Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline
- Thread starter Earl Marshal
- Start date
Great update as always Earl Marshal. I’m not an economics guy so I don’t have much to add, but that doesn’t mean I didn’t find it fascinating. Seeing how much good that the treaty did for the economy in detail is great.
I do wonder if with all of the poor and homeless that are flooding the country, if Greece might not start investing in early level social programs about now. Dickens was very popular in England right now and it’s not to much of a stretch to assume some amount of cultural diffusion with the large amount of English in and out of the ports. It’s no stretch to think his writing could definitely strike a cord with some of the more liberal elite as they see the destitute urban poor in the cities everyday. Obviously nothing extreme but workhouse could be a good way to keep up all the nice new roads they’ve built among other things.
I do wonder if with all of the poor and homeless that are flooding the country, if Greece might not start investing in early level social programs about now. Dickens was very popular in England right now and it’s not to much of a stretch to assume some amount of cultural diffusion with the large amount of English in and out of the ports. It’s no stretch to think his writing could definitely strike a cord with some of the more liberal elite as they see the destitute urban poor in the cities everyday. Obviously nothing extreme but workhouse could be a good way to keep up all the nice new roads they’ve built among other things.
Hmm would we see more/earlier translations of English literature to Greek?
@Earl Marshal you just gave my best birthday present today...thank you so much❤️
With the railroad from larissa to demetrias Thessaly will have an explosion of economic growth and maybe by the mid1870s it would be possible to build a railroad from athens to larissa which be a huge strategic advantage when the next war starts
Also with the growth of cities it would make sense to build some horse drawn trams for public transport in the near future
Very interesting economic update, I can see you really took note of the discussions which happened in thread. I remember us speaking about that cycle of British coin from Greek hands to Russian back to greek when they sold their smuggled goods.
You did a good job bringing up a topic that we often did not, how localized those gains are. While we in chat (similar to the magnates of Greece) were giddy over the huge revenues won from the war, small landowners saw very little of it.
Perhaps this could lead to future social or political movements, as the 'coastal elite' grew in wealth tremendously, and will probably dominate the country in the future to a greater extent than they did before. As industrial/shipping growth seems likely to outpace agricultural growth, outside the largest and most productive latifundia, which again belong to an elite few who live in the coastal cities. Further most of the greek ruling class would belong to these two classes, and would see great prosperity all around them, and not consider the stagnation of the interior peoples.
I imagine this could lead to another great movement in greece about improving the lot of the peasants, with fresh new politicians coming in this way and clashing with an older elite, which is made up of the grandkids of independence heroes and the new business owners.
Another consequence I see, also mentioned in this update, is that greece is going to be a relatively urban country as people flood into the cities due to the overpopulation of the countryside. At this point, when the next war happens becomes critical, as cities which had an extra decade of growth and economic expansion in greece could become more attractive than newly conquered ottoman lands, in a way that didn't happen OTL.
Basically I'm saying that the later the lands of Macedonia in particular are added the worse off they will be compared to the rest of greece. The biggest worry would be if over the 1860s and 1870s some city in Larissa develops to the point that Thessaloniki would have a credible rival by the time it is added back to greece, reducing its importance.
About the grain production numbers I don't really have much to add besides the fact that I'd compare output rates per square kilometer as was being analyzed earlier to other nations in the Mediterranean and see if greece is grossly out of line. If however their productivity is like Spain or Italy that is believable to me.
You did a good job bringing up a topic that we often did not, how localized those gains are. While we in chat (similar to the magnates of Greece) were giddy over the huge revenues won from the war, small landowners saw very little of it.
Perhaps this could lead to future social or political movements, as the 'coastal elite' grew in wealth tremendously, and will probably dominate the country in the future to a greater extent than they did before. As industrial/shipping growth seems likely to outpace agricultural growth, outside the largest and most productive latifundia, which again belong to an elite few who live in the coastal cities. Further most of the greek ruling class would belong to these two classes, and would see great prosperity all around them, and not consider the stagnation of the interior peoples.
I imagine this could lead to another great movement in greece about improving the lot of the peasants, with fresh new politicians coming in this way and clashing with an older elite, which is made up of the grandkids of independence heroes and the new business owners.
Another consequence I see, also mentioned in this update, is that greece is going to be a relatively urban country as people flood into the cities due to the overpopulation of the countryside. At this point, when the next war happens becomes critical, as cities which had an extra decade of growth and economic expansion in greece could become more attractive than newly conquered ottoman lands, in a way that didn't happen OTL.
Basically I'm saying that the later the lands of Macedonia in particular are added the worse off they will be compared to the rest of greece. The biggest worry would be if over the 1860s and 1870s some city in Larissa develops to the point that Thessaloniki would have a credible rival by the time it is added back to greece, reducing its importance.
About the grain production numbers I don't really have much to add besides the fact that I'd compare output rates per square kilometer as was being analyzed earlier to other nations in the Mediterranean and see if greece is grossly out of line. If however their productivity is like Spain or Italy that is believable to me.
