PC: Alternate Russian Unifiers

[AsukaEMP]

I think that Kiev is the only realistic candidate from the Ukraine, othe cities like Presmysel were too much to the west to affectively rule Russia.

After the Mongol invasions Kiev would need a miracle to recover and reunify the Rus.
Peremysl was a part of Halych-Volyn, which conquered Kiev in 1202 and was the strongest and most important successor state of the Kievan Rus during the 13th century. Prevent their collapse in the early 14th century (very easy, you just need either king Andrew or Lev II to survive whatever battle it was they both died at in 1323 iotl) and then wait for the Golden Horde to slowly disintegrate.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

The peasants still had certain rights including the right to leave to another land owner, which was giving the big land owners advantages because they could give the better terms. Which was negatively impacting the minor nobility, the main military force of the Muscovite state so this right was revoked by Tsar Boris. The screw had been gradually tightened with the system pretty much finalized by Peter I who forced all nobility to serve in the army all the time (full control of the peasants was a bonus) and reaching its strongest point during the reign of CII who was doing everything possible to guarantee nobility’s support.

If we limit the desired outcome to peasants having freedom of mobility, does that also require no Mongols or were there other ways to secure the vassals loyalty?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I don't know how Novgorodian administrative system worked but one of biggesxt problems of Polish administrtative system was that every member of Sejm had veto right meaning that one member could effectively stop any legistature even if other members of Sejm would had agreed. This effectively paralysed Poland-Lithuania.

The problems with Poland-Lithuania's system were much more deep than "liberum veto" and Novogorodian "parliamentary" system wasn't much impressive either.

 

[alexmilman]

If we limit the desired outcome to peasants having freedom of mobility, does that also require no Mongols or were there other ways to secure the vassals loyalty?

Blaming everything upon the Mongols always was a convenient excuse everywhere from Hungary to Iran. 😂

By the time of Tsar Boris is Mongols were nowhere close to Tsardom and the Tatar Khanate of the Crimea was not, unlike the PLC, a major enemy.

Surely, there was other way to secure the nobility loyalty but it was not available to the Russian rulers all the way into late XVIII. It was called “money” and the government was very short of them until CII started printing the paper money and making big loans abroad.

As you most probably know the serfdom in the PLC was quite similar to the Russian one even if the government was anything but absolutist and the Mongols hardly could be considered a substantial factor. The common thing was a military organization socially similar in both cases.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Blaming everything upon the Mongols always was a convenient excuse everywhere from Hungary to Iran. 😂

Well if everyone keeps saying it. 🤷‍♂️

Mongols burning everything to ground aside, were reforms (not abolition) in the 1770's possible for an alternate Russia or was Russia always going to be a proto-North Korea regardless of who unifies it?

 

[alexmilman]

Well if everyone keeps saying it. 🤷‍♂️

… then it is not necessarily true (because it is usually said to excuse laziness and ineptitude). 😜

Mongols burning everything to ground aside, were reforms (not abolition) in the 1770's possible for an alternate Russia or was Russia always going to be a proto-North Korea regardless of who unifies it?

The reforms always were possible, it is just that CII, being an usurper, went extra length to please the Russian nobility.

 

[Ahab]

After the Mongol invasions Kiev would need a miracle to recover and reunify the Rus.
Peremysl was a part of Halych-Volyn, which conquered Kiev in 1202 and was the strongest and most important successor state of the Kievan Rus during the 13th century. Prevent their collapse in the early 14th century (very easy, you just need either king Andrew or Lev II to survive whatever battle it was they both died at in 1323 iotl) and then wait for the Golden Horde to slowly disintegrate.

Even though, I just can't see a Russian government based in Galicia that affectively deals with Kazan or even Novogrod. It's just too far, just like how a moscovite government had to wait till 1939 to rule Galicia. And a capital in lets say Leviv would have been too vulnerable to a Hungarian or Polish attacks. So even if they unify russia the government will quickly move to the area of Moscow or something like that.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Even though, I just can't see a Russian government based in Galicia that affectively deals with Kazan or even Novogrod. It's just too far, just like how a moscovite government had to wait till 1939 to rule Galicia. And a capital in lets say Leviv would have been too vulnerable to a Hungarian or Polish attacks. So even if they unify russia the government will quickly move to the area of Moscow or something like that.

Is there any possibility for a Ukrainian Russia at all?

 

[Ahab]

Is there any possibility for a Ukrainian Russia at all?

Maybe a Kiev based one, or a southern st. Petersburg in the place of Rostov on Don will get you a southern oriented Russia.

 

[alexmilman]

Is there any possibility for a Ukrainian Russia at all?

In OTL the population prior to the Mongols was migrating from the South to North-East because the South, especially the rural areas, was too exposed to the nomadic pre-Mongolian neighbors and the North-East was relatively secure. Actually, with the Mongols positioned along Volga, most of that security had been gone but this is rather irrelevant because the Mongols supported the existing Vladimir-oriented system.

The Galitz-Wolynia suffered from the similar problems from the Western neighbors (Lituania and Hungary) and in OTL from the Mongols as well and, as a candidate, by the time it became a strong Great Princedom of Galitz it was too peripheral to the rest of the Russian principalities most of which already had been oriented toward Vladimir.

