President Reagan - in 1968

My biggest problem is trying to figure out what kinda role will the Monetarist economist Milton Friedman have ITTL. He was one of Reagan's economic advisors in OTL and I do believe some of the policy ideas(esp involving the NIT) fit so well with this earlier Reagan. So the questions is really, where could Friedman possibly have the most impact as Treasury Secretary or as Chairman of the Fed(following William McChesney Martin, Jr retirement in 1970? I just think Friedman would be the best person during this era to break down Reagan's Big Picture vison into actual numbers to put a price tag on it.

Make him Treasury.

As for Fed…:

Wiki said:
From 1969 to 1974 Mr. Volcker served as under-secretary of the Treasury for international monetary affairs. He played an important role in the decisions surrounding the U.S. decision to suspend gold convertibility in 1971, which resulted in the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In general he acted as a moderating influence on policy, advocating the pursuit of an international solution to monetary problems. After leaving the U.S. Treasury, he became president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 1975 to 1979, leaving to take up the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve in August 1979.

Make him Fed Chairman early. He did an amazing job OTL, and he'll do an amazing job ITTL… if he can keep the office for a while, and bipartisan popular Fed Chairmen can go a long time.

My Also, any other Ideas for some possible cabinent appointments? Im thinking he would bring Dick Nixon back on board for Secretary of State to make sure he doesn't try to upsurp him in '72? I also could see Reagan bringing Pat as Speechwriter, but does that help Reagan try to convince the American People that another "Surge" of ground troops in Vietnam will secure victory?

I have to think Kissenger would be the guy. He's unpopular with conservatives but could have the backing of both Rockefeller and Nixon… and Reagan certainly needs to give them something.

However there's probably a couple Republicans that would be an option, check the Senate list for centrist to conservative Republicans on Armed Services, Foreign Relations, and related committees.

Take Nixon's cabinet, and then see if you can find any prominent Republican more conservative for any given position—otherwise stick with Nixon's pick.

I also could see Reagan bringing Pat as Speechwriter, but does that help Reagan try to convince the American People that another "Surge" of ground troops in Vietnam will secure victory?

The US doesn't need a surge, at all. General Creighton Abrams was succeeding even as troop levels were brought down from over 600,000 to no more than 30,000 throughout Nixon's first term OTL.

What South Viet Nam needed was advisors, weapons, equipment, money, American airpower, and American political will.
 
The economy where no in as bad shape as it was when he got into power I think.

For both those reasons, I don't think he could reform the economy as much.

We weren't dealing with the double-digit inflation of the 70's yet, but the run-up to the Great Inflation had begun as early as the beginning of the 60's.
 
Make him Treasury.

As for Fed…:



Make him Fed Chairman early. He did an amazing job OTL, and he'll do an amazing job ITTL… if he can keep the office for a while, and bipartisan popular Fed Chairmen can go a long time.



I have to think Kissenger would be the guy. He's unpopular with conservatives but could have the backing of both Rockefeller and Nixon… and Reagan certainly needs to give them something.

However there's probably a couple Republicans that would be an option, check the Senate list for centrist to conservative Republicans on Armed Services, Foreign Relations, and related committees.

Take Nixon's cabinet, and then see if you can find any prominent Republican more conservative for any given position—otherwise stick with Nixon's pick.



The US doesn't need a surge, at all. General Creighton Abrams was succeeding even as troop levels were brought down from over 600,000 to no more than 30,000 throughout Nixon's first term OTL.

What South Viet Nam needed was advisors, weapons, equipment, money, American airpower, and American political will.


Thanks once again E, I should have the next installment up in the next few days.
 
We weren't dealing with the double-digit inflation of the 70's yet, but the run-up to the Great Inflation had begun as early as the beginning of the 60's.

Well see how Reagan handles the Inflation problem, esp if he does the smart thing and choose Volcker to become Fed chairman in 1970. It will be very interesting to see what a Reagan-Volcker-Friedman team could come up with to try to deal with the tough economic times of the 1970's to say the least:D.
 
