How likely would it have been for China to develop a practical steam engine before or independently of the Western world?
PC: Chinese development of steam power
Not very likely. I'd reckon somewhere in Indiac though, but still not as likely. A combination of plentiful/cheap coal and high population density didn't really exist outside of britain and wallonia at this time. Manchuria at this time hadn't been settled by han yet and had a similar population density to Russia, but was even more undeveloped.
There are steam engines and there are steam engines. The one Watt invented was the result of systematic study of science like air pressure, invention of pressure and temperature measuring devices in the 17th century, development of precision machining... But there were earlier ideas like the one a Spaniard invented in the early 1600s to pump water out of mines.
Basic steam pumps could have been invented anywhere that had extensive mining and cheap fuel like coal, both plentiful all over China. In fact coal use originated there, and they needed lots of it to make iron. In north China iron ore and coal mines are relatively close to each other. So yes it is possible, maybe in the Ming dynasty especially if Islamic science made it to China during Mongol rule. Those pumps could get as far as steam driven bellows for iron puddling. To get that to the Watt engine though would require a scientific revolution not random tinkering.
Watt was improving the existing Newcomen’s machine which had been built upon the earlier Savery’s machine (1705) based upon the Papin’s ideas and inventions (and, as you said, the 1st working steam pump was invented by Jeronimo de Anyang in 1606). So we have a history of the steady interest and practical and scientific research and improvements). As far as China is involved, would technological progress fit into the prevailing philosophy of sticking to the traditions? Scientific base was, AFAIK, absent and the eunuchs were not exactly the “technocrats” (neither were Confucian bireaucratists). BTW, what was a social place of the “industrialists” (if any) in the Ming empire?
Something was, of course, possible: after all the first steam-powered mechanisms had been known even in the Ancient Greece. But, as you noticed, serious development would need a scientific backup.
Since the Greek aeolipile there were other toys like an alleged Persian automated steam flute in the 9th century. And in the 1500s the Ottomans used a steam powered roasting jack.
In the Song dynasty there were Confucian polymaths like Shen Kuo and Su Song but China had no knowledge of contemporary Muslim scientific advances, which would be a great POD for early industrialization. By the Ming dynasty the elites had little interest in math and science and these fields declined to the point Ming mathematicians couldn’t even read Song treatises, which is why I suggested the Mongol connection to reinvigorate science. There’s no evidence the Chinese ever heard of the aeolipile. Having a basis like that to get the ball rolling would be pretty important.
The people who could exploit that in the Ming would be the mine owners and workers themselves. For much of history China was the leader in industrial tech. As mentioned earlier first to use coal, they invented cast iron and iron puddling, and the blast furnace. By 1000 AD there were already coal fired iron puddling with water wheel driven bellows. These were no doubt innovations made by workers not alchemists. Then you have the well documented history of drilling and natural gas exploitation:
https://csegrecorder.com/articles/view/ancient-chinese-drilling
Another thing to consider, early steam engine need not be a piston engine which required precision manufacturing. Rather like the aeolipile it could be a turbine. In the 1600s the Jesuit missionary Ferdinand Verbiest presented the Qing emperor a steam turbine powered car. Look at the mechanism:
Could that engine have been invented much earlier? I think so. It could be used to power a paddle boat, a water pump, or a blast furnace impeller bellows like the one the Youtuber Primitive Technology invented with just wood and mud:
In the latter 18th Century Chinese salt miners were driving deep wells to extract saltwater. By the early 19th Century they recorded driving wells over 1700 meters deep. They were also capturing Natural Gas released by these deep wells and using it to dry the salt, rather than continue with solar evaporating ponds.
Kaze
Banned
Actually that is a way to go with it - natural gas. It is possible to run a vehicle on natural gas instead of coal or oil.