Question about Britain, Germany, Portugal, Angola and Mozambique as seen from 1912

[pipisme]

As seen by John William Graham in his book Evolution and Empire, published in London. The preface is dated April 1912. In the chapter An Understanding with Germany he wrote:

We [Britain and Germany] have not a single conflicting interest in the domain of high politics. It is such things as the Bagdad Railway, railways in China, mining concessions in Morocco, the right to buy or otherwise take badly owned or weakly owned lands in Africa, to acquire (say) Mozambique or Angola, if Portugal can be bought or pushed out.

With a POD of after April 1912 what are plausible scenarios in which Britain or Germany could buy or push out Portugal from Angola or Mozambique?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Not sure, the Portuguese were at this point already quite paranoid about the Great Powers trying to steal their Empire.

 

[Lord Brisbane]

Wasn't Britain closer diplomatically to Portugal than Germany was at the time? Would there really be much benefit to Britain by carving up the Portugese Empire?

 

[philjd]

The Portugese went bankrupt at this time and as such were rescued financially by Britain, one of the options available was to mortgage or take over their african colonies, that would be an easy route to what you are looking for?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Wasn't Britain closer diplomatically to Portugal than Germany was at the time? Would there really be much benefit to Britain by carving up the Portugese Empire?

Britain and Portugal were allies.

 

[Don Lardo]

I posted the cite here before but I don't have the book at hand so I'm relying on memory.

Britain and Germany made secret agreements twice on how to carve up the Portuguese Empire once Portugal essentially defaulted on it's international obligations: i.e. loans. The first agreement was in 1898 and the second in 1913.

Let me repeat the date of that second agreement for those of you hung up on the ancient alliance between Britain and Portugal: 1913.

In both agreements, Britain and Germany purposely excluded the other powers from the discussion. In the 1913 talks, Britain took great care to ensure that France wasn't a part of the talks.

The second agreement in 1913 was also more "active" than the original 1898 understanding. The planned trigger for Portugal being divested of her empire was to be her inability to pay off her loans, so in 1913 Britain and Germany agreed they should make loans to Portugal they knew she couldn't service in order to force a default sooner.

Delay or prevent WW1 in some manner and Portugal will lose most of her empire by 1915 or 1916.

 

[Da Pwnzlord]

I posted the cite here before but I don't have the book at hand so I'm relying on memory.

Britain and Germany made secret agreements twice on how to carve up the Portuguese Empire once Portugal essentially defaulted on it's international obligations: i.e. loans. The first agreement was in 1898 and the second in 1913.

Let me repeat the date of that second agreement for those of you hung up on the ancient alliance between Britain and Portugal: 1913.

In both agreements, Britain and Germany purposely excluded the other powers from the discussion. In the 1913 talks, Britain took great care to ensure that France wasn't a part of the talks.

The second agreement in 1913 was also more "active" than the original 1898 understanding. The planned trigger for Portugal being divested of her empire was to be her inability to pay off her loans, so in 1913 Britain and Germany agreed they should make loans to Portugal they knew she couldn't service in order to force a default sooner.

Delay or prevent WW1 in some manner and Portugal will lose most of her empire by 1915 or 1916.

How did Portugal hang onto its colonies OTL then? Why would WWI increase Portugal's ability to pay off its loans?

 

[Don Lardo]

How did Portugal hang onto its colonies OTL then? Why would WWI increase Portugal's ability to pay off its loans?

More like certain loans were forgiven in return for other considerations.

While it's not the book I cited from in an earlier thread, Google Books was able top produce this link on the subject. The topic is first addressed on page 177 with the 1898 agreement.

The book in the link is: Prince Lichnowsky, Ambassador of Peace: A Study of Prewar Diplomacy 1912-1914 by Edward F. Willis. The book I cited in the earlier thread was a multi-volume work on British foreign diplomacy.

