Plausibility check: Poland in the Axis

[BlairWitch749]

Just gauging plausibility for a future tl

What pod's do you think would be necessary for Poland to see Russia as the biggest threat to its national security and be willing to ally with the Germans in order to follow this idea

 

[BlackWave]

Absolutely not. Hitler was always going on about lebensraum and avenging Versailles, so the Poles would have to be absolutely insane. Change that first.

 

[The Vulture]

Germany was clearly a bigger threat to Poland, and they knew it. If you have a POD that somehow results in a fascist, Nazi-friendly Poland and Poles designated as honorary Aryans somehow, it just might work.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

What if they just give the Danzig Corridor back? Perhaps in exchange for secrete promises of Russian terroritory?

Just a little compared to the whole schebang could still way make up for the loss on the western border.

Perhaps with weaker British and French assurances...

Or some kickass diplomatic moves on someones part either in Nazi Germany or Poland.

 

[BlairWitch749]

What if they just give the Danzig Corridor back? Perhaps in exchange for secrete promises of Russian terroritory?

Just a little compared to the whole schebang could still way make up for the loss on the western border.

Perhaps with weaker British and French assurances...

Or some kickass diplomatic moves on someones part either in Nazi Germany or Poland.

This is sort of what I had in mind... Hitler did state publicly that he wanted a strong Poland as a buffer to the Soviet Union (remarkably like Stalin in '44) I was thinking that a more right wing Polish government could trade the corridor and Silesia for territory in the Ukraine and Bellaraus?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Can't see Poland and Germany as allies with the Corridor issue. If someone else than Hitler had lead Germany in WW2, Germany might have just reannexed lost WW1 territory and inserted a Axis puppet government in Poland. Thus there would have been an Axis Poland.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Corbell Mark IV

TWhat if they just give the Danzig Corridor back? Perhaps in exchange for secrete promises of Russian terroritory?
Just a little compared to the whole schebang could still way make up for the loss on the western border.
Perhaps with weaker British and French assurances...

Out of the question. An ultra-right wing government in Poland would have been the nationalists and they didn't like anybody not-Polish (and even some Poles too). Even moderate politicians in Poland weren't particularly fond of Germans because of the partitions, German claims to territories Poles considered Polish and German economic war with Poland after WWI. Also, no Polish government ever would have traded the richest and most industrialized parts of Poland, inhabited by Poles (they were plurality or even majority there), already in Polish hands for a territory in Soviet Union which Poland would have needed to conquer first.
Actually, Hitler suggested something like that by his envoys: Goering, while visiting Poland, mentioned to Polish officials that an access to the Black Sea is as good as access to Baltic Sea. Poles ignored him. They followed Piłsudski's politics to keep equal dystanse from Germany and USSR, since an alliance with one of them meant ceratin war with the other - a war in which nd would have been minor partner.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Originally posted by Corbell Mark IV


Out of the question. An ultra-right wing government in Poland would have been the nationalists and they didn't like anybody not-Polish (and even some Poles too). Even moderate politicians in Poland weren't particularly fond of Germans because of the partitions, German claims to territories Poles considered Polish and German economic war with Poland after WWI. Also, no Polish government ever would have traded the richest and most industrialized parts of Poland, inhabited by Poles (they were plurality or even majority there), already in Polish hands for a territory in Soviet Union which Poland would have needed to conquer first.
Actually, Hitler suggested something like that by his envoys: Goering, while visiting Poland, mentioned to Polish officials that an access to the Black Sea is as good as access to Baltic Sea. Poles ignored him. They followed Piłsudski's politics to keep equal dystanse from Germany and USSR, since an alliance with one of them meant ceratin war with the other - a war in which nd would have been minor partner.

Is there anything the Russian could do that might change their mind about that (maybe slaughtering Japan or nationalist China or Romania?)

 

[Commissar]

Just gauging plausibility for a future tl

What pod's do you think would be necessary for Poland to see Russia as the biggest threat to its national security and be willing to ally with the Germans in order to follow this idea

Doable, that is after a hell of a lot of arm twisting. Question is what would the Poles want for the Corridor. Their only port is in it and they paid a lot of money to develop it.