Phew, Coming up with this installment took me alot longer to research than I had expected...Hopefully I don't dissapoint, and remember that all comments are welcome. The next installment will be over the 1972 Primaries and General Election...So without further adue...:D

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A Rendezvous with Destiny
: The First term of President Ronald Wilson Reagan

On January, 20th 1969, the actor from Illinois, Ronald W. Reagan was sworn in as the 37th President of the United States of America. Surrounded by his wife, First Lady Nancy Reagan, along with Chief Justice Earl Warren, President Johnson, his new Vice President John A. Volpe and finally his Democratic opponent in the fall campaign former Vice President Hubert Humphrey stood with a sense of Optimism and Leadership as he took the oath of office. In his Inaugural Address, meticulously crafted by former Nixon speechwriter, Pat Buchanan, spoke to heal all the nations wounds, in which the best part of the speech was when he alluded back to his “A time for choosing” speech from ’64 when he said…”I have faith that you have the ability and the dignity and the right to make your own decisions and to determine your own destiny…Thank you, may god bless you and god bless America.” His cabinet would reflect this new sense of Independence as it featured a team of rivals not seen since the last President who came from Illinois.

Secretary of State: Richard M. Nixon
Secretary of Treasury: Milton Friedman
Secretary of Defense: Henry Kissinger
Attorney General: James A. Rhodes
Postmaster General: Winton M. Blout
Secretary of Interior: John Tower
Secretary of Labor: Arthur Fletcher
Secretary of Agriculture: Robert Dole
Secretary of Commerce: George W. Romney
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: William Scranton
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Secretary of Transportation: Margaret Chase Smith



The first obstacle that President Reagan faced was on not only to end the War in Vietnam but under what circumstances could the United States “win” the War. In the early months of his term, President Regan went against the suggested strategy of Vietnamization supported by both Sec. Nixon and Sec. Kissinger and sided with General Creighton Abrams and the continuation of his total reconstruction of the war from the Search and Destroy tactics of Westmoreland. However as protesters still clamored for an immediate withdrawal from Southeast Asia, Reagan made a nationally televised address on November 3rd, 1969 calling on the “Silent Majority” of Americans to keep their faith in the abilities of their government and to support his policy of Winning the Vietnam War. He and UN ambassador Barry Goldwater unveiled the policy known as “The Village”, which entailed that current American troop levels would remain the same (around 600,000) in order to regain control of the villages. President Reagan was able through his skills of communication and with a little help from Pat Buchanan’s speeches, to make the majority of Americans understand that eventual victory required civilian support for the South Vietnamese Government and this support required the United States to provide villagers with physical security from the Vietcong. The operation proved largely to be a success and by late 1970 to early 1971, The United States had essentially won the Vietnam War, where basically the Vietcong were defeated on the field, effective control was returned to most of the South Vietnamese population, the South Vietnamese armed forces could continue the war on their own, so long as we provided them with adequate supplies and intelligence, and carried through on our promise to bomb the North if they violated peace agreements.


Reagan would also approve the secret bombing campaign of North Vietnamese positions in Cambodia in March of 1969(Operation Seek) to obliterate what was believed to be the headquarters of the National Front for the Liberation of Vietnam. Although the operation was considered by the Air Force to be largely a success, the gipper received starch criticism for his bombing of Laos and Cambodia. This criticism soon erupted into full blown protests that caused the closure of 536 Universities, Colleges and High Schools, with the biggest being that of the so called Massacre at Kent State. In March of 1970, President Reagan and Attorney General Rhodes, who actually went down to the site of the riot to support his former lieutenant Governor John William Brown and the Ohio National Guard in squashing the rebellion. Although, the riot resulted in deaths of four students, President Reagan never made a public apology, and in private conversation simply said “They got what they deserved”. President Reagan formed the Gates Commission to look into ending the military service draft implemented under the preceding President. The Gates Commission issued its report in February 1970, describing how adequate military strength could be maintained without having conscription. The draft was extended to January 1973, though it was not continued after that. Military pay was increased as an incentive to attract volunteers, and television advertising for the United States Army began.