 

[philjd]

Let me repeat the date of that second agreement for those of you hung up on the ancient alliance between Britain and Portugal: 1913.

Ahh, whatever happened to the 1386 Treaty of Windsor.. how time flies.. must be having fun

edit - typo

 

[gigalocus]

Let me repeat the date of that second agreement for those of you hung up on the ancient alliance between Britain and Portugal: 1913.

Sure, it may be from the 14th century, but its still in affect.

I mean, Portugal still sided with Britain in WWI, interning German ships because Britain asked.

During WWII the allies built a naval base on the Azores.

And in 1961 the Portugese tried (Unsuccessfully) to call upon their alliance with the UK.

And in 1982 Portugal offered the naval facillities on the Azores to Britain.

Old. but still in affect now, let alone 1913.

 

[Wendell]

Sure, it may be from the 14th century, but its still in affect.

I mean, Portugal still sided with Britain in WWI, interning German ships because Britain asked.

During WWII the allies built a naval base on the Azores.

And in 1961 the Portugese tried (Unsuccessfully) to call upon their alliance with the UK.

And in 1982 Portugal offered the naval facillities on the Azores to Britain.

Old. but still in affect now, let alone 1913.

The alliance is not being terminated with what this thread proposes, just manipulated.

 

[Gonzaga]

Sure, it may be from the 14th century, but its still in affect.

I mean, Portugal still sided with Britain in WWI, interning German ships because Britain asked.

During WWII the allies built a naval base on the Azores.

And in 1961 the Portugese tried (Unsuccessfully) to call upon their alliance with the UK.

And in 1982 Portugal offered the naval facillities on the Azores to Britain.

Old. but still in affect now, let alone 1913.

The problem is that such alliance was only remembered by the British when it was interesting for them. Most of times Portugal was treated as Britain's lapdog. The Portuguese too only recalled the alliance when they wanted too. There were occasion when Portugal wanted to push anti-British policies, and their failure to do so was even unpopular (the Pink Map Crisis, for example).

However, I wonder how much it would take for the Portuguese government accept to hand over their colonies to the UK and Germany. Not only they were extremely paranoid about that, but it was exactly the monarchy's failure to ensure to Portugal the territories of the Pink Map that gave a boost to Republicanism among the Portuguese middle classes and the intelectuals. If the early Republic accepts that it would cause civil unrest. The Portuguese leaders would try hard to have the support of other Great Powers against it. What would the French do in this case?

 

[Don Lardo]

Sure, it may be from the 14th century, but its still in affect.

Read the link I provided and learn about how the real world works.

Britain twice came to a secret agreement with Wilhelmine Germany about how best to divide the Portuguese Empire between them using Portugal's growing inability to service her debts as an excuse. Britain and Germany also took great pains to not only exclude the other powers from the agreements but to also to hide the agreements from the other powers.

Not only were Britain an Germany going to divide the Portuguese Empire between themselves after Portugal defaulted, they took active steps to ensure Portugal would default. In 1898, they agreed to block any loans to Portugal from any of the other powers. In 1913, they agreed to provide Portugal with loans that they knew Portugal could not service.

That Britain and Germany in 1913, a time in which they both had identified each other as opponents in any future for several years, would actively collude to strip Portugal of her empire speaks volumes.

 

[Jape]

The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance reminds me (too much for comfort) of the Special Relationship.


You've got the older, poor former Great Power, clinging on to disparate islands around the globe, in seemingly noble alliance with the hegemon of the age, a global megastate that none can hope to touch.

And reading on Portuguese 19th century history all I see is Britain bullying Lisbon when ever it feels, threatening to leave it in the dirt, and then scuppering any plans Portuguese leaders come up with to help their nation to make minor financial gains.

 

[gigalocus]

The problem is that such alliance was only remembered by the British when it was interesting for them. Most of times Portugal was treated as Britain's lapdog. The Portuguese too only recalled the alliance when they wanted too.

Thats the case with every alliance no?

