PC: Best Axis Mediterranean Situation

[Alcsentre Calanice]

Even if most of the following events are unlikely, they aren't necessarily ASB, and my question is how the war would evolve if the following happened:

1) The POD is the Italian conquest of Malta. It would happen by surprise just after the Italian declaration of war on 10 June. This is a hard one, so the Italian would maybe do best if supported by German paratroopers. Maybe the Italians could even manage to capture some British ships in the port of Malta, but I admit that such numbers are negligible.

2) After the end of the Battle of France, the French fleet supports the Italian one. However I doubt the French sailors would fight on the side of their former enemies. I think the best would be to capture the French warships, to man them with Italian sailors and to integrate them into the Regia Marina. Adapting the sailors to the new ships and training additional crew members will probably take some months, so that the ships are operational in August 1940.

3) Overwhelmed by the Italian success at Malta and the capture of the French navy, Franco reluctantly enters the war against Britain, adding the Spanish fleet to the Axis forces in the Mediterranean.

4) Gibraltar is besieged by Spanish troops. This time I suppose a surprising attack is not in the cards. I can't assess if the Spanish forces could take Gibraltar even after months of force buildup and artillery preparation.
However, could heavy artillery combined with air superiority (again supposing German and Italian help) be used to interdict British maritime traffic through the Street of Gibraltar? Remember that Axis Spain controls the other shore of the strait.

5) By Fall of 1940, the combined forces of Regia Marina (including the former French Navy) and the Spanish navy are operating in the Mediterranean against allied fleets. I wonder if this Axis fleet can achieve maritime parity against the British one.

The main British problems would be the impossibility of using the Street of Gibraltar and the Italian control of Malta. All allied shipment to or from East Asia would have to sail around Africa; and British reinforcements for their Mediterranean fleets would have to enter the Med through Suez.

6) Because of the favorable Axis situation in the Mediterranean, other nations could consider entering the war against Britain. I think of Greece and of Turkey. The Axis power could promise Greece to give them Cyprus and Turkey to give them parts of Iraq and Syria (even if that's unlikely since Turkey considered it a nation state and not a multinational empire).
Anyway, an Axis Greece would at least butterfly away the Greco-Italian war and allow the Italians to use against Egygr the ressources they needed to fight Greece in OTL.

7) The fate of Yugoslavia might completely be altered. Surrounded by Axis nations and bordering a Mediterranean Sea with a strong Axis presence, I hardly see them joining the Allies as in OTL. This means no Balkan Campaign and an earlier start of Barbarossa. Also, less German troops are tied down by the occupation of Greece and Yugoslavia.

How would the situation in northern Africa develop in such a scenario? Is a capture of Egypt and Suez possible?

How long would it take until the Allies recover from their defeats - would Torch take place in Spain to liberate Gibraltar?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Even if most of the following events are unlikely, they aren't necessarily ASB, and my question is how the war would evolve if the following happened:

1) The POD is the Italian conquest of Malta. It would happen by surprise just after the Italian declaration of war on 10 June. This is a hard one, so the Italian would maybe do best if supported by German paratroopers. Maybe the Italians could even manage to capture some British ships in the port of Malta, but I admit that such numbers are negligible.

2) After the end of the Battle of France, the French fleet supports the Italian one. However I doubt the French sailors would fight on the side of their former enemies. I think the best would be to capture the French warships, to man them with Italian sailors and to integrate them into the Regia Marina. Adapting the sailors to the new ships and training additional crew members will probably take some months, so that the ships are operational in August 1940.

3) Overwhelmed by the Italian success at Malta and the capture of the French navy, Franco reluctantly enters the war against Britain, adding the Spanish fleet to the Axis forces in the Mediterranean.

4) Gibraltar is besieged by Spanish troops. This time I suppose a surprising attack is not in the cards. I can't assess if the Spanish forces could take Gibraltar even after months of force buildup and artillery preparation.
However, could heavy artillery combined with air superiority (again supposing German and Italian help) be used to interdict British maritime traffic through the Street of Gibraltar? Remember that Axis Spain controls the other shore of the strait.

5) By Fall of 1940, the combined forces of Regia Marina (including the former French Navy) and the Spanish navy are operating in the Mediterranean against allied fleets. I wonder if this Axis fleet can achieve maritime parity against the British one.

The main British problems would be the impossibility of using the Street of Gibraltar and the Italian control of Malta. All allied shipment to or from East Asia would have to sail around Africa; and British reinforcements for their Mediterranean fleets would have to enter the Med through Suez.

6) Because of the favorable Axis situation in the Mediterranean, other nations could consider entering the war against Britain. I think of Greece and of Turkey. The Axis power could promise Greece to give them Cyprus and Turkey to give them parts of Iraq and Syria (even if that's unlikely since Turkey considered it a nation state and not a multinational empire).
Anyway, an Axis Greece would at least butterfly away the Greco-Italian war and allow the Italians to use against Egygr the ressources they needed to fight Greece in OTL.

7) The fate of Yugoslavia might completely be altered. Surrounded by Axis nations and bordering a Mediterranean Sea with a strong Axis presence, I hardly see them joining the Allies as in OTL. This means no Balkan Campaign and an earlier start of Barbarossa. Also, less German troops are tied down by the occupation of Greece and Yugoslavia.

How would the situation in northern Africa develop in such a scenario? Is a capture of Egypt and Suez possible?

How long would it take until the Allies recover from their defeats - would Torch take place in Spain to liberate Gibraltar?

There is a number of issues here

1) Italy has few assault troops (Their Paratroopers are effectively a parachuting club with no equipment larger than personal arms and no experience of 'combat drops' (many early Parachute assaults were disasters) and their 'marines' which was an army Regt not part of the Navy was about 2 Battalions worth had been colonial troops until a year or so earlier and had no legacy of opposed amphibious ops or specialised equipment etc) and Malta does have a regular garrison and is heavily fortified. The German Paratroopers have been somewhat busy at this time in Norway, NL and Belgium I doubt they would be able to support the Italians on June 10th. At this stage in the war the Italians are only capable of an Administrative landing. Basically Italy was not ready for war with Britain and France on the 10th June. It was all about a seat at the Victors table sort of thing.

2) The French Fleet was still owned by Vichy France after france's defeat and much of it was in other ports away from France so could not be seized and given the fractious nature of the various 'Vichy' leaders in those areas it's likely that very few vessels would end up working with the Axis as per OTL.

3) See 1 and 2 + what's in it for Spain - who is still recovering from its devastating civil war. If they do then Britain gets its Islands. And Portugal goes Allied.

4) See above. Swapping the Rock for Spanish Islands and starvation of Spain. Spain just might do this if Britian was already defeated. And I mean crushingly defeated - Jackboots in Whitehall and all that.

5) Cascading failure of PODs here so no. OTL Britain had already reacted by attacking French ships in multiple Ports and sinking a chunk of the Italian fleet at Taranto.

6) As far as Italy was concerned Greece was in their sphere of influence and Italy had been bullying them for over a decade - so it's more likely that as unlikely as it is is had the above PODs been achieved then Italy would be looking to invade and occupy Greece. But yes unless Hitler got greedy then German troops are unlikely to get involved - unless the Greeks defeat the Italians.

7) As above - The Balkans was in Italy's Sphere as they saw it. Yugoslavia belongs to the Italian Empire!