On the topic of development in the new territories i think lake/swamp drainage is definitely one of developments thats is immediately needed but with greece having already drained lake copais has gained invaluable experience...with this experience the likes of lake karla should be no problem at all
 
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Of the topic of development the new territories i think lake/swamp drainage is definitely one of developments thats is immediately needed but with greece having already drained lake copais has gains invaluable experience...with this experience the likes of lake karla should be no problem at all
Exactly, the drainage experience is there. Except lake Karla in Thessaly, there was a myriad of small swamps in the greek coastlands. Said coastlands were basically settled after 1830. Increased land reclamation will result in two major butterflies: fewer deaths by malaria and more land available. If you combine the fewer deaths with the very high birth rate (3,5-4%), then you have a significant population increase.

@Earl Marshal , check Socrates Petmezas, my go-to academic for the 19th century greek agriculture. "Academia" has many of his articles available for free.

So, let's list some butterflies so far and comment on the repercussions.

(a) The issue of the National Estates was solved much earlier compared to OTL. This will lead to an earlier better development of the estates. If somebody knows that he actually own a plot of land, then he has the incentive to develop it. Said development is an arduous and slow process that I believe will pay dividends from the 1850s onwards. Terraces need to be raised, tree orchards planted (olive, mulberry, fig trees), warehouses and barns built, even rocks removed from the often poor soil.

(b) What will the 49ers do as an occupation? I doubt the vast majority will want to become small-time farmers. After all, a small-time farmer in Greece owned only a fraction of what a small-time farmer owned in Germany. So, how many will try to squeeze a living out of 4 meagre hectares (or much less)? That leaves out three career paths: i) Public employees (military or civil), ii) Professionals or iii) Manufacturers.

Therefore, I see a lot of them getting involved in turning the greek agricultural products into manufactured goods to add value and export. The most prevalent of those will be wine, brandy, olive oil, soap, silk, leather goods (hello Epirotan pastoralism), cigarettes and in a smaller degree textiles. But how to find the capital to import the machinery needed for such industrial development? See below.

(c) The manner of the annexation of Thessaly will alter the balance of payments and the availability of foreing currency.

As the land has been liberated by the serfs themselves, we won't get to see rich Diaspora Greeks buying the chifliks cheaply from the Ottoman landlords. So, the rich and powerful won't get to lobby the government for extremely high wheat import tariffs. In that way, they were able to be absentee landowners and have a profit even with a small portion of the land cultivated with medieval methods, while they rented most of the land to semi-nomads for pasturage. The new smalltime owners will have a far better incentive to cultivate more of the land. But what does this surge in wheat production mean?

In OTL, grain took up 10-30% of the greek imports. If there is a robust wheat production, then there is much more foreign currency available to import machinery for factories or locomotives and rails.

Also, the annexation if before the American Civil War. The ACW lead to a temporary surge of cotton cultivation in the eastern Mediterranean, as the hungry Lancaster mills wanted more and more of King Cotton. Thessaly is good cotton land. Therefore, for some years the Greek cotton exporting merchants will reap huge profits. After America gets to export cotton again, what will happen to the thessalian cotton? In that case, it seems more profitable for the cotton merchants to become cotton manufacturers as they cannot achieve the previous profit margins and they have a big market in need of cotton textiles nearby (Ottoman Empire). So, we may eventually see Greeks buying ottoman cotton from Macedonia, Smyrna, Cilicia and Aleppo and exporting cotton textiles back to the Empire. Textiles that by the way, were the most valuable ottoman and later turkish import until the 1950s.

(d) We have a homogenous and larger internal market much earlier than in OTL. This undoubtly helps in industrial development, at least in the case of textiles and other light industry goods.

(e) In addition to (c), grain prices crushed from 1870 to the early 1890s (1892 specifically). So, even if Greece doesn't produce all the grain she needs, the rest of the imported grain is cheap, while the prices for currants are rising (until 1893 when they crashed), while the price for light industry goods (soap, cigarettes, textiles) are rather stable.

