Q: Would the CP have considered an eventual attempt of invasion of the UK if France would have quickly fallen in 1914?
- Thread starter Mario
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TheSwedishHistorian
Banned
The central powers would just sue for peace. Try to get a peace treaty with France to get them out of the war as they still had Russia and Serbia to deal with.
Probably take some small border areas and try to get Benelux into a customs union (germans mitteleuropa plan) and annex some small border regions. Perhaps they would try the same for France but that is far from certain
Probably take some small border areas and try to get Benelux into a customs union (germans mitteleuropa plan) and annex some small border regions. Perhaps they would try the same for France but that is far from certain
I fully agree that the absence of a POD does not allow greater conclusions to be drawn. For example, the BEF in 1914 had at least 10 Irish battalions, so there is a possibility that in addition to the Finnish Jägers, there will be Irish Jägers at some point.
Garrison
Donor
You have to be very careful when talking about Irish battalions. There's a big different between the ones from Ulster and the ones from other parts of Ireland. Also don't forget the Home Rule Bil had been planned before WWI, there's no real likelihood of the Irish troops in general siding with the Germans.
It's really easy to devise this scenario: the British try to force the Baltic and get torn apart by mines and shore guns, then a disorganized Grand Fleet meets the Kriegsmarine and suffers defeat in detail.
Convincing the British that this is a good idea, on the other hand...
The German fleet is too small to fight the Royal Navy for naval supremacy. But, they didn't want to invade Britain anyway and Tirpitz thought it wasn't really possible and this was more or less the German stance on the matter.
If France has sued for peace, Britain is much less of an immediate threat to Germany, who will be focusing on trying to knock Russia out.
Germany however would probably start trying to raid and shell the British coastline and play cat and mouse with the Royal Navy.
If France has sued for peace, Britain is much less of an immediate threat to Germany, who will be focusing on trying to knock Russia out.
Germany however would probably start trying to raid and shell the British coastline and play cat and mouse with the Royal Navy.
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Well, Home Rule is the thing that would make Ireland awkward, the way I see it. It got suspended at the start of the war, but with the defeat of the Entente on the continent, if Britain kept fighting, you would have a situation in which Home Rule is suspended indefinitely for the sake of a war that will seem unwinnable, and which the government could do very little to continue prosecuting. Combine that with the necessary coalition with the Conservatives, including Bonar Law, and I worry that some Irish would come to see the continued hostilities as a pretext to do away with Home Rule by means of a permanent state of emergency. If nothing else, it would provide a really strong impetus for the Irish to agitate for a ceasefire in order to actually get the thing they were promised before the war.
Eventually, yes. Not the CP, but Germany. A quick, decisive victory over France and Russia would inflame German military arrogance considerably. Britain's intervention on behalf of the Allies had mobs outside the British embassy in Berlin chanting "race treason!"
And Britain will be hostile going forward. There was already deep suspicion of Germany; e.g. The Riddle of the Sands. After the war - the bitterness of defeat, and too many stories from Belgian refugees. Britain will obstruct Germany every way it can, and Germany will regard Britain as the only remaining obstacle to its "rightful" position.
Would they do it? Probably not, but consider it, yes.
And Britain will be hostile going forward. There was already deep suspicion of Germany; e.g. The Riddle of the Sands. After the war - the bitterness of defeat, and too many stories from Belgian refugees. Britain will obstruct Germany every way it can, and Germany will regard Britain as the only remaining obstacle to its "rightful" position.
Would they do it? Probably not, but consider it, yes.
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There is the little matter of the Royal Navy in World War I air power was not sufficiently developed to act as a deterrent to Capital ships
In invasion of Ireland would also be out of the question because of the route German ships would have to take to reach Ireland and the Royal Navy not wanting them to make that Journey
What would be more likely would be the basing of U-boats in France like happened in World War II in an attempt to starve Britain out
Submarines running guns to the IRA would be an easy and inexpensive way to tie down British resources. They wouldn't even have to use German guns because they would have captured a lot of French weaponry
In invasion of Ireland would also be out of the question because of the route German ships would have to take to reach Ireland and the Royal Navy not wanting them to make that Journey
What would be more likely would be the basing of U-boats in France like happened in World War II in an attempt to starve Britain out
Submarines running guns to the IRA would be an easy and inexpensive way to tie down British resources. They wouldn't even have to use German guns because they would have captured a lot of French weaponry
Thing was in 1914 the Irish Problem wasn't the Catholic/Fenian/IRA as home rule was a few strokes of pen of coming through but the Protestant/Ulster /Unionists who were against home rule. The Unionists had the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) which had been organised by former British army office and had purchased 25,000 rifles & ammunition. In late March 1914 officers stationed at the main British army base in Ireland Curragh Kildare had let it known they wouldn't lead forces against the UVF. The ball was kicked down road, it was called by some a mutiny but nobody was charged and then the great war came along and home rule was shelved
Now it's possible if the events in Ireland either blow up entirely or didn't come to a head until later in 1914, Britain would be delayed in sending forces to mainland Europe so German forces can repeat the Franco/Prussian war and take Paris leading to the fall of France.
