
• A sphere of influence in North Africa (if not outright annexation of the coastline). Assuming a Mozarabic dynasty shows up, they could even promote and revitalize African Romance in Tunisia and Algeria should they get that far;
• Córdoba as Europe's second-largest city and second cultural capital, after Constantinople (assuming the Byzzies are still trucking along, which is far from impossible with a PoD this early)
• The Caliph of Andalusia could, at least nominally, be the head of the Muslim world (at least the Sunni/Ibadi one) after the Ottoman Caliphate goes down. Whether he would be recognized as such is a different story, especially if he doesn't descend from the Quraysh (it didn't stop the Ottomans, but it cost them recognition from many Sunni groups)
• Perhaps they could even prop up the Emirate of Sicily?

Again, a lot of this comprises a sizeable number of OTL'isms, which also happens to be the opposite of butterflies. But still. Some fun ideas imo, which I decided to share because why not?

Interesting. What was your TL called?

 

[jacob ningen]

I would start with the destruction of every Christian kingdom south of the Pyrenees. It would a lot harder for the Christians to launch a Reconquista if they have only a Mediterranean coastal strip plus some mountain passes from which to launch it.

That means subduing Asturias. Not easy and the Moslems on OTL failed. However without the kingdom it is going to be harder for the Christians to push into Spain and there is no native Christian population constantly snipping at Islamic Spain.

Would inverting the Taifas work here? I.e. the Christian kingdoms ask Cordoba for aid in disputes between each other and Cordoba swallowing them up one at a time.

 

[Planet of Hats]

Would inverting the Taifas work here? I.e. the Christian kingdoms ask Cordoba for aid in disputes between each other and Cordoba swallowing them up one at a time.

They did do that - quite a lot. Sanchuelo is Sanchuelo because of dealmaking like that - his mom was the daughter of the King of Pamplona and was handed off to Almanzor in marriage as part of various alliances between al-Andalus and the northern kingdoms.

The biggest problem with devouring the north is the same problem that allowed Ethiopia to hold out forever: Once you get north of the Duero valley, Cantabria is mountainous and you're invading uphill. Securing the area during the early conquest can be done, and indeed it briefly was, but the Berber Revolt was critical for Christian fortunes here: All the garrisons north of the Duero threw in with the revolt and went south, leaving Asturias tons of breathing room and turning the Duero valley into a giant and virtually depopulated buffer zone. The revolt was obviously put down, but between it and the overthrow of the Umayyads, it ensured that the last help al-Andalus would get from the Muslim core would be the arrival of the Syrian junds in the 740s.

There's opportunity, I think, to play a "keep them divided" game in the north for a longer period. Asturias breaking up in the 900s leaves you with more polities to manipulate against each other. Big aversion points here would be a) a more cautious Almanzor declining to attack Santiago de Compostela when the chance arose, and b) averting Sancho III of Pamplona/Navarre creating a basis for a reunified and modernizing north. Sancho is low-key really important here: Aside from reintroducing political and strategic unity in the Christian kingdoms, he did a lot to build connections with the rest of Europe and introduce French-originated modernizing features like the Cluniac reforms into Iberian state and cultural structures. At the time he came in, the northern kingdoms were fractured backwaters, and al-Andalus was improving its footing. Sancho III's brief period of union in the north effectively reset the gameboard and established a new normal that would persist and define the run-up to the Iberian kingdoms gaining ascendancy.

As for the attack on Santiago, Almanzor trashed much of the city, and while he left the relics of Saint James behind, his army took a lot of sacred plunder and kidnapped a lot of women. It's probably the most polarizing of the general uptick in Andalusian aggression in this time, with aggression in Barcelona notable for dragging Hugh Capet into the fray. On his way down south is when Hugh fast-talked the Archbishop of Reims into crowning Robert II co-king. What won the extremely reticent archbishop over was Hugh claiming France needed stability in case he died while on campaign against the Moors. In this POD, averting Santiago is probably the consequence of a less victory-hungry Almanzor who eases off the northern kingdoms a little and reduces the pressures towards a) unifying under a Sancho figure or b) running to France in a fashion that causes the French kings to both get involved and establish a stabilizing dynasty at Andalusian expense. There'll always be seasonal campaigning - waging the jihad was an important symbolic gesture for Andalusian leaders - but leadership needs to be either wise enough or average enough to know when to go for the throat and when to just clobber a few armies and demand tribute.