In other aspects of foreign policy, President Reagan made up for their virtual shut out of in Vietnam by allowing Secretary of State Nixon and Secretary of Defense Kissinger to have a relatively free hand in everything else. Nixon under the banner of the Reagan Administration guided the foreign policy by forging new links with rivals in order to reduce international tensions. In February 1972, President Reagan and Sec. Nixon traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai in China for talks with Chinese leaders Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai. Reagan's trip was the first high-level contact between the United States and the People's Republic of China in more than twenty years, and it ushered in a new era of relations between Washington and Beijing. Several weeks later, in May 1972, Reagan as advised by his Secretary of State, visited Moscow for a summit meeting with Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and other Soviet leaders. Their talks led to the signing of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, the first comprehensive and detailed nuclear weapons limitation pact between the two superpowers.


On the Domestic Front, President Reagan during his first term largely kept true to his rather libertarian dogma. On the economy, Reagan worked hard with his widely renowned and respected Treasury Secretary Milton Friedman on what would be the most efficient way of freeing America from “The Burden of a Welfare Society”. In August, of 1969, the gipper revealed the Total Economic Reconstruction of Family Assistance (or TERFA) and was sent to Congress for the vote. On an incredibly slim margin, the enhanced TERFA called for implementation a single system which accomplished both the funding of government and the social goal of ensuring a minimum level of income. In the presence of the TERFA, inasmuch as that the social goal is reached, it potentially removed the need for minimum wage, food stamps, welfare, social security programs and so on, while requiring a fraction of the administrative effort, and avoiding the pitfalls and perverse incentives which exist in systems with overlapping aid programs. A worker under TERFA always gets the same portion of each marginal dollar earned, so there is always an equal incentive to work. Finally the TERFA System would reduce administrative overhead, since the large bureaucracies responsible for administering taxation and welfare systems could be eliminated. Yet, it was an addition put into the bill which guaranteed an Annual Income to sweeten the deal for liberals in order to kill Social Security and Welfare. The resources saved by eliminating these bureaucracies can then be spent on more productive activities. Upon signing of the Bill, President Reagan stated that “Although this is a crowning achievement, in which that the founders of this great nation would be proud…We know that it is not perfect, and I look forward to in the future working with Congress to making sure that this system remains a success.”


Another crowning achievement of President Reagan on the economy would be appointment of Democrat economist Paul Volcker to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve. With rising Inflation as a result from years of pursing “Obsolete” New Deal and “Cumbersome” Johnsonian Programs as well as a faltering gold standard, Reagan needed someone who was willing to make new bold decisions on the economy. After a long list of candidates, the economist from New Jersey was chosen to replace the retiring Fed Chair William McChesney Martin, Jr., in early 1970 and it was soon realized how bold this new chair would be. Two of Volcker crowning achievements in the first term, One would be his decision to suspend the gold convertibility in 1971, thus resulted the crash of the Breton Woods system. Volcker and Secretary of Treasury Friedman would often have words on some aspects on policy, but he generally advocated an international solution to monetary problems. His other achievement would be staving off an future Inflation problem, which Reagan saw as “Impending crisis which if it would have been allowed to continue unchecked would have slowed the American Economy to a crawl within ten years.” By instead of the widely popular idea of targeting interesting rates, Volcker went against the consensus and focused on limiting the growth of the money supply. This decision would ensure Volcker’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman for many years to come.


On Civil Rights, President Reagan during his first term had more of a mixed message as opposed to his strong achievements in the foreign policy and economic arenas. Initially, the 37th President received rave reviews when he nominated the Black conservative Arthur Fletcher to Secretary of Labor and the well respected Moderate Republican Senator from Maine, Margaret Chase Smith, to the position of Transportation Secretary. However any hopes that President Reagan would be some type of freedom rider for Justice soon became dashed. Reagan showed a relative libertarian approach when it came to desegregation in the South. Strategically, the gipper knew he had to count on the votes of conservative White Democrats to win the 1972 election, and that if he took any hard-line to enforce desegregation, he might very well loose the South to either the Democrats or even more likely another third party run by George Wallace. If it was one thing Reagan was adamantly opposed to school busing, and the President made sure to tell voters on his position especially when he was on the stump during the 1970 congressional elections. President Reagan and his policy of Benign Neglect suggested to him by his HUD Secretary Daniel Patrick Moynihan via memo that “the issue of race could benefit from a period of 'benign neglect'. The subject has been too much talked about....We may need a period in which Negro progress continues and racial rhetoric fades." This policy soon proved to be wrong as the summers in Northern Cities remained Hot during Reagan’s 1st term as the influence and power of Black Nationalist groups continued to strengthen. President Reagan and his Attorney General Rhodes would use every means necessary as given to them by the federal arsenal in order to hush the voices of dissonance in the minority populace. On the ERA, Reagan became the target of many women’s groups for not coming out openly of supporting it after its passage through Congress in 1971 and for keeping his “Leave it up to the States” policy.