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Even by some miracle some city in Thessaly outgrows Thessaloniki in population Thessaloniki would never lose her importance due to the fact it is the gateway to the balkans thru her port
Thessaloniki, once taken, is going to be the premiere Northern Port for Greece until the Queen of Cities herself is in Greek hands. I think once taken it’s just to advantageously positioned to overtake Volus and Larissa even if they have huge populations and high development. What we might see however is one of those cities becoming an industrial hub. Unlike trade, moving industry isn’t as easy. So if it’s already entrenching before Thessaloniki is taken it might not move.
Well it may not move..but creating new industries that another thing
Thank you all very much! Hopefully what I have coming up next is equally exciting!
Also belated Happy Birthday @emperor joe! Coincidentally, my birthday is this week too!
It will take some time to organize and get funding for, and then a long time to actually finish building it, but a railroad from Larissa to Athens will definitely be a major boon for Greece when completed.
That is certainly a possibility, although I haven't done much research into this development yet so I'm not really sure how it would progress.
Thank you very much! I thought it was important to emphasize that while Greece as a whole is doing better than OTL, there are many Greeks who are still struggling to keep a roof over their heads and food in their bellies. I considered writing a few more paragraphs on the political ramifications of this growing economic disparity, but decided to add them to an upcoming Greek politics update instead. Needless to say, there will be several different groups all along the political spectrum that benefit from this economic inequality.
Regarding the region of Macedonia, it will definitely get a lot of attention from the Greek government as it is home to Thessaloniki, the Co-Reigning City. Thessaloniki alone is worth investing in as it is well positioned to control all commerce and trade in the Northern Aegean. Moreover, Macedonia as a whole has very good farmland in the Styrmon valley and Central Macedonia plain, as well as several deposits of coal and precious metals like gold and silver. Finally, its home to the Mount Athos Monasteries which are incredibly important to the Orthodox Church and well worth investment from both a cultural and tourism perspective.
As of now, the Greek Government hasn't put much emphasis on social programs beyond raising funding for the building of new schools and clinics around the country. There are a few charitable initiatives, but these are predominantly private in nature or organized by the Church. That being said, I do believe we are around that time period when social programs did come to the fore.
As for Dickens, I'm sure some of his works will make their way to Greece in short order owing to the stronger relations between the UK and Greece ITTL.
I will admit that I was probably overly ambitious with the numbers I posted in the last chapter, but I think they're certainly possible. According to my sources, Greece was able to reach a total production total of about 640 million kilograms or ~640,000 tons of cereals in 1906 which was done with a territory of roughly 63,000 km2. While there were some technological advances and land reforms in the intervening 50 years, I believe that TTL's 1860 Greece matches up pretty evenly with OTL 1900 Greece at least in terms of agricultural potential as it has the added regions of Crete, the Eastern Aegean Islands, and Northern Epirus giving it an area of roughly 90,000 km2. Moreover, TTL's Greece has a comparable population with OTL 1900 Greece at around 2.2 million people, but in TTL Greece's population is spread out over a wider area.
Now where I'll probably get into more trouble is with the 2.1 Billion kilogram figure which I'll admit is a little on the high side. However, when we convert it to tons then its only about 2.1 million metric tons of cereals. I should also clarify that while I said that most of this increase will come from Thessaly, this gain isn't coming from Thessaly alone as the other provinces of Greece would experience moderate growth in the intervening decades as well. Moreover, there are other regions that will become available to Greece before then that should also help Hellas reach that figure by 1900 ITTL.
Lastly, I'll include some historical and modern data points that should help explain my decision. According to the World Bank, Greece produced around 3 million tons of cereal in 2018. However, Greece's maximum cereal production rate was recorded as 6.19 million tons in 1991, while the average since 1960 has been around 4 million tons/year before dropping to around 3 million/year in the past decade, so it is certainly possible for the lands of Greece to produce that much cereal if the circumstances are right. That said, the real question is if it is possible with late 1800's/early 1900's technology for Greece to produce that much cereals with the territory at their disposal.
I tried looking for contemporary data points from Spain, but I couldn't find any relevant information from the early 1900s. Italy fortunately did have an agriculture survey completed in 1905, in which they were able to produce 151,696,571 bushels of wheat (~4.2 million tons) on 18% of their total area or about 12,734,491 acres for an average of 12 bushels per acre (81t/km2). Additionally, they were able to cultivate 96,250,000 bushels (~2.5 million tons) of maize on 7% of their land or roughly 5 million acres of land for a rate of about 19 bushels per acre (123t/km2). Other cereals (rice, barley, rye, oats, and millet) occupied about 4% of Italy's total area or roughly 2.8 million acres of land, however, their production totals were not recorded in this particular survey, however, if we use a similar production tonnage/acre as the wheat and corn then it would add another 1-1.5 million tons of product to our total. Overall, the total cereal production of Italy in 1905 was about 7.5 to 8 million tons on ~20.5 million acres of land for about 96.4t/km2 which matches up with OTL Greece's total as listed by @Lascaris above.