At this point it would depend on if either side wants to continue, Britain with its naval strength could blockage resources like rubber & oil from Germany and supply Russian via Archangel, up through the Stans from India or the long way from Vladivostok by rail. In all likely hood they would acquisition the two dread-naughts build for Ottomans to help in the blockade.
Now it's possible if the events in Ireland either blow up entirely or didn't come to a head until later in 1914, Britain would be delayed in sending forces to mainland Europe so German forces can repeat the Franco/Prussian war and take Paris leading to the fall of France.
At this point it would depend on if either side wants to continue, Britain with its naval strength could blockage resources like rubber & oil from Germany and supply Russian via Archangel, up through the Stans from India or the long way from Vladivostok by rail. In all likely hood they would acquisition the two dread-naughts build for Ottomans to help in the blockade.
Riain
Banned
I'd say the key word is 'eventual'.
If France is defeated in 1914/15 and Russia 1915/16 Germany will be a continental hegemon with no alliance to counter her, a bunch of new colonies and a more global outlook. I'd say soon after the war Germany would return to a long term goal of expanding the Navy and looking further afield for rivals, which puts Britain firmly in her sights. However Germany will have to build the specific forces required to do this job and that will take so long that it might well be overtaken by global events, perhaps Germany and Britain will become allies or something before the invasion fleet is built and used.
If France is defeated in 1914/15 and Russia 1915/16 Germany will be a continental hegemon with no alliance to counter her, a bunch of new colonies and a more global outlook. I'd say soon after the war Germany would return to a long term goal of expanding the Navy and looking further afield for rivals, which puts Britain firmly in her sights. However Germany will have to build the specific forces required to do this job and that will take so long that it might well be overtaken by global events, perhaps Germany and Britain will become allies or something before the invasion fleet is built and used.
If France is knocked out in 1914, then it's a French defeat and they pay the price in the peace settlement. Britain might hand over a few minor colonies such as New Guinea but comes out of the misadventure mostly unscathed. Unlike WWII it's not a fight for national survival for either Britain or Germany so there's no point in continuing the bloodshed.
Well like I said, the shelving becomes dangerous in a situation where the war is being continued despite no hope of success. In that case, the problem is no longer the Unionists or the IRA, but the Irish mainstream that supported Home Rule and for whom the continuation of a pointless and hopeless war is the only thing standing between them and their desires.
In the first Great War? Absolutely not. There is no need to do so, Germany is not significantly threatened by the British in the immediate term and would dispatch Russia within 6 months of the French exit, which would mean the British would be out of the war if they weren’t already. As has been noted, 20-30 years from then if Britain is still an adversary, it becomes more possible
I don’t even think they’d do that. Britain is an island with the worlds largest Navy. They have a harder time effecting things on the continent than France, Germany and Russia, but their defense is really strong.
Not really the supply lines are simply too long and frankly you are going to need several dividions of german troopd not a few hundred rifles smuggled in in a submarine which is about all you will get past the RN
Lexijag
Banned
It would have ended in a truce. However an interesting thing would be to have Italy, ah, and French bb all be utilized with Germany. That would give cp + captured French bb a total of 25 vs GB 22. Now granted you have Germany 15 in the north sea and the rest in the Mediterranean. Plus you need crews for the captured French ships. But interesting. Cp plus france have 16 under construction vs 13 GB.
1 france turns over ships to cp
2 Italy comes in on cp side
3 take Gibraltar. Cut supplies in Mediterranean
4 train crews for French bb
5 German fleet moved to brest. ( hard but possible )
6 Mediterranean fleet sails to Gibraltar
7 link up fleets.
8 battle royal.
I think a truce is much more likely but it would be a cool tl.
1 france turns over ships to cp
2 Italy comes in on cp side
3 take Gibraltar. Cut supplies in Mediterranean
4 train crews for French bb
5 German fleet moved to brest. ( hard but possible )
6 Mediterranean fleet sails to Gibraltar
7 link up fleets.
8 battle royal.
I think a truce is much more likely but it would be a cool tl.
Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
Not sure where you get the RN figure of 22 from, but if you start in 1914 and include the French BBs under construction (16! - really?) then you should also add all of the RN ships completed or planned during the war.
Alternatively, we know the French postponed then cancelled the Normandies (with exception of Bearn as CV) as the factory building the turrets was occupied by the Germans, and they had other higher priorities for use of resources, hence the Lyon-class being cancelled in 1914. The first French dreadnoughts were pretty awful, roughly on the par with the Nassau-class in HSF.
Take Gibraltar? As the British proved, this wasn't quite the age for amphibious assault, and Spain really wasn't interested in joining either side.