(d) The more diverse economy will handle the 1893 currant crisis much better.
 
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off topic question but with greece owning eprius before alabian nationlism was huge in alabian what are chance of them grabbing parts or slices of southern alabian?
 
The muslims of Western Thrace have been a mixed lot: Pomaks, Turks and muslim Roma. I agree the easier perhaps group to reach would be the Pomaks, if we take into account the OTL history.

Personally I agree! The problem is that in OTL there was no such distinction of muslim Albanians. All, be they bektashi or sunni were labelled as "Turkalbanians". With the current border, Greece doesn't care to get any more of Albania, with the exception of Korce. The other issue regarding the already included bektashi in Thesprotia is not religious but social: the muslims controlled most of the cultivated land and the many chifliks of the region. It is a social agrarian struggle that religion is secondary to land ownership.


But this is not how the Balkan nation-states were born nor how they identified themselves. The nation-states in the neighborhood are products or revolutions and nationalism.

There is simply very different ethnogenesis compared to the Middle East. Perhaps you need a POD before the 18th century at best, in order to change attitudes. These are fundamental concepts that cannot be handwaved.

Lastly, regarding how plausible is to have an Asiatic Greece, just check @Lascaris extremely well-researched timeline, where the POD is in far later in 1920 and involves a much weaker Greece.

Apologies for contributing in derailing the conversation. This my last post on the topic. My next posts will be in the development of the newly annexed regions.
I agree that the most important thing to discuss at the moment is the newly received territory. So after this I’ll stick to that topic. I will say that I largely agree with your analysis. Currently the image of the “Turkalbanians” is a big issue with my concept of encouraging and gaining Bektashi Albanian support. That said there’s currently a lot of time for that perception to be changed as their are plenty of Bektashi Albanians currently in what Greece will gain in Northern Epirus. Wether it be an active attempt by the government to normalize the concept of them to the Greek people because they recognize the value of taxpayers who dislike the ottomans regardless of their strange Muslim sect or a growing resent for Sunni chifliks the bektashi and orthodox share there are non contrived way to help the groups come together and see each other as one. I’m not saying it’s easy. It would take a shift in Greek perceptions, but one I could definitely see happening in TTL. The Greeks have progressed much further and much faster here, and that could cause them to start looking at thing differently as the siege mentality lessens. They might also start eying southern Albania as a decent target for expansion if they put in the work to make friends with the local populace before Albanian nationalism takes to deep a root. Korçë is an obvious target I think and if the government comes to accept the Albanian Bektashi there’s no reason they couldn’t get greedy and take most of Albania south of lake Ohrid as well. Regardless of any land grab I could see them trying to court the Albanian bektashi in Greece at least.

tldr: I’m not saying it would necessarily be easy to have them court Bektashi Albanians but it is certainly possible with a little work and a change of perception. I think it’s definitely a topic worth discussing.
 
or a growing resent for Sunni chifliks
Regardless of any land grab I could see them trying to court the Albanian bektashi in Greece at least.
The problem is that the chiflik holders in Epirus were mostly bektashi, perhaps almost all of them. So, bektashi were the targets of the recent revolt. Their estates were seized by the christian serfs, the violence of a revolution was directed against them. When one reads about hostility of christian populations against "Turkalbanians" should have in mind that the Albanians in question are specifically bektashi, since they were the neighbors of orthodox christians. I expect the rural bektashi population to have been expelled, at least from the fertile agricultural regions. The greek-speaking bektashi of Ioannina will probably stay though. The refugee bektashis will end up in southern Albania where , after losing their land and homes, I doubt they will view Greeks and greek culture in a positive light.

So, the percception is bad, and the recent revolts won't make it any less, especially from the point of view of the serfs or displaced landowners. I would also like a thriving Bektashi community in Greece, as they have a fascinating culture, but I am not sure it is possible from a mid 19th century pov.
 
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I’m hoping that Greece is willing to accept Muslim Greeks like the Vallahades as Greeks in this timeline and I’d consider that a nice victory.
That uh, I'll be honest, I can't see happening. While Greece has had a lot of luck going here, assuming that they'll do a more modern and enlightened viewpoint towards minorities like that is a bit of a stretch.
 
