With a 1900 POD can India’s economy develop as successfully as China did otl? Or is this considered ASB? Both countries have similar populations yet Chinas GDP is around 6 times greater than that of India.
PC: India as rich as otl China
- Thread starter sirjackalot
- Start date
Exactly. Partition of India and really bad economy policy were these which effectively damaged Indian economy and stopped all of potential boosts.
So how would/could this have been delivered?
An earlier move towards Dominion status?
A road to independence where a relationship of equals is fostered between unpartitioned India and Britain/the Commonwealth and later the US so OTL flirtation with Moscow is butterflied and it becomes the workshop of the world a la OTL China but decades earlier, servicing those western nations eager for cheap goods?
An unpartitioned India that is a decentralised confederation, allowing all of its cultural/linguistic/religious identities room for expression?
An earlier move towards Dominion status?
A road to independence where a relationship of equals is fostered between unpartitioned India and Britain/the Commonwealth and later the US so OTL flirtation with Moscow is butterflied and it becomes the workshop of the world a la OTL China but decades earlier, servicing those western nations eager for cheap goods?
An unpartitioned India that is a decentralised confederation, allowing all of its cultural/linguistic/religious identities room for expression?
I had made a post related to it in another thread, I am copy pasting and editing it a bit here and posting -
United India that is Strong Economically and Militarily -
- Let's start with the obvious, ML does not gain power and is seen as a fringe religious party like how Hindu Mahasabha was, with Congress being the one leading the independence charge for all Indians regardless of religion, other important PODs would be Jinnah staying in London and Congress supporting War efforts in WW2. Along with that Bose staying in India could also mean Congress would have diverse set of leadership rather than Nehru and Co. Once the war ends, India is given its independence, probably even a year earlier without all the negotiation with Partition and Pakistan being going around.
- Government structure would be more different than people discussing here. One big difference would be instead of the proposed Weaker Center and Stronger State, the Central Government would actually be much stronger than the states, even than OTL India Or Pakistan, bordering on unitary republic rather than federal republic. This would allow for quicker decision making and weaken the states with any different aspirations. This would also mean the bigger states would be cut down and divided, such as Punjab, Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, etc. In order to make sure no state becomes too powerful and the center remains supreme
- Language and script also comes center stage. In order to decide what language must be used and in what script it must be used remains paramount. Eventually it is decided that Hindustani would be written in Devanagari as the official version but Nastaliq would be allowed as well in some states at some capacity, Other Indian languages can be written, either in one or both and Hindustani would become the language of communication between states. Hindustani/Hindi/Urdu would be a much, much easier and superior form of inter state communication than English ever would be. This means India has a two language policy where local language along with Hindustani is learnt by all
- All Princely states are integrated rather peacefully after talks and there is no real dispute regarding any princely state, the only places that are in dispute are Portuguese India and Gwader by Oman.
- Religious laws are abolished instead of remaining like how it was the original intention. This means Personal laws, economic laws and other laws pertaining to religion are abolished and even Blasphemy laws are removed after a while, despite this being rather minor difference, This also has the effect in which many religion based organizations are banned and India as a whole operates on borderline Lacite in terms of secularism instead of the farce that is in OTL. During the 70s-80s, when the movement for religious sites for Hinduism began gaining traction for restoration of temples in Ayodhya, Mathura and Varanasi, instead of kicking it down the road only to explode in the face of leaders, the then leaders take a very pragmatic and realistic view of things and try to solve it as fast and possible. After investigation, all three sites are shown to be previous Hindu temple sites and are given to Hindu temple, though there are protests regarding this, nothing to OTL without OTL Islamism.
Now let us look at its effects in Cold War -
- India becomes Independent a year earlier in 1946 at January 26, the day Poorna Swaraj was announces in 1930. Being the first nation to be independent since the World War and now the poster child for independence along with second largest population in the world, it has a long of optimism, hope and a wish for a bright future.