Finally, On the Final Frontier, President Reagan made it very clear during the ’68 campaign that he would be enthusiastic about NASA and promised an expansion for the Space Program. On July 19, 1969, astronaut Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong became the first humans to walk on the Earth's moon, while fellow astronaut Michael Collins orbited in the Apollo 11 command module. Reagan made what has been termed the longest-distance telephone call ever made to speak with the astronauts from the Oval Office. With his approval rating floating around 70%, a possible Republican take over of Congress in the ’72 election due to gains made in ’70, Vietnam technically won, and a string of successful Apollo missions to the Moon…The 60 year old President declared that he would seek reelection on July 4th, 1971. Also within the speech, Ronald Reagan announced that he would be sending to Congress a bill which would allow for an expansion of NASA’s budget in order to pay for NASA Administrator Thomas Paine’s ambitious plan that called for the establishment of a lunar base and a massive space station in Earth orbit before the end of the 1970s, culminating in a manned mission to Mars as early as 1981. With a rejuvenated NASA, tolled into the costs of continual aid to the South Vietnamese, and the creation of the TERFA system, the American People experienced on of the largest tax hike in history…but President Reagan was able to reassure voters that if reelected that “Relief will soon be on the way, because America’s future rests in a thousand dreams inside your hearts.”
 
Goldwater at the UN, yet Nixon and Kissinger still open Red China and sign Salt? You don't think someone would resign first?

Moynihan at HUD while Friedman is treasury sec. and Freidmanite policy is being implemented? You don't think that wouldn't cause Moynihan to resign?

Also, Tower gives up the only GOP senate seat in the old confederacy (apart from Thurmonds, I think) for Interior?

Moynihans 'Benign Neglect' memo in OTL was merely spin, it didn't have anything to do with hands-on policy; anyway, a President Reagan who expressly opposed busing and actively validated 'states' rights' rhetoric more than Nixon (who OTL mostly relied on his promise to Southern whites that he wouldn't appoint any Warren-civil-rights-liberals to SCOTUS to generate goodwill) isn't going to have Pat or Margeret in his cabinet long. (I take it the Gipper isn't going to support majority-racial congressional districts, as Nixon did.)

Yet, it was an addition put into the bill which guaranteed an Annual Income to sweeten the deal for liberals in order to kill Social Security and Welfare

Guaranteed minimum incomes and the death of Social Security; big asks, terribly big asks.
 
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foreign policy

I agree that the proposed Reagan cabinet needs work, but if some of Nixon's foreign policy people are around, then rapprochement with China may be doable, and could be used possibly to lock up victory in Vietnam.
 
Goldwater at the UN, yet Nixon and Kissinger still open Red China and sign Salt? You don't think someone would resign first?

I thought placing Goldwater as Ambassador of the UN, would be pretty plausible...considering how JFK pretty much did the same thing with Adali only a few years before. Its a smart move politically, as it is someways a reward for the old Conservative, as he pretty much launched Reagan's Political Career. That way, People couldn't say that Reagan was just a figure head and that is was actually Goldwater calling the shots if he placed the Arizona Senator within his Cabinet. I also like to think with Reagan's communication skills, he would be able to tell Nixon and Kissinger to "Let me try to win this war, and you can do what ever you wish with foreign affairs." Because you have to remember that Reagan is balancing himself on a very fractious coalation, and inorder to govern effectively he will have to shift a little towards the center(At least on foreign Policy). So in reality, this President Reagan would be a polar opposite of OTL President Nixon, in that to be able to have more control over Domestic issues, he leaves the Foreign Policy to the experts(Abrams, Nixon, Kissenger and to a lesser extent Goldwater)

Moynihan at HUD while Friedman is treasury sec. and Freidmanite policy is being implemented? You don't think that wouldn't cause Moynihan to resign?

