Plausibility Check/WI:Strong United Provinces/Argentina?

In OTL, the precursor to Argentina, the United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata, fell into petty infighting and civil war after it's independence. later, it was reformed into the Argentine Confederation, and later the Argentine Republic.

Later, Argentina would become one of the most developed, industrialized nations in the world. It enjoyed the second highest immigration rates in the world, surpassed by only the obvious: The United States. but would soon fall to corruption, instability and brutal dictatorships.

Is it plausible for the United Provinces/ larger Argentina to survive, and become a respectable regional power in South America? Perhaps, even a being a great power? If so, what is a plausible POD date?











(sorry if low quality, long time lurker's first post)
 
I feel an interesting POD would be avoiding the execution of Manuel Dorrego. Here's how it went:
Manuel Dorrego was a loudmouthed army officer during the independence war who ended up exiled (due his loud mouth, IIRC) and, after a while (which, IIRC, included getting arrested by piracy by the British in the Caribbean and getting tortured) went to the USA during the late 1810s/early 1820s and ended up admiring the American political system. He returned to Buenos Aires during one general amnesty and went straight into politics. He could be called one of the first populists. He was a staunch federalist, campaigned against restricting the voting franchise and was in talks with the other governors about agreeing on a federal constitution.
In the meantime, Argentina (well, Buenos Aires, really) got involved with a war against Brazil and, as a consequence, the so-called president Bernardino Rivadavia ended up forced to resign. Dorrego was appointed governor of the province of Buenos Aires and saw to the end of the war (which resulted in Uruguay's independence).
He attempted to unify the country under a federal republic, but the returning army, led by unitarian officers couped him and he ended up executed.

The problem is that I'm not sure how to avoid Dorrego's defeat - he had hastily raised levies against a trained, well led army. One thing I've pondered some years ago was to prevent the rift between General San Martin and the government of Buenos Aires, but that's a tall order.
If, however, San Martín isn't branded a deserter by the central government because of his... uh, desertion, his prestige and capacity would mean he's put in charge of the army that goes to fight Brazil. That shouldn't change the war much, though. Argentina would should still get a land victory, but the Brazilian naval blockade would impede Argentina from exploiting that victory.
But, under different leadership, the returning army wouldn't rebel. So, by the last half of the 1820s, Argentina would be united under a constitution and a government type which can be accepted by all the provinces except the Buenos Aires business elite - but if that business elite can't match a trained army loyal to the central authority... well, getting that is still a long shot. San Martin didn't want to fight in internal wars and Dorrego would need to be very careful regarding which officers he appoints in whatever passes for an army, as well as maintaining a sound intelligence apparatus to prevent serious armed uprisings.

Longshot as it is, it avoids a lot of bloodshed and can speed up Argentina's development - to a point. Technological advances won't be sped up by a centralized, less violent Argentina.

Large scale industrialization, specially competing with the USA, is probably out of the question, though. Argentina had too little population to create a strong domestic market, couldn't really afford to openly challenge Britain (say, with strong tariffs to protect a nascent industry) and has many key resources (coal, iron, oil, bauxite) spread too far away from both each other and the main centers of population - Germany wouldn't be what it is today if the closest iron deposits to the Rhur were located east of Warsaw instead of along the Rhine and the countryside leading to them was mostly uninhabited.

But still, a more stable Argentina which starts with a stronger tradition of actual voting including something close to universal male suffrage and a political culture based on political meetings instead of beating the opposition should develop into a far more prosperous and maybe stable country.
 
Sorry for being very late, but is it plausible for Dorrengo to, by sheer luck, to kill Juan Lavalle (commander of the Unitarians) ? Would Lavalle's army panic and flee? what then? If Dorrengo could keep things together, Perhaps Rosas' chances of becoming leader are slim...

Remember, Dorrengo, although he had troops with little to no experience,had a numerical advantage (2000 to 600), and he chose the battlefield (Navarro)...

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batalla_de_Navarro
 
Or maybe it would be best for him to refuse to present battle and to keep eroding Lavalle's forces away over time while waiting for additional reinforcements, either from Rosas or from other provinces.
 
hmm... this is a very reasonable thing to do, especially since Rosas had 9,000 troops in tow. Furthemore, Rosas had told Dorrengo to wait: http://www.elortiba.org/dorrego.html (VERY loose translation)

"On 1 December 1828, Buenos Aires Lavalle occupied with his troops. Dorrego heads south of the province and asks for support for Juan Manuel de Rosas, then commander of campaign. Rosas advised to go to Santa Fe and requested support Estanislao Lopez, but decides to confront Dorrego Lavalle. The forces of both collide in Navarro. The governor is taken prisoner and ordered the winner, without any grandeur, dies shot on December 13. The decision shudders to the capital and the provinces."