- India still adopts a policy of Neutrality, because despite its poverty, India saw and still sees USA, Soviets among others as peers and not superiors, sure they might be poor now but India will try to reach their level as fast as possible. As such no bases for anyone in India despite constant clamoring by both sides
- Due to a much more Expanded Congress, Nehru and left wing faction do not take hold, but are in harmony with the right wing faction as well, lead by Rajaji. India does adopt a form of license raj, but it only pertains to foreign industries in India. For Indians and Indian industries, they have little restriction and are allowed to grow without the excessive red tapism. Foreign industries can also set up shop in India, but only if they partner with an Indian firm, which is much easier in TTL
- CCP Still wins, takes over Tibet and later Dalai Lama comes to India. India protests here instead of remaining silent due to its much stronger position than in OTL, something that irks the Chinese and Mao and as such relations remain tense. Later on in late 50s or early 60s, A war is fought, but this time India wins decisively without Pakistan to occupy their attention, more pragmatic foreign policy and much stronger industrial capacity. China and Mao especially is humiliated and India is now seen as the preeminent power of Asia.
- Eventually Oman hands over Gwadar without a fight or asking India to pay for it, Portugal does decide to fight and loses predictably like OTL with Salazar throwing a fit. India now is completely united and without any colonial holding, but it also means that both Soviets are angry for war with Chinese and USA is uncomfortable with India now just flexing it power
- India by 60s could have its Nuclear weapons, Perhaps even collaborating with UK in order to do so or doing it on its own but without all the Indo-Pak wars, its attention at nuclear power would remain firm and much easier to grasp
- Afghanistan remains normal, nothing extraordinary happens. Zahir Shah comes to India for medical operation in 1978 and leaves soon after, Daud Khan does not even think of coup, fearing Indian retaliation, who like Zahir for his calm headed approach towards the Afghan Border and him being personally well liked in Delhi
- Sri Lanka, which came to the brink of war, is finally bought to stability after an Indian intervention in order to prevent any civil wars. A Compromise is reached, where both Tamil and Sinhala is to be taught to Everyone and a Common script is to be introduced in order to ease the country, as such the Sri Lanka Civil war is avoided.
- Bhutan is strictly told not to expel any minorities or India will take "Actions" which translates to annexing them, Bhutan does not comply and is annexed like Sikkim. Sikkim too is annex due to similiar fears along with Chinese Invasion.
- Nepali royal family is living happily, especially with the integration of its economy with the rising juggernaut of India and allows the growth of its own economy, Nepal infact richer than India on per capita basis due to selling Green energy to India and taking advantage of its religious tourism
- Myanmar still remains a wreck, but North East is much, much more stable due to India being actually connected to them instead of the Chicken's neck in OTL and as such it much better off, It might even mitigate Rohingya genocide and India will be in a position of strength to stop it if needed unlike in OTL
- Iran and India do cooperate, especially regarding any Baloch rebels, but Iranian revolution were not related to factors in Subcontinent, so it might still happen, though Since it a Shia Theocracy, not a Sunni one, its effects in India would be less. India might infact choose to help financially or even militarily to Iran's shah including intelligence reports in order for him to not be overthrown, and might even triple team with Iraq and Afghanistan and Invade Iran in order to restore the Shah though that is unlikely.
- China gets a mixed bag, for one Mao is probably sent off sooner due to loss to India, which would be a major military loss unlike in OTL, thus avoiding the Cultural revolution, but without the Cultural revolution, China might never reform like it did under Deng. Meaning China is poorer or outright collapses, though they might initiate reforms like those in India
- USSR collapses at mid 90s, with even more of a pathetic death, without Afghan war it lifespan is no doubt added but it does not really help it in anyway. It dies with a whimper with Afghanistan remaining unconnected to it death
- India becomes much more powerful as once industries do start to globalize, India is seen as the ideal location due to democratic nature, preexisting industries and lack of any other alternatives.