There in lies the rub. The Poles may agree to a Danzig union but if Hitler doesn't offer a port and substantial money, which he doesn't have having taken out what amounts to three mortgages on his country, the Poles are not going to sign any deal.

Nor is it of simple matter of handing the Poles Lithuania in the deal. Stalin won't like such a deal.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Doable, that is after a hell of a lot of arm twisting. Question is what would the Poles want for the Corridor. Their only port is in it and they paid a lot of money to develop it.

There in lies the rub. The Poles may agree to a Danzig union but if Hitler doesn't offer a port and substantial money, which he doesn't have having taken out what amounts to three mortgages on his country, the Poles are not going to sign any deal.

Nor is it of simple matter of handing the Poles Lithuania in the deal. Stalin won't like such a deal.

Stalin not liking the deal is a given but part of the premise of what I am thinking about... it is going to be an anti russian alliance... could giving them Memel in return for Danzig work?

 

[nimbletoes]

Rule of thumb; my neighbours are my enemies, my neighbours' neighbours are my friends. Poland had Germany to the west, Soviet Union to the east, and after 1938, German-ruled Czechoslovakia to the south. Where would the Poles look in Europe to find allies? Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium were too small to stand up to an attack by Germany; Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania couldn't be trusted; Austria was in the German camp, obviously; Switzerland and all of Scandinavia were neutral; Greece and Yugoslavia were out of the question; there were only France and Britain as potential allies, neither of whom were much use to Poland in the event.

 

[wormyguy]

Hitler actually did offer Poland an alliance - Poland would get Lithuania, Belarus, and the Ukraine in exchange for the Danzig corridor, free reign in the rest of Russia, and some form of corridor between Germany and its newly-captured Russian territories. Poland refused because their leaders made the (correct) assumption that such a scenario would make Poland a German client, and that the Germans would not keep their word.

 

[nimbletoes]

Poland did control a vast swathe of territory in western Russia in the 18th Century, before they began being mutilated by their neighbours in the Partitions; possibly, at a pinch, the Polish government might have been willing to help Germany in order to get those territories back. However, Poland may have invaded Russia in 1939 with the blessing of Germany and the promise of German backing, only to then have the GHC effectively turn their backs on the Polish war effort by taking on western Europe in 1940, in order to reach the Atlantic coast and control the whole of Europe. In that case, Poland is left to take on the Soviet Union on its own, with the Polish armed forces as they were in 1939; not a good prospect for victory.

Alternately, if as on OTL the Germans managed to take over western Europe relatively quickly, they could have left those territories in the hands of occupation forces and turned their attention to helping the Poles in the East.

Alternately again, if the Germans and Poles had agreed to launch a mutual invasion of the USSR in 1939, the Germans might have been quite happy to leave western Europe to its own devices, merely placing a defensive force along their border with France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. With Switzerland and Scandinavia neutral, and with Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria and Czechoslovakia essentially in the German camp, the Germans and Poles could have concentrated their attentions on the USSR, and had an a war based entirely in eastern Europe.

 

[thrashing_mad]

Just gauging plausibility for a future tl

What pod's do you think would be necessary for Poland to see Russia as the biggest threat to its national security and be willing to ally with the Germans in order to follow this idea

As far as I know Soviet Union was regarded as biggest threat by Poles during inter-war period, which was reflected in military doctrines of Poland. Alliance with Hitler is impossible IMO - he would demand some territory ('corridor'), and Poland would never accept such demands.

 

[King Thomas]

The problem is...Hitler hates the Poles and thinks of them, both privately and more or less publicly too, as inferior and just one step above Jewish people.The Poles know that,so there is no way they will ally with him.

 

[Blue Max]

Just gauging plausibility for a future tl

What pod's do you think would be necessary for Poland to see Russia as the biggest threat to its national security and be willing to ally with the Germans in order to follow this idea

This doesn't seem terribly complicated. The issue is primarily the insanity of Germany in the first place. If Germany is more introverted and the Soviet Union more extroverted, a Polish-German alliance could form.