Perhaps if Dorrengo was not so headstrong he would have listened to Rosas' advice he would have had a fighting chance against Lavelle...
 
juanml82,
isn't the coal of fairly poor quality? I've read that most of South America is lacking in both quantity and quality. It mostly moot for the first half of the 1800s as most of spanish america had little capital, enthusiasm, education, or means for any real industrialization. Argentina didn't really get going til the wheat revolution on the Pampas, and while some of that delay was due to stability, the wheat revolution probably can't be pushed up too much no matter how stable the country is. farming/rail technology needed for the revolution isn't ready til the 50's, and I don't know if there's enough demand that early anyhow. it takes a while for change from ranching/extraction economy mindset to hey, let's all become farmers and industrialists.
 
juanml82,
isn't the coal of fairly poor quality? I've read that most of South America is lacking in both quantity and quality. It mostly moot for the first half of the 1800s as most of spanish america had little capital, enthusiasm, education, or means for any real industrialization. Argentina didn't really get going til the wheat revolution on the Pampas, and while some of that delay was due to stability, the wheat revolution probably can't be pushed up too much no matter how stable the country is. farming/rail technology needed for the revolution isn't ready til the 50's, and I don't know if there's enough demand that early anyhow. it takes a while for change from ranching/extraction economy mindset to hey, let's all become farmers and industrialists.
Honestly? I didn't even know about the coal quality until I've read your post. There are coal mines in the Western Argentine Patagonia, but steel mills in Northwest Argentina use nearby iron ore and trees to make steel. Those mills started to operate in 1945. Before they were built, Argentina produced exactly zero grams of steel per year. And you can check the distances between "coal in the SW", "iron in the NW" and "most people in the center-east"
 
juanml82,
isn't the coal of fairly poor quality? I've read that most of South America is lacking in both quantity and quality. It mostly moot for the first half of the 1800s as most of spanish america had little capital, enthusiasm, education, or means for any real industrialization. Argentina didn't really get going til the wheat revolution on the Pampas, and while some of that delay was due to stability, the wheat revolution probably can't be pushed up too much no matter how stable the country is. farming/rail technology needed for the revolution isn't ready til the 50's, and I don't know if there's enough demand that early anyhow. it takes a while for change from ranching/extraction economy mindset to hey, let's all become farmers and industrialists.

I don't know about Argentina, but I know for sure that the brazillian coal that is found in the south of the country and very close to Argentina is almost useless...
 
If your interested in Argentina's coal production, here it is:
https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/argentina/coal/
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1241/Chapter 2-Argentina.pdf


fig1.jpg

Argentine Coal Reserves
argentina-mineral-map.jpg

Argentine Mineral Resources
(http://www.mapsofworld.com/argentina/argentina-mineral-map.html)

Further Information on Argentine mining:
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2013/myb3-2013-ar.pdf
Simplified_world_mining_map_1.png

World Resource Map
world-coal-deposits-map.jpg

Coal Deposits of the World
Although Argentine coal reserves are... lackluster, Argentina has quite impressive oil fields. Even if coal is the only option, Argentina still is better off then most of it's neighbors in the coal department.


Argentine coal is overwhelmingly lignite coal, a sooty, but usable coal. Not to good for the environment...
 
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No reason they couldn't; heck, they could still be a middle power and arguably a competitor to Brazil even with a PoD at the start of the 20th century. Argentina and Chile were considered rising first world nations before they started falling to despotism.

As for the particular events involved with it? I'm not particularly sure, although the idea of the region being federalized from the start does hold some merit. Is there possibility of bring Chile into the nation then, or at least the Atacama? It still would retain its west coast port, though I don't know if it would march against Peru for the rest of Atacama...

Eh, that's getting ahead of things.
 
Is there possibility of bring Chile into the nation then, or at least the Atacama? It still would retain its west coast port, though I don't know if it would march against Peru for the rest of Atacama...


A Chilean annexation, although possible, is very very unlikely, since Chile already has a coherent national identity by the time of the likely POD date of 1828. Even before then, Chile was never part of the Viceroyalty of the Río de la Plata, which Argentina claims direct succession to. Therefore, Argentina cannot come up with some mumbo-jumbo that they rightfully should have the country. This probably doesn't rule out annexing some of OTL Chilean Patagonia, though. An annexation of the Atacama, however difficult, is probably more justifiable.

I can imagine though with a more powerful Argentina that Chile, Uruguay and maybe Paraguay will become economically and politically dependent to Argentina. Then Argentina can exploit the countries resources and grow it's industry and status. "Soft Power", if you will.
 
Hello,

I have thought about creating a TL based on Dorrego fleeing with his militia to Santa Fe instead of fighting in Navarro, which led to his execution OTL. Is anyone interested in this, and how does the writing flow?