I think with Pat having more Power as HUD Secretary instead of Counselor of Public Affairs as he was under Nixon, he would be willing to put up with Friedman. You have to understand that Moynihan was a staunch advocate of Guranted Annual Income: see below

With the assistance of Urban Affairs Council secretary Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Nixon created the Family Assistance Plan. FAP called for the replacement of bureaucratically administered programs such as Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Food Stamps, and Medicaid, with direct cash payments to those in need. Not only single-parent families, but the working poor would qualify for aid. All recipients, save the mothers of preschool age children, would be required to work or take job training

So just think of Reagan's TERFA System, is just a bigger with FAP with the NIT rolled into it that's all. I think if any two people could get something like that done and do it right...It would be Friedman and Moynihan.

Also, Tower gives up the only GOP senate seat in the old confederacy (apart from Thurmonds, I think) for Interior?

I think, a conservative like Tower would jump at the chance to be in such a Bold Cabinent like Reagan. He would be fairly young at the time of the 1969 Inauguation(Only around 44), so he might see the chance of more national exposure for interior secretary might boost his chance's to run for the Presidency down the road;)

Moynihans 'Benign Neglect' memo in OTL was merely spin, it didn't have anything to do with hands-on policy; anyway, a President Reagan who expressly opposed busing and actively validated 'states' rights' rhetoric more than Nixon (who OTL mostly relied on his promise to Southern whites that he wouldn't appoint any Warren-civil-rights-liberals to SCOTUS to generate goodwill) isn't going to have Pat or Margeret in his cabinet long. (I take it the Gipper isn't going to support majority-racial congressional districts, as Nixon did.)

Yeah, your probably right about Margaret if it would be anyone to resign from the cabinet position(Although she was a pretty staunch supporter of the War in Vietnam) it would be her. Im not sure about the majority-racial congressional districts though...Ill have to do some research on it and get back to you.



Guaranteed minimum incomes and the death of Social Security; big asks, terribly big asks.

I think it could be done, especially since Friedman and Moynihan have some actual power and clout ITTL to get it passed. Thanks for the interest Magniac, and I hope this helps to clear things up for ya.
 
I agree that the proposed Reagan cabinet needs work, but if some of Nixon's foreign policy people are around, then rapprochement with China may be doable, and could be used possibly to lock up victory in Vietnam.

Thanks for the reply Wendell, I do agree that Cabinent is a bit shaky as any team with as many egos as ITTL's. Reagan pretty much let's Nixon have his way with Foriegn Policy as Secretary of State. But I am interested in hearing some more information on possibly using China or Japan to lock up an actual victory in Vietnam because all though ive pretty much winded the war down with the succeessful Abrams strategy, I just don't know how a peace treaty might break down.
 
Thanks for the reply Wendell, I do agree that Cabinent is a bit shaky as any team with as many egos as ITTL's. Reagan pretty much let's Nixon have his way with Foriegn Policy as Secretary of State. But I am interested in hearing some more information on possibly using China or Japan to lock up an actual victory in Vietnam because all though ive pretty much winded the war down with the succeessful Abrams strategy, I just don't know how a peace treaty might break down.

Red China and Red Vietnam did not always get along, even in the 1970's. In exchange for an improvement in relations, perhaps the Americans would get the Chinese on board with a peace in Vietnam that preserves South Vietnam.
 
Red China and Red Vietnam did not always get along, even in the 1970's. In exchange for an improvement in relations, perhaps the Americans would get the Chinese on board with a peace in Vietnam that preserves South Vietnam.

Good looking out Wendell, Ill do some further research on this subject to see if I can't work into the TL somehow.
 