If we are willing to consider different Soviet and German leadership, we could definitely see a Polish-German alliance. If someone like Trotsky was running the Soviet Union and opportunistically invading his neighbors, I'd think a German-Polish alliance would be forced unless Germany was being run by an equally insane leader.

 

[ZachScape]

When I read this thread, I was going to be a smart-ass and say something along the lins of Poland in but Germany out. Instead, I went through my ~100 pages of bookmarked maps to search for these two:

Silent War
-Magnificate

Mitteleuropa
-Highlander

Just make the Prague Pact or Paris Pakt, respectively, the 'Axis'.
PoD- Hitler stopped speaking to Mussolini because he didn't like his girlfriend...

 

[usertron2020]

Munich Appeasement

Hitler actually did offer Poland an alliance - Poland would get Lithuania, Belarus, and the Ukraine in exchange for the Danzig corridor, free reign in the rest of Russia, and some form of corridor between Germany and its newly-captured Russian territories. Poland refused because their leaders made the (correct) assumption that such a scenario would make Poland a German client, and that the Germans would not keep their word.

Got it in one, Wormyguy. The psychological makeup of the 3 powers determined that the outcome was preordained. Hateful Nazis. Paranoid Soviets. And yes arrogant Poles. Even an honest Pole (If you get three beers in him) will admit they are the world's WORST negotiators. The oldest of Polish traditions is that in a negotiation you simply dig in your heels and say:"This is our position, let us know when you agree!". But to be fair, what could you expect from Hitler? Especially after Munich. And the Soviets themselves considered Eastern Poland to be natural Soviet territory stolen in the Brest-Litvosk Treaty. But to be fair to the Soviets, the Great Soviet Encyclopedia also admitted that while the rural areas were Slavic the cities were Polish(These people were relocated after WWII to Danzig-Gdansk and Silesia).

Poland was between the Devil and the deep blue sea. No alliance with either the USSR or Nazi Germany would be worth the paper it was printed on.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

Hitler actually did offer Poland an alliance - Poland would get Lithuania, Belarus, and the Ukraine in exchange for the Danzig corridor, free reign in the rest of Russia, and some form of corridor between Germany and its newly-captured Russian territories. Poland refused because their leaders made the (correct) assumption that such a scenario would make Poland a German client, and that the Germans would not keep their word.

Wow,that's a hell of an offer.

Hmm, perhaps if the Poles didn't have, or didn't trust the British and French pledges.

Or guessed correctly that if the Germans invaded and WWII broke out that helping Poland would be beyond the abilities of the British and French.

After all things really didn't work out for them OTL.

So they figure that dealing with a Germany bogged down for years in Russia is preferrable to be occupied.

Maybe have dual PODs of more "reasonable" Germany leadership, say perhaps even Hitler, thinking ahead, treats the Slovaks with kid gloves.

And/or weaker British or French promises.

I must admitt the idea of WWII opening up with a Germany invasion of Russia appeals to me.

When Nazis and Communists kill hear other, everyone else wins.

Although the long term ramifications could be bad.

Never want the Nazi to last long enough to get the Bomb!

 

[gougeaway]

Poland in Axis

...is not very likely unless you remove the big m.o. from Nazism - racial superiority.

There's a scenario in 3rd Reich Victorious called, "The Little Admiral" that I really like. In it Hitler joins the Kriegsmarine in WWI on the urging of Raeder. Raeder helps him overcome his latent anit-Semitism and racism and things follow from there. Essentially, in this story we have a Hitler who is focused on revenge against the Western Allies (mainly the UK) and not focused on Lebensraum and killing the Jews and Slavs.

So, if you had a scenario where you could somehow remove this racial hatered from Hitler and the Nazi party (ASB??) then you might get Poland on really good terms with Germany, especially if it meant a group effort to destroy Communism (hmm, interesting)

..but its pretty close to ASB to separate Hitler and the Nazis from the main focus of their ideaology.