Prelude:

My dear Angelita: At this point I intimate that within an hour I die. I do not know why; but divine providence, which I trust this critical moment, so wanted. I forgive all my enemies and beg my friends not to give any step in relief that has been received by me. My life educates these gentle creatures. I am happy, because you have not been accompanied by the unfortunate Manuel Dorrego.”


-Manuel Dorrego writing to his wife, Angelita , on the day of his execution. 1828. OTL.


From Lander’s World Cyclopedia, 4th Edition. (1978, Durrington Press, Hartford, Connecticut.)


DORREGO, MANUEL: (June 11th 1787- July 23th 18--) Platan [1] statesman,soldier and writer who served as the third President of the United Provinces (1829-1838). Principal author of the Platan Constitution of 18--, Dorrego would preside over the end of the Primera Guerra Desunión (First Disunity War), reform the fractious Federalist [2] Party into the Partido de la Federación, (Party of the Federation)...


...Dorrego, born on June the 11th, 1787, to wealthy Portuguese merchant Jose Antonio do Rego and his Platan wife Mary Ascension Salas, Dorrego was educated at El Real Colegio de San Carlos (Royal College of San Carlos), and later at Real Universidad de San Felipe (now the University of Chile). After he graduated with a degree in law, he was one of the first supporters of the May Revolution. Dorrego later joined the Army of Peru, and fought with distinction during the critical victories of Salta and Tucumán. Dorrego would be an early actor on the nascent Platan political scene, as an avowed Federalist. Exiled by his political enemy Juan Martín de Pueyrredón, Dorrego would live in the United States from 1816 to 1820. This would have important consequences on Dorrego’s life, affirming and inspiring his own Federalist views. Dorrego would return to the United Provinces with the fall of Pueyrredón. When returning to the United Provinces, Dorrego would publish a newspaper criticizing the Dorrego, not much later, would embark on a trip to the north of the United Provinces, where he would meet El Libertador....





From The River of Silver: Dorrego, Federalism and the Early United Provinces
by James Henry (1980, Darren University Press, Baltimore, Maryland )


When Dorrego arrived at Potosi on a cool July morning in 1825, he was nominally there to inspect her impressive (if somewhat depleted) silver and tin mines. However, it was no secret that what Dorrego’s main purpose in being at the Villa Imperial [3] was to meet a legend of a man: Simón Bolívar. Dorrego met El Libertador a month prior to the declaration of independence of Bolivia, at a ramshackled casita at the edge of the city. Bolívar was excited at the opportunity to meet someone from another liberated state, whilst Dorrego was just as enthusiastic to meet someone of such great importance. Although Dorrego was a Federalist and Bolívar a Centralist, the meeting left Dorrego deep and newfound respect for Bolívar. He would write letters praising El Libertador, feeling that he was the only man that could unite the disparate states against Brazil. Dorrego also absorbed some of Bolívar‘s philosophy about a united Latin America, in the sense that there must be a united front against imperialism. This seemingly inconsequential footnote would have momentous consequences later on...


[1] TTL Argentine. Derives from the Rio de la Plata. The term “Argentina” will be later assigned to the Buenos Aires province.

[2] OTL Federales.

[3] Nickname for Potosi.
 
Some more which I have written:

From Lander’s World Cyclopedia, 4th Edition. (1978, Durrington Press, Hartford, Connecticut.)


GUERRAS DESUNIÒN: (Spanish: Disunity Wars) A series of three civil wars fought in The United Provinces from 1816 to 1820, 1828-1831, and 1833-1836. The Guerras Desunión would start shortly after the nation’s independence and divide the United Provinces into bitterly opposed factions. , Originally a conflict between Platan political movements, the Unitarianists and the Federalists, the Primera Guerra Desunión (First Disunity War) (1816-1820) was at foremost a low level conflict. Ultimately, Federalist backed League of the Free Peoples (Liga de los Pueblos Libres) ultimately triumphed over the over the Unitarianist Supreme Directorship, during the pivotal battle at Cepeda. For the next eight years an illusion of peace settled in the uneasy United Provinces, but tension flared up after the heavily Unitarian Constitution of 1826 fell through, pushing the country once again into civil war. The Segunda Guerra Desunión (Second Disunity War) (1828-1831)would begin with the deposition of Federalist governor and future President Manuel Dorrego, and end with the with the Treaty of Córdoba. In the Segunda Guerra Desunión, the Unitarians under Lavelle would briefly occupy Buenos Aires before being defeated by Dorrego and Juan de Rosas at the Battle of Monje. The Unitarians would retreat to west after the loss of Buenos Aires, finding support with sympathetic general José María Paz. Together, they formed the Unitarian League (Liga Unitaria), to oppose Dorrego and de Rosas...
 
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