That uh, I'll be honest, I can't see happening. While Greece has had a lot of luck going here, assuming that they'll do a more modern and enlightened viewpoint towards minorities like that is a bit of a stretch.
Oh make no mistake I’m not expecting enlightenment so much as hoping for practicality. Every Greek, Albanian, and even Turkic Muslim household they keep in Greece because they have no desire to leave is a household of Greeks from Anatolia that can stay in Anatolia or be sent somewhere else where those who demanded to leave no longer are. If they pay their taxes and don’t rabble rouse there’s little impetus to force them out. If they speak Greek and share similar customs all the better.


The problem is that the chiflik holders in Epirus were mostly bektashi, perhaps almost all of them. So, bektashi were the targets of the recent revolt. Their estates were seized by the christian serfs, the violence of a revolution was directed against them. When one reads about hostility of christian populations against "Turkalbanians" should have in mind that the Albanians in question are specifically bektashi, since they were the neighbors of orthodox christians. I expect the rural bektashi population to have been expelled, at least from the fertile agricultural regions. The greek-speaking bektashi of Ioannina will probably stay though. The refugee bektashis will end up in southern Albania where , after losing their land and homes, I doubt they will view Greeks and greek culture in a positive light.

So, the percception is bad, and the recent revolts won't make it any less, especially from the point of view of the serfs or displaced landowners. I would also like a thriving Bektashi community in Greece, as they have a fascinating culture, but I am not sure it is possible from a mid 19th century pov.
I mean are they still in control at this point in time? That’s a legitimate question. The timeline is in 1856 right now, the we’re banned in 1826 Otl. I don’t see why that would have changed and as far as I remember there has been no tanzimat in the Empire at this point, at least not in a cultural manner. It’s been sped up in other ways though. In fact if anything I think I remember the ottomans cracking down particularly hard on the southern Albanians ITTL. So hypothetically the Albanian Bektashis might really really hate the ottomans here and not have much power. I think you’re probably right about the outcome but I don’t want my dream of a thriving bektashi community in Greece die until I see it as impossible.
 
I'll just note that if the Greeks managed to take Constantinople back, the Sophia would last less than a day before being converted back to a church. Less than an hour, more like, just long enough to knock the crescent off the roof and stick a cross up there. I'm seeing some severe underestimation of just how much the Hagia Sophia means to Greek Christians. This wouldn't be like the Dome of the Rock, wherein it's second only to the Kaaba for Muslims. Meanwhile, that church is the Kaaba for Greek Orthodox practitioners. Especially the more nationalistic kind.

This isn't Israel taking over the Dome of the Rock in the middle of the 20th Century, when people can and will go 'yo, stop' and where there's a metric ton of Muslims who already hate your guts enough without trampling on their practices with that Mosque. Even then, you don't have to look far to find Jews who hate hate hate that they aren't allowed to pray there. Greece taking the City back?

Since that would presumably happen well before the middle of the 20th Century, they're not going to waste any time getting their Church back.
 
I'll just note that if the Greeks managed to take Constantinople back, the Sophia would last less than a day before being converted back to a church. Less than an hour, more like, just long enough to knock the crescent off the roof and stick a cross up there. I'm seeing some severe underestimation of just how much the Hagia Sophia means to Greek Christians. This wouldn't be like the Dome of the Rock, wherein it's second only to the Kaaba for Muslims. Meanwhile, that church is the Kaaba for Greek Orthodox practitioners. Especially the more nationalistic kind.

This isn't Israel taking over the Dome of the Rock in the middle of the 20th Century, when people can and will go 'yo, stop' and where there's a metric ton of Muslims who already hate your guts enough without trampling on their practices with that Mosque. Even then, you don't have to look far to find Jews who hate hate hate that they aren't allowed to pray there. Greece taking the City back?