In short, I'll review my notes again and adjust these figures downward if I feel it is necessary.
Edit: So after looking over my notes and sources again, I realize I included beans and lentil production in these cereal figures. Its not much, but it would reduce the 1860 figure from about 620,000 to 600,000 tons and the 1900 number from 2.1 million tons to ~2 million tons. Even still, I think I'll go back and reduce the latter number even further to around 1.7 million tons for 1900 TTL. That way it'll be more consistent with the 1930's figure from OTL that Lascaris provided which I think is more manageable and is more in keeping with contemporary cereal production for the Mediterranean countries.
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Well thank you for your wishes and happy birthday tou you also.
Also in western Macedonia there is a large amount of lingnite which will definitely be beneficial for greece.also other provinces by 1900? Well well you have for certainly my attention for the next war😜
Also in western Macedonia there is a large amount of lingnite which will definitely be beneficial for greece.also other provinces by 1900? Well well you have for certainly my attention for the next war😜
Will we see a successful revolt of Macedonia and Eastern Thrace in the 1870s?
If we’re going to see a successful revolution anywhere I’d personally bet on Cyprus. It’s to easy for the ottomans to just march some troops from the capital to crush any type of revolt by the peasants in Macedonia and Thrace. The Ottoman’s are more than capable of that even being the sick man of Europe.
If Cyprus revolts though it gets interesting. Troops have to be shipped on an old and beaten up navy to the the island. And island that’s populated by a group of people who are famously good at sailing. Throw some cannons onto some merchant ships, gets some patriotic captains from the mainland and you have a chance at preventing an ottoman army from crushing your rebellion by preventing it from landing. Not necessarily a good chance. But more of a chance then you’d have that close to the capital.
Well i wouldn't say that we Cypriots are good at sailing or fighting..but if let's say some maniots and/or Cretan make the short trip to Cyprus that's another thing is
I just think that during that war Greece will attack with the Russians since Britain didn't interfere in this war otl and ittl I'd think Britain will be fine with Greece fighting in the Balkans considering this war will worsen Greco Russian relations since Greece will want a significantly smaller Bulgaria than what the Russians wanted. Cyprus would in all likelihood be released from Ottoman yoke by the Greeks since Greece would have a better navy ittl. I think Greece will participate ittl instead of not being belligerent and they'll be one of the major winners and the ascension of Greece to relevancy in the great power's eyes.
PS: I hope we see King Leopold patronising the Megali since Ionia and Bithynia have a lot of Greeks in them. I'd think they would focus on Western Anatolia before ever trying to get a colony in Africa and I'd think Leopold would understand that.
I am under the impression that the majority of farmers used wooden ploughs and hand reapers until the 1930s and a large minority until the 1950s.
The main problem of the greek agriculture was labor productivity.
In 1910, greek labor productivty was half of Italy and a quarter of Britain. The lack of capital was crippling. Even so, greek agriculture was much more productive than Ottoman Macedonia, itself one of the most developed regions of the Ottoman Empire.
In the 1930s after the land reform and land reclamation projects were over, labor productivity was increasing by 4% per year and land productivity by 0,7%, It is worth mentioning that the icrease in labor productivity we are talking about was not the result of extensive mechanization of production. As I see it, the aforementioned factors (land reform, land reclamation) already exist in the timeline. Therefore, I see no reason why we cannot have an increase in labor and land productivity similar to that of the OTL 1930s.
The game changer in equipment would have been affordable iron ploughs and harrows. Moreover, the "production" of agronomists from the universities in order to provide advice to farmers. For example, organic fertilizers (manure) were utilized but not in the most productive way. Careful seed selection is another field where agronomists would help. These improvements took place in OTL 1910-1930s. There is no reason why they couldn't take place in TTL 1870s.
When it comes to agricultural exports, it would be a huge boon if Greece can produce earlier on olive oil and wine presses. When it comes to the chemical industry, in the early 1890s the Greek Munitions factory started producing copper sulphate (bluestone) and sulphuric acid, but the internal market was not mature enough. Only post 1909 the chemical industry started for good. However, if there are more agronomists around, copper sulphate being a great fungicide and herbicide for grapevines and sulphuric acid a good base for fertilizer production. I think establishing the production of these two items in the 1880s could be very realistic.
Now that you mentioned vines,i vaguely remember that Cyprus was not affected by the phylloxera epidemic that destroyed the European vines due to a strict quarantine.i don't see why this couldn't be applied to the other greek islands like Crete,rhodes etc..this will definitely give the greek economy a small boost.
Well, phylloxera arrived in Crete at the 1970s. In some islands it took also decades to arrive while in Santorini apparently it cannot thrive at all.
As mentioned by Lascaris, if Greece manages to break even in grain production, then it would be huge and lead to much stronger greek economy. If 25% of available hard currency doesn't go to grain imports, then there is much more hard currency to import machinery and raw materials.