So the realistic opening for the Southern option was well before the Mongols but a prerequisite would be a complete control over the Southern steppes at least to the Don river. Theoretically, this was not impossible because the nomadic neighbors also were weak but in practice too much energy had been wasted upon fighting between the Russian princes for a meaningful conquest.

 

[ramones1986]

Either Kiev/Kyiv or Novgorod, as I thought.

On the other hand, the Xiongnu/Huns could also be possible, especially if much of its population were Yeniseian, but it would need earlier PoD (thus, an extra wank).

 

[alexmilman]

Either Kiev/Kyiv or Novgorod, as I thought.

Novgorod is just as unrealistic as Kiev even if by the different reasons. 1st, it was also peripheral geographically. 2nd, as a result of the 1st it can be protector against the attacks from the South, East and West. 3rd, for unification you need a reasonably stable dynasty with a power of its own. Novgorod’s system was minimizing a princely power and selective model pretty much prevented a powerful dynasty. The Novgorodian princes had been fighting for the local Novgorodian interests and Novgorodian Republic was not interested in maintaining a big, effective military force because this would give a prince too much power. 4th, a military class (lower nobility) was not big enough for the military effort which unification was requiring. 5th, the Russian Rurikid princes would be more than just reluctant to become vassals of the Novgorodian merchant aristocracy.

On the other hand, the Xiongnu/Huns could also be possible, especially if much of its population were Yeniseian, but it would need earlier PoD (thus, an extra wank).

 

[Kerney]

If we limit the desired outcome to peasants having freedom of mobility, does that also require no Mongols or were there other ways to secure the vassals loyalty?

Larger Cossack bands who to a great extent has an ethnogenesis out of escaped Serfs and had a good supply of arms from the Polish Lithiuanian Commonwealth.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Tver was mentioned earlier so were they the only realistic option or are there any we're not thinking of?

Larger Cossack bands who to a great extent has an ethnogenesis out of escaped Serfs and had a good supply of arms from the Polish Lithiuanian Commonwealth.

Do the Cossacks conquer Russia or Just force Russia to make concessions?

 

[Cwenhild]

If you avoid Mongol invasion, Novgorod might be able to unite Russia.

Perhaps Kiev too but not idea what kind of POD it would require.

Vladimir-Suzdal might be too possible candidate.

Well what if it had been the Mongols who united Russia? What if the Mongols converted to Orthodox Christianity also?

 

[Kaiser Tito]

What if the Mongols converted to Orthodox Christianity also?

Pretty sure the only Christianity they'd ever consider is Nestorianism.

 

[Cwenhild]

Pretty sure the only Christianity they'd ever consider is Nestorianism.

Yes but not to any large degree as they did with Islam. Three khanates converted to Islam. But what if the Russian Golden Horde had converted to Russian orthodoxy?

 

[Kerney]

Tver was mentioned earlier so were they the only realistic option or are there any we're not thinking of?


Do the Cossacks conquer Russia or Just force Russia to make concessions?

The could force more concessions. Or prevent Unification as we know it by either on their own or as part of the PLC (more likely IMHO) push East Via the Ukraine, the old Khazar territory and over the Urals.

Instead of Moscow ruling you could have it be the small state between a Sweden/Finland or Novgorod to the North stretching to the White Sea and a Kiev based, PLC allied/part of entity that effectively shields the Caucasus and is a rival for Siberia. If Moscow remains the serf based state it is, in the long term it remains loses population to the others as people flee.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

So the realistic opening for the Southern option was well before the Mongols but a prerequisite would be a complete control over the Southern steppes at least to the Don river.

That'd least to changes also further west, Pecheneg attacks weakened Slavic population in Transylvania and created space for "Wallachians" (ancestors of Romanians) to actually matter north of Danube, so if Rus' conquers southern steppes until Don pre-Mongols, the result might be at least Slavic Transylvania (although probably Catholic, not Orthodox, as they were converted by Hungarians), if not whole Romania.

 

[Forth Eorlingas]

Going back to central Russia: Moscow screw is the easy part, it only became too powerful for other Orthodox Russian principalities to overcome by the 1480s and too powerful for Poland-Lithuania alternate unifier to conquer by 1610s.

1. Moscow was far away enough from the steppe that it could avoid regular nomad pillaging that weakened Kiev, close enough to the steppe that it could be a logical point for the Golden Horde to collect tribute from Rus principalities via their vassal (unlike Novgorod) Any of the cities in the modern Central Federal District (Yaroslavl, Kostroma, Pereslavl, Tver, Vladimir, Ryazan) could have taken the same path.


2. Properly timing when to break from Mongol rule
Tver was slightly further from the steppe and Golden Horde retribution than Moscow, and at first had stronger fortifications. False confidence from this meant it was the first principality to go for independence (1327) nearly withstood the siege, but ultimately was sacked (with Moscow help) and screwed long term when the Horde gave Vladimir prince status to Moscow.
When Moscow went for independence in 1380, it also got sacked (with Ryazan help) but had a network of allies in place and a Horde distracted by Tamerlane so it recovered and sacked Ryazan.

A POD leading to more militant early 1300s Moscow rulers instead of the historical helpful vassal role Yury played —> Moscow rises first and is suppressed—>Tver unites Russia. Or Tamerlane dies early—> Horde focuses on Rus —>Ryazan helps Mongols do to Moscow what Moscow did to Tver—> with luck, Ryazan unites Russia.