Plausibility Check: A German Purchase of Either Luxembourg or Suwalki Governorate?
- Thread starter CaliGuy
- Start date
The Dutch king failed, and not only was the concept of Italy not as strong as the concept of France or Germany, the Italians were just trying to get France on their good side so that they could snag Rome. Plus, the alliance with Germany and Austria seemed to show Italian interest in trying to get back that land at a later time.
CaliGuy
Banned
The Dutch King only failed due to Prussian opposition, though. As for Italy, you certainly have a good point; however, I would like to point out that Russia would acquire a decent amount of money for Suwalki (money which can be used to improve and strengthen Russia). Plus, Russia could reconquer Suwalki from Germany in the future with the help of its alliance with France.
Likely the only reason why Luxemburg didn't end up a part of Germany, is because Bismarck didn't find it necessary. Bismarck was not even for the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine. Just change that.
Germany can buy it easily with the war indemnity from France. Plus Northern France is still occupied till the war indemnity was payed otl. That is a good Window to buy it. The Dutch king can be offered to continu to be grand duke of Luxemburg, while Luxemburg joines the German Reich has a bundesland. Include the same offer has the French gave in the 60's and het will likely accept it.
No Great power would be against it, only France. But they are in a bad position in Early 1870's. The rest are allies of Germany or don't care. France was politically very isolated at that time(no allies).
Germany can buy it easily with the war indemnity from France. Plus Northern France is still occupied till the war indemnity was payed otl. That is a good Window to buy it. The Dutch king can be offered to continu to be grand duke of Luxemburg, while Luxemburg joines the German Reich has a bundesland. Include the same offer has the French gave in the 60's and het will likely accept it.
No Great power would be against it, only France. But they are in a bad position in Early 1870's. The rest are allies of Germany or don't care. France was politically very isolated at that time(no allies).
Still, it would do one thing that nobody has mentioned: It would make England more likely to meddle in European affairs. Considering that both sides were terrified of foreign intervention, a Prussian Luxembourg could be enough to convince England that Germany is a threat.
The Germans could buy it, but would the Germans have enough to give to Russia to make it worth it? Germany would probably rather go after all of Poland in a war rather than spend an exorbitant amount of money on one lil province only for the Russians to march on Berlin 20 years later because they paid for their army.
CaliGuy
Banned
German Kaiser Wilhelm II already (rightly or wrongly) gave Britain that impression even without that, though.
Good point; indeed, why pay a lot of money for this province if you believe that a general European war is inevitable? I mean, if there was a less paranoid German leadership, this might not have been an issue; however, our TL's German leadership became very paranoid about the Franco-Russian alliance by 1914!
CaliGuy
Banned
Your claim about Bismarck and A-L appears to be inaccurate. However, in any case, point taken.
OK; understood.
Also, though, what about the Suwalki Gubernia?
It still would make British intervention in continental affairs much more of a possibility than what anyone was comfortable with.
I mean, they had reason to. A full strength Franco-Russian alliance could beat England or even America.
Considering that Britain didn't do squat when Prussia annexed the entirety of Hanover, cleved off a large chunk of Denmark, and crushed Austria, I'm dubious about the claim that they were worried about Britain's opinion at the time. Britain is not the boogeyman than looms over the continent that everyone is afraid of. I don't see how a peaceful purchase of a territory that was already considered in Germany's orbit (Zollverein), at least economically, or a piece of Poland would cause great stirs in London.
It could be seen as a cumulative thing. Now that Germany has more or less taken over the German areas of the world, and yet they still have a massive military, that means that they are coming for someone.
CaliGuy
Banned
Or they could have a large military to protect themselves from various potential threats--such as a Franco-Russian alliance.
CaliGuy
Banned
Eh ... I'm not so sure about that.
Yes; certainly!
On land? Probably; however, both Britain and the U.S. require time to build up their armies.
Massive army. As long as it stays that way, it is no threat to Britain no matter how large it is.
CaliGuy
Banned
Great point! Of course, Britain did historically worry about the balance-of-power in Europe.
Except apparently when Prussia took a giant dump all over the balance of power during the 1860's. There has to be a reason for this otherwise that whole Britain must maintain the balance of power rhetoric is all just a bunch of malarkey.
Prussia defeated Austria and its allies much quicker, and they were certainly no pushovers. But yes, France being defeated so handily was a quite a surprise, though no one was willing to come to France's aid. Bismarck is to thank for that, as well as all the trouble that Prussia got up to during this period. Seriously, I still cannot fathom how he was able to get Prussia into a position where it fought most of its neighbors and annexed enormous amounts of land leading to the creation of Germany and not get dogpiled in the process.
He intelligently took advantage of the fact that these powers all thought of Prussia as a "lesser" power, it was only after Prussia slapped France around that they realised Prussia was serious business and by then who was going to challenge them? Certainly not France they just lost, Austria? Not without serious backing from another major continental power, they knew full well that they couldn't match the Prussians anymore, Russia? Why would they? They had been fairly chummy with the Prussians for a long time now, wanted their aid In suppressing the Polish and had no real conflicting interests with them, it wasn't until the Prussians chose the Austrians over the Russians that Russians had any reason to go against them.
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The easiest solution for Suwlaki is for Prussia to get it at Vienna. After all, Russia gained huge swaths if both Prussian Partition and Austrian Partition territories after the Napoleonic wars. I don't think it would be that difficult for Prussia to end up getting Suwlaki back. The only issue becomes what don't they gain in the West for it.