Read the link I provided and learn about how the real world works.

*Sigh* I never disagreed with any of your points. I'm just saying well after 1913 both Britain and Portugal thought the alliance was still in existance and used it on a number of occasions after 1386, so you can't wipe it off just because its some 600 years later.

Besides, just because there is an alliance doesn't mean the members can't disagree on a million matters, because, for example, despite the 1890 British ultimatum both Portugal and Britain still called on their old allies in 1916, 1943, 1961 and 1982, which in 'the real world', are after 1913.

 

[Don Lardo]

I'm just saying well after 1913 both Britain and Portugal thought the alliance was still in existance and used it on a number of occasions after 1386, so you can't wipe it off just because its some 600 years later.

And I'm saying that alliance doesn't amount to shit. It's a bit of trivia, a Guinness record, an occasional convenience, and nothing more.

Besides, just because there is an alliance doesn't mean the members can't disagree on a million matters, because, for example, despite the 1890 British ultimatum both Portugal and Britain still called on their old allies in 1916, 1943, 1961 and 1982, which in 'the real world', are after 1913.

We're not talking about a disagreement here. We're talking about Britain colluding with Germany over a period of at least 15 years to actively screw Portugal out of her empire. During that period of Germany supplanted France and Russia to become the primary potential opponent of Britain in any future war and yet Britain was still actively working with Germany to gobble up the Portuguese Empire.

Britain was working with another power it fully expected to fight a war against in a land grab aimed secretly and directly at Portugal. That should tell anyone how "important" that alliance is.

 

[Wendell]

Did any of these agreements deal with Portuguese colonies in Asia or in Western Africa?

 

[maverick]

Did any of these agreements deal with Portuguese colonies in Asia or in Western Africa?

Something tells me that the British would not have allowed Macao to be German.

Not sure about Portuguese Guinea.

 

[Don Lardo]

Did any of these agreements deal with Portuguese colonies in Asia or in Western Africa?

Western Africa was definitely part of both Anglo-German agreements. Portuguese possessions weren't going to change hands whole however. Each was going to be carved up a little.

As for Asia, I'm going on memory now, but Timor was in the mix. I can't remember how Goa, Macao, and the rest were in play however.

Just to recap, Portugal was expected by everyone to default and have to hold a "yard sale" of her colonial possessions to meet her debts. In 1898 Britain and Germany agreed to prevent any other power from extending loans to Portugal in order to help the default occur sooner. In 1913, Britain and Germany agreed to extend Portugal loans they knew it could not service in order ensure that the default did occur. There were also minor changes in who got what between the 1898 and 1913 agreements.

 

[Wendell]

Something tells me that the British would not have allowed Macao to be German.

stands to reason, but I suspect that the British would care more about Portuguese India.

Not sure about Portuguese Guinea.

I doubt the French will be happy one way or the other for different reasons. Nonetheless, I would suspect either it or Cabo Verde to go to Germany and naval facilities developed as a result.

Western Africa was definitely part of both Anglo-German agreements. Portuguese possessions weren't going to change hands whole however. Each was going to be carved up a little.

Stands to reason, but I wonder if this is how it would go in practice. For example, Portuguese Guinea and Cape Verde go totally to Germany in exchange for total British control of Portuguese India.

As for Asia, I'm going on memory now, but Timor was in the mix. I can't remember how Goa, Macao, and the rest were in play however.

I could see East Timor going German. Macao probably will go British, I suppose. Of course though, Timor might be the one colony that could literally be split two ways.

Just to recap, Portugal was expected by everyone to default and have to hold a "yard sale" of her colonial possessions to meet her debts. In 1898 Britain and Germany agreed to prevent any other power from extending loans to Portugal in order to help the default occur sooner. In 1913, Britain and Germany agreed to extend Portugal loans they knew it could not service in order ensure that the default did occur. There were also minor changes in who got what between the 1898 and 1913 agreements.

Indeed.