- As such by OTL 2020s, India is actual superpower here, not some aspirational one with a 20-25 Trillion Dollar Economy and a extremely strong navy in Indian ocean. Infact there would a form of treaty between India and USA that allows for relations between the navies and allowing USA decouple from Indian Ocean as it recognizes India has taken its place at the top dog(Or whale ?) in Indian Ocean
myr
Banned
this will make india even more poor no partition means civil war it will intensify islamism and hindutva the former because of lack of independence and the latter because of more muslims in india. It is bound cause a civil war because soldiers of British Indian army who had loyalties to Pakistan went during partition but without partition they are Indian army. They will resent lack of independence and personal law along with centralization with removal of mosques as state being the last straw
islamism existed since islam existed lack of partition will only intensify it
jinnah didn't pull out hindu muslim tensions out of thin air they existed since middle ages when India got a sizable population of muslims earlier removal of mosques will only intensify it
Pakistan didn't divert India it lost because it was weaker tham china
United India even if it remains democratic would be ideal for outsourcing because it can not stay competitive in wages skyhigh inflation and reducing minimum wage is political suicide. Companies would southeast asia as they do now
For reasons above India becomes even poor , unstable and probably more balkanized
Adoption of Capitalism + Rejection of socialism + good policies + democratic government+ competent people
I believe it's socialism dat held India back, if they open up sooner after independence it's plausible as they can be da world's factory instead of china
I believe it's socialism dat held India back, if they open up sooner after independence it's plausible as they can be da world's factory instead of china
Maudoldu00
Banned
Does earlier ascendacy of Shashtri would make India Economy better? I mean even though he is a socialist he acknowledged that india cannot have a regimented economy.
I don't think Bose would be much different to Nehru in terms of economics. Apparently he admired the Soviets and wanted a synthesis between Communism and Fasicm. So I think he might be even be more conservative on that front.
Economically it would have helped as he would have preferred more pragmatic economic policies. Politically it would have made sure Nehru does not take the complete control of the Congress allowing for more diverse range of leadership
I mean why are you assuming that? Bose was pretty solidly a socialist and economics was one of the things that he mostly stuck to the party line on to my knowledge. Their was a reason he was able to work with Nehru for so long they actually agreed on things. He also admired the Soviets and straight up advocated a command economy like theirs(Nehru meanwhile to my knowledge never wanted anything more than a mixed economy where the Public Sector made up the largest section) so I think he may be less pragmatic if anything.
Also Bose was not well liked by the majority of the higher ups in the party. Seriously when he was elected the entire working committee resigned as they couldn't bear to work with him that combined with his very fraught relationship with Gandhi makes the odds of him becoming Indias Prime Minister aren't that likely.
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Not realĺy, as states will still have a choice for their own script as well. Tamil Nadu could very well use Tamil and Hindi
The main reason why I bought him here is to make sure Congress has more diverse leadership and as such has different ideas and not just beholden to Nehru, allowing for more changes, Your point is valid though
myr
Banned
what do you mean by best ? it is certainly not the most plausible it is actually the least plausible
india cannot the next china and centralization is not the solution to it's problems
Why India can’t be the next China, and shouldn’t try
The worlds most populous nations are evolving along very different paths.
Well, looks like you misunderstand but the scenario I posted was one in which India had a lot of good decisions made post independence in the past. The article you posted deals with futurewhat do you mean by best ? it is certainly not the most plausible it is actually the least plausible
india cannot the next china and centralization is not the solution to it's problems
Why India can’t be the next China, and shouldn’t try
The worlds most populous nations are evolving along very different paths.www.google.com
myr
Banned
You seem to ignore that the article says that East asian model of reforms which you propesed are unfeasible in India. After liberlization India had only 1 year of double digit growth even that wss due to recovery from great recession. But China had 15 years of double digit growth all of which after it surpassed India's GDP. That's the difference
myr
Banned
7% growth cannot be sustained for 70 years economic growth is not eternal no country ever did that neither did that Indian labour
eventually becomes uncompetive. Better read the article i gave and then reply