Additions and Corrections: First Term Adjustments

Secretary of State: Henry Kissinger
Secretary of Treasury: Milton Friedman
Secretary of Defense: John Tower
Attorney General: Spiro Agnew
Postmaster General: Winton M. Blout
Secretary of Interior: James A. Rhodes
Secretary of Labor: Arthur Fletcher
Secretary of Agriculture: Robert Dole
Secretary of Commerce: George W. Romney
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: William Scranton
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Secretary of Transportation: Cliff White


Ronald Reagan delegated the issues of how to organize his high profile cabinet to his Chief of Staff, and Deputy Chief of Staff…Edwin Meese III and Michael Deaver. During the first term, The “Dynamic Duo” would come to handle the briefing of the President as well as really holding the fractious coalition of egos together. In the foreign policy arena, Reagan had originally offered the job of Secretary of State to former Vice President Nixon, who turned down the offer and that he just wanted to return to “His Practice and act like the ’68 bid never happened. So the 37th President went for the next best thing and nominated Rockefeller advisor Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State. Following the example of Jack Kennedy before him, Ronald Reagan appointed failed 1964 Republican nominee, the same man who jumpstarted his political career, and Arizona Senator…Barry Goldwater to become Ambassador to the UN. Reagan would also reward Texas Senator, John Tower for his staunch support for the War in Vietnam with the appointment to Secretary of Defense. Together these three men, or as they were called the “Troika” would become the face of Reagan’s foreign policy dubbed Rollpolitik by American Journalists. Rollpolitik would still be mainly concerned with eliminating communism in countries where it had not taken place but with more practical considerations before acting on operations.

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Rollpolitik and the Troika would show its effectiveness almost right away in its dealings with the Soviet Union and Red China. Henry Kissinger knew that if it was one thing that Ronald Reagan wanted to be done on Foreign Policy was to turn the Soviet Union “To the Asheap of History.” He outlined that this could best be done by fighting the Soviets on three fronts by allowing a decrease Soviet access to high technology and diminish their resources, including depressing the value of Soviet commodities on the world market; increase American defense expenditures to strengthen the U.S. negotiating position; and force the Soviets to devote more of their economic resources to defense. Kissinger argued this could best be done by reopening talks with China, which Reagan was at first adamantly against but eventually came around to the idea, as it soon became evident that any true Peace treaty with North Vietnam would have to involve China in some way. In February 1972, President Reagan and Sec. Kissinger traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai in China for talks with Chinese leaders Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai. Reagan's trip was the first high-level contact between the United States and the People's Republic of China in more than twenty years, and it ushered in a new era of relations between Washington and Beijing. That crowning achievement was dwarfed, by Reagan strong opposition to détente was show several weeks later, in May 1972, Reagan as advised by his Secretary of State, visited Moscow for a summit meeting with Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and other Soviet leaders. Although a healthy discussion between Brezhnev and Reagan was reported, as both of the old leaders traded argument against argument with one of another. Yet no official deal was made on Strategic Arms Limitations or Anti Ballistic missiles, they both came to an agreement that the Mutual assured destruction can not be the only solution and that other methods of defense against Nuclear War and the Destruction of Human Civilization must be put in place.
 
including depressing the value of Soviet commodities on the world market

An interesting idea. I suppose this might mean that Reagan might consider, say, finding non-oil based energy sources on par with Star Wars of OTL: starve the Evil Empire with solar, nuclear, and wind power.
 
Will it later be said that "Only Reagan could have gone to China"? :p

Probably so, I just think the major difference ITTL, is that unlike Nixon who saw restoring relations with China as a Golden Oppurtunity. Reagan really had to be talked into it by Kissinger by saying it could help end Vietnam and Bring down the Soviets...So by telling him what he wanted to hear.
 
An interesting idea. I suppose this might mean that Reagan might consider, say, finding non-oil based energy sources on par with Star Wars of OTL: starve the Evil Empire with solar, nuclear, and wind power.

Yeah it's way to early to even think about a Program like SDI(Ronny just funnels his Space energies into a renewed Nasa, that hopes to get a man on Mars by the early 80's). But yeah, I don't want to spoil anything but I think your on the right track:D
 
I'm not sure that Rhodes would be the man to have running the Interior department. There's a tradition of people from west of the Mississippi River being made Secretary of Interior.
 
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