Since that would presumably happen well before the middle of the 20th Century, they're not going to waste any time getting their Church back.
Definetly agree as the hagia sophia has such a big meaning in greek culture
 
I'll just note that if the Greeks managed to take Constantinople back, the Sophia would last less than a day before being converted back to a church. Less than an hour, more like, just long enough to knock the crescent off the roof and stick a cross up there. I'm seeing some severe underestimation of just how much the Hagia Sophia means to Greek Christians. This wouldn't be like the Dome of the Rock, wherein it's second only to the Kaaba for Muslims. Meanwhile, that church is the Kaaba for Greek Orthodox practitioners. Especially the more nationalistic kind.

This isn't Israel taking over the Dome of the Rock in the middle of the 20th Century, when people can and will go 'yo, stop' and where there's a metric ton of Muslims who already hate your guts enough without trampling on their practices with that Mosque. Even then, you don't have to look far to find Jews who hate hate hate that they aren't allowed to pray there. Greece taking the City back?

Since that would presumably happen well before the middle of the 20th Century, they're not going to waste any time getting their Church back.
One thing they cpuld do is just leave everthing like it is and just replace the moon ontop with a cross and putting covers over the muslim iconography
 
So I have an actual question about the land Greece is about to gain that Earl Marshal should hopefully be able to answer. Is Kastellorizo and any of its neighboring isles part of the Dodecanese being handed over? I can see arguments either way as it was usually ruled by whoever controlled Rhodes but it’s also significantly closer to the Turkish mainland so I could easily see the Turks taking exception to that then again the island and its population is tiny so they might not really see it as a threat. So I was wondering if you’d made a decision one way or another about it or if it had kinda flown under your radar since it’s so small?
 
So I have an actual question about the land Greece is about to gain that Earl Marshal should hopefully be able to answer. Is Kastellorizo and any of its neighboring isles part of the Dodecanese being handed over? I can see arguments either way as it was usually ruled by whoever controlled Rhodes but it’s also significantly closer to the Turkish mainland so I could easily see the Turks taking exception to that then again the island and its population is tiny so they might not really see it as a threat. So I was wondering if you’d made a decision one way or another about it or if it had kinda flown under your radar since it’s so small?
I think we had discussed it as part of the Dodecanese that goes to Greece?
 
So I have an actual question about the land Greece is about to gain that Earl Marshal should hopefully be able to answer. Is Kastellorizo and any of its neighboring isles part of the Dodecanese being handed over? I can see arguments either way as it was usually ruled by whoever controlled Rhodes but it’s also significantly closer to the Turkish mainland so I could easily see the Turks taking exception to that then again the island and its population is tiny so they might not really see it as a threat. So I was wondering if you’d made a decision one way or another about it or if it had kinda flown under your radar since it’s so small?
As a part of the Dodecanese Islands, Kastellorizo should be going to Greece per the terms of their agreement with the Ottoman Empire.
 
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I think we had discussed it as part of the Dodecanese that goes to Greece?
Damn did we really? My bad I completely missed that.
As a part of the Dodecanese Islands, Kastellorizo should be going to Greece per the terms of their agreement with the Ottoman Empire. That said, it will likely fall into a gray area like Sazan island given its close proximity to the Anatolian coast and its distance from the rest of Greece.
Gotcha. So the situation is likely to be a bit up in the air for a bit. Cool.
 
It should be out tomorrow.
Well, that was opportune :) Can't wait to read it! We need Flosgon78 to ask more often, it seems!

By the way, any idea of how the Papacy is doing? I know its still early, but it will be interesting to see how the Pope being the President of the Italian Federation will influence the Papacy's response to liberalism and the like (highly doubt that the Church suddenly goes full-on Liberal. But its likely going to be much more willing to engage with liberalism, even if it will likely continue to be hostile to radical leftism and the like.
 
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I would think that Kastellorizo would be more important to the Greeks than Sazan as apparently, about 10,000 people will live on the island around the end of the century. That said, I could just be overestimating how much the Greeks would care. Also, I wanted to tell you that I have really enjoyed this story, and you have inspired me to learn so much more about Greece. Thank you for that Earl.
 
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